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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

Archive from 15th February to 25th October 2020

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Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures to asses the level of risk in the Malvern Hills district, if there is an uptick in cases we will tell you.

How to request a test

It is important you book a test if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms. Information about how to obtain a test can be found on the NHS website. Follow this link:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

In case of difficulty you can phone the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

Please consider helping others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note that currently there is no desktop PC version.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government.

Those who sign up for the app have the opportunity to register to participate in vaccine trials.

NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the long promised NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

The app provides a means for warning people who have unknowingly been in the presence of someone who has tested COVID +ve.

25th October 2020

Summary

As the UK progresses deeper into the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, speculation in the media has been about the tightening of control measures and financial support for affected businesses following the introduction of 3 TIERs of targeted controls in England last week.

On 19th October the Welsh Assembly announced an alternative approach straddling half term - a 2 week COVID Firebreak starting on Friday 23rd October and ending on 9th November. No doubt the Welsh are banking on dampening down the spread of the virus sufficiently to prevent their hospitals being overwhelmed before New Year and Christmas being cancelled.

The Northern Ireland Assembly had already announced a 4 week COVID Circuit Breaker which started on 16th October, while Southern Ireland has announced a 6 week Circuit Breaker.

In England and Scotland targeted lockdowns are being pursued so there are now five 'experiments' running in parallel, and now it's a matter of waiting a few weeks to see how the different control measures compare.

Not to be outdone by the English, Nicola Sturgeon has trumped Boris with 5 TIERs of control in Scotland.

Worcestershire County Council Public Health has considered the current situation and the impact the closure of care homes, is having on families and residents. The decision has been taken to advise care homes that limited visits to residents can now be arranged, providing strict safety measures are in place to protect vulnerable residents.

Click to read latest Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Number of cases

The average rate of people testing COVID +ve in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  accelerated this week from 16,956 to 21,627 new cases per day. See chart below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th July to 25th October

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID cases reported by PHE has risen by 151,391 to 873,800.

In Worcestershire there have now been 5,349 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 769 on the week. The rolling average has slightly increased from 87 to 110 new cases per day.

The Reproduction Rate (R) in the county is probably not much above 1 so with a bit more effort it ought to be possible to reduce spread of the virus and avoid being moved into TIER 2.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 25th October 2020

Remember there could actually be double this number of cases if people are included who show no symptoms or have not been able to get a test.

Seventy eight cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills compared to fifty five last week.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has a new Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rates across the country. You may need to click the Experimental Release link to find the map. If you keep clicking the plus sign (+) to enlarge the map eventually you will see for example areas of Malvern, Guarlford and Madresfield; if you click each of these a box pops up which shows the number of cases in the last reported seven days, and a rolling average normalised to 100,000 population per week so rates can be compared across the country.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Recently the highest number of cases have been in the Pickersleigh Ward.

Number of deaths

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 1,250 this week to 44,896 while the rolling 7 day average has increased from 117 to 179 deaths per day; in comparison about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

Most COVID deaths are currently in the north of England and South Wales where infection rates are highest.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by about ten days.

The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 9th October is shown below.

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 9th October 2020

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 475 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 9th October, an increase of 129 on the week before. Of these 65 were in Care Homes, 31 at home, and 374 in hospital. The highest number of hospital deaths by Lower Tier Local Authority were Middlesborough 4, Blackpool 4, County Durham 7, Northumberland 6, Preston 4, Bolton 10, Bury 5, Manchester 11, Rochdale 4, Salford 5, Tameside 10, Wigan 9, Knowsley 4, Liverpool 21, Sefton 7, Newcastle 4, South Tyneside 5, Sunderland 6, Birmingham 11, Wolverhampton 4, Bradford 9, Kirklees 10, Havering 4, Newham 4, Rhondda Cynon Taf 17, Merthyr Tydfil 5, Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board 23.

The national COVID death rate can be expected to continue accelerating gently during October and November as those few patients unlucky enough to be severely affected by the second surge of the virus deteriorate. Little can be done to prevent these deaths as they relate to people who have already been infected. As Professor Van Tam says - 'they are baked in'.

However it is quite possible for the death rate to fall in December were everyone to pull together and make a more determined effort to socially distance.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 25th October 2020

Although these headline figures are not updated regularly they show a steady upward trend in recent weeks.

A particular figure to watch is the number of patients on ventilators; at the height of the epidemic in April the figure was 3,000. It should be noted that while only 25% of ventilated beds across the country are now occupied, it is reported hospitals in Coronavirus hotspots in the NE, NW, and South Wales are already approaching capacity, and all intensive care unit (ICU) beds may be filled within a fortnight.

To prevent these hospitals becoming overwhelmed it may soon be necessary to start transferring patients to the Nightingale Hospitals at Manchester (NW), Sunderland (NE), and Harrogate (Yorkshire and the Humber).

Professor Peter Horby of Oxford University said on the Andrew Marr show that up to 20% of COVID patients in hospital could die. If this is correct, the current daily admission rate of 1,142 new patients suggests a ramp up to about 230 deaths per day is possible within the next 4 weeks.

COVID patients are said to arrive in hospital 7 to 10 days after first symptoms, and either die or are discharged 15 to 30 days after first symptoms in most cases.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by up to 175,000 towards 1,050,000 cases.

In Worcestershire 900 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 90 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 1,600 nationally towards 46,500.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 2% death rate, the 769 new cases this week could translate to 15 Worcestershire deaths per week by the third week in November, but if cases are confined to younger age groups it could be less.

Looking to the longer term, based on the present exponential trajectory with deaths doubling every 10 days or so, we predict that in the worst case the national daily death rate could peak at 600 deaths per day by the end of November, but could then decline if the new tiered control measures are closely observed.

During this 'blip' the storing of bodies in temporary mortuaries and some delay to funeral services during December and early January can be expected.

The tiered control measures ought to result in a reduction of new daily cases in December with a consequential gradual fall in the daily death rate in January 2021, by which time the first vaccines may begin to come on stream for NHS staff, care workers, and the elderly.

The illustration below shows additional COVID deaths since 8th September in red and our revised (worst case) forecast of deaths in blue.

Revised forecast of second wave deaths to 30th November 2020

It is impossible to forecast further ahead as what happens during December will depend greatly on the behaviour of the British public and social mingling in November.

Advice for Seniors (unchanged)

For a second time the virus is spreading widely and there are pockets of infection across Worcestershire; we consider the risk during the next week to be approaching HIGH,  but not yet very high, for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

(Shielding is no longer advocated by the government but it is something we can do to protect ourselves either now or if the situation get worse).

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS) see note 1;

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid mingling with other households indoors where possible, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres (SPACE) keeping social contact brief (TIME) see note 2.

Hence the mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

Notes:

1) Early on in the epidemic it was advised we should not touch our face to avoid transferring virus from our hands. Difficult to do but this remains good practice in between washing hands.

2) Indoors with poor ventilation, for example at home, an invisible mist of virus can build up in the air which, unless you wear a hospital grade face mask, you will breath in should you remain in such a space with an infected person. In this situation a face covering will offer little or no protection. The likelihood and extent you get sick will depend on the density of the airborne virus and your exposure time.

It has been recommended to open windows to keep rooms ventilated, but as winter approaches, and the days get colder few of us are likely to do that - unless someone in the household is infected, and that's another story.

ARCHIVE

18th October 2020

Summary

The UK progressed further into the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic with cases continuing to accelerate but at a lower rate than last week. Now it's a matter of waiting a few weeks to see whether either the stubborn and  feckless start to obey the controls and the spread of the virus slows, or temporary mortuaries begin stacking bodies in hotspots due to lack of capacity in crematoriums.

The week started with a press briefing on Monday morning led by plain speaking Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Jonathan Van-Tam outlining the dire COVID-19 situation.

This was followed by the Prime Minister briefing Parliament in the afternoon about the simplified 3 TIER Local Levels of Coronavirus control, which relate to England only; this was followed by a briefing to the public later in the evening.

The Malvern Hills has been allocated to the lowest level TIER 1 meaning no change to present measures, but could soon be moved to TIER 2 banning meetings with other households socially indoors because of escalating rates across the county, particularly in Bromsgrove. That could make it very difficult to meet children and grandchildren for example at Christmas.

Click to go to Annex explaining the new Local COVID Alert Levels

Sadly the government has had to put up with some pushback against targeted local lockdowns. On the one hand Sir Keir Starmer has begun to call for a national lockdown or 'circuit breaker', while Andy Burnham the mayor of Manchester has been pressing to stay in TIER 2 in order to protect jobs and businesses unless the government offers better compensation in TIER 3.

A supporter of Sir Keir said on the radio quote:

Sir Kier Starmer is showing clear leadership by following the science.

Northern Ireland has started a 4 week Circuit Breaker, and Wales is considering a two week 'Firebreak' over half term.

There is continued talk of Test and Trace not being up to scratch. Though improvement seems to be needed, that alone will not completely resolve the problem of people spreading the virus who have no symptoms, unless testing is significantly stepped up. An asymptomatic case was reported in year 11 at the Chase school - see head teacher's blog dated 9th October.

The Malvern Gazette reported on 16th October that eight Royal Mail staff based at the Great Malvern delivery depot in Abbey Road are self isolating at home after being tested COVID +ve.

Click to read latest Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Number of cases

The average rate of people testing COVID +ve in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  rose slightly this week from 14,391 to 16,956 new cases per day. See chart below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th July to 18th October

The COVID Symptom Study (Zoe) and ONS surveys suggest the actual rate could be almost double.

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID cases reported by PHE has risen by 118,693 to 722,409.

In Worcestershire there have now been 4,580 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 612 on the week. The rolling average has slightly increased from 71 to 87 new cases per day.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 18th October 2020

Remember there could actually be double this number of cases if people are included who show no symptoms or have not bothered to get a test.

Fifty five cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills down 1 on last week.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has a new Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rates across the country. At the top is a slider - a grey bar with a knob on the RHS. If you drag the knob to the left you can see earlier weeks.

If you keep clicking the plus sign (+) to enlarge the map eventually you will see for example areas of Malvern, Guarlford and Madresfield; if you click each of these a box pops up which shows the number of cases in the last reported week, and a rolling average normalised to 100,000 population so rates can be compared across the country.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Number of deaths

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 852 this week to 43,646 while the rolling 7 day average has increased from 68 to 117 deaths per day; in comparison about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

Most COVID deaths are currently in the north of England and South Wales where infection rates are highest.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths In England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by about ten days.

The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 9th October is shown below. There have again been no COVID deaths in the Malvern Hills, but five new COVID deaths have been reported in the county.

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 9th October 2020

Click for England and Wales ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In all parts of England and Wales 475 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 9th October, an increase of 129 on the week before. Of these 65 were in Care Homes, 31 at home, and 374 in hospital. The highest number of hospital deaths by Lower Tier Local Authority were Middlesborough 4, Blackpool 4, County Durham 7, Northumberland 6, Preston 4, Bolton 10, Bury 5, Manchester 11, Rochdale 4, Salford 5, Tameside 10, Wigan 9, Knowlsley 4, Liverpool 21, Sefton 7, Newcastle 4, South Tyneside 5, Sunderland 6, Birmingham 11, Wolverhampton 4, Bradford 9, Kirklees 10, Havering 4, Newham 4, Rhondda Cynon Taf 17, Merthyr Tidfil 5, and Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board 23.

The national COVID death rate can be expected to continue accelerating gently during October and November as those few patients unlucky enough to be severely affected by the second surge of the virus deteriorate. Little can be done to prevent these deaths as they relate to people who have already been infected. As Professor Van Tam says - 'they are baked in'.

However it is quite possible for the death rate to fall in December were everyone to pull together and make a more determined effort to socially distance.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 18th October 2020

Although these headline figures are not updated regularly they show a steady upward trend in recent weeks.

A particular figure to watch is the number of patients on ventilators; at the height of the epidemic in April the figure was 3,000. It should be noted that while only 20% of ventilated beds across the country are now being used, it is reported hospitals in Coronavirus hotspots in the NE and NW are already approaching capacity.

The government may have acted too late to prevent these hospitals becoming overwhelmed, so it could soon be necessary to start transferring COVID patients to the Nightingale Hospitals at Manchester (NW), Sunderland (NE), and Harrogate (Yorkshire and the Humber) which have been put on alert. One wonders where they will get the nurses from?

Professor Peter Horby of Oxford University said on the Andrew Marr show last Sunday that up to 20% of COVID patients in hospital could die. If this is correct, the current daily admission rate of 924 new patients suggests a ramp up to about 180 deaths per day is possible in the next 4 weeks.

COVID patients are said to arrive in hospital 7 to 10 days after first symptoms, and either die or are discharged 15 to 30 days after first symptoms in most cases.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by at least 130,000 to 855,000 cases and possibly up to 880,000 in the worst case.

In Worcestershire up to 820 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 60 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 1,000 nationally towards 44,650.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 2% death rate, the 612 new cases this week could translate to 12 Worcestershire deaths per week by the third week in November, but if cases are confined to younger age groups it could be less.

Looking to the longer term, we are now predicting that the national daily death rate could reach 200 by the end of October and realistically 300 deaths per day by the end of November.

As an example of what that could mean, the illustration below shows actual COVID deaths since 8th September in red and our forecast of deaths in blue based on a truncated exponential series that rises less rapidly than the exponential function.

Forecast cumulative deaths to 30th November 2020

It seems possible by the end of November cumulative COVID deaths during the second wave of the epidemic could be heading towards 12,000.

Our worst case forecast is that, if the new tiered control measures are not widely observed,  there could be up to 500 COVID deaths per day by the end of November. At that point funeral services in hotspots might be overwhelmed and the Government faced with awkward questions from the Leader of the Opposition. Everyone needs to pull together and comply with the regulations to prevent that happening.

It is impossible to forecast further ahead as what happens during December will depend very much on the behaviour of the British public and social mingling in November.

Advice for Seniors

For a second time the virus is spreading widely and there are pockets of infection across Worcestershire; we consider the risk during the next week to be approaching HIGH,  but not yet very high, for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

(Shielding is no longer advocated by the government but it is something we can do to protect ourselves either now or if the situation get worse).

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS) see note 1;

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid mingling with other households indoors where possible, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres (SPACE) keeping social contact brief (TIME) see note 2.

Hence the mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

Notes:

1) Early on in the epidemic it was advised we should not touch our face to avoid transferring virus from our hands. This remains good practice in between washing hands.

2) Indoors with poor ventilation, for example at home, an invisible fog of virus can build up in the air which, unless you wear a hospital grade face mask, you will breath in should you remain in such a space with an infected person. In this situation a face covering will offer little or no protection. The likelihood and extent you get sick will depend on the density of the airborne virus and your exposure time.

It has been recommended to open windows to keep rooms ventilated, but as winter approaches, and the days get colder few of us are likely to do that - unless someone in the household is infected, and that's another story.

Annex to 18th October update

The new TIERS of control

The government has unwisely decided to call its framework of tiered controls Local COVID Alert Levels (Fig A1) not to be confused with the National COVID Alert Levels dating from the start of the epidemic (see Fig A2 below). The key thing is the former are targeted local measures.

Now the second wave of the epidemic is raging the government's strategy is to provide a simple framework of controls replacing piecemeal lockdown measures. That is not to say the new rules are so simple they can be written on the back of a cigarette packet and memorised!

The new TIERS are categorised medium, high and very high

Fig A1. Local COVID Alert Levels

Medium is for areas where national restrictions continue to be in place such as the Malvern Hills. Households can mix in groups of up to six indoors.

High is for areas with a higher level of infection where some additional restrictions are in place such as the city of Leicester. No meeting with other households either indoors or in back gardens.

Very High is for areas with a very high level of infections and where tighter restrictions are in place such as Liverpool.

Click the link below for more information:-

Local COVID alert levels: what you need to know

You can use the government postcode checker to find out what TIER applies where you live, and in areas you plan to visit.

Click for COVID Tier postcode checker

The page telling you the TIER in your area has a link to another page that tells you what you can and cannot do, including exceptions to the rules.

Local COVID alert level: medium (TIER 1)

Local COVID alert level: high (TIER 2)

Local COVID alert level: very high (TIER 3)

Additional controls can be negotiated by Local Authorities in Tier 3.

The National COVID Alert Levels are shown below. You will see broadly speaking TIER 1 maps to Level 3, TIER 2 maps to Level 4, and TIER 3 to Level 5.

Fig A2. National COVID Alert Levels

ARCHIVE

11th October 2020

Summary

The UK is now well into the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic with cases rising exponentially; or to put it another way - spiralling out of control.

The national debate this week has been about whether the virus should be left to let rip and burn itself out, in order to better protect the economy, or there should be a second lockdown to prevent hospitals being swamped by COVID patients. See our commentary at the end of this week's article.

The short term answer is likely to be more targeted local lockdowns. Either way the onus is on the elderly and medically vulnerable to continue taking care of themselves, and for health professionals to review procedures for protecting elderly patients in care homes.

Click to read Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Hopefully we can all take sensible precautions while still having fun, enjoying life and helping others.

Number of cases

The average rate of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  rose sharply this week from 9,716 to 14,391 new cases per day, but the rise could be less steep next week.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th July to 11th October

During the last week the cumulative total of UK COVID cases reported by PHE has risen by 100,738 to 603,716.

In Worcestershire there have now been 3,968 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 500 on the week. The rolling average has increased from 48 to 71 new cases per day.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 11th October 2020

Worryingly the infection rate in Worcestershire is beginning to approach that in the city of Leicester.

Fifty six cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week compared to thirty five last week.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has an interactive map showing roughly where new cases have occurred in the last 7 days. The map, which changes daily, shows many cases scattered across Worcestershire.

Click for interactive map of cases

Number of deaths

Public Health England reports the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 475 to 42,825 while the rolling 7 day average has increased from 52 to 68 deaths per day during the last week; in comparison note that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by about ten days.

The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 25th September, for all weeks of the epidemic remains unchanged, apart from one death in the district of Wychavon.

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 25th September 2020

A fortnight ago there had been very few COVID related deaths in Worcestershire since the middle of July when the infection rate was low. However the Malvern Gazette has since reported two deaths which will in due course show up in the ONS data.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 227 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 25th September, an increase of 83 on the week before. Of these 39 were in care homes and 172 in hospital. The highest number of hospital deaths by Lower Tier Local Authority were Peterborough 3, Northumberland 3, Bolton 4, Manchester 4, Salford 3, Tameside 11, Liverpool 5, Wirral 3, Newcastle 4, South Tyneside 4, Birmingham 17, Bradford 4, Kirklees 4, Redbridge, 3, Rhondda Cynon Taf 5, and Curn Taf Morgannwg University Health Board 6.

The national COVID death rate can be expected to continue accelerating gently during October and November as more of those patients unlucky enough to be severely affected by the second wave of the virus deteriorate. Little can be done to prevent this as deaths lag new cases by up to 28 days

However it is still possible for the death rate to fall in December were everyone to make a determined effort to socially distance.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 11th October 2020

These headline figures are not updated regularly so only give a rough idea of trends.

A figure to watch is the number of patients on ventilators; at the height of the epidemic in April the figure was 3,000. It should be noted that while only 15% of ventilated beds across the country are now being used, it is reported hospitals in Coronavirus hotspots in the NE and NW are already approaching capacity.

The government might be acting too late to prevent these hospitals becoming overwhelmed, so it may soon be necessary to start transferring COVID patients to the Nightingale Hospitals at Manchester (NW), Sunderland (NE), and Harrogate (Yorkshire and the Humber) which are being put on alert, and Birmingham.

Professor Peter Horby of Oxford University said on the Andrew Marr show this morning that up to 20% of COVID patients in hospital could die. If this is correct, the current daily admission rate of 641 new patients suggests a ramp up to about 125 deaths per day is possible in the next 4 weeks.

COVID patients are said to arrive in hospital 7 to 10 days after first symptoms, and either die or are discharged 15 to 30 days after first symptoms in most cases.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 110,000 towards 715,000 cases.

In Worcestershire up to 560 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 60 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 600 nationally towards 43,400.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 2% death rate, the 500 new cases this week could translate to 10 Worcestershire deaths per week by the first week in November.

Looking to the longer term, we predict that the national daily death rate will reach 150 by the end of October and, if the control measures are not strictly followed, could reach 300 deaths per day by the end of November.

What happens in December still remains in the hands of the British public (not the government).

Advice for Seniors

For a second time the virus has begun to spiral out of control. Pockets of infection are widespread across Worcestershire and there are hotspots in some areas of Birmingham; therefore we cautiously assess the risk during the next week to be approaching HIGH for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS) see note 1;

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid meeting with other households indoors where possible, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres (SPACE) keeping social contact brief (TIME) see note 2.

Hence the mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

Notes:

1) Early on in the epidemic it was advised we should not touch our face to avoid transferring virus from our hands. This remains good practice in between washing hands.

2) Indoors with poor ventilation, for example at home, an invisible fog of virus can build up in the air which, unless you wear a hospital grade face mask, you will breath in should you remain in such a space with an infected person. In this situation a face covering will offer little or no protection. The likelyhood and extent you get sick will depend on the density of the airborne virus and your exposure time.

Early government advice, when facemasks deprecated

During the first wave of the epidemic the government said facemasks, were we able to buy one, were of doubtful value. Now they have done a U turn and we have to wear a face covering in enclosed spaces or face a fine. Face coverings provide little protection to the wearer - their purpose is to reduce the spray of droplets when an infectious person speaks, coughs or sneezes.

Remember those early days when Boris said he wanted to coax people and not beat them with a stick!

Back to top

Annex to 11th October update

Commentary

Coronavirus has begun spiralling out of control, as it first did in March when a national lockdown was imposed, despite the current control measures and the government creating the NHS Test and Trace organisation. Controls may well be slowing the rate of exponential spread but in many areas are currently not enough to reduce the infection rate (R) below 1 so the epidemic shrinks.

The spread has been highest in the NE and NW. One possible explanation is rates never fell as low as those in the south and people in northern cities socialise more so it could be the NE and NW are just a few weeks ahead of rising rates in the rest of the country, as evidenced by sharply rising cases in Nottingham and Newark.

Spiralling of the virus and the spread in Students Halls of Residence has dominated the media this week but little has been heard from Ministers who no doubt are wondering what to do next. Their job has been made harder by MPs wanting more say in the control measures, and sniping from the Opposition. Ministers might consider taking a leaf out of Nicola Sturgeon's book and give more frequent press briefings so the public feel better informed.

According to a BBC Panorama programme 'Test and Trace' is performing poorly and for a long time the Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham has been calling for more power to be delegated to local Public Health Authorities who know their patch and can put boots on the ground. This has been an issue since the epidemic started - either the government should involve the local Public Health people or they should explain why not.

Both MPs and the public appear split between those who feel the virus should be let rip, while shielding the vulnerable, in order to maintain employment, and those wanting to protect the NHS from overload. MPs now want to debate and vote on control measures while the virus continues to spiral out of control stoking future deaths. Let's hope they don't dither for too long.

Sending students up to university could be said to be a pilot of the 'let rip' philosophy.

There are those such as Dr Gabriela Gomes of Strathclyde University who think the magnitude of the second wave of the epidemic could be reduced by the most vulnerable and most exposed having been taken out in the first wave of the epidemic, married with a degree herd immunity once upwards of 20% of the population has survived the virus and become immune.

Professor Anthony Brookes of Leicester University and Dr Duncan Robertson of Loughborough University talking on a late night Radio 5 chat show seemed to be suggesting more targeted evidence based controls are needed, and a middle of the road approach.

Others such as Professor John Edmunds of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Jeremy Farrar Director of the Wellcome Trust are concerned the government is acting too slowly and seemingly waiting for hospitals to raise a red flag before intervening with stricter measures.

According to the media, the PM will be introducing revised measures on Monday, but if the present controls are not working, either because they are the wrong, or people are not following them, it is difficult to see what more can be done without resorting to enforced local  lockdowns or circuit breakers such as forcing people in hotspots to stay at home.

Professor Sian Griffiths briefly spoke on Radio 5 last Friday about students spreading the virus by ignoring restrictions; the need to analyse how the virus is being spread despite current restrictions in order to devise better targeted measures to break the chain of transmission; better treatment regimes; and China joining the COVAX alliance. She did not think targeted support for the elderly while letting the virus rip was a good way to go.

Ministers are said to be considering replacing the current patchwork of controls by three levels of controls. For example:

TIER 1 - The rule of 6 and pubs closing at 10 pm

TIER 2 - Add, households must not mix indoors

TIER 3 - Add, closure of hospitality and leisure businesses, no social contact outside your household in any setting, restrictions on overnight stays away from home, no organised non-professional sports permitted or other communal hobby groups and activities, such as social clubs in community centres.

There is a danger if this is presented as a traffic light system there could be some confusion with the existing national COVID Alert levels.

Sadly there is still no public face to the Joint Biosecurity Centre - it has no website where the COVID Alert level could be displayed, makes no pronouncements, for example why the present control measures and Test and Trace are failing, giving reason to believe it could be a paper tiger like Sir Keir Starmer portrays Test and Trace.

Details of COVID-19 restrictions in Wales can be found on the website,

https://gov.wales/coronavirus

There are plenty of pages to get lost in; travel restrictions in lockdown areas may prevent you visiting friends and family in Wales. Bangor has been added to the local lockdowns.

Details of COVID restrictions in Scotland can be found on the website,

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-what-you-can-and-cannot-do/

Like Wales, there are many pages to navigate and flexibilities in the rules are explained.

Nicola Sturgeon has been the first to announce further measures to suppress the virus.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-additional-measures-october-2020/

It's all quite complicated for Seniors to absorb. Lets hope Matt Hancock can come up with a simpler set of rules!

PS: Dr Stephanie Hare who slated the first COVID Contact Tracing App seems to think the new one introduced on 24th September is OK.

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ARCHIVE

4th October 2020

Summary

The UK is now in the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic and it's possible there could be further waves before the population is sufficiently vaccinated to provide herd immunity.

The rapid acceleration of new cases seemed to be slowing earlier in the week until last Saturday when new cases double the previous day were reported; this was said to be due to delayed reporting of figures from new community testing, so it will be a few days before there is a clearer view of the extent to which COVID is either waxing or waning.

The Chief Medical Officer says COVID has been spreading unevenly across the country with hotspots for example in some university halls of residence and northern cities, while for example there remain lower levels of infection across Worcestershire.

The Scottish MP Margaret Ferrier hit the headlines on Thursday when it was revealed she had travelled by train instead of isolating after being tested COVID +ve resulting in calls for her resignation.

On Friday it was revealed United States President Donald Trump and his wife had been tested COVID +ve which could have a huge impact on the US election.

Commentators have continued to complain about the confusing variation in control measures across the UK and one has suggested districts might be assigned one of say three LEVELS of control depending on the rate of spread of the virus.

We assess the risk of Coronavirus for Seniors remains in the range moderate to high across Worcestershire.

Number of cases

The average rate of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  has risen this week from 5,816 to 9,716 new cases per day. The COVID Symptom Study assesses on 30th Sep there were likely 20,601 daily new cases, double the PHE figure.

Note: the daily new cases for last Saturday and Sunday were unusually high due to the delayed reporting of 15,841 cases caused by a technical glitch.

During the last week the cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen by 68,009 to 502,978.

In Worcestershire there have now been 3,468 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 337 on the week. The rolling average remained fairly steady during the early part of the week but then rose from 32 to 48 new cases per day.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 4th October 2020

These numbers are not insignificant and close to the old guideline for considering a lockdown of 50 cases per 100,000 per week.

Thirty six cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week, compared to eighteen last week.

There had been a small reduction in the  infection rate in the city of Leicester but numbers are creeping up again despite control measures.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has an interactive map showing roughly where new cases have occurred in the last 7 days. This has shown 5 cases in the wider Barnards Green area, 3 at Pickersleigh, some at Callow End and many cases in the city of  Worcester.

Click for interactive map of cases

Number of deaths

The cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen to 42,350 while the rolling 7 day average has increased in the last week from 30 to 52 deaths per day; in comparison note that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 18th September, for all weeks of the epidemic remains unchanged:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 18th September 2020

There have been very few COVID related deaths in Worcestershire since the middle of July when the infection rate was low. However yesterday the Malvern Gazette reported the first COVID death for many weeks in a Worcestershire hospital, and another today.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 144 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 18th September, an increase of 45 on the week before. The highest number of hospital deaths by Lower Tier Local Authority were Tameside 9, Bradford 8, Birmingham 4, Manchester 3, Liverpool 3, and High Peak 3.

The national COVID death rate can be expected to accelerate gently during October as more of those patients unlucky enough to be severely infected by the second wave of the virus deteriorate.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 4th October 2020

These headline figures are not updated regularly so only give a rough idea of trends. A figure to watch is the number of patients on ventilators; at the height of the epidemic in April the figure was 3,000.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 80,000 towards 583,000 cases.

In Worcestershire up to 350 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 40 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

During the week the number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 500 nationally towards 43,000.

Possibly there could be two or three COVID (28) deaths in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

Locally the rate of infection rose during the latter part of last week Pockets of infection remain widespread across Worcestershire and there are hotspots in some areas of Birmingham and to a lesser extent Kidderminster; therefore we assess the risk during the next week to continue moderate to high for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS) see note 1;

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid meeting with other households indoors where possible, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres (SPACE) keeping social contact brief (TIME) see note 2.

Hence the mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

Notes:

1) Early on in the epidemic it was advised we should not touch our face to avoid transferring virus from our hands. This remains good practice in between washing hands.

2) Indoors with poor ventilation, for example at home, an invisible fog of virus can build up in the air which, unless you wear a hospital grade face mask, you will breath in should you remain in such a space with an infected person. In this situation a face covering will offer little or no protection. The likelyhood and extent you get sick will depend on the density of the airborne virus and your exposure time.

ARCHIVE

27th September 2020

Summary

The UK has entered the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic which we speculate was seeded on or about 1st September 2020.

Nationally, there has been an alarming increase in new COVID cases which may have been largely caused by a small number of individuals, possibly just 0.02% of the population, flouting the COVID guidance during the late summer and Autumn Bank Holiday.

New cases confirmed by a test and deaths have now begun to double every ten days, and unless greater care is taken there could be 10,000 new cases per day by the middle of October. COVID deaths during October will be mostly amongst those who have already been infected so can't be avoided. If the data follows the present exponential curve, nationally, there could be up to 200 COVID deaths per day by the middle of October. However the death rate could potentially fall in November were everyone to pull together and follow COVID guidance.

On 21st September the Chief Medical Officer for England and Chief Scientist briefed the nation about the perilous situation, and that evening the COVID alert level was raised to 4 meaning that the epidemic is now in general circulation, and transmission is high or rising exponentially.

The next day the Prime Minister briefed Parliament and the nation on additional control measures aimed at dampening the surge in the virus (see below). In some cities where typically the rate of infection is above 50 cases per 100,000 per week more stringent local lockdown measures already apply, for example in South Wales, Birmingham and the North of England. About 25% of the population of the UK is now subject to intervention.

Although the number of daily cases confirmed by a test is now greater than at the peak of the epidemic in April, remember then there was only limited testing of hospital patients, and some commentators have suggested the real scale of the epidemic was likely ten times the number of cases reported COVID +ve in those days. On that basis the current level of infection may be only 10% of that in the worst days of the epidemic when nationally about 900 patients were dying of COVID every day.

Seniors in the Malvern Hills should continue to take care as, although the infection rate in Worcestershire is lower than hotspots such as Bolton and the city of Leicester, pockets of infection are spread across the county.

Click for Worcestershire County Council Coronavirus news

This week's additional control measures

These minor changes which are unlikely to affect most Malvern Seniors include:

• workers should work from home where possible
• all pubs, bars and restaurants must be table service only and must close at 10pm
•  the requirement to wear a face covering has now extended to staff in retail, staff in hospitality and passengers in taxis
• weddings are now limited to 15 people, funerals remain at a limit of 30 people

Click for government advice on what has changed

These measures may help but, given the disease is so infectious, it seems doubtful the present restrictions will be relaxed before Christmas should a small minority of people continue to ignore the guidance. The BBC reports a government study which suggests only18% of those testing COVID +ve self isolate, giving no cause for optimism.

The overlaying of initiatives is reportedly causing confusion and Dr Chris Smith thinks it would be far better if there was common advice covering all four nations, but little hope of that!

Watchlist

If you are thinking of travelling across the country for a 'Coronavirus holiday' you'll want to know the hotspots to avoid.

A watchlist of areas with the highest infection rates can be found in the Public Health England (PHE) National COVID-19 surveillance reports.

The number of areas requiring intervention continues to increase so clearly Test and Trace and present controls are not enough to keep a lid on the virus.

Click for BBC report on areas subject to Coronavirus restrictions

Number of cases

The average rate of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  has risen this week to 5,816 new cases per day; see graph below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 27th Sep

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 434,969.

In Worcestershire there have now been 3,131 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 224 on the week. The rolling average has increased from 17 to 32 new cases per day.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 27th September 2020

Eighteen cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week, compared to sixteen last week.

There has been no improvement in the city of Leicester despite control measures.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has an interactive map showing roughly where new cases are occurring. In the latest week reported the map shows cases in North Malvern and many areas of Worcester.

Click for interactive map of cases

Number of deaths

The cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen to 41,988 while the rolling 7 day average has increased in the last week from 21 to 30 deaths per day; in comparison note that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 11th September, for all weeks of the epidemic remains unchanged:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 11th September 2020

The good news is that there have been very few COVID related deaths in Worcestershire since the middle of July when the infection rate was low.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 99 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 11th September, an increase of 17 on the week before. The highest number of hospital deaths by Lower Tier Local Authority were Tameside 8, Salford 4, and Bradford 3.

The national death rate can be expected to creep up significantly in the next month as some of those patients unlucky enough to be severely infected by the second wave of the virus deteriorate.

In Worcestershire 530 deaths have been reported against 3,131 cases suggesting 17% fatalities. Bearing in mind there is much more testing and doctors have learnt how best to treat patients the fatality rate may have fallen to 2 in 100, so recent reports of between 100 and 200 new cases per week in Worcestershire could translate to of the order of 2 to 4 deaths per week in October.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 20th September 2020

These headline figures are not updated regularly so only give a rough idea of trends. A figure to watch is the number of patients on ventilators; at the height of the epidemic in April the figure was 3,000.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 45,000 towards 480,000 cases.

In Worcestershire up to 250 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly two dozen cases in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 350 nationally towards 42,350;  possibly there could be one or two COVID (28) deaths in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The average daily rate of infection has doubled over the last ten days and pockets of infection are widespread across Worcestershire; therefore we assess the risk during the next week to continue moderate to high for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS);

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid meeting with other households indoors where possible, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres (SPACE) keeping social contact brief (TIME).

Hence the mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

20th September 2020

Summary

This week's speculation in the media has been about the sharp upturn in spread of the virus, and Test and Trace coming under pressure.

In response the government in consultation with Local Authorities is introducing tighter controls for example in the north, where the infection is spreading rapidly, and there is talk of further measures such as CIRCUIT BREAKER should the situation worsen - the Chief Medical Officer Dr Chris Witty will address the nation tomorrow.

However it seems to us that the acceleration in daily cases during the last week has slowed slightly, especially in Worcestershire, so it may be another week or so before we truly know whether this is a ramp up to a new normal or a more prolonged surge.

Seniors in the Malvern Hills should continue to take care as, although the infection rate in Worcestershire is relatively low, pockets of infection are occurring across the district.

Click for Worcestershire County Council Coronavirus news

Watchlist

A watchlist of areas with the highest infection rates can be found in the Public Health England (PHE) National COVID-19 surveillance reports.

The number of areas requiring intervention has increased markedly this week so clearly Test and Trace and present controls are not enough to keep a lid on the virus.

Click for BBC report on areas subject to Coronavirus restrictions

About 20% of the population of the UK is now subject to special restrictions.

Number of cases

The average number of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  has risen this week to 3,679 new cases per day; see graph below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 20th Sep

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 394,257.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,907 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 117 on the week. The rolling average fell slightly from 20 to 17 new cases per day.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 20th September 2020

Sixteen cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week, compared to twenty six last week.

The situation in the city of Leicester has seemingly worsened for a second week despite local control measures, but this could partly be due to Test and Trace identifying more cases which might otherwise have gone unnoticed.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has an interactive map showing roughly where cases are occurring. In the latest week reported which is 8 - 14th September the map showed a sprinkling of cases in Malvern and surrounds, including 3 cases in Barnards Green.

Click for interactive map of cases

Number of deaths

The cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen to 41,777 while the rolling 7 day average has increased in the last week from 11 to 21 deaths per day; in contrast note that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 4th September, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 4th September 2020

The good news is that there have been very few COVID related deaths in Worcestershire since the middle of July when the infection rate was low.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 82 COVID related deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 4th September, a drop of 11 on the week before. The highest by Lower Tier Local Authority were Leicester 5 and Tameside 4.

However the death rate can be expected to creep up in coming weeks as some of those infected by the second wave of the virus deteriorate.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about COVID-19 patients in hospital.

The headline figures are not updated regularly so do not give an accurate real time picture of trends.

Headline summary of patients in hospital as of 20th September 2020

Notes: 

1) The number of patients occupying mechanical ventilation beds has already begun to increase. Though this is presently a small fraction (5%) of the peak reached at the height of the epidemic bear in mind first that hospitals have been converting COVID wards back to their previous use, probably reducing NHS capacity to deal with a second wave; secondly that the demand for ventilated beds is rising quickly.

See the next chart showing the increase in mechanically ventilated beds occupied since 1st August.

Source: Coronavirus dashboard spreadheet

2) The Patients admitted daily number in the table above was last updated on 7th September; since then the data shows that the England and Wales figure has actually 'doubled' to 248 (Scotland and NI figures still awaited).

The chart below shows that, in England, daily hospital admissions have begun rising steeply, doubling in the last 10 days.

Source: Coronavirus dashboard spreadheet

The second wave of the epidemic is now upon us so expect the government shortly to tighten control measures.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 27,500 towards 422,000 cases.

In Worcestershire about 130 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly two dozen cases in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 150 nationally towards 41,950;  possibly there could be one or two COVID (28) deaths in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The average daily rate of infection has doubled over the last fortnight and pockets of infection are widespread across Worcestershire; therefore we assess the risk during the next 14 days to be moderate to high for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding depending on vulnerability and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

The simple points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS);

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid gatherings over six, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres keeping social contact with strangers brief (SPACE).

Hence the PMs mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

If you are out and about, shops, hospitals, dentists and other establishments may ask you to sanitise your hands with hand gel.  You can carry your own alcohol based hand gel in your car or handbag in case you need to wash your hands where there are no facilities.

In the high street you may find bronze foot operated dispensers provided by MHDC.

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ARCHIVE

13th September 2020

Summary

This week, and following the Autumn Bank Holiday, there has been a sharp rise in the number of Coronavirus cases in the UK including 26 new cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Seniors should continue to shield and follow national guidance.

The BBC have reported some people have had difficulty obtaining a Coronavirus test due to greatly increased demand.

Statement by Public Health Worcestershire

On the 11th September MHDC sent out this newsletter to subscribers:-

Cases of Coronavirus are rising across our district, as well as other parts of Worcestershire.

Although we are still some way off the point where full local lockdown restrictions are needed, Worcestershire Public Health is monitoring the situation. An outbreak control plan is in place and action will be taken, if necessary, to protect residents.

It is really important we all keep playing our part to protect ourselves and each other. Please make sure you are following social distancing guidelines at all times and remember:

• Hands - wash them regularly with soap and water for 20 seconds or use an alcohol-based hand sanitiser

• Face - wear a face covering in indoor settings where social distancing may be difficult, and where you will come into contact with people you do not normally meet

• Space - stay 2 metres apart from people you do not live with where possible, or 1 metre with extra precautions in place (such as wearing face coverings or increasing ventilation indoors)

Besides local lockdowns in some parts of the country there are new control measures.

Care homes closed to visitors

Care homes across Malvern Hills District have been closed to all but essential visitors.  This is a precaution to protect vulnerable residents following a rise in Covid-19 cases. Dr Kathryn Cobain, Director for Public Health for Worcestershire said:

The decision to stop care home visits is not one we have taken lightly. I appreciate this will cause upset and frustration for some of our residents and I recognise this is very difficult for families.

Looking at the rising numbers of cases in the district, we are concerned about the welfare of our most vulnerable and the wider community. I need to protect those at risk and prevent the further spread of Covid-19. We will review this on a daily basis and will lift these restrictions when we see numbers falling again. This is a sensible precautionary measure, it is better to act now than later.

New Rule of Six

Matt Hancock is introducing a new social distancing rule from Monday 14th September in England.

From this date, it will be illegal to meet with people you do not live with in groups of more than six indoors or outdoors.

Scotland has a different version of the rule, in that it is limited to the meeting of two households. In Wales children under 12 are excluded from the count making it easier for those with large families to meet grandchildren.

Watchlist

A watchlist of areas with the highest infection rates can be found in the Public Health England (PHE) National COVID-19 surveillance reports.

The BBC has identified Bolton and parts of Birmingham as areas for concern. Locally there has been a significant rise of COVID in Bromsgrove and Wychavon, with the Malvern Hills not far behind.

Number of cases

The average number of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  rose sharply this week to 3,050 new cases per day which is more than five times the rate last July; see graph below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 13th Sep

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 368,504.

We'll have to wait and see whether this is a temporary blip caused by the August Bank Holiday, or a more serious second wave of the epidemic.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,790 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 141 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 13th September 2020

Twenty six cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week a significant increase on mid July. If this number doubles, a local lockdown could be imposed by WCC.

The improvement in the city of Leicester has been reversed.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has an interactive map showing roughly where cases are occuring in the latest week reported which is 1 - 7th September. The map shows many cases in the Malvern Hills district are now occuring in the vicinity of Great Malvern.

Click for interactive map of cases

Number of deaths

From 12th August 'PHE reported COVID deaths' are now measured across the UK as deaths that occurred within 28 days of the first laboratory-confirmed positive COVID test.

Under this new measure, the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in the UK in hospitals and care homes has risen to 41,628 while the rolling 7 day average has increased slightly in the last week from 7 to 11 deaths per day; in contrast remember that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 28th August, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 28th August 2020

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click for interactive map of deaths involving COVID-19 (updated March - July)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other parts of the country 93 COVID deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 28th August, an increase of 12 on the week before. The highest by Lower Tier Local Authority were Tameside 6, Rochdale 4, Blackburn with Darwin 3, Stockport 3, Southend 3, Betsi Cadwaladr 3.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard reports the daily count of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Daily count of patients in hospital 13th September 2020

You will see, in the last week, despite there being 21,353 new cases only 987 or so patients have been admitted to hospital (5%).

It is said hospital admissions have remained low because the disease has been mainly limited to younger age groups, however a sharper upturn can be expected in the next fortnight if infection spreads to the elderly, for example in care homes.

We speculate that daily deaths may be roughly 10% of the patients admitted daily, with a lag of two to four weeks.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 24,000 towards 392,500 cases.

In Worcestershire about 150 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 30 in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 77 nationally towards 41,710;  possibly there could be one or two COVID (28) deaths in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The figures suggest the rate of infection has begun to double every week and cases are occuring in the vicinity of Great Malvern; therefore we assess the risk during the next fortnight to be moderate to high for Seniors living in the Malvern Hills district, who should consider shielding and avoid contact with strangers; see our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are:

to wash your hands thoroughly for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS);

wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE);

avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing by 2 metres keeping social contact with strangers brief (SPACE).

Hence the PMs mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

Note the new rule not to meet socially in groups of more than six, while ideally distancing by 2 metres from members of other households; consider avoiding people commuting to Birmingham or other hotspots who might bring the infection back with them.

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

6th September 2020

Summary

There has been a concerning sharp rise in the number of Coronavirus cases in the UK this week including 9 in the Malvern Hills district of which 3 were associated with The Inn at Welland.

Although the the risk of COVID remains moderately low within the Malvern Hills we expect the situation to deteriorate so Seniors should continue to take special care.

Nationally the good news is that admissions to hospital and deaths remain surprisingly low despite the upturn in positive tests.

Watchlist

A watchlist of areas with the highest infection rates can be found in the Public Health England (PHE) Weekly Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Surveillance Report.

The following local authorities have been included in the watchlist, to quote:

Intervention:

Pendle, Oldham, Blackburn with Darwin, Bradford, Rochdale, Manchester, Bolton, Tameside, Trafford, Bury, Preston, Salford, Leicester, Kirklees, and Calderdale.

Enhanced support:

Hyndburn, Burnley, Great Yarmouth, Sandwell, Swindon, Birmingham, Breckland, Northampton, Rossendale, Stockport, Norwich, King's Lynn and West Norfolk, South Norfolk, Broadland, North Norfolk (surveillance in the Norfolk area relates mostly to an outbreak at a poultry farm.)

Concern:

Corby, Kettering, Oadby and Wigston,  Leeds, South Tyneside, Middlesbrough, Peterborough, Stoke-on-Trent, Luton.

The government has not announced the criteria for intervention but speculation in the media suggests a threshold of  about 50 new cases per week per 100,000 population.

When the national rate of infection fell to 500 cases per day in early July the disease should have petered out, but instead the rate of infection has roughly doubled every month. This is not yet exponential spread but does suggest there are large numbers of individuals and communities that are not following the control measures, either through ignorance or having tired of the lockdown. Travellers may also be bringing back the virus from abroad sparking new fires.

Increasing infections suggests quarantining and Test and Trace need to be markedly improved, local lockdowns continued, and possibly a brake put on non essential air travel.

Holiday travel

Prompted by the BBC some holidaymakers have complained about changes to the quarantine arrangements being introduced at short notice, and differing criteria in England, Wales, Scotland and NI. For example holidaymakers returning from Portugal must self isolate in Scotland and Wales but currently do not have to in England or NI.

The criteria for countries requiring self isolation for two weeks on return has not been made public, but speculation in the press suggests a threshold of greater than 20 cases per week per 100,000 population.

It is surprising the government is allowing non essential air travel when Europe appears to be experiencing a second wave of the epidemic.

Schools

Pupils returned to school this week without fuss; we'll have to wait a week or two to find out whether or not schooling can be sustained while keeping the virus under control.

It's another two weeks before students start arriving at Worcester University from across the country, and another 3 months before students return from other universities to Malvern.

Number of cases

This week the average number of new cases in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  rose sharply to 1,812 new cases per day, see graph below. This is more than three times the rate at the beginning of July and could herald exponential spread of the virus if people continue to tire of controls.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 6th Sep

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 347,152.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,649 confirmed cases of COVID-19, an increase of 75 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 6th September 2020

Nine cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week. The Malvern Gazette reports three of these cases were associated with The Inn at Welland where two members of staff and a customer have tested positive.

Number of deaths

From 12th August 'PHE reported COVID deaths' are now measured across the UK as deaths that occurred within 28 days of the first laboratory-confirmed positive COVID test.

Under this new measure the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in the UK in hospitals and care homes has risen slightly to 41,551 while the rolling 7 day average has fallen in the last week from 10 to just 7 deaths per day; in contrast remember that about 1,700 people die daily from natural causes.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 21st August, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 21st August 2020

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In other areas of the country, 81 COVID deaths were reported by ONS in the week to 21st August. The highest by Lower Tier Local Authority were Blackburn 5, Bradford 4, Barrow in Furness 3, Carlisle 2, Derby Dales 2, Dartford 2, Oldham 2, Tameside 2, Wolverhampton 2, Hackney 3, Wrexham 3, and Betsi Cadwaladr 3.

On 3rd September the Malvern Gazette reported the first COVID death in a Worcestershire hospital for a month.

Healthcare

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard reports the daily count of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Daily count of patients in hospital 6th September 2020

These figures may possibly give a better indication of the severity of any upturn in the epidemic than the headline number of new cases alone, although we suspect these figures are not updated frequently.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 12,500 towards 360,000 cases.

In Worcestershire about 75 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly a dozen in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 55 nationally towards 41,606;  possibly there could be 1 COVID (28) death in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The figures suggest that the rate of infection has tripled in Worcestershire since the beginning of July but it is still at a moderately low level. However the situation could worsen now children have returned to school, students soon arrive at Worcester University, and more time is spent indoors as winter approaches.

We assess the risk during the next week to be moderate to low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate to high for those venturing further afield in the UK depending on the area visited. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence the PMs mantra:-

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

Even MPs seem confused about the size of permitted gatherings, as we are so

click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

30th August 2020

General

Remember 'face coverings' must be worn in many indoor settings, including shops and supermarkets, so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag. Ideally have a plastic pouch to keep it in, mark the front, and where appropriate wash or dispose after each use.

The risk of COVID remains low within the Malvern Hills district.

Infection rates vary across the country being highest in the NW of England. New local lockdowns have been imposed at Oldham, Pendle and Blackburn. The government has not announced a criteria for such lockdowns but speculation in the press puts the threshold at 50 new cases per week per 100,000 population.

Last week the infection rate was half this level in Redditch and one fifth across Worcestershire. The flare up in Redditch has been attributed to a family gathering involving four or five households which may have broken the lockdown rules. Dr Kathryn Cobain, Director of Public Health for Worcestershire, says contacts are being traced and the risk to the wider community is low.

France seems to be experiencing a second wave of COVID with 7,379 new cases reported last Friday, and cases rising significantly in Spain and Germany too. Click for BBC report

Holidaymakers foolish enough to travel abroad at this time are unwittingly bringing COVID back with them and some people are ignoring the rules; for example an estimated 3,000 people are reported to have attended an illegal bank holiday rave at Banwen near Brecon in Wales.

Nevertheless, for the time being, admissions to hospital, and deaths remain surprisingly low.

Number of cases

This week the average number of new cases in the UK reported by Public Health England (PHE) on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  rose slightly to 1,224 new cases per day, see graph below. This is double the rate at the beginning of July but may be partly explained by increased testing.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 30th Aug

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 334,467.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,574 confirmed cases, an increase of 42 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 30th August 2020

Four cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week.

Number of deaths

From 12th August 'PHE reported COVID deaths' are now measured across the UK as deaths that occurred within 28 days of the first laboratory-confirmed positive COVID test.

Under this new measure the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in the UK has risen to 41,499, while the rolling 7 day average stands at 10 deaths per day.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 14th August, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 14th August 2020

The good news is no COVID deaths have been registered in Worcestershire in the last week reported while the Malvern Gazette reports there have been no deaths for 25 days.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Healthcare (new on this page)

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard reports the daily count of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.

Daily count of patients in hospital 30th August 2020

These figures may possibly give a better indication of the severity of any upturn in the epidemic than the headline number of new cases alone.

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to increase by about 8,500 towards 343,000 cases.

In Worcestershire about 40 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly a handful in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 70 nationally towards 41,570;  possibly there could be 1 COVID (28) death in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

The figures suggest that the incidence of Coronavirus has doubled in Worcestershire since the beginning of July but it is still at a low level. However the situation could worsen once children return to school, students go up to university, and more time is spent indoors as winter approaches.

We assess the risk during the next week to continue low for most Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

Looking after grandchildren in Malvern while parents are at work ought initially to be reasonably safe while the local infection rate remains low.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence PM Boris Johnson's latest mantra:

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

and our adage

'Only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

In Melbourne, Australia, where a night time curfew has been imposed, the simple message is STAY APART.

The risk of infection increases the longer is spent in the presence of an infected person and so one Australian commentator has also suggested the need for SOCIAL BREVITY.

Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

23rd August 2020

General

Remember 'face coverings' must be worn in many indoor settings, including shops and supermarkets, so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag. Ideally have a plastic pouch to keep it in, mark the front, and where appropriate wash or dispose after each use.

People flying overseas for holidays in the sun must think the COVID-19 epidemic is over but of course it is not. Traffic levels are returning to normal and most shops are open; however large gatherings remain forbidden which sadly some feel able to ignore. Consequently from 28th August the government is bringing in large fines for those organising illegal gatherings and lesser fines for those that attend them.

Hijacking of the news by the 'A' level results fiasco has lessened now that the government has agreed to the grades assessed by teachers being used without moderation by The Office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (Ofqual). The buck now passes to Universities who will have to deal with many more pupils than expected seeking places. Discussion continues about how children returning to school might affect the spread of Coronavirus. Less is being asked about the potential spread of Coronavirus within university campuses and sixth form colleges.

For a second week we detect an uptick in cases of COVID-19 in Worcestershire - even before pupils return to school.

Let's hope, if people act sensibly, Test and Trace will prevent exponential spread of the virus.

Public Health England is to be reorganised and merged with Test and Trace to form a new National Institute for Health Protection based on the German Robert Koch Institute. This process could start in September, but the change might not be fully completed until Spring 2020. No mention has been made of the once promised Joint Biosecurity Centre; we wonder if that will become part of the new organisation?

Number of cases

This week the average number of new cases in the UK reported by Public Health England (PHE) on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard'  dropped to 1,023 new cases per day, see graph below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 23rd Aug

The cumulative total of UK cases reported by PHE has risen to 325,642.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,532 confirmed cases, a concerning increase of 56 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there had been flare-ups.

Cumulative cases reported by PHE  in Worcestershire to 23rd August 2020

Three cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week, one of which was re-assigned to another district.

Number of deaths

From 12th August 'PHE reported COVID deaths' are now measured across the UK as deaths that occurred within 28 days of the first laboratory-confirmed positive COVID test.

Under this new measure the cumulative total of COVID deaths in the UK has risen to 41,429, while the rolling 7 day average has dropped to just 9 deaths per day.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 7th August, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative COVID deaths reported by ONS to 7th August 2020

Only one new death has been reported, in hospital in Bromsgrove, in the whole of the county.

Deaths in care homes represent 37% of all the COVID deaths in Worcestershire, compared to 30% across the country.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

 Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to increase by about 7,000 towards 333,000 cases.

In Worcestershire up to 60 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly a handful in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 60 nationally towards 41,490;  no deaths are likely in Worcestershire.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

The figures suggest that the incidence of Coronavirus has begun to rise in Worcestershire, a situation which is likely to worsen once children return to school, students go up to university, and more time is spent indoors as winter approaches.

We assess the risk during the next week to continue low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence PM Boris Johnson's latest mantra:

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

and our adage

'Only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

In Melbourne, Australia, where a night time curfew has been imposed, the simple message is STAY APART.

The risk of infection increases the longer is spent in the presence of an infected person and so one Australian commentator has also suggested the need for SOCIAL BREVITY.

Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

16th August 2020

General

'Face coverings' must be worn in many indoor settings, including shops and supermarkets, so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag. Ideally have a plastic pouch to keep it in, mark the front, and where appropriate wash or dispose after each use.

Discussion in the press this week has been largely diverted from COVID by the 'A' level results. Of course this year there have been no exams due to the pandemic so grades have been initially assigned by teachers; however moderation of the results by a government algorithm has led to many pupils losing university places, angry parents and angry teachers. As a public relations exercise the situation has been badly handled leading to calls for the Education Secretary to resign.

Also hitting the headlines this week has been an announcement that holiday makers returning to the UK from France must quarantine for 14 days.

It was quietly reported in the media that the government will shortly start trials of the second version of its contact tracing app, for Google and Apple smart phones, on the Isle of Wight and in the borough of Newham in London.

We detect a slight uptick in cases of COVID 19 in Worcestershire this week.

Number of cases

The average number of new cases in the UK reported by the DHSC has gradually accelerated to 1,094 new cases per day, see graph below. However the BBC reports that many of these infected individuals are in the 15 - 44 age band who do not become seriously ill, and so thankfully there has not been an associated upturn in hospital admissions.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 16th Aug

The cumulative total of all UK cases reported by the DHSC rose today to 318,484.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,476 confirmed cases, an increase of 31 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there have been recent flare-ups.

Cumulative cases in Worcestershire to 16th August 2020

Four cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week, one of which was re-assigned to another district.

Number of deaths

In recent weeks it has become apparent that classifying the deaths of all COVID positive survivors in England, long after their recovery, as COVID deaths is no longer sensible.

During the first wave of the epidemic it was found most deaths due to COVID occured within 28 days of being tested COVID positive and so, prompted by Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, the government has adjusted the figures:

Daily reported COVID deaths are now measured across the UK as deaths that occurred within 28 days of the first laboratory-confirmed positive COVID test.

The effect of this new definition has been twofold: first on 12th August the cumulative total of UK deaths due to COVID was reduced by 5,377 from 46,706 to 41,329; secondly the reported number of UK daily deaths attributed to COVID has fallen from about 53 to 12 cases per day.

The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 31st July, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative deaths to 31st July 2020

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by DHSC on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to increase by about 8,000 towards 327,000 cases.

In Worcestershire about 30 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly a handful in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of COVID (28) deaths can be expected to increase by about 85 nationally towards 41,450. To put this into context, deaths at this level are just 1% of the naturally occuring death rate.

Advice for Seniors

UNCHANGED

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

We assess the risk during the next week to continue low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence PM Boris Johnson's latest mantra:

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

and our adage

'Only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

In Melbourne, Australia, where a night time curfew has been imposed, the simple message is STAY APART.

The risk of infection increases the longer is spent in the presence of an infected person and so one Australian commentator has also suggested the need for SOCIAL BREVITY.

Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

9th August 2020 

General

'Face coverings' must be worn in many indoor settings, including shops and supermarkets, so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag. Ideally have a plastic pouch to keep it in, mark the front, and where appropriate wash or dispose after each use.

Discussion in the media this week has mostly been about pupils returning to school in September and whether this might cause a second wave of Coronavirus that could result in calls for reintroduction of a lockdown in the hospitality sector. The evidence for children being infectious is uncertain, so we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester is calling for improvements to Test and Trace, and greater empowerment of local Public Health Teams. Click to read BBC report

Click for BBC report which includes a map showing Areas on the Coronavirus Watchlist which you might want to avoid.

The risk within the Malvern Hills district continues to be low.

Number of cases

Despite showing some sign of leveling off during the week the average number of new cases in the UK reported by the DHSC has crept up to 870 new cases per day, see graph below. Some commentators have suggested perhaps this could be due to increased testing, and infection in the community could actually be falling - time will tell.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases 8th Jul - 9th Aug

The COVID Symptom Study estimates the actual number of cases could be roughly double the DHSC figure.

The cumulative total of all UK cases reported by the DHSC rose today to 310,825.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,445 confirmed cases, an increase of 19 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there have been recent flare-ups.

Cumulative cases in Worcestershire to 9th August 2020

No cases of COVID-19 were reported in the Malvern Hills this week.

Number of deaths

The cumulative number of UK COVID related deaths during the epidemic has risen today to 46,574 but the good news is the average number of daily deaths has fallen during the week to 53.

The cumulative number of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 24th July, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative deaths to 24th July 2020

The good news is that no COVID deaths have been reported in Worcestershire in the last week.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported by DHSC on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to increase by about 7,000 towards 318,000 cases.

In Worcestershire one to two dozen new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly one or two in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of deaths can be expected to increase by about 375 nationally towards 46,950. To put this into context, deaths at this level are just 4% of the naturally occuring death rate.

Advice for Seniors

UNCHANGED

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

We assess the risk during the next week to continue low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence PM Boris Johnson's new mantra:

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

and our adage

'Only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

In Melbourne, Australia, where a night time curfew has been imposed, the simple message is STAY APART.

The risk of infection increases the longer is spent in the presence of an infected person and so one Australian commentator is also suggesting the need for SOCIAL BREVITY.

Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

2nd August 2020

General

Reminder: 'face coverings' must be worn in shops and supermarkets in England so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag.

The last week started with 14 day quarantine being announced for tourists returning from Spain followed by local restrictions in the Greater Manchester area where there have been flare-ups of COVID for example at Oldham, which put a dampener on Ede celebrations.

There have been new flare-ups linked to busy pubs for example at Stone in Staffordshire and Aberdeen.

In consequence of increasing frequency of Coronavirus, further easing of the lockdown on 1st August has been postponed.

Click for transcript of PM's speech on 31st July

The Malvern Hills District Council e-newsletter of 31st July has a useful update on the situation; you have to sign up to receive e-mails on the MHDC home page.

The risk within the Malvern Hills district continues to be low.

Number of cases

Over the last fortnight the average daily number of new cases in the UK reported by DHSC has crept up to 750 new cases per day, see graph below.

New daily UK confirmed COVID cases

The Zoe study estimates the actual number of cases could be triple that, suggesting numbers could easily drift back to the worst case of 5,500 cases per day last April if the public were to relax restrictions.

The cumulative total of all UK cases reported by the DHSC rose this week to 304,695.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,426 confirmed cases, an increase of 18 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there have been recent flare-ups.

Cumulative cases in Worcestershire to 2nd August 2020

The number of new cases reported in the City of Leicester has fallen to 23 cases per day during the last week indicating the outbreak is continuing to be brought under control.

The incidence of COVID-19 in the Malvern Hills remains low.

Number of deaths

The cumulative number of UK COVID related deaths during the epidemic has risen today to 46,201 while the average number of daily deaths has stopped falling and has remained level at about 64 deaths per day over the last fortnight.

The cumulative number of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 17th July, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative deaths to 17th July 2020

There have been no COVID deaths in the Malvern Hills in the last week reported.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported by DHSC on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to increase by about 5,000 towards 310,000 cases.

In Worcestershire one to two dozen new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly one or two in the Malvern Hills district.

The number of deaths can be expected to increase by about 450 nationally towards 46,650. To put this into context, deaths at this level are just 4% of the naturally occuring death rate.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

We assess the risk during the next week to continue low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to wash your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home (HANDS); wear a face mask when appropriate (FACE); avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing (SPACE).

Hence PM Boris Johnson's new mantra:

HANDS, FACE, SPACE, GET A TEST if you feel unwell

and our adage

Remember 'only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

In Melbourne, Australia, where a night time curfew has been imposed, the simple message is STAY APART

Click for government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

26th July 2020

General

Reminder: 'face coverings' must be worn in shops and supermarkets in England from 24th July, so don't forget to carry a mask either in your car, pocket or shopping bag.

Since the start of the COVID-19 epidemic 229 cases have been recorded, amongst those living in the Malvern Hills district, and there have been 47 COVID related deaths.

The good news is that only one case has been reported in the Malvern Hills during the last fortnight.

However we need to stay alert. Cases are recorded against home addresses and so, for example, infections in workplaces in Malvern are not recorded in the total for the Malvern Hills were the sick person to commute from Hereford, Birmingham, Pershore or Worcester.

The total of 229 has dipped twice probably because historic cases were reallocated to another district. This suggests there may in fact have been 3 new confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills and there could also have been asymptomatic cases showing little or no symptoms. Hearsay is that there has been a new case on the industrial estate in Malvern Link.

The number of COVID cases on the nearby farm at Mathon in Herefordshire has increased to 134 but the outbreak appears contained. Click to read report in Malvern Gazette

A new outbreak of 14 cases miles away at Evesham Vale Growers (in the district of Wychavon) is said to have originated from workers travelling by minibus from Smethwick in the Borough of Sandwell on the western side of Birmingham. Click to read BBC report. The ITV news is reporting a COVID flare-up in Smethwick raising concerns Track and Trace needs to be improved. Click to view the ITV report. Some of the cases at Evesham Vale Growers are likely to be recorded against the Borough of Sandwell rather than Wychavon.

In summary, don't be fooled by the statistics into thinking COVID-19 has completely gone away.

The coming winter

The COVID sympton study (Zoe) academics are thinking cases could go up this winter as people spend more time indoors; and those infected could suffer more severe symptoms. Click to read article 'Is COVID-19 worse in Winter'

Reports on the BBC yesterday were suggesting obese people infected by COVID-19 were twice as likely to go into Intensive Care and 40% more likely to die than their slim cousins. Click to check your Body Mass Index (BMI) to see if you should consider losing a little weight this summer. Click to read BBC report.

The government says COVID vaccine trials are going well, but the earliest a vaccine is likely to become available is the end of this year; more advance orders have been placed for candidate vaccines.

A greater uptake of flu jabs is being encouraged this autumn in order to prevent flu and thereby reduce confusion of flu symptoms with those of COVID-19.

Number of cases

The average daily number of new cases in the UK reported by DHSC fell to a low of 543 on 8th July but has since crept up to about 660 new cases per day; the Zoe study estimates triple that.

The cumulative total of all UK cases reported by the DHSC rose this week to 299,466.

In Worcestershire there have been 2,408 confirmed cases, an increase of 26 on the week. The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there have been recent flare-ups.

Cumulative cases to 26th July 2020

The number of new cases reported in the City of Leicester has reduced from 67 to 32 cases per day during the last week indicating the outbreak is gradually being brought under control.

The incidence of COVID-19 in the Malvern Hills is currently very low.

Number of deaths

The cumulative number of UK COVID related deaths during the epidemic has risen today to 45,752 but the good news is the average number of daily deaths has fallen slightly to 65.

The cumulative number of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 10th July, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative deaths to 10th July 2020

There have been no COVID deaths in the Malvern Hills in the last week reported.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported by DHSC on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to edge towards 304,000 and the number of deaths towards 46,130.

In Worcestershire a dozen or so new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly one or two in the Malvern Hills district.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, have a pub lunch, visit grandchildren, go shopping, get a haircut, or perhaps travel further afield in the UK on holiday.

We assess the risk during the next week to be low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and moderate for those venturing further afield in the UK. See our riskometer opposite.

The main points to remember are to avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors, and continue with precautions such as physical distancing, wearing a face mask where appropriate, and washing your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home.

Remember 'only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

Click for government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

19th July 2020

General

The reporting last Sunday of a large cluster of new COVID cases on a vegetable farm at Mathon in Herefordshire was concerning. However despite reports of workers visiting Morrisons in Malvern, Iceland and Primark in Worcester, and Ledbury, there has been no evidence of the outbreak spreading into Worcestershire where just 15 new cases of COVID have been reported this week.

This week the Malvern Gazette reported that a historical flare up involving 100 COVID cases at the Avara Foods (once Sun Valley) meat processing factory in Herefordshire had been kept secret. Who knows what else has been kept hidden by others!

According to the BBC, the government is only now beginning to let Public Health Authorities know the addresses of newly reported COVID cases so local measures can be taken to minimise the spread of infection. Protecting people's data (eg GDPR) seems to have had higher priority than the public's health.

The government requires Worcestershire County Council to have a Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak Control Plan. Should you want to plough through it, here is the link:

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus

Reminder: face coverings must be worn in shops and supermarkets from 24th July, so don't forget to put one in your shopping bag.

Numbers of cases

Following easing of the lockdown, daily cases of COVID-19 have stopped dropping across the UK, with a definite leveling off of cases since the beginning of July. The UK rolling average of new cases reported by DHSC remains about 600 new cases per day, whilst the Zoe study estimates double that.

The cumulative number of UK cases reported by the DHSC rose this week to 294,792. Part of this (+842) is explained by positive tests outside hospitals in Wales being added in for the first time on 14th July.

In Worcestershire there have now been 2,382 confirmed cases, an increase of 15 on the week, but no increase in the Malvern Hills.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire and the city of Leicester where there have been recent flare ups.

Cumulative cases to 19th July 2020

Number of deaths

The cumulative number of UK COVID related deaths during the epidemic has risen today to 45,300 but the good news is the average number of daily deaths has fallen further to 69.

The Malvern Gazette reports about 305 cumulative COVID deaths in hospitals in Worcestershire, but the ONS figures which include other settings such as care homes are higher. The cumulative number of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 3rd July, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

Cumulative deaths to 3rd July 2020

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported by DHSC on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to edge towards 298,500 and the number of deaths towards 45,730. In Worcestershire a dozen new cases can be expected, and possibly one or two in the Malvern Hills district.

The spread of infection in the Malvern Hills is currently very  low compared to the flare-up in Leicester where there have been up to 70 new cases a day in the last week. Nevertheless the outbreak of now 93 cases amongst 200 vegetable pickers and packers at AS Green and Co, Mathon, three miles west of Great Malvern is a reminder that we should all continue to be on our guard.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision. Some of us, who do not have to go out to work, may feel more comfortable staying 'mostly' at home and continuing with physical distancing. Others may want to walk on the Malvern Hills, visit grandchildren, go shopping and get a haircut.

We assess the risk during the next week to be low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area; and perhaps moderate for those venturing further afield. See our riskometer opposite.

The main thing is to avoid large gatherings, particularly indoors and continue with precautions such as physical distancing, wearing a face mask where appropriate, and washing your hands thoroughly, including after handling deliveries to your home.

Remember 'only a fool breaks the 2 metre rule'

Click for government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

12th July 2020

General

There is little to report this week as we wait to see what, if any, flare-ups arise from the gradual easing of the COVID lockdown.

The Malvern Gazette reports there have been no COVID deaths in Worcestershire NHS Hospitals this week, but there has been a slight rise in new cases, although not at a level to worry about.

Slightly more concerning is the reporting of a cluster of 73 new cases in Herefordshire on a farm at Mathon on the west side of the Malvern Hills. Click for BBC report about COVID outbreak at Mathon. With a bit of luck that will be contained.

Numbers

After a steady fall, the rolling average of new cases per day has stayed close to 600, whereas the daily number of deaths has fallen slightly to 86.

The revised cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 289,603 and the number of deaths to 44,819; of these there have been 2,367 cases in the Worcestershire Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA), and 228 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) - an increase of 24 in Worcestershire and 5 in the Malvern Hills on last week.

The Malvern Gazette reports about 301 cumulative COVID deaths in hospitals in Worcestershire (unchanged), but the ONS figures which include other settings such as care homes are higher. The cumulative number of COVID related deaths reported by the ONS up to 26th June, for all weeks of the epidemic are:

The good news is there have been no new deaths in the Malvern Hills.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  to edge towards 293,500 and the number of deaths towards 45,350. In Worcestershire up to two dozen cases can be expected, and a handful in the Malvern Hills district.

Despite the increases mentioned above, the spread of infection in the Malvern Hills is still  low compared to the flare-up in Leicester where there have been reports of up to 70 new cases a day.

Nevertheless the outbreak reported today of 73 cases amongst 200 vegetable pickers and packers at AS Green and Co, Mathon, three miles west of Great Malvern is a reminder that we should all continue to be on our guard.

Advice for Seniors

The risk of infection is probably as low as it will ever be this year, so now is as good a time as any  for the adventurous to get out more subject to considering the risk and COVID guidelines. How much risk you are prepared to take is a personal decision.

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay 'mostly' at home and continue with physical distancing for the time being.

Next week the risk is assessed moderate to  low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with strangers from outside the area. See our riskometer opposite.

As the government follows its road map and steps through its stages to ease the lockdown it is becoming increasingly difficult to remember what one can and cannot do; Seniors should be sensible, and where necessary consult the latest guidelines.

Click for government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert, and continue with precautions such as washing your hands thoroughly, especially after handling deliveries to your home.

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should not delay but call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

5th July 2020

General

The rolling average of UK new cases has fallen further to 652 confirmed cases per day, from a peak of 5,400 in April, and deaths to 96 per day from a peak of 900.

Last week just 9 new cases were reported in Worcestershire and 3 in the Malvern Hills district (up 3 on the week before). Note: be aware there could be several times this going unreported.

At last the government has announced Public Health authorities are to be advised of new cases by postcode - in our opinion this should have been done from the start of the epidemic to enable outbreaks to be better controlled.

A flare up has been reported in Leicester which remains in lockdown; currently there are about 60 new cases reported each day, so best avoid Leicester for the time being.

Surprisingly we can now travel to countries on the government's approved list without the need to quarantine on return to the UK, so overseas holidays in the sun are possible again, for those prepared to accept the increased risk of catching COVID-19.

Click for UK government travel guidance

Numbers

On 2nd July the government adjusted the cumulative UK total of positive lab confirmed cases to remove duplicates which has resulted in the total dropping by 30,302 compared to last week. A further change is, from that date, County and District totals will include cases confirmed by testing outside hospital, for example by the army, whereas previously they did not.

The revised cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 285,416 and the number of deaths to 44,220; of these there have been 2,343 cases in the Worcestershire Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA), and 223 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) - an increase of 9 in Worcestershire and 3 in the Malvern Hills, on an adjusted basis, on last week - nothing to worry about.

The Malvern Gazette reports about 301 cumulative COVID deaths in hospitals in Worcestershire, but the ONS figures which include other settings such as care homes are higher. The number of COVID related deaths reported by the ONS up to 19th June are:

So far, it appears about 38% of the COVID deaths in Worcestershire have been in care homes.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Provided control measures remain effective, trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard, on the revised basis, can be expected  slowly to edge towards 289,600 and the number of deaths towards 44,800. In Worcestershire expect up to a dozen cases, and possibly two or three new cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Advice for Seniors

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay mostly at home and continue with physical distancing for the time being.

Next week the risk ought to remain relatively low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with people from outside the area. See our riskometer opposite.

As the government follows its road map and steps through its stages to ease the lockdown it is becoming increasingly difficult to remember what one can and cannot do; Seniors should be cautious and use common sense, and where necessary consult the latest guidelines.

Click for government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert, and continue with precautions such as washing your hands thoroughly, especially after handling deliveries to your home.

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should not delay but call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

28th June 2020

General

The good news is that Worcester hospitals reported no new cases in intensive care units last week for the first time in 100 days, and no new cases are reported in the Malvern Hills.

On Monday 21st June Matt Hancock, the Health Minister, said shielding of the especially vulnerable, who were advised to stay isolated at home, would be paused on 1st August, now infection is at a low level, and individuals should return to work if safe to do so. He said about 1,700 people currently have the virus - although the COVID Symptom Study estimates double that.

On Tuesday 23rd June the Prime Minister announced STEP 3 of the easing of the lockdown measures in England to take effect from 4th July. Hotels, B&B, self contained accommodation, caravan and camp sites, churches, museums and hairdressers can reopen subject to COVID secure guidance for businesses, but night clubs, indoor gyms and swimming pools remain closed. This should help families book holidays in the UK, but travel abroad is still being advised against. No mention was made of attendance at football matches and racing.

The guidance to maintain physical distancing of 2 metres from others remains, but distancing can be relaxed to 1 metre if other measures are taken to compensate.

Click to read summary of Prime Minister's statement

Click to read text of speech in House of Commons

Daily Coronavirus press briefings are to be replaced by briefings as and when required.

The BBC has reported a small outbreak of COVID at the TULIP meat processing plant in Tipton and there is an outbreak in Leicester.

It will probably be two weeks or so before it is known whether or not the street parties in London and other cities and people flocking to beaches, ignoring physical distancing, following relaxation of the lockdown, has caused new outbreaks.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 311,151 and the number of deaths to 43,550; of these there have been 1,445 cases in the Worcestershire Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA), and 139 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) - no increase on last week. The average number of UK lab confirmed new cases has slowed to  977 per day.

The Malvern Gazette reports about 301 cumulative COVID deaths in hospitals in Worcestershire, but the ONS figures which include other settings such as care homes are higher. The number of COVID related deaths reported by the ONS up to 12th June are:

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Provided control measures remain effective, trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  slowly to rise towards 317,000 and the number of deaths towards 44,200. In Worcestershire expect half a dozen cases, and possibly just one or two new cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Chart showing rise of cases since 22nd February 2020

Advice for Seniors

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay mostly at home and continue with physical distancing for the time being.

Next week the risk ought to be low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with people from outside the area. See our riskometer opposite.

As the government follows its road map and steps through its stages to ease the lockdown it is becoming increasingly difficult to remember what one can and cannot do; Seniors should be cautious and use common sense, and where necessary consult the latest guidelines.

Click for government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert, and continue with precautions such as washing your hands thoroughly, especially after handling deliveries to your home.

This is most unlikely, but remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should not delay but call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

21st June 2020

Commentary

Conversations this week have centred on how children will return to school in September, reducing physical distancing from 2 metres to 1 metre to enable the hospitality sector to restart, and the setting up of air corridors to facilitate holiday travel without the need to quarantine. Expect an announcement on these matters in the coming week.

An ONS analysis of deaths suggests the COVID death rate is higher amongst Black, Asian and Minority ethnic groups, for reasons yet to be established, but age is a much stronger risk factor. It struck us that the peak COVID death rate possibly exceeded the civilian death rate in WWII.

Yesterday the COVID Alert level was reduced to 3 meaning that although the virus is in general circulation, restrictions can be reduced. This was the recommendation of the Chief Medical Officers who are advised by the newly formed Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC). On 5th June the government announced that Dr Clare Gardiner had been seconded to the role of Director General of the Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) at DHSC to take it through to full operating capability, and that the JBC will sit within NHS Test and Trace. Currently we can find no trace of the JBC having an online presence, or prominent reporting of the COVID Alert level on a government website.

According to journalists traces of the COVID virus have been found in Italian waste water samples taken in December 2019, which suggests the virus was circulating undetected much earlier than the Chinese have admitted. Click to read BBC report.

The government and Public Health authorities are still not publishing real time information about where COVID cases are occurring on grounds of patient confidentiality, and 'not scaring the horses' but occasionally some information slips out. Matt Hancock for example mentioned outbreaks at a meat processing factory near Kirklees in Yorkshire and on Anglesey, and there are said to be further hotspots in Leicestershire.

The Malvern Hills district currently appears to be one of the safer parts of the country, now the peak in the epidemic has past.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 304,311 and the number of deaths to 42,632; of these there have been 1,441 cases in the Worcestershire Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA), and 139 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) - the same number as last week. The average number of UK lab confirmed new cases has slowed to 1,200 per day.

The Malvern Gazette reports about 295 cumulative COVID deaths in hospitals in Worcestershire, but the ONS figures which include other settings such as care homes are higher. The number of COVID related deaths reported by the ONS up to 5th June are:

The ONS has updated its interactive map showing where Coronavirus deaths have occurred. You can use the interactive map to explore the number of COVID-19 deaths by month and postcode.

Click to go to deaths involving COVID-19 - Interactive map

The breakdown of deaths in Malvern Town to the end of May is as follows:

Malvern Wells and Priory - 7

Barnards Green - 7

Malvern Link - 6

Malvern Pickersleigh - 6

North Malvern - 3

Further out in the Malvern Hills district:

Abberley - 5

Broadheath - 4

Callow End - 6

Kempsey - 3

Upton upon Severn - 1

You will see the COVID epidemic did not pass us by. If the government's assertion that the death rate is only about 1% is correct, 45 deaths in the Malvern Hills infers that possibly up to 4,500 people may have been infected in the past which greatly exceeds the 139 reported lab confirmed cases, and equates to about 5% of the district, or one person in twenty.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Provided control measures remain effective, trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected  slowly to rise towards 312,000 and the number of deaths towards 43,570. In Worcestershire expect about 15 new cases, and possibly just one or two new cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Assessment of Risk

Risk can be considered a function of the hazard and the probability it may happen. So for example if one were to visit grandchildren by train, to lower risk, one might consider travelling during quiet periods, wearing a face covering and carrying wipes and hand gel, and hope the Public Health authorities would warn head teachers of COVID outbreaks in schools and head teachers would warn parents who in turn could advise grandparents whether it was safe to visit.

The hazard of dying from COVD depends on one's sex, age and general health. Men are twice as likely to die as women; diabetes and obesity appear to be significant risk factors.

An ONS report 'Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19' gives an idea of outcome with age (see appendix A table A1. Our interpretation as a very rough guide is:

You will observe that the elderly have a much greater reason to be cautious than teenagers!

As the lockdown controls are eased it will increasingly become a personal decision how much risk each of us is prepared to take; possibly that decision could be influenced by the authorities publishing timely data on where outbreaks are occurring, but don't bank on it.

Advice for Seniors

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay mostly at home and continue with physical distancing until at least 30th June.

Next week the risk ought to be relatively low for Seniors staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing by 2 metres, and avoiding contact with people from outside the area. See our riskometer opposite.

As the government follows its road map and steps through its stages to ease the lockdown it is becoming increasingly difficult to remember what one can and cannot do; Seniors should be cautious and use common sense, and where necessary consult the latest guidelines.

Click for government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert, and continue with precautions such as washing your hands thoroughly, especially after handling deliveries to your home.

14th June 2020

General

The PM has announced that non essential retail can open from 15th June, subject to meeting COVID guidelines. This includes shops, zoos, safari parks and drive in cinemas. Single adults and their children under 18 can form a 'bubble' with one other family (but not the especially vulnerable).

Places of worship can open their doors for individual worship, but not for groups. Effectively that means churches remain closed for the time being.

Further easement of the lockdown may follow on 4th July, but airlines and the hospitality sector are saying this will only be financially viable if 'distancing' is reduced.

Young people have continued ignoring the ban on large gatherings with many anti-racism demonstrations and two 'raves' in Manchester involving 6,000 individuals. The police appear powerless to intervene. Possibly these individuals will by default become guinea pigs offering an opportunity for scientists to gather statistics about the spread of COVID in such gatherings.

The increase in the cumulative number of UK COVID cases and deaths has slowed further to about 3% per week, but the tail of the curve is beginning to show some sign of leveling out, and with the lockdown easing the future is becoming increasingly unpredictable.

We don't know what the government's criteria will be for the background level of infection that it is prepared to tolerate, but in the worst case pressure from business owners could result in tens of thousands of the population dying before their time, on top of the 42,000 so far.

At least there is the satisfaction that there has been only one confirmed case of Coronavirus reported in the Malvern Hills district this week.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 295,889 and the number of deaths to 41,698; of these there have been 1,431 cases in Worcestershire, and 139 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of UK COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to rise towards 304,000 and the number of deaths towards 43,000. In Worcestershire expect up to 25 new cases, and just one or two cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Advice

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay mostly at home and continue with physical distancing until at least 30th June.

Currently the risk ought to be low for those staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing, and avoiding contact with people from outside the area.

Click for full government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert, and keep washing your hands thoroughly, especially after handling deliveries to your home.

7th June 2020

General

Last week the general public began to tire of the lockdown. Crowds flooded to the coast and beauty spots. At Gullet quarry, youngsters who had ignored danger notices and climbed over fencing left behind a large number of Nitrous Oxide canisters, an anaesthetic often used by those experimenting with drugs. This weekend anti-racism demonstrators ignored government advice to stay at home and held large gatherings in London and other UK cities - sparked off by the killing of George Floyd by a policeman in the USA. In Bristol demonstrators pulled down the statue of slave trader Edward Colston and threw it in the harbour.

Travellers arriving in the UK after 8th June are to be told to quarantine for 14 days. The airline bosses don't like this and have been lobbying to stop this happening. Hospitality bosses have been lobbying for physical distancing to be reduced from two metres to one metre so they can restart their businesses on a more profitable basis.

This weekend, newspapers have suggested a possible increase in daily cases of Coronavirus in NW England where some cities are delaying the return of pupils to school. In contrast the Malvern Hills appears a relatively safe place with only two new cases being confirmed this week.

There are emerging calls for government to provide finer grain information about Coronavirus cases, for example by postcode, so that Public Health teams  can better manage local outbreaks.

Two months ago the ONS published an interactive map of deaths by postcode which showed deaths to 17th April when the epidemic was at its height. This snapshot showed the distribution of deaths in the Malvern area then to be:

Malvern Wells and Priory - 7

Barnards Green - 1

Malvern Link - 2

Malvern Pickersleigh - 2

North Malvern - 1

Callow End - 3

Click to view ONS Visualisation Map of COVID deaths to 17th April

This appears to have been a one off exercise and as far as we know the map has neither been updated nor modified to show confirmed cases by postcode.

Suffice to say that in the past the disease has been amongst us!

Matt Hancock has advised from 15th June members of the public travelling by train or bus or visiting hospital must wear a surgical mask or some other face covering. This is a major about turn by the government, but seems a wise precaution to minimise transmission of large saliva dropets.

Have a look at the websites of the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) and the American Association of Retired People (AARP) to find out more about the US situation and their advice.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 286,194 and the number of deaths to 40,542; of these there have been 1,407 cases in Worcestershire, and 138 confirmed cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north. The Malvern Gazette reports about 290 cumulative COVID deaths in hospital in Worcestershire, but the ONS figures, which include other settings such as care homes, are higher. Broken down by district the number of deaths, up to 29th May, are:

• Bromsgrove - 123

• Malvern Hills - 44    (up 2 in the last fortnight)

• Redditch - 54

• Worcester - 55

• Wychavon - 96

• Wyre Forest - 109

Making a total of 437 for Worcestershire.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Click to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

We get the feeling that the tail of this first wave of Coronavirus is dropping more slowly than some scientists would like.

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to rise towards 296,000 and the number of deaths towards 42,000. In Worcestershire expect up to thirty new cases, and just one or two cases in the Malvern Hills district.

Advice

Our advice for the elderly and vulnerable is to stay mostly at home and continue with physical distancing until at least 30th June.

Currently the risk ought to be low for those staying within the Malvern Hills district, physically distancing, and avoiding contact with people from outside the area.

Click for full government Coronavirus guidance and support

Take care, stay alert and keep washing your hands!

31st May 2020

Requesting a test

You should book a test if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms. Information about how to obtain a test can be found on the NHS website. Follow this link:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

In case of difficulty you can phone the Coronavirus contact centre by dialling 119.

General

The sunny dry spell has continued and the met office says the May sunshine has been the highest since records began. Farmers are now having to deal with drought, following floods earlier in the year, whilst those locked down at home have begun flooding to parks, the countryside and beaches. Despite warnings, small groups of youngsters have gathered locally at Gullet quarry.

This has been a week of two halves, beginning with press hysteria about the movements of the PMs special adviser and then more balanced speculation about easing of the lockdown.

The daily number of deaths from Coronavirus has continued to fall across the country, whilst the number of new cases reported falls more slowly.

The number of future cases can be expected to wax and wane as the lockdown is eased. The big question is will NHS Test and Trace work sufficiently well to prevent return to an exponential growth in cases and a second spike? Only time will tell.

The main things to remember are to continue to maintain physical distancing of 2 metres, not to touch your face, and wash your hands thoroughly after receiving goods and when you get home. And of course to self isolate if unfortunately you feel unwell with COVID symptoms

Those going out might want to take some 70% alcohol based hand gel with them which is beginning to reappear in the shops, and also consider wearing a 'face covering' if appropriate.

Review of local cases

This ought to be a good time to review the progress of the epidemic through Worcestershire now that the first peak in the epidemic has passed; except that is not easy because the UK government has kept the public in the dark, possibly because of the General Data Protection Regulations, unlike in Singapore where such data is in the public domain.

Hearsay has it that our milkman is off sick with Coronavirus, a family on the outskirts of Barnards Green was infected, eight people have died in a nursing home in Barnards Green and nurse Julie Omar died, who worked at Redditch hospital. Nearby, councillor Tom Wells has reported cases and deaths in the parish of Powick. Have you heard of other cases?

The Office of National Statistics has reported a total of 42 deaths in the Malvern Hills district due to COVID in the period up to 15th May. Of these 2 have been at home, 18 in care homes and 21 in hospital. The first death was reported in late March and the peak was reached in the middle of April. No deaths were reported in week ending 8th May.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

Currently there are few new cases in Worcestershire and one must hope further spread will be mopped up by the new NHS Test and Trace organisation.

It is however slightly disturbing that the number of deaths (42)reported by the ONS suggests a death rate of 30% as the number of confirmed COVID cases in the Malvern Hills is only reported as 136. If the death rate were only one percent, as the government suggested at the start of the outbreak, then possibly there could actually have been as many as 4,000 unrecorded cases eg self isolating and recovering at home, and those showing no symptoms.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 274,762 and the number of deaths to 38,489; of these there have been 1,379 cases and about 281 deaths in Worcestershire, and 136 cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north.

There has been some tinkering with the Worcestershire figures, which went down by 9 on 30th May and the cumulative Malvern Hills figure which had been up to 138 and today fell to 136. Possibly this is due to cases and deaths in the county not being counted if it turns out the person's main place of residence was elsewhere.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard can be expected to rise towards 288,000 and the number of deaths towards 40,000.

Advice

Many younger people will now be taking the opportunity to meet friends and relatives outdoors while ideally maintaining a physical separation of 2 metres. However our advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - best mostly stay at home and continue with physical distancing until at least 30th June. Yesterday the government advised that the very vulnerable can go outdoors once a day with one other person - if they want to.

What happens next

The public can now travel any distance for exercise, and from 1st June primary schools can partially reopen. Elite racing, golf, tennis and football can commence behind closed doors, so expect the opportunity to watch competitions at home on TV. Groups of up to six people from different households can meet outdoors provided individuals maintain a separation of 2 metres.

Dentists can open from 8th June, but it sounds as though, for the time being, some may prefer extracting to repairing teeth to avoid aerosols. Hairdressers are unlikely to reopen before July, so you might need to ask your partner for a trim. Still no mention of public toilets reopening so don't go too far from home!

Click for full government Coronavirus guidance and support

The number of new UK cases of Coronavirus, confirmed by a test, is currently about 2,000 cases a day, although sampling suggests the actual number could be nearer 8,000. Easing of the lockdown is potentially going to increase the spread of the disease, but it is to be hoped this will be counteracted by NHS Test, Trace, and isolation. Let's also hope treatments and a vaccine are not far behind!

Take care, stay safe and keep washing your hands.

24th May 2020

Physical distancing continues but the Malvern Hills car parks, B&Q and Guarlford Nursery have reopened. Flour is said to be available from the Morrison's bakery counter.

Schools are investigating reopening in a limited fashion from 1st June for reception and years 1 and 6. Year 10 and 12 secondary pupils may begin going back from 15th June. The government says it will say more about non essential shops and social venues next week. We are keen to know when hairdressers will reopen!

Last Saturday left wing newspapers published a 'News of the World' style scoop about Dominic Cummings and his family self isolating in Durham 2 months ago creating a storm of public comment and speculation in the mainstream media. This was clearly a well crafted attempt to score political points and not done for the common good.

Would it not be better for the BBC and other mainstream media to use their resources to help trace the four thousand or so remaining carriers of the Coronavirus, rather than hounding Dominic Cummings for looking after his family.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 259,995 and the number of deaths to 36,793; of these there have been 1,369 cases and about 270 deaths in Worcestershire, and 137 cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north.

On 20th May the government adjusted the cumulative number of confirmed UK cases down by 2,997.

Only 2 new cases were reported in the Malvern Hills district this week.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard could rise towards 275,000 and the number of deaths towards 38,500.

With so few new cases at present being reported in the Malvern Hills we envisage the risk of catching Coronavirus is low especially for those continuing to self isolate.

However our advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - best stay at home and continue with physical distancing for the time being.

17th May 2020

Following the easing of the lockdown in England, announced last Sunday, there has been a resurgence of tribal politics. The Labour party has re-commenced taking pot shots at the government, the Welsh are setting up police road blocks to prevent the English exercising in Wales, and Nicola Sturgeon who was the first to talk about easing the lockdown, at a press briefing, has done a 'U' turn.

According to the press, the government's proposal to plan for a partial return to school in June has met stiff resistance from some teachers, the NASWUT and BMA. Others suggest that as COVID-19 could be circulating for years, ways must be found for living with the virus, and dragging heels postpones the inevitable.

The number of cases reported in Australia which has half the population of England is 7,045 and the number of deaths just 98. Many of these cases have been linked to infected passengers who disembarked from the cruise ship Ruby Princess at Sydney without checks.

Numbers

The cumulative number of UK cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 243,303 and the number of deaths to 34,636; of these there have been 1,321 cases and about 255 deaths in Worcestershire, and 135 cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north.

The daily number of new cases continues to slow. Only 2 new cases were reported in the Malvern Hills district this week.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard could rise towards 270,000 and the number of deaths towards 37,000.

With so few new cases at present being reported in the Malvern Hills we envisage the risk of catching Coronavirus is low especially for those continuing to self isolate.

That said, hearsay is that during the eight week lockdown someone delivering to our door has been infected, as was a family in the Barnards Green area, and there have been cases at Powick; so our advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - best stay at home and continue with physical distancing for the time being.

10th May 2020

This and that

It's been a quiet week in lockdown at home disturbed only by press speculation about how the lockdown might be eased.

We listened to a U3A talk about 'The Phoney War' using Zoom, Rev Gary held virtual church using Zoom, and we had phone and Skype calls with family.

Commentator Dr Stephanie Hare spoke at great length on the Rachel Burden show on Radio 5 about how the new NHS app being piloted in the Isle of Wight was unlikely to be effective. Would it not have been better for the BBC to have encouraged the take up of the new app rather than slag it off?

Postscript: aplogies Stephanie, seems you were right.

Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College had to resign from the government's Scientific Advisory Group (SAGE), after a visit from his girlfriend breaking the 'curfew'. The press loves a sex scandal - we wondered whether the press staked him out or his neighbours sneaked on him?

On the front page of Tuesday's Times newspaper was the photo of a distinguished bearded gentleman. Nice blue shirt we thought; and then reading down discovered he was explorer Robin Hanbury-Tenison who was able to return home for his 84th birthday after spending 49 days in hospital and being given only a 20% chance of recovery from COVID-19. What wonderful care the NHS must provide.

On Sir Patrick Vallance's Twitter we found a link to members of SAGE and advisory papers prepared by the committee:-

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Plenty of reading there for those wanting to take the plunge.

On John Menaude's Australian Blog about political affairs we read a two part article by Dr Jeff Kildea about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia, and it was interesting to find how similar is the government's response today.

At the time Professor David Welsh of the University of Sydney wrote:

It is the irony of the situation that, whatever happens, all who have taken a part in trying to control the epidemic will be blamed. If they cannot be blamed for failure, they will be blamed for the means they have taken to achieve success.

No doubt this will be as true today as it was in 1919.

Numbers

The cumulative number of cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 219,183 and the number of deaths to 31,855; of these there have been 1,260 cases and about 236 deaths in Worcestershire, and 133 cases in the Malvern Hills district Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA), which stretches from Upton upon Severn in the south towards Stourport in the north.

There has only been a handful of new cases in the Malvern Hills district.

From the 29th April the figures have included the deaths of those confirmed COVID-19 positive in the home, hospices and care homes, in addition to those reported by the NHS.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

The daily number of new cases of Coronavirus has not been falling greatly, but the impression we get from the government's daily briefings is that this is because the enlarged testing programme is now picking up cases outside hospitals which would previously have gone unreported.

Trends suggest that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard will rise towards 255,000 and the number of deaths towards 35,000.

As the government eases the lockdown there is likely to be an increase in cases with an associated steady increase in the cumulative number of deaths; so we should not be surprised if the number of deaths attributed to Coronavirus rises from 35,000 towards 70,000 during the next six months.

Few new cases are at present being reported in the Malvern Hills so we envisage the risk of catching Coronavirus is low especially for those continuing to self isolate.

What next

At his press briefing on Sunday the PM set out a road map giving a sense of the way ahead - this has little impact on Seniors.

There was talk of setting up a COVID Alert System run by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre, and COVID Alert Levels, using test and trace to pinpoint and deal with flare ups, for example in care homes. From Wednesday no time limit on exercise periods eg allowing sitting in the sunshine to read a book and driving to locations. Some shops could reopen in June, and hospitality businesses in July subject to physical distancing. Some children could go back to school in June eg years 1 and 6. People should be encouraged to go back to work, where safe, avoiding public transport if possible.

Click to read PM briefing on 10th May 2020

Advice

Advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - stay at home and continue with physical distancing.

3rd May 2020

The number of Coronavirus cases has begun to fall slowly and journalists are turning their attention to what happens next. It sounds as though the government will announce their plan for the gradual easing of the present restrictions, in a week's time. This is likely to be in a number of stages.

Talk about flood defences, BREXIT, the high speed rail project HS2 and the third runway at Heathrow has gone to the back of the queue.

This week the nations' morale was significantly raised by one man, veteran Captain Tom Moore who raised £32M for NHS charities and celebrated his 100th birthday. Well done Captain Tom!

Number of coronavirus cases

The cumulative number of cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 186,599 and the number of deaths to 28,446; of these there have been 1,164 cases and about 230 deaths in Worcestershire. From the 29th April the figures have included the deaths of those confirmed COVID-19 positive in the home, hospices and care homes, in addition to those reported by the NHS, which has inflated the previously announced cumulative number of deaths by about 25%.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

The government has acknowledged that the daily death rate has peaked and begun to fall slowly. We estimate that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported by the NHS will rise towards 220,000 and the number of deaths towards 33,000.

Few new cases are now being reported in Worcestershire so we envisage the risk of catching Coronavirus is low for those self isolating and following the rules in the Malvern Hills district.

What happens next

We have no idea but are expecting the PM to give a heads up in a week's time. The disease is now widespread across the world so is not going to go away and currently there is no vaccine or cure. So it can be expected that over the next 18 months the embers in the population will flare up into small outbreaks as restrictions are eased, which the government hopes to dampen down by testing and contact tracing. The cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 can be expected to continue rising.

Contact tracing will involve a number of tools - the existing Kings College mobile phone app already allows us to report symptoms of COVID-19, and the NHS app intended to warn those who have been close to a person later identified as COVID-19 positive should become available later in May. Allied to this contact tracing teams are being set up by government and we wonder to what extent they will be embedded with local GPs and public health teams.

We can help by self isolating to protect ourselves and others, especially if we feel unwell.

For those going out, physical distancing will need to be maintained, and face coverings ideally used where this is not possible for example when travelling by tube or bus.

Large gatherings are likely to be banned for the foreseeable future such as at theatres, pubs, restaurants, horse racing, football, rugby and tennis.

International air travel is likely to remain difficult, so there will be few if any holidays abroad this year, and people entering the UK may be quarantined.

Travelling should be reduced to minimise spread of the virus and replaced where possible by virtual meetings using for example Zoom, Google Meetings or Microsoft Teams. Remember how foot and mouth was spread by sheep being taken on 'holiday'.

It is difficult to see how the return to school can be safely managed, especially in relation to boarding schools.

Quotient (Edinburgh) and Roche (Switzerland) have announced an accurate test for COVID-19 antibodies. Unlike the home testing kits which are said to be unreliable, this involves a sample of blood being taken by a nurse and processed by a laboratory. If affordable this should enable further confirmation of who has had the disease, and monitoring of these indviduals may indicate to what extent immunity is retained and whether it is safe for them to return to work.

Diversions

We were interested to see an American channel c-span.org being streamed on the Parliament channel on Sunday with a phone in about Coronavirus. You will find a lot of commentaries about US affairs to read.

The U3A Military History Group has circulated details of a Virtual commemoration of the end of WWII 75 years ago sponsored by the National Army Museum 7th - 9th May. There is a lot to explore, here is the link:-

http://www.nam.ac.uk/whats-on/virtual-ve-day-75-festival

Ancestry is offering free access to their UK records until 10th May.

26th April 2020

We had hoped as the figures had reached a plateau the daily number of deaths and new cases would begin falling by now, but that is not yet the case. This suggests to us that currently each infected person is infecting approximately one other person (R=1), and we wonder if the present lockdown is possibly not strong enough to stamp out the disease - for example due to a minority breaking the rules.

Politicians are now being pressed by businesses and journalists to relax the lockdown which places them in an impossible situation - they could strengthen the lockdown and risk seriously damaging the economy, continue with current measures for which there is little appetite, or begin easing the lockdown gradually, whilst maintaining physical distancing and monitoring the impact on the NHS very carefully so as to prevent a second wave of infection.

The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is returning from sick leave on Monday 27th April and we wonder if he could possibly order an easing of the UK lockdown from mid May.

Meanwhile in Singapore, which had been doing well, the lockdown has been extended from 4th May to the 1st June, and a strict lockdown continues in neighbouring Malaysia.

Number of cases

The cumulative number of cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 152,840 and the number of deaths to 20,732. Of these there have been 1,035 cases and about 192 deaths in Worcestershire.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Information about cases in the Malvern Hills area is sparse but the Malvern Gazette has attempted an analysis based on ONS figures to 10th April:-

click for Malvern Gazette report on COVID-19 cases

Although some cases have been reported locally we envisage the risk is still relatively low for those self isolating and following the rules in the Malvern Hills district.

Our eldest son who lives in Scotland reported shopping in the pharmacy in Biggar, which has a one person at a time rule as in Barnards Green, when a delivery driver pushed by coughing and spluttering carrying a pile of boxes - apparently the 'rules' did not apply to him. Perhaps, as the mayor of London suggests, there is a case for those out and about to wear face masks in order to provide a measure of protection in such instances.

Although the increase in the daily death rate has flattened and can be expected to fall slowly over the next weeks, we estimate that during the next seven days the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases reported by the NHS will rise towards 190,000 and the number of deaths towards 26,000.

These figures exclude cases in the home, hospices and care homes.

Advice

Advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - continue with physical distancing for the time being. Don't take silly risks; there is no cure and nationally to date 1 in 7 patients confirmed COVID-19 positive by the NHS are dying. That said there is no point worrying. We hope you are finding plenty to do, still have items unticked on your job list, and have arrangements in place for food and prescriptions.

Take care and stay safe.

19th April 2020

A few days ago a relative said that she had seen her 'nephew' Professor Martin McKee on the BBC World News. He is a medical man and comments on the Coronavirus epidemic on his Twitter feed. On the 18th April he included a link to the sciencemag.org website where there is an article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body. If you thought that Chinese Coronavirus was a mild illness then this will change your mind.

The government has announced that the lockdown is to be continued for at least another three weeks. After that a cautious and phased return to work may be possible.

On BBC Radio 5 mention has been made of a phone app for reporting and tracking the spread of the virus, and identifying hot spots. That sounds a wonderful idea and we predict it will become a useful tool in the management of the Coronavirus epidemic.

Click this link to find out how to get the Covid Tracker App

An NHS app, which uses Bluetooth technology, is also being developed to warn people who may have been in contact with a confirmed case of Coronavirus.

Both these apps may help significantly with the management of the disease during emergence from lockdown as has helped in South Korea.

Click this link to read an Australian article describing how South Korea has managed the COVID-19 epidemic.

Number of cases

The cumulative number of cases confirmed by the NHS rose today to 120,067 and the number of deaths to 16,060. Of these there have been 845 cases and 158 deaths in Worcestershire.

Click this link to view UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

The increase in the daily death rate has flattened and can be expected to fall over the next couple of weeks. We forecast that during the next week the cumulative number of UK cases reported by the NHS will rise towards 160,000 and the number of deaths towards 20,000.

These figures exclude cases in the home, hospices and care homes.

The eventual grand total of the number of deaths attributed to the current COVID-19 epidemic could well be comparable to the number of civilians killed in WWII which was 70,000; the daily death rate is currently 50% above the 'natural' death rate creating a significant extra workload for mortuaries, undertakers, and cemetery staff.

The press

Journalists are currently turning their attention to spread of the Coronavirus in care homes, shortages of PPE, possible exit strategies, and taking pot shots at the government.

If only they would be more positive and report for example on how the development and roll out of new ventilators is going, exactly where the log jams with PPE are and opportunities for clearing them, and reporting on improvements in testing infrastructure and progress with vaccines.

Advice

Advice for the elderly and vulnerable remains the same - continue with physical distancing for the time being; you must avoid catching this virus at all costs.

An elderly neighbour who has carers coming into her home 3 times a day is in a difficult situation and her safety mainly relies on the carers, who help others, wearing PPE and staying at home if they feel unwell.

Those living in sheltered accommodation can maintain physical distancing by staying in their room and arranging for food to be delivered to their door; knowing they have the option to press a panic button or dial 999 to call for assistance if they feel unwell.

We don't know much about the situation in care homes, but imagine they are all different generally with staff coming in to cook meals, change bedding and assist the infirm. Recent reports of Coronavirus spreading within care homes suggests it is extremely difficult to prevent and control infection in that environment. Prompt testing of 'suspect' staff and patients, and the rapid dispatch of hospital quality PPE to affected car homes ought to help. On the positive side, we have not heard of any cases of COVID-19 in Malvern, apart from 2 deaths at the Malvern Community Hospital, just reported by the Malvern Gazette.

Do tell us if you know different.

Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should not delay but call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.

13th April 2020

It does not seem like Easter Bank Holiday Monday, locked down here at home, except for the usual rerun of mediocre movies on Freeview TV. The government Coronavirus briefings at 5 PM are becoming somewhat boring and people are beginning to wonder what the criteria for leaving 'lockdown' will eventually be.

We were very glad to hear the Prime Minister is now out of hospital and convalescing at Chequers after almost falling victim to Coronavirus, and we have enjoyed listening to Dr Chris Smith, who talks a lot of sense, answering questions about Coronavirus on BBC Radio 5.

The cumulative number of cases of Coronavirus reported by the NHS is now 88,621 and the number of deaths 11,329 excluding those who died at home, in hospices and in Care Homes. Of the numbers reported by the NHS, there have been 605 cases in the county of Worcestershire and a couple of days ago the Malvern Gazette reported there had been 88 deaths.

Click for Coronavirus Dashboard

For some reason Worcestershire has been steadily moving up the league table from being one of the least infected rural counties to one of the most. We estimate about 5% of the population of Worcestershire may have been infected but have found no reports of cases, for example by postcode, either in the Malvern Gazette, or published by the Local Authority. We have however heard of one suspected case self isolating at Powick and there has been the sad news of the death of nurse Julie Omar aged 52 years who worked at the Alexandra hospital at Redditch.

The government figures published daily on the web based Coronavirus Dashboard suggests to us the present outbreak may have reached its peak; so the number of daily reported NHS cases and deaths could gradually fall over the next few weeks. Nevertheless it seems likely the cumulative number of cases reported by the NHS will rise towards 120,000 by next Sunday 19th April, and the number of deaths towards 15,000. By this time perhaps only about 5% of the UK population may have been infected, with the remainder remaining vulnerable.

It sounds as though the UK government could continue the lockdown for at least another 3 weeks. After that some phased return to work is possible with emphasis on continued physical distancing, as far as is practicable; however Seniors and the vulnerable ought to consider remaining in lockdown for longer as there could be secondary waves of infection once people begin to mingle.

In Singapore it was business as usual until recently, but people returning to Singapore from holiday have brought Coronavirus with them, and the country is now in LOCKDOWN until May 4th. They call it CIRCUIT BREAKER!

Click for information about Circuit Breaker in Singapore

We remain in very uncertain times and all governments are 'feeling their way'.

5th April 2020

The increase in cases continues, but the UK government is taking steps to increase hospital capacity and slow down the spread of the virus by maintaining a LOCKDOWN so while people are experiencing varying degrees of 'cabin fever' there is no need to panic.

The government's plan is working and deaths are much less than they would have been if the virus had been allowed to run wild. However we need to continue to take great care to avoid catching the virus and passing it on to others.

Number of cases

Today the cumulative number of confirmed hospital cases in the UK rose to 47,806 and the number in Worcestershire to 350. Most of these are likely to be patients with acute symptoms and there will be many others with the virus self isolating at home - so the actual number of cases could be perhaps 5 to 10 times the present number of confirmed cases making the percentage of the British population so far infected by the virus about 1%.

The cumulative number of deaths has risen sharply to 4,934 of which the Malvern Gazette reports 45 deaths at hospitals in Worcestershire.

Matt Hancock the Health Minister has returned to work, while the Prime Minister rather worryingly is still suffering from the effects of Coronavirus and has been admitted to hospital this evening. Sir Keir Starmer has been appointed leader of the Labour party replacing Jeremy Corbyn.

Click for Coronavirus Dashboard

Forecast of cases to 12th April

The cumulative number of hospital cases has recently been advancing more slowly, roughly doubling every week so could reach towards 90,000 in a week's time. However it is to be hoped the number of cases will be less than this, the degree depending on how effective the lockdown introduced on the 23rd March has been.

The cumulative number of hospital deaths has been rising more steeply, quadrupling every week, so could reach 20,000 in a weeks time. However if lockdown works we should soon begin to see the daily number of deaths due to Coronavirus plateau and then begin to fall. Deaths outside hospitals, for example in the care sector, are not currently being gathered, but will be reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in due course.

The government says it is too early to give an indication of exactly how Coronavirus will be managed in the months ahead, but we are guessing the present lockdown may continue to towards the end of May.

It is impossible to forecast how fast the virus will spread during the remainder of April; it will first depend on the public continuing to obey the lockdown, despite the sunny weather, and doing our best not to catch or spread the infection to others; secondly the NHS increasing testing in order to keep doctors and nurses in the front line, and help track the spread of the infection across the country; thirdly officials tracing and isolating contacts in order to keep infections down to a tolerable level until a treatment is introduced.

It may become clearer by the end of April how the Coronavirus epidemic can be managed in the UK, and hopefully world wide, in the medium term.

Our thoughts go out to the families of the 'fallen' of the NHS who have died from Coronavirus while treating patients. We did not initially imagine NHS staff would themselves be casualties.

Hospital beds and equipment

The Nightingale field hospital at the Excel Centre in London opened this week and other facilities are being created at Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Cardiff, Harrogate and Glasgow. Matt Hancock said today that the NHS had 9,000 ventilators and additional ventilators would be arriving from a number of sources to increase the total to 18,000. The governments says capacity is increasing faster than the number of cases, so the NHS though stressed should not become overloaded. That said there must be tremendous pressure on those medical staff having to comfort the dying.

Symptoms

We were initially told most people would get only mild symptoms and should recover within 7 days, yet there are many accounts of people having high temperatures, feeling rottten and very weak for up to 2 to 3 weeks after. In more severe cases, after about 7 days, patients can have difficulty breathing and need to be hospitalized.

If you have symptoms and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should call your GP for advice.

There is no cure for this virus. Treatment at home is isolation, paracetamol, plenty of fluids and rest. A hospital nurse thinks 'last ditch' intubation with a ventilator to provide extra oxygen to those with pneumonia is currently only saving one person in two.

This does not sound like a mild illness - Seniors should definitely take all reasonable steps to avoid it.

Shopping

During isolation you may want to take advantage of home deliveries by local supermarkets.

 The Waitrose website is back to normal, though stocking a reduced range of products, and priority for home deliveries is now being given to those aged over 70, and the vulnerable. It looks as though delivery slots currently can't be booked more than 10 days ahead and most of those are full, but if none found Seniors are being advised to log on the next day, as new slots are being added daily.

The Morrisons website is still overloaded - you are forced to wait in a queue before being offered a 10 minute window in which to logon.

 ASDA, Sainsbury and Tesco also deliver locally - do tell us whether you have been able to book deliveries with them.

Many shops in Barnards Green are now opening at 10:00 am and Lloyd's Pharmacy is limiting customers to two; possibly one at the Post Office.

For the young and fit, the risk of infection while shopping in large county supermarkets is likely to be low this week. The number of people infected with Coronavirus in Worcestershire is probably no more than 3,500 possibly rising to 8,000 representing about 1% of the county's population.

We assess there is currently a 50% chance there could be one person with Coronavirus in a large supermarket, and if social distancing is observed, as is now being operated for example at Waitrose, and you don't touch your face and wash your hands thoroughly on getting home, the likelyhood of being infected is small. The hazard is likely to be from an individual who doesn't observe the signs, coughs over others and may leave virus on either a shopping trolley handle or checkout key pad.

Seeking help

Worcestershire Count Council has a Here 2 Help web page where you can enter your details to ask for help:

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help

scroll down the page a little and click on the ‘I need help’ button. From here you will be able to enter your details.

You can track Coronavirus cases and obtain further advice from the government Coronavirus Dashboard.

Please do let us, or the Malvern Gazette, know if you hear of Coronavirus cases locally.

Take care, hunker down, and stay safe.

29th March 2020

The expected surge in cases is now apparent, but the UK government is actively taking steps to increase hospital capacity and slow down the spread of the virus by implementing a LOCKDOWN so while people are experiencing varying degrees of inconvenience there is no need to panic.

The government's plan seems to be working and deaths to date are much less than they would have been if the virus had been allowed to run wild.

Worcestershire is a rural county and the infection rate is thankfully much lower than in London where there is greater person to person contact.

That said we need to continue to take great care to avoid catching the virus and passing it on to others.

Number of cases

Today the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the UK rose to 19,522 and the number in Worcestershire to 126. Most of these are likely to be patients with acute symptoms who have gone to hospital and there will be others with the virus self isolating at home. So the actual number of cases could be perhaps 5 times the present number of confirmed cases. Even so, the percentage of the British population infected by the virus is still very small.

We are slightly disappointed the local Health Authority is not publishing where cases are occuring, but possibly this is to prevent panic.

The cumulative number of deaths has risen by 209 to 1,228 of which there has been just one death announced at Redditch and a second at Worcester.

A couple of days ago it was revealed that the Prime Minister and Health Secretary had both been tested positive for Coronavirus, as had Prince Charles. Unexpectedly the chance of stepping up the succession ladder has significantly increased! Some ask, jokingly, who is the Designated Survivor?

Forecast of cases

According to the government's Coronavirus Dashboard there has been an exponential increase in cases since early March, but in the last week we detect a slowing in the rate of acceleration, possibly due to the social distancing measures introduced on 16th March, and a further slowing can be expected due to the LOCKDOWN introduced on 23rd March. However we are still predicting the number of confirmed and unreported cases in the UK could reach 100,000 by the end of March.

We extrapolate that the cumulative number of deaths could increase by almost a factor of four over the next week towards 4,000 but if LOCKDOWN works we should soon after begin to see the daily number of deaths due to Coronavirus decreasing.

It is at present impossible to forecast how the virus will spread during the remainder of April; it is firstly dependant on us, the public, being responsible and doing our best not to catch or spread the infection to others; secondly the NHS increasing testing in order to keep doctors and nurses in the front line, and help track the spread of the infection across the country; thirdly officials tracing and isolating contacts in order to keep infections down to a tolerable level until a vaccine is introduced.

It should become much clearer during April how the Coronavirus epidemic is likely to progress. This Battle of Britain is likely to be fought over Easter with the NHS supported by the army in the front line. Supermarket checkout operators should not be forgotten, many of whom would rather be at home with their families rather than facing sometimes abusive and possibly infectious customers.

Our thoughts go out to the families of Dr Adil El Tayar aged 64 who died of Coronavirus on 25th March and Dr El Hawrani aged 55 whose death was reported today.

Hospital beds and equipment

The government has bought in beds from the private sector, ordered more ventilators and test kits, and the army is setting up a field hospital at the Excel centre in London for 500 intensive care beds initially, expandable to 4,000 and similar field hospitals are being considered at the Birmingham NEC, Manchester Central Convention Centre and the Cardiff Principality Stadium. Meanwhile beds have been reorganised in NHS hospitals to better cope with the expected surge in cases in April.

The BBC reports a temporary mortuary for 1,500 bodies is being set up at Birmingham Airport which will be part of a nationwide network capable of dealing with a 'reasonable' worst case scenario.

It has been suggested, with a favourable wind, the national UK death toll due to Coronavirus could possibly be as few as 20,000 of which Worcestershire as a small percentage of the UK population might suffer up to 200 deaths.

Another commentator has suggested that the probability of dying from Coronavirus is little different from the probability of dying from natural causes in that age group during the year - the inconvenience being people in the worst case might die within a couple of weeks instead of spread over 12 months.

Retired doctors and nurses are being invited back to help during the crisis and 750,000 members of the public have applied to be NHS voluntary responders.

Symptoms

We were initially told most people would get only mild symptoms and should recover within 7 days, yet there are many accounts of people having high temperatures, feeling rottten and very weak for up to 2 to 3 weeks after. In more severe cases, after about 7 days, patients can have difficulty breathing and need to be hospitalized.

If you have symptoms and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should call your GP for advice.

There is no cure for this virus. Treatment at home is isolation, paracetamol, plenty of fluids and rest. A hospital nurse thinks intubation with a ventilator to provide extra oxygen to those with pneumonia is only saving one person in two.

This does not sound like a mild illness - Seniors should definitely take all reasonable steps to avoid it.

Shopping

A week ago social distancing was not being observed in supermarkets, stocks were running low due to panic buying, and home delivery slots ran out.

A neigbour told us the situation is better this week, and staples can of course be bought at smaller shops, such as in Barnards Green.

The Waitrose website was back to normal last night, and giving some priority for home deliveries to those aged over 70, but the Morrisons website was overloaded.  ASDA, Sainsbury and Tesco also deliver locally.

As mentioned above, special measures are being introduced by the government to supply those the NHS has notified as being at especially high risk; possibly individuals in this category will be marked as a priority for home deliveries on supermarket databases.

Sadly there are reports of people abusing shop staff when they cannot get what they want. We can support them by showing kindness.

For the young and fit, the risk of infection while shopping in supermarkets is still relatively low. We assess there is currently a 10% chance that there could be one person in a large supermarket who has or has had Coronavirus, and if social distancing is observed, as is now being operated for example at Waitrose, and you wash your hands thoroughly on getting home, the risk of being infected is small. The greatest risk is likely to come from an individual who doesn't observe the signs, coughs over others and may leave virus on a shopping trolley handle and checkout key pad.

Help and advice

In some areas neighbours are getting together to support those with special needs and popping notes through letter boxes.

Worcestershire Count Council has a Here 2 Help web page where you can enter your details to ask for help:

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help

scroll down the page a little and click on the ‘I need help’ button. From here you will be able to enter your details.

You can track Coronavirus cases and obtain further advice from the government Coronavirus dashboard.

Fitness

After those cloudy wet days of winter we have enjoyed getting out in the garden in the Spring sunshine. Many others have passed our gate enjoying a walk round the block with their dog.

We were entertained by Mr Motivator on Radio 5 the other day and later listened to a young fitness coach Jo Wickes who would appeal to families with young children - Google for his Youtube video.

A doctor said on TV that regular exercise should help boost the immune system.

Sadly most dentists, opticians and shops have closed down making it difficult for example to buy materials for DIY projects and plants for the garden.

Please do let us, or the Malvern Gazette, know if you hear of Coronavirus cases locally.

Take care and stay safe.

22nd March 2020

Social distancing measures were introduced on 16th March causing bars, pubs, cinemas and the like to close down and on 20th March schools were closed 2 weeks before the end of term. A spate of panic buying has left supermarket shelves empty and supermarket home delivery slots have run out.

Today the confirmed number of UK Coronavirus cases has risen to 5,683 of which 7 are reported in Herefordshire and 19 in Worcestershire. The cumulative number of deaths has risen to 281, which is well below the annual number of deaths from other causes of 615,000.

The government's policy is now to use 'social distancing' to slow down the escalating rate of infection; in addition 1.5 million especially vulnerable people are being contacted and recommended to hunker down and go into isolation for a period of at least 12 weeks.

The purpose is to reduce the rate at which seriously ill patients arrive at hospital to a manageable level. The distressing images of patients gasping for breath in an Italian hospital powerfully indicate how serious the disease can be for some.

These 'social distancing' measures will increase unemployment and the government has put in place an aid package. An emerging worldwide ban on air travel could put many airlines out of business. Stock markets worldwide are depressed.

So what does this mean for the elderly in Malvern?

Vulnerable individuals will be contacted by the NHS and advised to isolate themselves at home for a period of 12 weeks. The government will be offering help with obtaining food and prescriptions.

Healthy over 70s should likewise isolate themselves, but can go out for walks and mix with a few others subject to maintaining a distance of two metres.

Expect doctors to stop walk in surgeries and offer consultations over the phone.

Supermarkets have suggested giving priority to the elderly and their carers as follows:

Waitrose: 1st hour after opening

M&S: Monday and Thursday 1st hour

Morrisons: no known special arrangement

Tesco (Worcester): Monday, Wednesday, Friday, 1st hour

You would have to be up early to take advantage of this!

Home delivery slots are currently very hard to come by, but try ASDA, Morrisons, Sainsbury, Tesco and Waitrose.

Hopefully panic buying will cease in a week or two and the supermarkets will increase home delivery slots.

Exit strategy

You may be wondering when the Coronavirus epidemic is going to end, but nobody seems to know.

If it is assumed the NHS would not be able to cope with cases leading to more than 400 deaths a day, and a 1% death rate, that gives a maximum capacity of 40,000 new cases per day; even at that very high rate it could take 4 years for the whole of the UK population to be affected. If social distancing were to reduce the rate of infection drastically, it is just possible that with better testing and contact tracing the epidemic might start to be brought under control in 3 months time, as in China. However relaxing the control measures early could lead to further outbreaks amongst remaining susceptible individuals, until a vaccine becomes widely available.

We must hope that the situation begins to ease by the summer, whilst being prepared for it to last a little longer.

Here are some links to further information:

Link to UK Government Coronavirus page

Link to Coronavirus Dashboard for number of cases in UK

Link to BBC News Coronavirus explainers page

Link to Scottish Government website

A new Battle of Britain has begun; the enemy is unseen and we are beginning to enter the thick of it; it may yet be a close run thing.

15th March 2020

Events are beginning to move more rapidly with lockdowns in Italy, Spain and France, and travel bans and quarantine restrictions introduced restricting movement within and between countries such as the USA and Australia.

Today the number of cumulative UK cases reported by Public Health England has risen to 1,372 of which 35 people have died. In comparison Italy has had about 24,000 cases and 1,800 deaths. Though this is a big difference, the UK is possibly lagging behind Italy by just 14 days.

We are now estimating that the cumulative number of UK cases, both recorded and unrecorded, could be as high as 100,000 (0.2% of the UK population) by the end of March, and possibly even as high as 10 million (16% of the UK) by the end of April 2020, but control measures taken by the public could lower these numbers significantly.

We estimate the number of people infected per day could reach its peak between the end of April and mid May.

The Health Minister, Matt Hancock, said on Sky TV this morning that the most significant control measures were:

• To wash hands thoroughly

• Individuals with a fever and persistent cough should isolate themselves for 7 days

• At risk people over 70 and those with underlying health conditions should isolate themselves during the peak of the epidemic which could last for up to 4 months - starting from a date yet to be announced.

Where contact with others is unavoidable distancing  by 2 metres from others has been suggested.

The minister went on to say that the government would be announcing new control measures next Tuesday to be enacted on Thursday. Possible measures could include banning large gatherings and advice on closing schools.

The risk in Malvern currently  remains low with 2 reported cases in Worcestershire and  1 in Herefordshire.

We recommend the elderly, those with underlying health risk conditions, and care homes should prepare plans for isolating themselves from early April or as otherwise advised by the government.

Think about shopping, cash, dealing with doctor's and hospital appointments collecting prescriptions etc. Consider what to do if you catch the virus, how you will communicate with family and friends, and plan activities  to occupy yourself during quarantine.

See the links below for further information on Coronavirus

12th March 2020

The epidemic is being widely reported in newspapers, on radio, and television. The outbreak in China now seems under control and cases are declining, whereas cases in europe, started by travellers, are increasing, particularly in Italy where a countrywide lockdown has been introduced and the health service is having difficulty coping. The WHO has declared the infection a Pandemic.

The cumulative number of confirmed cases in the UK, while still relatively small, has been roughly following an exponential curve with a total of 596 cases reached today of which 10 have died. Our 'extrapolation' forecasts that the number of confirmed cases could reach at least 6,000 by the end of March, rising to 50,000 by the end of April, but there is great uncertainty about such numbers. It was reported at today's Downing Street briefing that the actual number of cases in circulation could be up to ten times the number of confirmed cases detected by the NHS.

We wonder if the real number of cumulative cases could potentially reach several million by mid April especially if control measures were to be ignored. It is therefore most important everyone follows government advice.

The government's stated intention is to slow the rate of infection so that hospitals are not overwhelmed and can treat the most seriously ill, but over time the majority of us are likely to be infected.

As the percentage of the population that has recovered, and has immunity, increases the transmission rate should begin to slow; currently there is no information when this will happen, but perhaps towards the autumn?

Management of the disease is today moving from the 'Containment' to the 'Delay' phase and perhaps the NHS will gradually lose track of the cumulative number of infections and only report hospital cases. However, as a rule of thumb, the number of cases is likely to be roughly one hundred times the number of deaths reported.

In China transmission has been halted by enforced quarantine but as only a small proportion of the population has been infected it is possible there could be a second outbreak, for example reintroduced from europe, prior to widespread deployment of a vaccine.

Today president Trump announced visitors from the EEC, excluding the UK, would be banned from entering the USA for 30 days. Could some leaders be taking decisions thought to be popular with voters, rather than scientifically based? Some journalists are asking why the UK government is not copying 'popular' measures taken in other countries.

Here are some useful links:

Click here to read about UK Government response

Click here for new COVID19 dashboard showing reported cases

Click here for cases identified by NHS region

Click here for COVID19 advice from NHS 111 online

Confirmed Coronavirus cases in England by local authority (withdrawn)

Until yesterday there had been no cases recorded in Herefordshire and Worcestershire, but one person who visited the job centre in Worcester for a training course is recorded under Birmingham and another case has been recorded in Herefordshire. We should be mindful that there are many care homes in Malvern and the elderly and those with health conditions are likely to be much more seriously affected by the virus. Think about what we can do to protect them.

The Malvern branch of the U3A has postponed its monthly meetings at the Cube.

At present schools remain open which appears sensible bearing in mind children do not suffer serious illness and their parents could well be providing vital services.

Locally, supplies of face masks and 70% alcohol based hand gels ran out days ago. However face masks have been said to be of doubtful value, while hand gels are not required at home.

Stock market crash

The FTSE100 index fell sharply from about 7,100 to 5,994 on 9th March following concerns about the impact of Coronavirus on the world economy and a price war between Russia and the Saudi's flooding the market with cheap oil.

After a slight rally the FTSE100 index fell further to 5,273 today making it the biggest stock market crash since the 1980s.

15th February 2020

Chinese Coronavirus

First entry in COVID-19 blog:

The outbreak of this highly infectious flu like illness started in Wahen province, China. So far, isolating suspected cases in the UK has prevented spread.

The illness is said to be often fairly mild, but more serious in about 20% of cases, with an overall mortality rate of about 2%. That means, were the illness to become rife in the UK, in the very worst case, up to one million people might die, given there is currently no vaccine or treatment.

The disease is said particularly to affect older people and those with weakened immune systems and long term conditions. In the most serious cases it causes damage to the lungs, pneumonia and death.

Click this link for UK government advice to the public on coronavirus

Click this link for estimated number of coronavirus cases worldwide

Click this link for information on the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak

The disease is thought to have been transmitted from an animal in a Chinese market where all sorts of strange and exotic animals are sold for meat, such as the Pangolin or scaly anteater.

Summary of Links

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

Statistics

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive map

About Coronavirus statistics

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Spashots of deaths in hospital in England. This is not consolidated, so best see the Coronavirus Dashboard to view trends.

Reports

National COVID-19 surveillance reports

ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) roundup: Deaths and health

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

Help

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help

Outbreak Control Plan

http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own