Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern SeniorsClick to read our observations on politics and world events 1st May 2022
PreambleOver the last two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found. Now the worst of the epidemic is over the numbers are of far less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a while. Testing is being run down and the public is increasingly not recording the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard grossly underestimate the true situation. Roughly half the reported PHE COVID (28) deaths are now thought to be elderly patients who die with COVID but not from it. The best sources of data are currently:
Note: the future of the Zoe Study is a little uncertain as UKHSA has stopped funding and for most people Lateral Flow Tests are no longer free. For the time being this page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data. ContentsFurther information: About the Zoe COVID symptom study About the NHS contact tracing app SummaryBarring new variants it feels, in the UK, as though we are well on our way out of this epidemic and all the indicators are pointing in the right direction. The number of people being infected daily, though high, is falling as the weather improves, natural immunity builds up, and the virus begins to run out of people to infect. COVID bed occupancy is also declining, while the COVID (28) death rate has fallen to about 220 deaths per day and could reach a minimum of 60 by the end of May. All that said, don't forget the prevalence of COVID is still very high and many will catch COVID-19 during the next month or so despite being fully vaccinated. Some may feel a little rough and quickly get over it. Others may feel very poorly and spend a few days in bed, with it taking five to ten days to recover. But except for frail elderly patients, the clinically vulnerable and unlucky we are unlikely to be hospitalised and the good news is our resistance to future infection should be greatly increased by natural immunity. Many people who have caught COVID report feeling tired for several weeks afterwards so when exercising don't overdo things, eat wisely, and allow time to recover your strength. To counter vaccine waning amongst the most vulnerable, a second COVID-19 booster jab is available to Seniors aged 75+ years known as the Spring Booster. There are about 5M people to vaccinate, more than half have already had the vaccine, and this programme should be completed by the end of May. Click for information about the Spring Booster Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links How to get vaccinatedBy now we expect most Seniors are triple vaccinated. Children aged 5 - 11 years can be offered the vaccine, though only 5% are vaccinated so far. All those aged 16+ years can book a booster 3 months after their second dose. Click NHS link - Who can get a coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine For information about walk-in centres in Worcestershire go to the website: and click the Vaccine Rollout tab at the top of the page. Click for information about vaccination at the Three Counties Showground Otherwise either see the NHS website for walk-in opening times and vaccine availability: Or click this link for more information and to book a vaccination on-line: Book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk) Or talk to your GP. More about vaccinationsVaccinometerOur bar chart below shows the total number of:
Vaccinometer as of 8th April 2022 People are still coming forward to be vaccinated, but the rate is so slow expect to see little change to this chart during 2022. Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard. First booster jabsThe government says everyone aged 18+ years has been offered a booster jab. To date just over 49.6M have had two doses, and 39.1M booster doses have been administered, suggesting 10.5M still to boost in the UK; but those under 16 years are not yet eligible so there are probably 6M or so still to get their first booster. A booster is essential for protection from the Omicron variants and hospitalisation. Spring booster jabs for SeniorsThose aged 75+ are eligible for a second (Spring) booster which ideally should be 6 months after the first booster. For the youngest in that age group that will be by the end of May. Take up is rumoured to be good. If you have tested positive for COVID-19 after 1st February 2022, and therefore have acquired a degree of natural immunity to Omicron, you may want to consider whether or not you need a second booster. Should you decide to go ahead, you must wait at least 28 days after infection before getting the jab. You should be contacted by the NHS and invited to book your spring booster when it's due. You may be offered appointment dates from 3 months after your last dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. But try to book an appointment around 6 months after your last dose to get the best protection from your Spring Booster (check the date on your vaccination card). New Court Surgery is currently not offering Spring Boosters so you may have to book your booster at a mass vaccination centre, either on-line or by phoning 119. Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk) Good progress is being made and approximately 3.6M of 5M Spring boosters have been given up to 28th April. Click for NHS England COVID-19 Vaccinations Note: we have used the England figure and added 17% for other nations. Protection against hospitalisationThe UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance reports indicate the possible effectiveness of the vaccines. To quote from an earlier report:
Effectiveness against mortalityThe protection offered by the vaccines against death is less clear to us, but our reading of the reports is that if you are taken into hospital and have had only 2 jabs there is roughly a 40% chance you might die compared to the unvaccinated. However after a Booster the relative risk is reduced by a factor of 10. Most people who die are aged 75+ years and most of these are triple vaccinated; this simply reflects that most of the elderly population is vaccinated and the vaccines are not 100% effective. Click for UKHSA COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 16, 21st April 2022 Note: from May these reports will be issued fortnightly. Now the government is reducing testing, gathering statistics about vaccine effectiveness could become more difficult. Vaccinations WorldwideA chart of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website. Click for worldwide statistics Hint: click the country list on the left hand side of the screen to add or remove countries from the chart.
|
Date published | Prevalence (England) | Ratio of people with COVID |
22nd April 2022 | 3,218,700 | 1:17 |
29th April 2022 | 2,408,300 | 1:25 |
Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS
The ZOE COVID Symptom Study predicts 2,889,525 people have symptomatic COVID in the UK and estimates 148,902 new cases per day compared to 217,150 last week.
Prevalence (UK) | Estimated new infections per day | |
Last week | 3,736,847 | 217,150 |
This week |
2,889,525 | 148,902 |
Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by Zoe COVID Symptom Study
According to Zoe, in the last week, prevalence in the UK has fallen by 23% and the number of new daily infections by 31%.
Note: section deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK, but figures can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard - these greatly underestimate the number of infections.
Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel.
Public Health England reports there were 1,560 COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes in the last week, by date reported, bringing the cumulative total to 174,912 (including deaths linked to repeat infections). The daily average fell from 279 to 223 deaths per day, as of 29th April, a fall of 20%.
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
The PHE figures include people who die with COVID but not from it; true COVID related deaths are thought to be roughly one half to two thirds of that number (see ONS figures below).
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 15th April (week 15 of 2022) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs |
Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Deaths 2022 |
Week 15 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 142 | 24 | 1 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 98 | 36 | 3 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 109 | 19 | 2 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 154 | 33 | 4 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 132 | 30 | 0 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 769 | 166 | 11 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 15th April 2022
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
There was 1 death in hospital in Bromsgrove; 1 death in a care home, 1 at home and 1 in hospital in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in a care home and 1 in hospital in Redditch; 1 death in hospital in the city of Worcester; and 2 deaths in care homes and 2 in hospital in Wychavon.
In England and Wales 1,002 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 15th April, 43 more than the week before and a rise of just 4.5%. Of these 215 were in a care home, 94 at home, 21 in a hospice, 663 in hospital and 9 elsewhere.
Note
Adding 12% for Scotland and Northern Ireland suggests about 1,122 UK deaths per week or 160 COVID related deaths per day which is about 65% the PHE COVID (28) average of 246 reported on 15th April.
This suggests about 35% of the COVID (28) deaths reported by PHE are not COVID related, but are people who die with COVID but not from it.
Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths
The next chart shows how ONS deaths rose only 4% in the last week reported, after rising at 10% per week during the previous 3 weeks.
ONS deaths in England and Wales by week of 2022
The latest PHE figures show deaths have begun declining which should be reflected by the ONS figures in a week or two.
The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 29th April 2022.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 1,054 | 15 |
Care hospitals | 73 | 0 |
TOTAL | 1,127 | 15 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths
Note: look for COVID Total announced deaths sheet, then select tab Deaths by Trust
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 8,378 recent deaths for the period 7th January 2022 to 19th March 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variant.
Age band | Number of COVID deaths | % of deaths |
0 - 19 | 19 | 0.2 |
20 - 39 | 81 | 1.0 |
40 - 59 | 557 | 6.7 |
60 - 79 | 2,804 | 33.5 |
80+ | 4,916 | 58.6 |
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band
Those aged 60+ account for 92% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID.
The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is the greatest risk factor but remember that because of vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new infections is about ten times lower than in 2020.
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.
Hospital COVID cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 13,027 | -3,420 |
Patients on ventilation | 302 | -37 |
Patients admitted daily | 1,356 | -609 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 29th April 2022
COVID UK beds fell about 21% this week, while hospital admissions fell 31%.
Points to note:
only 40% these beds are occupied by patients primarily admitted due to severe COVID, the remainder being admitted for other reasons;
of those with incidental COVID half are thought to have contracted COVID in hospital;
For statistics on ICU beds click and explore the link below.
Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and these give a good indication of direction of travel:
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics
Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.
Region | 22nd April 2022 | 29th April 2022 | 15th January 2021 |
England | 12,883 | 9,938 | 33,362 |
London | 2,116 | 1,709 | 7,811 |
Midlands | 2,717 | 2,100 | 5,890 |
Comparison of All beds COVID data for London and Midlands
In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by 23% in England, 19% in London and 23% in the Midlands.
For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.
Note: the majority of COVID patients are though to be aged 75+ years.
Between 18 April 2022 and 24 April 2022, 79 patients went into hospital with Coronavirus. This shows a decrease of -38% compared to the previous 7 days.
There were 130 patients in hospital with Coronavirus on 26 April 2022, 28 less than the week before, of which 1 was on a ventilator.
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
This link also reports deaths.
Between 23 April 2022 and 29 April 2022, there have been 4 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test. This shows no change compared to the previous 7 days.
The number of UK COVID (28) deaths (as recorded by PHE) may increase by up to 1,250 towards 176,200 during the 7 days ending Friday 6th May 2022.
In the county of Worcestershire, based on 79 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of deaths to be 1:11 of admissions, then up to 7 deaths per week can be expected in the middle of May.
From the daily cases reported by Zoe, we expect UK daily hospital admissions could fall to about 950 patients per day next week.
We are probably entering the endemic stage of the disease with a high background level of infection, dipping in the summer and rising in the winter, modulated by new variants to which we may or may not have less protection. Pundits say more deaths than from Flu can be expected in the elderly population plus some cases of Long COVID causing fatigue for many months. Otherwise, we expect the majority of the fully vaccinated population under 60 years to be little affected by COVID-19.
See summary of links section for UCL and IHME modelling projections.
The latest UCL projection is quote:-
The current surge in infections appears to have peaked, with a long-term outlook that can be characterised as a high-prevalence, endemic equilibrium—with fluctuations due to socio-behavioural responses, waning immunity and seasonality effects. The next peak is anticipated in early July.
The 7-day average of daily (certified) deaths per day may fall to a minimum of about 60 per day in late May.
The UCL charts do not rule out deaths rising to 200 or more deaths per day next winter.
In comparison ONS deaths are currently about 160 per day.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
We judge the risk of exposure to the Omicron variant of COVID-19 still to be HIGH in Worcestershire, see our riskometer opposite.
During this period of high prevalence, it is likely that, despite being triple vaccinated, many Seniors will at some time or other become ill with the Omicron variant of COVID-19, including some who had the Delta variant before Christmas.
How this affects us will depend on any previous exposure to the virus giving some natural immunity, and vaccination status.
Those most at risk are said to include:
Seniors aged 75+ years who have not been fully vaccinated;
Seniors aged 75+ whose first booster may be waning;
Pregnant women who have not been vaccinated.
Recently there have been no more than 15 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we currently judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be moderately LOW while the risk of Long COVID is a little higher.
Many people are now taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health. For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:
make sure your COVID and Flu vaccinations are fully up to date - you must have a Booster to obtain significant protection from hospitalisation and death.
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);
ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering, or better still an FFP2 face mask when unavoidably near strangers for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or put a HEPA air purifier in the room;
avoid crowded indoor settings;
self-isolate for 5 to 10 days to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are runny nose, headache, sore throat, tiredness, and sneezing which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold (see notes 3 and 4);
respect others and give them space.
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) The COVID Symptom Study people suggest that if you have symptoms of a common cold there is a fair chance you might have COVID.
4) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.
5) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variant is highly infectious.
Many people we know have caught COVID in the last fortnight and are recovering including a lady in her nineties.
Cases of COVID-19 in the UK, though high, are now declining in all age groups and all regions.
COVID hospital admissions are falling, and beds too, though it takes a little longer to clear people out of hospital.
Ambulance response times do however remain a serious problem with the average delay for category 2 incidents such as heart attack and stroke victims of 1 hour compared to a target of 18 minutes. This is a national scandal and needs urgent government action.
In Denmark COVID-19 is no longer considered a critical threat and it is proposed to let the new wave run through the population. Vaccination is to be suspended on 15th May 2022 possibly until the autumn.
Links to the Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE weekly updates can be found here:-
Click to watch Zoe COVID Symptom Study update on 28th April 2022 presented by Tim Spector.
Click to watch Independent SAGE update on 29th April 2022
The Indie SAGE topic this week is on the significance of Covid surveillance to identify and track new variants.
Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though for now the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca held in reserve.
The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.
Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK
Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.
For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed in 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022 for the population of the UK. The government has now signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.
The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.
Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60+35 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 order cancelled |
A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston,
West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September
2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021. Approved by MHRA April 2022. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Nuvaxovid | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials. Approved by MHRA 3rd Feb 2022. JCVI to advise how vaccine will be used. |
GSK Sanofi | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expected approval and delivery of 7.5M doses in 2022. |
Curevac | 50 ? | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine; disappointing trial results have resulted in the company working on a second generation vaccine. Future uncertain. |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
Note: this data is no longer considered reliable and has been deleted. Figures can however still be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
Note: this section is largely historical. Now the population is vaccinated the government no longer sees testing as important. The availability of PCR tests is being cut back to save money and Lateral Flow tests are no longer free. The government plans to gather future data from ONS surveys.
In order to protect others it is important to get a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with either classic COVID symptoms, or cold and flu like symptoms which can be caused by the Omicron variant.;
There are now two types of test you can get. The more accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.
Click for government guidance on types of tests
Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:
https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test
We feel the website discourages people from seeking a PCR test who don't have all the classic symptoms. If you feel strongly enough, press on answering the questions so as to get your PCR test.
In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.
Alternatively settle for a 'Nasal swab' Lateral Flow Device test in the comfort of your own home (see below).
According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore.
There is also a COVID testing station at the Worcester Royal Hospital for screening patients before admission.
If you cannot get to these you can order a home PCR test kit.
If you test COVID positive you should ideally self-isolate for 5 days or until you feel better.
Lateral Flow Device tests (LFD) can either be booked at Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, or taken at home.
The test is intended to screen those who do not show the classic symptoms of COVID-19 and provides a means to check you are 'virus free' at home - either before visiting an elderly person, going to work, or attending a crowded event. It also provides a means to check whether or not you have Coronavirus if you are feeling poorly with cold and flu like symptoms.
You
can collect home test kits,
for example packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes
of 7 tests, from Malvern library, the Co-op, and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church
Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect
View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the
Enigma Retail Park.
If collecting from a pharmacy you now have to go on-line and get a collection code to present to the pharmacy in order to obtain a pack of 7 tests. This involves giving NHS Test and Trace your email and/or mobile phone number and address.
http://www.gov.uk/get-collect-code
The LFD now comes in two versions.
The Throat and Nose Swab kit;
The Nose Swab only kit (Orient Gene, Acon Flowflex and MP Biomedicals).
(Lateral Flow Device cassette shown on the right).
ACON Flowflex comes in a blue and white pack.
Orient Gene comes in a green and white pack.
MP Biomedicals come in a blue, white and grey pack.
Click for instructions for using the LFD test kits
Leaflet at Boots the Chemist
Note: from 1st April 2022 you will no longer be able to get a collection code for free tests.
The new Nasal swab test kit which only requires a nose swab is the easiest to use and the best one to get but it is not yet widely available. On 10th November 2021 we found Boots in Church Street and Malvern Library were still supplying the old Throat and Nose kit; Murrays in Church Street had the new kits and Malvern library thought the library in St John's Worcester might have the new kits.
Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern
Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.
Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests
In our opinion, many Seniors will find the classic Throat and Nose Swab home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface before swabbing the nose. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.
The Nose Swab kit is by far the best one for testing yourself at home.
If you test COVID positive you should isolate and take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result.
NHS Test and Trace want people to report the result of their home LFD tests within 24 hours at:
www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result
Note: only NHS tests with a QR code can be reported; it is not possible to report privately purchased tests.
This was to help NHS Test and Trace monitor where the issue of the free LFD tests is proving most effective and the spread of the disease.
However, it's tedious to enter your Lateral Flow Test result on the government website and we imagine many people now don't bother.
Nose swab home test kit obtained from Murrays
You
can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your
smart-phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are
able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.
For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com
The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.
There are questions allowing you to enter your vaccine type and whether any side effects; this now includes boosters and flu jabs.
Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.
Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information
If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you may be advised to self-isolate
Note: now isolation is no longer a legal requirement you might as well delete this from your smartphone.
An NHS COVID Pass shows your coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination details and/or test results. This is your COVID-19 status. You may be asked to show your pass to travel abroad
You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status.
Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app
If you don't have a smartphone you should be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.
Click to login from a desktop computer or laptop
You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home; this has to be done within 24 hours.
Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.
Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022
Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID
COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England
UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website
Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview
COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports
Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS
A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.
Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.
Note 3: deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.
Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news
There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.
Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub
Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE
Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 1st May 2022