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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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11th September 2022


Those aged 65+ years can book Autumn booster vaccinations on-line


For more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages.

The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

  • The ONS infection survey

  • Registered deaths (ONS, NHS)

  • NHS hospital bed occupancy, and

  • The Zoe Health Study

Now the epidemic seems largely over in the UK the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer.

As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages.

This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date.



Booster shots

Vaccination Sites

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors


Summary of links

Menu of archived pages



For most people COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health in Worcestershire - at present relatively few people are being admitted to hospital and only a handful a week are dying in a population of approximately 600,000.

The COVID Omicron BA.5 death rate peaked at the end of July 2022 and has since been gradually falling; there is however a little concern about excess deaths (10% or so above the five year average) which needs to be explained; it may perhaps be because patients could not see their doctor or treatment was delayed during the pandemic.

While hospital admissions have continued to fall, the Zoe Health Study recently reports a slight upturn in new infections in those aged 0 - 17 years.

There may be a further rise as children go back to school and as winter sets in but the effects of that may not be felt for several weeks.


Any upturn may either be reduced or negated by the NHS Autumn booster campaign; this will depend on how many step forward to be jabbed (see Booster shots section below).

Some people have already received an email invitation to get their Autumn booster, sometimes followed by letter from the NHS. A few Seniors have also had an invitation from their GP surgery.

When we looked there were no vaccination centres in Malvern offering timed appointments that could be booked on-line, but today it looks as though you can book appointments at Claremont House Pharmacy in Barnards Green.

The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed with the rollout of Autumn boosters.

According to SW Healthcare the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccination will in future be either at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics and roving 'Vaccine Vans'.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

New Court Surgery at Prospect View is waiting for stocks of Flu vaccine to be delivered before calling forward eligible patients; COVID Autumn booster shots will be offered at the same time. The surgery asks patients to wait to be called so as not to overload the telephone booking system.

Stop press:

Despite the Three Counties Showground being closed, the  NHS website still mentions walk-in appointments.

Click to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

Today this lists Claremont House Pharmacy in Barnards Green.

Open next week:

Wednesday 14th September 4 pm to 7 pm

Thursday 15th September 10 am to 5 pm

The Pharmacy says the new Moderna bivalent vaccine will be offered.

Flu jabs can also be obtained.

So if you want to get your Autumn booster now you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont Pharmacy, or wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery in due course.

What happens if you get sick

Because the Wuhan vaccines rarely stop people catching the Omicron variant and prevalence is still moderately high, do not be surprised if you catch COVID despite being fully vaccinated. Infection 12 months ago rarely stops people getting sick for a second time.

Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Many of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised take it easy until fully recovered.


Any precautions to take are now a personal decision.

Click to view our advice

This bookmark will take you  to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see.

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

Booster shots

Spring Boosters are no longer available; instead an Autumn booster jab is being offered to those aged 50+ starting with the most elderly.

From 12th September those aged 65+ years can book Autumn Boosters.

The NHS should contact you when it is your turn to book - you do not need to contact the NHS.

For more information click this link:-

NHS invites more than four million people for Autumn booster as care homes set to get first jabs

You can book your Autumn Booster on-line:-

Click for NHS National Booking Service

At present you could have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment.

Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time.

We have received an invitation from the NHS by email which includes a link for finding walk-in centres:

Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

You can currently book on-line if you are aged 65 years or over and it is at least 3 months since your last jab.

Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1.

The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs courtesy of NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire which mentions Spring Boosters on its website but not Autumn Booster plans.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

Vaccination Sites

Government information about where you can get vaccinated appears somewhat fragmented.

The NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 7th September 2022 listing vaccinations centres under the categories:

  • Pharmacies

  • GP led vaccination services

  • Vaccination centres

  • Hospital Hubs

This does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans.

Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link and Claremont House in Barnards Green.

It would appear Claremont House has vaccine and perhaps Evans will in due course.

Prospect View is the only GP centre listed in Malvern but New Court is currently not offering Autumn Booster appointments. Some residents use Upton Surgery which has vaccine.

The Malvern Showground is still listed as a Vaccine Centre but according to SW Healthcare it has closed.

No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire.

Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites

How to get vaccinated for COVID-19

For older information about how to get vaccinated, which may now be out of date, select an archived report eg

Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

More about vaccinations

For historic information about the vaccination programme select an archived report eg

Go to 'Vaccination' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

Orange triangleNumber of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

  • The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.

  • The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.

  • PHE data gathered from PCR testing, mostly now in hospitals. Hospitals are stopping surveillance and will now only be testing patients showing symptoms. Will not now therefore report either COVID in the general population or asymptomatic cases in hospital.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimated that 770,800 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 28th August; a fall of about 14% since the previous report.

Note: the methodology for ONS testing has changed and it is rumoured the sample size has been reduced.

Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

Date report published Prevalence (England) Ratio of people with COVID
5th August 2022 2,106,000 1:25
19th August 2022 1,432,900 1:40
26th August 2022 1,211,100 1:45
2nd September 2022 893,300 1:60
12th September 2022 770,800 1:70

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.

  Prevalence (UK) Estimated new infections per day
26th August 2022 1,584,981 102,457
3rd September 2022
1,488,559 106,548
9th September 2022 1,531,318 118,448

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study

According to the latest Zoe figures prevalence has risen by 3% in the UK last week suggesting about 1:44 people test positive for COVID compare to 1:70 reported by ONS, while daily cases have risen by 11%.

ZOE estimate the Reproduction Ratio (R) is close to 1.

The figures reported in the latest ZOE update suggest that infections have remained fairly level in adults, but that cases in those aged 0 - 17 years have risen slightly. As children go back to school and mix, cases could rise further, with transmission then to parents. However those under 60 years rarely suffer severe illness so this, by itself, may not affect hospital numbers much.

Numbers testing COVID positive in Worcestershire (PHE)

Note: this section has been deleted due to COVID testing being run down in the UK; figures can still be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus dashboard, but these greatly underestimate the true number of infections. The direction of travel in Malvern is down.

Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Directional arrowNumber of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as  they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that COVID weekly deaths have been falling.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 183 per day about 18th July, then steadily falling to 63 by 29th August.

Note that some of the deaths reported by PHE will be people who die with COVID but not from it.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 26th August (week 34 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table, which gives the provisional total of deaths reported in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting over public holidays.

Deaths by 'date of death' is a more accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Districts of
Week 34 Population
Bromsgrove 164 142 49 4 98,529
Malvern Hills 61 98 56 1 77,545
Redditch 108 109 38 0 85,317
Worcester 87 134 42 1 103,542
Wychavon 157 154 70 1 126,240
Wyre Forest 171 132 51 0 100,957
TOTAL 748 769 306 7 592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 26th August 2022.

There was 1 death at home, 2 in hospital and 1 elsewhere in Bromsgrove; 1 death at home in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in a care home in the city of Worcester; and 1 death in hospital in Wychavon.

This year COVID related deaths in Worcestershire have been 6% of deaths from all causes.

So far 24% of deaths from all causes have been in care homes, and just under 26% of COVID related deaths have been in care homes. Therefore the risk of dying from COVID in a care home seems little different to that in the general population.

In England and Wales 451 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 26th August, 98 less than the week before and a fall of 18%. Of these 63 were in a care home, 40 at home, 8 in a hospice, 337 in hospital and 3 elsewhere.

Note: it's possible the number of deaths reported this week could be a tad low due to delayed reporting over the Autumn Bank Holiday.

Deaths in Wales represent about 5% of the total.

So far this year in England and Wales 25,477 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.

Chart of ONS deaths

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

Note: the steps in the chart above in weeks 18 and 22 were probably due to delayed reporting over the Easter, Mayday and Jubilee holidays.

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths peaked at 120 deaths per day on 18th July; since gradually falling to 69 deaths per day by 9th August.

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 8th September 2022.

Worcestershire Cumulative deaths Past week
Acute hospitals 1,157 3
Care hospitals 81 0
TOTAL 1,238 3

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

It looks as though the death rate in the county has fallen a tad.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year

Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals.

A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported.

With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%.

Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England.

England peaked at about 800 (ONS) deaths per week at the end of July (now about 480), so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of no more than 8 deaths per week or 1 per day.

To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age.

For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Age band Number of COVID deaths % of deaths
0 - 19 8 0.3
20 - 39 25 0.9
40 - 59 165 5.7
60 - 79 1,010 34.9
80+ 1,692 58.4

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

triangleHealthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Hospital COVID cases (England) Number Change in last week
Patients currently in hospital 4,864 -794
Patients on ventilation 117 -27
Patients admitted daily 518 -71

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 8th September 2022

Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.

The daily number of COVID patients admitted to hospital continues to fall. See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.

COVID daily NHS hospital admissions in England

The next chart shows how COVID daily hospital admissions have varied since 1st April 2022.

Note: shows the number of patients admitted in previous 24 hours where patient known to have COVID-19 plus patients diagnosed in hospital with COVID-19 in previous 24 hours.

COVID daily hospital admissions

NHS England - COVID daily admissions to 29th August

In the last week hospital admissions continued downwards.

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website and are another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Region 31st August 2022 7th September 2022 15th January 2021
England 5,658 4,864 33,362
London 1,073 899 7,811
Midlands 1,005 963 5,890

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by  14% in England, 7% in London and 4% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy peaked in England about 18th July. The peak in beds is about one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions.

COVID beds

COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st April to 31st August 2022

Deaths can be expected to follow a similar shaped curve to bed occupancy delayed by one week or so.

Green triangleWorcestershire hospital beds

Between 30 August 2022 and 5 September 2022, 32 patients went into hospital with coronavirus; two more than last reported.

There were 41 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 7 September 2022 none on a ventilator; 12 less than previously reported.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 28 August 2022 and 3 September 2022, there was 1 death within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

Forecast for the week ahead

We expect between 400 and 450 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales (as registered by the ONS) in week 35 ending 2nd September, to be reported on 13th September.

The figure could be slightly inflated by delayed reporting of deaths over the Autumn Bank Holiday.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 32 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 3 COVID deaths per week in the second half of September.

NHS COVID bed occupancy will likely continue to fall.

Longer term outlook

Theoretically we were supposed to have entered the endemic stage of the disease with a high background level of infection, falling in the summer as more time is spent outdoors, and then rising  in  the winter, but that is not what happened.

Factors have been the new Omicron variants against which the vaccines offered little protection from infection; vaccinations waning in effectiveness; booster shots; overseas travel during school holidays; and super-spreader events such as summer music festivals and sports events

Consequently it has become difficult for computer models to predict what happens next.

Currently there are no signs of a new variant of concern so infections could fall during September, except for the fact children go back to school and students to university, which could increase infections; including amongst their parents.

Based on current rates of fall in COVID beds we hazard a guess the ONS death rate could fall to between 360 and 400 deaths per week or about 54 deaths per day in England and Wales by the end of September.

New infections may then rise in October/November due to educational mixing and more time being spent indoors with the windows shut.

To counter this the NHS is offering Autumn booster shots to those aged 50+ years to protect the most vulnerable from serious illness, starting with the oldest.

However we wonder to what extent there will be vaccine fatigue - that is people who for one reason or another do not get their booster shot, for example because they think COVID has gone away, they have had it, or that perhaps after 4 jabs there may not be much additional benefit.

A new factor is the dramatic surge in inflation and the cost of energy. The danger is - if the poor cannot afford adequately to eat and heat their homes those that fall sick with COVID will more likely be hospitalised putting a greater strain on the NHS. Hopefully the proposed cap on energy prices will largely address this issue.

UCL modelling charts suggesting the COVID death rate may fall to a minimum of 35 deaths per day, that is 245 certified deaths per week by the end of September, which is credible; but concerningly the charts hint at a possible rise towards 1,400 deaths per week during the winter months.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

What happens will greatly depend on the uptake and effectiveness of the Autumn booster shots, human behaviour, such as mask wearing, and the effect of inflation and energy pricing on the public's health.

We can be fairly sure that the COVID death rate will rise slightly in the winter; but we'll have to wait and see by how much.

In our opinion, providing the death rate remains below 700 deaths per week it is unlikely either the public or the government will be concerned.

Advice for SeniorsCOVID risk medium

We currently judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 as MODERATE in the UK.

See our riskometer opposite.

Many people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards to remember are to:

  • make sure your COVID vaccinations are fully up to date

  • wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

  • if infection rates become high, ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering,  or better an FFP2 face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

  • SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

  • preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;

  • avoid crowded indoor settings;

  • avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;

  • ideally self-isolate for 5 to 10 days to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are sore throat, headache, blocked nose, cough, and runny nose, which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold; other symptoms may include sneezing, tiredness and muscle aches and pains.

  • respect others and give them space;

  • looking further ahead, don't forget to get your annual Flu jab when it next becomes available; that is usually sometime in September/October.


1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms).

5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries.



This week

Walking around Malvern it looks as though COVID has gone away. People rarely wear masks in shops and it seems you no longer have to wear a mask at GP Surgeries

So far COVID hospital admissions have continued to fall despite the ZOE Health Study reporting cases levelling off and rising slightly in those aged 0 - 17 years.

The rate of fall of the COVID death rate seems to be slowing down and we speculate that the ONS UK death rate won't fall much below 350 deaths per week before beginning to rise in the winter.

However, not to worry, as the death rate is currently well within the band 0 - 700 deaths per week whereby COVID can be considered just another of those risk factors which affect the elderly, like cancer, stroke, heart attack and the flu.

About Autumn Booster vaccinations

Seniors aged 65+ years can now book an Autumn COVID booster jab on-line.

It looks like the vaccine is only just beginning to be distributed, so you might initially have to travel out of town to get a jab. Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery, or for new walk-in clinics to be announced.

The Prospect View Telephone Answering Service says the Surgery is waiting for delivery of Flu Vaccine. Once that has been delivered reception will contact eligible patients asking them to book a time. COVID booster jabs can be offered at the same appointment. It is asked patients wait to be invited so as not to flood the phone system with enquiries.

A GP Surgery in Upton upon Severn is already taking bookings for Autumn Booster vaccinations with some appointments next week.

The  NHS website mentions walk-in appointments, but note the centres may be different to those used last Christmas.

Click to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

The NHS website seems to be saying that COVID vaccine will no longer be given to children aged 5 born after 1st September 2022. It is no longer clear to us exactly what the policy on the vaccination of young children is.

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE  and pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 8th September 2022 presented by Tim Spector.

Cases are rising slightly in the 0 - 17 years age group.

The last Independent SAGE briefing was on 12th August.

Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 12th August  2022

The update planned for 9th September has been cancelled as a mark of respect following the death of Queen Elizabeth II on 8th September 2022.

Dr John Campbell talks about new vaccines in his 7th September video. Vaccines for BA.4 and BA.5 has been approved in the US despite little testing, while the UK has approved vaccines that target BA.1.

Click for Dr John Campbell's talk on new FDA BA.5 vaccines

List of vaccines

Autumn bivalent boosters

A second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above.

An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.

Click for government press release - First bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine approved by UK medicines regulator

The earlier vaccine story

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

 Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

 The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

COVID-19 vaccine Doses ordered (million) Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C 40+60+35 Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge 100 Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C 7+10 Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose 60+40
A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021.

Approved by MHRA April 2022.
Janssen, single dose 20 Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Nuvaxovid 60 A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials. Approved by MHRA 3rd Feb 2022. JCVI to advise how vaccine will be used.
GSK Sanofi 60 Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expected approval and delivery of 7.5M doses in 2022.
Curevac 50 ? Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine; disappointing trial results have resulted in the company working on a second generation vaccine. Future uncertain.

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government


Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:




About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body


Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test


About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:




UK government Coronavirus guidance

See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website


COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021



Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas



UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard


HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future


A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated



A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths



Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS

A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.


MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.

COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19

NICE guidance on managing Long COVID


The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info


World Health Organisation info



Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.

American Association of Retired People (AARP)



A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.

Note 3:  deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.

Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard



Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia


Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE

Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter


SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)


Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland


Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales


The Malvern Hills logo

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own