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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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20th November 2022

PREVALENCE, COVID BED OCCUPANCY AND DEATH RATE FALLING

Those aged 50+ years can book Autumn booster vaccinations

Preamble

For more than two years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing has been run down and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so the daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation, and we have deleted our section on testing; this can however be found on archived pages.

The only remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

• The ONS infection survey

• Registered deaths (ONS, NHS)

• NHS hospital bed occupancy, and

• The Zoe Health Study

Now the epidemic seems largely over in the UK the numbers are of less importance, but we'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer.

As sections become no longer relevant we are deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages.

This page will continue to be updated each weekend using Friday's data, nominally with Sunday's date.

Contents

Summary

What happens if you get sick

Booster shots

Vaccination Sites

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors

Annex/commentary

Summary of links

Bibliography

Menu of archived pages

Summary

The good news is that the Autumn Wave of COVID-19 peaked about 20th October and in consequence hospital bed occupancy and the death rate linked to COVID have been falling.

For most, COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health. In Worcestershire relatively few people are being admitted to hospital with severe illness and no more than a dozen patients a week, and typically half that, are dying in a population of approximately 600,000.

However a respiratory infection has reminded us that COVID-19 is not the only bug doing the rounds this winter that can leave us feeling very poorly.

Winter Wave

University College London modelling suggests the Autumn Wave could be followed by a Winter Wave starting to build up in late November and peaking in January 2023. If that comes about, weekly deaths might fall no further than 350 before possibly rising towards 1,000 in January. That's a lot, but nothing for most people in good health to be concerned about.

Should there be a Winter Wave, it is most unlikely to restrict celebrations this Christmas, but it could push daily deaths up a bit in the New Year.

What happens if you get sick

If you are feeling poorly there is now a fair chance it won't be COVID but some other winter respiratory illness; according to the Zoe Health Study only 30% or so of respiratory infections are currently due to COVID.

If you have a stash of Lateral Flow Tests you can test yourself at home. However be aware that a negative test does not guarantee you don't have COVID. Whatever the virus best stay away from other people until you feel better.

Do not be surprised if you catch COVID because prevalence is still quite high and vaccination, while protecting from severe illness, rarely prevents infection.

Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Some of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered.

A small number of patients report debilitating symptoms for months after so-called recovery. For example see Dez Medinger and Danny Altmann's book The Long COVID Handbook in bibliography.

Precautions

Any precautions to take are now a personal decision.

Click to view our advice

The bookmark below will take you  to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see.

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

Booster shots

An Autumn booster jab is being offered to all those aged 50+ years and patients designated Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, such as with a severely weakened immune system.

Note: you should not book if it is less than 3 months since your last vaccination or you have had COVID within the last 2 weeks.

Seniors are advised to get both the COVID booster and flu jabs in order to reduce the likelyhood of severe illness and hospitalisation. The NHS advises it is safe to have both jabs at the same time, but to minimise side effects you might want to consider having them a week apart.

Take up is good. Independent SAGE say more than 74% of those aged 65+ years in England have already had their COVID Autumn Booster, and 58% of those aged 50 to 64 years.

Either the NHS or your GP Surgery (or both) should contact you when it is your turn to book; either by email, text message or letter. You should not need to contact them.

The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed slightly with the rollout of Autumn boosters.

According to SW Healthcare, representing GP Surgeries, the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccinations will either be at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics, else roving 'Vaccine Vans' which are otherwise known as 'Jab-Vans'.

That is not the complete picture as some pharmacies such as Claremont House in Barnards Green and Evans in Malvern Link will also be offering walk-in and timed appointments.

To book an Autumn Booster on-line:-

Click for NHS National Booking Service

Note: you may sometimes have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment, depending on vaccine availability.

Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time.

Don't forget to check the mobile phone you have registered with your GP surgery for text messages.

If you think you have been forgotten or don't have a mobile phone, phone your GP surgery to book an appointment.

Our email from the NHS included a link for finding walk-in centres:

Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1.

The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs in conjunction with NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

Hint: click Vaccine Rollout on the navigation bar at the top of the page and then Vaccine Van for pop-ups.

When we last looked pop-up venues for Malvern had been deleted from the calendar. The nearest is St Peter's Baptist church  near Tesco on the outskirts of Worcester.

In summary, if you want to get your Autumn booster you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont House and Evans Pharmacies, look for a pop-up, or perhaps easiest contact your GP Surgery and book your flu jab at the same time.

Vaccination Sites

The NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 5th October 2022 listing vaccination centres under the categories:

• Pharmacies

• GP led vaccination services

• Vaccination centres

• Hospital Hubs

Note: this does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans.

Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites

Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link, and Claremont House in Barnards Green.

Prospect View is the only GP Health centre listed in Malvern.

(No information listed for Whiteacres Medical Centre, Malvern Link; do tell us if you know)

 Upton Surgery is used by some residents of Malvern and surrounds.

The Malvern Showground remains listed as a Vaccination Centre despite SW Healthcare saying it has closed. If you know the situation there do please let us know.

No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire.

Note: for historical information about how to get vaccinated, which may be out of date, select an archived report eg

Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

Number of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

• The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.

• The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.

• PHE data gathered from PCR testing mostly now in hospitals. Hospitals have stopped surveillance and are only testing patients showing symptoms - now the government has declared the pandemic over PHE no longer measures the prevalence of COVID nationwide.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimates that 940,700 people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 8th November 2022; a sharp fall of 29% on the previous week.

Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

In Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland prevalence is similar to that in England.

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study

According to the later Zoe figures, estimated prevalence fell by 8%, and daily cases by just 1% in the UK last week.

The slowing fall is confirmed by figures for Hospital bed occupancy so it could be cases are going to plateau and possibly then start rising.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as  they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that in real-time weekly deaths have  probably been falling for two to three weeks.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at about 148 on 19th October, then gradually falling to 89 by 7th November.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag real time by 10 - 14 days due to the administrative delay in submitting and processing reports, and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by Local Authority providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 4th November (week 44 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are now derived from  Table 1 of the ONS Death Registrations spreadsheet using the in-built filters. This gives the provisional total of deaths registered in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting, for example, due to public holidays.

Deaths by Welsh Health Boards are excluded to avoid duplication as these are totals of Local authorities.

Death occurrences by 'date of death' is the most accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 4th November 2022.

There were 2 deaths in hospital in Bromsgrove; 1 death in a care home and 2 in hospital in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in hospital in Redditch; 1 death in a care home and 1 in hospital in the city of Worcester; 2 deaths in hospital in Wychavon; and 1 death in hospital in Wyre Forest.

In England and Wales 649 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 4th November 2022 exactly the same as the previous week, which is a bit fishy. Of these 95 were in care homes, 51 at home, 17 in a hospice, 483 in hospital and 3 elsewhere.

Note: based on falling hospital admissions and COVID beds, the weekly death rate should have fallen in the last week reported. In fact deaths in England went down a tad and those in Wales went up. These provisional figures are almost certainly being distorted by fluctuating administrative delay in the issuing and processing of death certificates, for example due to public holidays.

So far this year in England and Wales 29,923 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths rose to 95 on 14th October, but since fallen to 87 per day on 21st October.

In comparison averaged over recent years roughly 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures (new)

The chart below shows how daily COVID hospital deaths in England have varied since 1st July 2022. The main paint to note is that deaths due to the Autumn Wave peaked in the middle of October and have been falling since.

Note: figures for recent days may be incomplete.

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 17th November 2022.

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

Note: deaths vary considerably week to week.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year (overview)

Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals.

A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported.

With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be less than 0.5%.

Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England.

COVID deaths in England are now no more than 700 per week, so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of fewer than 7 deaths per week.

To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age.

For that reason most people now seem to be taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

According to the Coronavirus Dashboard sex is an additional risk factor - males are roughly 50% more likely to die than women.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 17th November 2022

Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.

See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website providing another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds fell by 22% in England, 3% in London and 13% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy due to the Autumn Wave peaked in England about 20th October 2022 and has been falling, though more slowly in recent days.

The peak in beds is usually one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions, and deaths lag beds by a further week.

COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st July to 16th November 2022

Worcestershire hospital beds

Between 8 November 2022 and 14 November 2022, 25 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows an increase of 19% compared to the previous 7 days. There were 48 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 16 November 2022 four less than the week before; one on a ventilator.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 6 November 2022 and 12 November 2022, there have been no deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

Forecast for the week ahead

As a consequence of the Autumn Wave we expect no more than 550 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales (as registered by the ONS) in week 45 ending 11th November, to be reported on 22nd November.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 25 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 3 COVID deaths per week at the end of November.

NHS COVID bed occupancy in England could fall by a further 10% next week.

Longer term outlook (up to Christmas)

According to Independent SAGE there are many new Omicron variants circulating but so far none are seen as a variant of concern which might cause a further wave of COVID.

Independent SAGE say Omicron BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 now make up about 50% of cases.

Factors favouring a possible increase in infections are:

• new variants which may escape the vaccines to some extent;

• fewer precautions being taken;

• vaccines waning in effectiveness especially in the under 50s;

• mixing of unvaccinated children at school;

• transmission from children to teachers and parents;

• the general population beginning to spend more time indoors with the windows shut.

At present these factors seem to be strongly countered by the Autumn Booster programme, and natural immunity following infection.

Hospital admissions, COVID bed occupancy, the death rate and the Zoe Health Study all indicate the present Autumn Wave is over the worst, but there is no way of knowing how future cases will evolve during the remainder of the winter.

We speculate cases could fall for the next 2 to 3 weeks and later rise due to friends and  families mingling in December and the New Year. The remaining profile of daily cases could turn out somewhat like the northern ridge of the Malvern Hills with cases rising again in the New Year.

The northern ridge of the Malvern Hills

Given that COVID hospital bed occupancy peaked at 10,608 beds in England, and has already fallen to 5,010 it's possible the ONS death rate will fall from 649 in week 44 to about 330  deaths per week in England and Wales during the next fortnight or so.

UCL modelling has been suggesting that the death rate could fall to a minimum of about 350 deaths per week in November. Cases could then begin to rise in late November, peaking in the second half of January, with associated deaths briefly rising towards about 1,000 possibly as high as 1,500 deaths per week. We are now referring to this projection as the Winter Wave.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

There is no certainty there will be a Winter Wave but a slowing in the fall in daily cases reported by the Zoe Health Study and NHS bed occupancy in recent days suggests that cases may be approaching a plateau and could turn upwards in a week or two.

Additional deaths due to the Winter Wave

Things don't look too bad. Prior to Christmas the UK COVID-19 death rate looks set to remain below 700 deaths per week. It has been our opinion that as long as the COVID death rate remained below that number neither the public nor the government would be concerned. This threshold now looks unlikely to be exceeded during the remainder of 2022, but could be topped in January and February 2023.

We doubt many will be concerned by a 'blip'  - possibly of the order of 10,000 additional UK COVID deaths amongst OAPs this winter. Flu and Excess Deaths (above the normal average) could yet turn out a much greater threat.

To put things in perspective, Worcestershire's share might only be of the order of 100 COVID related deaths.

In a population of 600,000 few will be concerned about that as, barring new variants of concern, the vast majority (we estimate 99.98%) can be expected to survive any winter bout of COVID-19.

Advice for Seniors

We judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 remains quite HIGH in England, but remember there are other respiratory viruses circulating that could make you feel just as sick.

See our riskometer opposite.

Many, perhaps most, healthy people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards are to:

• make sure your COVID and FLU vaccinations are fully up to date

• wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

• ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering,  or better an FFP2 face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

• SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

• preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;

• avoid crowded indoor settings;

• avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;

• ideally self-isolate to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are sore throat, runny nose, blocked nose, headache and cough, which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold; other symptoms may include sneezing, tiredness and muscle aches and pains.

• respect others and give them space;

 Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms). No information yet on the efficacy of the new bivalent vaccines.

5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries.

Annex

Commentary

This week

After two weeks feeling very poorly recovered from respiratory illness displaying many of the symptoms of COVID-19. However, three (nasal swab) Lateral Flow Tests two days apart proved negative.

Nothing of significance to report in the media

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE  and sometimes pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 17th November 2022

COVID not falling so rapidly and may be beginning to turn up in children.

Cold/flu like illnesses three times more likely than COVID.

Feedback on Zoe  Intermittent Fasting (IF) study.

Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 18th November 2022

Join Independent SAGE for a discussion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 with guests Prof David L Robertson and Prof Stuart Neil; session hosted by Dr Stephen Griffin and Prof Aris Katzourakis; chaired by Prof Martin McKee and Dr Duncan Robertson on numbers.

Independent SAGE do not necessarily agree that COVID-19 may have escaped from Wuhan laboratory.

List of vaccines

Autumn bivalent boosters

A second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above.

An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.

Click for government press release - First bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine approved by UK medicines regulator

The earlier vaccine story

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

 Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

 The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Summary of Links

Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website

COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021

Tiers

Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas

Statistics

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Modelling

A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths

Reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS

A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/

MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.

COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19

NICE guidance on managing Long COVID

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.

Note 3:  deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.

Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE

Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland

Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales

Bibliography

Woolhouse, Professor Mark, The Year the World went Mad, published 2022 by Sandstone Press Ltd, ISBN: 978-1-913207-94-3

Medinger Dez, Altmann Danny, The Long Covid Handbook, Penguin Books, 2022. Kindle version available.

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own