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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

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11th December 2022

LIFE RETURNS TO NORMAL, COVID JUST ANOTHER VIRUS

Incidence of all respiratory conditions rising due to cold weather

Preamble

For nearly three years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found.

During the epidemic Public Health England was split into the UK Health Security Agency and Office for Health Improvements and Disparities. However for simplicity, in this blog, we have continued to refer to this as PHE data.

Testing was run down many months ago and the public can no longer record the result of Lateral Flow tests so those daily cases reported on the Coronavirus Dashboard greatly underestimate the actual situation.

The chief remaining sources of data indicating direction of travel are:

• The ONS infection survey (all nations of UK);

• The Zoe Health Study;

• Registered deaths in England and Wales reported by ONS;

• Hospital deaths reported by NHS England, and;

• Hospital admissions and bed occupancy reported by NHS England.

We'll carry on with our blog for a little while longer as the epidemic passes and life returns to normal.

As sections become no longer relevant we have been deleting them, but you can always refer back to archived pages.

This page will continue to be updated weekly nominally with Sunday's date.

Contents

Summary

What happens if you get sick

Booster shots

Vaccination Sites

Number of cases

Number of deaths

Healthcare numbers

Forecast for the week ahead

Longer term outlook

Advice for seniors

Annex/commentary

Summary of links

Bibliography

Menu of archived pages

Summary

The daily number of new cases of COVID-19 has gently begun rising heralding the expected UK Winter Wave.

Cases are expected to continue rising into January, but for the majority COVID no longer represents a critical threat to health.

In Worcestershire relatively few people are being admitted to hospital with severe illness and typically no more than a handful a week are dying in a population of approximately 600,000 if that.

COVID-19 has become endemic in the UK; that is it can be regularly found in the community, and is just another of many viruses circulating against which the majority of the population has built up significant immunity.

Winter Wave or Ripple

The Winter Wave expected by some commentators may yet turn out no more than a ripple, but it could have a significant impact on the crisis in the NHS.

The latest University College London modelling suggests  cases  will start rising in early December reaching a maximum possibly little higher than the Autumn wave in late January 2023. Should that comes about weekly UK deaths might fall no further than 350 before possibly rising towards 850 in January - that may seem a lot but is nothing for people to be directly concerned about.

Any Winter Wave would be most unlikely to restrict celebrations this Christmas, but could briefly push weekly COVID deaths up a little in the New Year.

Crisis in the NHS

We think it possible the Winter Wave of COVID-19 might push NHS England COVID Bed Occupancy up to somewhere between 8,500 and 12,000 in January, which together with an estimated 13,000 patients awaiting discharge but unable to be sent home, and possible strikes by nurses could contribute to pressure on the NHS.

These factors will likely result in some patients failing to get timely treatment and Excess deaths several times those currently due to COVID could be reported by the ONS in future months.

What happens if you get sick with COVID

If you are feeling poorly there is now a fair chance it won't be COVID but some other winter respiratory illness; according to the Zoe Health Study only 30% or so of respiratory infections are currently due to COVID.

If you have a stash of Lateral Flow Tests you can test yourself at home. However be aware that a negative test does not guarantee you don't have COVID. Whatever the virus best stay away from other people until you feel better.

Do not be surprised if you catch COVID because prevalence is still quite high and vaccination, while protecting from severe illness, has rarely in the past prevented infection.

Some may either show no symptoms or have a mild fever, sore throat, general aches and pains, and quickly get over it; while others could feel quite poorly and spend between two and five days in bed, with it taking five to ten days or so to recover.

Some of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered.

A small number of patients report debilitating symptoms for months after so-called recovery. For example see Dez Medinger and Danny Altmann's book The Long COVID Handbook in bibliography.

Precautions

Nowadays few people seem to be taking precautions - for many months that has been a personal decision.

Click to view our advice

The bookmark below will take you  to the Worcestershire County Council webpage links at the end - there is little new to see.

Click for Worcestershire Dashboard and associated links

Booster shots

An Autumn booster jab is being offered to all those aged 50+ years and patients designated Clinically Extremely Vulnerable, such as with a severely weakened immune system.

Note: you should not book if it is less than 3 months since your last vaccination or you have had COVID within the last 2 weeks.

Seniors are advised to get both the COVID booster and flu jabs in order to reduce the likelyhood of severe illness and hospitalisation. The NHS advises it is safe to have both jabs at the same time, but to minimise side effects you might want to consider having them a week apart.

Independent SAGE say take-up is 90% in  those aged 75+ years, 77% in those aged 65 - 74, but only 55% in those aged 50 - 64 years.

Lately there seems to have been no government push to get more of the over 50s boosted.

Either the NHS or your GP Surgery (or both) should contact you when it is your turn to book; either by email, text message or letter. You should not need to contact them.

The arrangements for getting vaccinated have changed slightly with the rollout of Autumn boosters.

According to SW Healthcare, representing GP Surgeries, the centre at the Three Counties Showground has closed and vaccinations will either be at GP Surgeries, or at walk-in 'Pop-Up' Clinics, else roving 'Vaccine Vans' which are otherwise known as 'Jab-Vans'.

That is not the complete picture as some pharmacies such as Claremont House in Barnards Green and Evans in Malvern Link may be offering walk-in and timed appointments.

To book an Autumn Booster on-line:-

Click for NHS National Booking Service

Note: you may sometimes have to travel out of town to get an Autumn booster appointment, depending on vaccine availability.

Alternatively you can wait to be contacted by your GP Surgery and in due course get your Flu vaccine at the same time.

Don't forget to check the mobile phone you have registered with your GP surgery for text messages.

If you think you have been forgotten or don't have a mobile phone, phone your GP surgery to book an appointment.

Our email from the NHS included a link for finding walk-in centres:

Click this NHS link to find a walk-in coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccination site

Depending on availability you could be offered either of the original Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, or the new Pfizer and Moderna bivalent vaccines which protect against both the original Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1.

The SW Healthcare website explains the Worcestershire arrangements that are gradually being put in place by GPs in conjunction with NHS Herefordshire and Worcestershire.

Click for SW Healthcare information about where to get your vaccination in Worcestershire

Hint: click Vaccine Rollout on the navigation bar at the top of the page and then Vaccine Van for pop-ups.

In summary, if you want to get your Autumn booster you can either book an on-line appointment, possibly having to travel out of town, look for a local walk-in centre such as Claremont House and Evans Pharmacies, look for a pop-up, or perhaps easiest contact your GP Surgery and book your flu jab at the same time.

Vaccination Sites

The NHS England website has a spreadsheet updated 5th October 2022 listing vaccination centres under the categories:

• Pharmacies

• GP led vaccination services

• Vaccination centres

• Hospital Hubs

Note: this does not mention plans for pop-ups or vaccination-vans.

Click for NHS England Vaccination Sites

Two pharmacies in Malvern are listed Evans in Malvern Link, and Claremont House in Barnards Green.

Prospect View is the only GP Health centre listed in Malvern.

(No information listed for Whiteacres Medical Centre, Malvern Link; do tell us if you know)

 Upton Surgery is used by some residents of Malvern and surrounds.

The Malvern Showground remains listed as a Vaccination Centre despite SW Healthcare saying it has closed. If you know the situation there do please let us know.

No hospital hubs are listed for Worcestershire.

Note: for historical information about how to get vaccinated, which may be out of date, select an archived report eg

Go to 'How to Get Vaccinated' section of the 7th August 2022 blog

Number of cases

There are now three sources reporting the prevalence of COVID-19 in the UK.

• The ONS which conducts a weekly random survey by collecting nose and throat swabs from the public for PCR tests, and analysis for variants.

• The ZOE Health Study, whereby participating members of the public log their symptoms, tests and vaccines.

• PHE data gathered from PCR testing mostly now in hospitals. Hospitals have stopped surveillance and are only testing patients showing symptoms - now the government has declared the pandemic over PHE no longer measures the prevalence of COVID nationwide.

ONS infection survey

ONS estimates that 941,700  people in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 26th November 2022; a rise of 8% in 5 days.

Click for latest Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK

Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS

Prevalence is estimated 1:70 in Wales; 1:60 in Scotland; and 1:50 in Northern Ireland (rising).

Zoe Health Study

The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.

Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study

According to the more recent Zoe figures, estimated prevalence has risen by 4% and daily cases by 18% during the last week; the direction of travel is confirmed by figures for Hospital bed occupancy also creeping up.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as  they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that weekly deaths have  been falling for several weeks. However a slight uptick in hospital bed occupancy suggests the real-time death rate may be approaching a plateau after which deaths could rise a little.

PHE figures

The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at about 148 on 19th October, then gradually falling to 54 daily deaths by 28th November.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag real time by 10 - 14 days due to the administrative delay in submitting and processing reports, and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.

Click for ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by Local Authority providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 25th November (week 47 of 2022) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are now derived from  Table 1 of the ONS Death Registrations spreadsheet using the in-built filters. This gives the provisional total of deaths registered in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting, for example, due to public holidays.

Deaths by Welsh Health Boards are excluded to avoid duplication as these are totals of Local authorities.

Death occurrences by 'date of death' is the most accurate metric but takes longer to be confirmed.

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 25th November 2022.

No COVID deaths were recorded in Worcestershire in the last week reported; a milestone event.

In England and Wales 348 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 25th November, 74 less than the week before and a fall of 17%. Of these 49 were in care homes, 26 at home, 12 in a hospice, 260 in hospital and 1 elsewhere.

So far this year in England and Wales 31,211 people have died with COVID mentioned on their death certificate.

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales 2022

The figures on the Coronavirus Dashboard of ONS deaths by date on the death certificate show ONS England deaths rose to 95 on 14th October, but since fallen to 47 per day on 11th November 2022.

In comparison averaged over recent years roughly 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK, so COVID deaths represent no more than 3%.

Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths

NHS England figures

Daily COVID hospital deaths in England  have hovered around 35 during the last 10 days or so (245 per week).

NHS England figures for Worcestershire

The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 8th December 2022.

Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.

Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.

Trend in Worcestershire COVID deaths this year (overview)

Since 1st January 2022 there has been a baseline level of up to 1 COVID death per day in NHS Worcester acute hospitals.

A peak of typically up to 3 deaths per day occurred either side of 1st April, with a more recent upturn of up to 2 deaths per day during July 2022. On some days no deaths were reported.

With a Worcestershire population of roughly 600,000 and assuming one COVID death per day that equates to 0.06% COVID deaths per year. Taking into account that most deaths are of the elderly the risk of Seniors dying of COVID this year will probably be far less than 0.5%.

Worcestershire represents about 1% of the population of England, so all other factors being equal, one might expect the Worcestershire death rate to be one hundredth of the figure for England.

COVID deaths in England are now no more than  about 400 per week, so for Worcestershire assume a pro rata average of fewer than 5 deaths per week.

To get things in perspective, at the present time, Seniors are 20 to 30 times more likely to die of something else, for example cancer, heart attack, stroke, and old age.

For that reason most people are now taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 recent deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

According to the Coronavirus Dashboard sex is an additional risk factor - males are roughly 50% more likely to die than women.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.

Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 8th December 2022

Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.

Bed occupancy and daily admissions have risen slightly, while the number of patients on ventilators fell.

See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website providing another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds rose by 11% in England, 6% in London and 6% in the Midlands.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy due to the Autumn Wave peaked in England about 16th October 2022 and had been falling until 10 days ago since when there has been a slight upturn approximating to a linear increase of 600 beds per week.

The peak in beds is usually one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions, and deaths lag beds by a further week.

COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st October to 7th December 2022

Worcestershire hospital beds

Between 29 November 2022 and 5 December 2022, 21 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows a decrease of 34% compared to the previous 7 days. There were 40 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 7 December 2022 five less than the week before; none on a ventilator.

Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

This link also reports deaths.

Deaths in Malvern Hills

Between 27th November 2022 and 3rd December 2022 there have been no deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.

Forecast for the week ahead

We expect roughly 300 COVID related deaths to be registered in England and Wales in week 48 ending 2nd December, to be reported by the ONS on 13th December.

In the county of Worcestershire, based on 21 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then there should be no more than 2 COVID deaths per week in the second half of December.

NHS COVID bed occupancy in England could rise by about 10% next week.

Longer term outlook (up to the end of January 2023)

According to Independent SAGE there are many new Omicron variants circulating but so far none are seen as a variant of concern which might cause a large wave of COVID.

Factors favouring a possible increase in infections are:

• new variants which may escape the vaccines to some extent;

• fewer precautions being taken;

• vaccines waning in effectiveness especially in the under 50s;

• mixing of unvaccinated children at school;

• transmission from children to teachers and parents;

• the general population spending more time indoors with the windows shut;

• increased mingling due to the World Cup and Christmas activities.

Recently these factors seem to have been balanced by the Autumn Booster programme and natural immunity following previous infections, with the effective Reproduction Ratio of the virus hovering about 1.

COVID hospital bed occupancy has begun creeping up suggesting the start of a Winter Wave.

From now on we expect COVID cases to rise due to increased travel and mingling of friends, families, office colleagues, and shoppers during December, and New Year.

Given that COVID hospital bed occupancy peaked at 10,608 beds in England, had fallen to 4,600 and is now 5,501 it's likely that the ONS death rate will fall to about 300 and then rise to about 360 deaths per week in England and Wales during the next fortnight or so; thereafter the death rate could continue to climb until the end of January.

If it is assumed hospital bed occupancy rises linearly for 5 weeks at the present 600 beds per week, bed occupancy could approach 8,500 by the midlle of January and if the death rate rises proportionally, the death rate towards the end of January 2023 might be about 560 deaths per week in England and Wales.

UCL modelling

UCL modelling has been suggesting that the UK ONS COVID death rate could fall to a minimum of about 350 deaths per week during November, which roughly aligns with our expectation.

However UCL has revised downwards the projected amplitude of any Winter Wave. Our interpretation of the charts suggests the UK ONS death rate could peak at just 850 deaths per week towards the end of January 2023 which is roughly half earlier projections; so the Winter Wave may turn out not as bad as some commentators have feared.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

NHS COVID Beds

If the UCL projection is near the mark, the number of NHS hospital beds occupied by COVID patients in England could start rising from 5,500 towards 12,000 beds this winter adding to the pressure on the NHS.

According to Independent SAGE currently only about 30% of COVID beds are occupied by patients admitted with severe COVID related illness, while the remainder are patients who catch COVID while in hospital.

It would seem now that the pressure on hospitals is increasing it is becoming increasingly difficult to isolate COVID patients.

Additional deaths due to the Winter Wave

Things don't look too bad. Prior to New Year the UK COVID-19 death rate looks set to remain below 700 deaths per week. It has been our opinion that as long as the COVID death rate remained below that number neither the public nor the government would be concerned. This threshold now looks unlikely to be exceeded during the remainder of 2022, but could be slightly topped in January and February 2023.

We doubt many will be concerned by a 'blip'  - possibly of the order of 5,000 additional UK COVID deaths amongst OAPs this winter. Flu and Excess Deaths (above the normal average) will likely turn much greater than any COVID deaths.

To put things in perspective, Worcestershire's share might only be of the order of 50 COVID related deaths.

In a population of 600,000 few will be concerned about that as, barring new variants of concern, the vast majority (we estimate 99.99%) can be expected to survive any winter bout of COVID-19.

Advice for Seniors

We judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 remains quite HIGH in England, but remember there are other respiratory viruses circulating that could make you feel just as sick.

See our riskometer opposite.

Many, perhaps most, healthy people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards are to:

• make sure your COVID and FLU vaccinations are fully up to date

• wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);

• ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering,  or better an FFP2 face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, and when using public transport;

• SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);

• preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;

• avoid crowded indoor settings;

• avoid friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;

• ideally self-isolate to protect others if you feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms; according to the Zoe COVID Study the current top five COVID symptoms are sore throat, runny nose, blocked nose, headache and cough, which may be difficult to distinguish from a common cold; other symptoms may include sneezing, tiredness and muscle aches and pains.

• respect others and give them space;

 Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

4) However careful you are, don't be too surprised if you catch COVID as the Omicron variants are highly infectious and the Wuhan vaccines give little protection against transmission and infection (although they do reduce the severity of symptoms). No information yet on the efficacy of the new bivalent vaccines.

5) You may still have to take a test and wear a facemask when travelling to some overseas countries.

Annex

Commentary

It now feels to us as though the pandemic was over long ago. Attention now turns to keeping warm during the cold weather. Thermal vests, scarves, hats, mitts, socks, the travel rug, hot water bottles - have all come out the drawer.

 One wonders how people are getting on in Ukraine.

Liver drug may combat COVID

Scientists at the University of CA,bridge have discovered that the readily available and cheap liver drug UDCA might help combat COVID-19, but it's early days and further research and trials will be needed before its possible use.

Click for article - Liver disease drug could be repurposed to protect against Covid

China

Pundits are wondering whether the pandemic in China will lead to new variants of concern which might affect the population of the UK.

The Chinese policy of zero COVID through enforced lockdowns, alone, was never going to work and the Chinese people have rebelled against draconian measures.

Click for BBC article - What is China's Covid policy and how have the rules changed?

To date, if you believe Worldometer, China has had only 360,734 cases and 5,235 deaths compared to 24,000,000 cases and 200,000 deaths in the UK.

Taking into account China has twenty times the population of the UK, China has done remarkably well preventing the spread of COVID-19 while the UK has done remarkably badly. But that's only half the story. The UK is now relatively well immunised, whereas vaccination uptake in China has been 'less good'.

So the question is can China keep control of the pandemic by more targeted lockdowns, good ventilation and booster jabs or will hospitals be overwhelmed, and COVID deaths in the older population head from 5,000 towards 4 million during the next 12 months?

We'll just have to wait and see.

Technical report on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer, and others have written a lengthy report on the pandemic published 1st December 2022 which amounts to a history.

This link will take you to the Government website which has links to the individual chapters.

Click for - Technical report on the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

Baroness Hallet's public enquiry is only just starting.

Former Health Secretary Matt Hancock has published his account in Pandemic Diaries, Hardback price about £18.

COVID video updates

Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE  and sometimes pundit Dr John Campbell can be found here:-

Click to watch Zoe Health Study fortnightly update on 1st December 2022

More about the  Intermittent Fasting (IF) study and Poo.

Cases of COVID beginning to creep up.

Cases of colds and flu starting to climb.

Click to watch Independent SAGE weekly update on 9th December 2022

Join Independent SAGE for a discussion on Covid-19 and the implications of health inequalities, with guests Prof Clare Bambra and Prof Arpana Verma; Dr Sheena Cruickshank and Dr Zubaida Haque as hosts; and Prof Christina Pagel on numbers.

Key points:

• Few people are now being vaccinated; take up only 55% in 50 to 64 years age group.

• Prevalence increasing a little.

• Flu up but Rhinovirus and RSV down.

• Strain on NHS stabilising but at a high level.

• COVID has had disproportionate impact on deprived.

List of vaccines

Autumn bivalent boosters

A second bivalent vaccine has been approved 3rd September 2022 as a booster by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness. The updated booster vaccine made by Pfizer/BioNTech, targeting the Wuhan virus and Omicron BA.1 variant, has been approved for use in individuals aged 12 years and above.

An updated version of the COVID-19 vaccine made by Moderna that targets two coronavirus variants (known as a bivalent vaccine) has been approved for adult booster doses by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) after it was found to meet the UK regulator’s standards of safety, quality and effectiveness.

Click for government press release - First bivalent COVID-19 booster vaccine approved by UK medicines regulator

The earlier vaccine story

Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on the use of Pfizer and Moderna with Astrazeneca now held in reserve.

Moderna has been offered for Spring Boosters at the Three Counties Showground.

The order for Valneva has been cancelled, but nevertheless it has now been approved for use by MHRA.

Click for BBC report - Valneva Covid vaccine approved for use in UK

 Nuvaxoid (Novavax) was approved in February.

 The government has signed deals to buy 114 million additional doses of the Pfizer (54M) and Moderna (60M) vaccines to use in 2022 and 2023.

Click for press announcement - Government agrees new deals to future proof vaccine rollout in light of new variant

The press announcement goes on to say that 60M doses of Novavax vaccine are expected to be delivered in 2022 and 7.5M doses of GSK/Sanofi, so there seems no intention to cancel these late arrivals.

Click for Guardian report - Novavax expected to be become fourth Covid vaccine available in UK

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Summary of Links

Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

 https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Guidance

UK government Coronavirus guidance

See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID

COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website

COVID Alert states

Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview

COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021

Tiers

Guidance on tiers: what you need to know

Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas

Statistics

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Modelling

A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website. 

Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths

Reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS

A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.

https://www.medrxiv.org/

MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.

COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19

NICE guidance on managing Long COVID

The bigger picture

Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

World Health Organisation info

https://covid19.who.int/

Window on the USA

Centre for Disease Control (CDC)

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.

American Association of Retired People (AARP)

Worcestershire

A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.

Note 3:  deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.

Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub

COVID Outbreak Control Plan

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Miscellaneous

Spanish Flu

Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia

Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health

Follow Martin McKee on Twitter

Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE

Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter

SAGE membership

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)

Scottish government:

Link to Scottish Government website

Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland

Welsh Government:

Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales

Bibliography

Woolhouse, Professor Mark, The Year the World went Mad, published 2022 by Sandstone Press Ltd, ISBN: 978-1-913207-94-3

Medinger Dez, Altmann Danny, The Long Covid Handbook, Penguin Books, 2022. Kindle version available.

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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own