Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern SeniorsNew cut down version Click to read our observations on politics and world events 19th February 2023
Daily cases and NHS bed occupancy rising but not at an alarming rate. PreambleFor almost three years we have been keeping an eye on the published government figures and monitoring the media to asses the likely level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district and providing links to where further information could be found. For most people, COVID is no longer a critical threat to health so this a shortened version of our weekly update which will continue to be updated weekly, nominally with Sunday's date, for a few weeks more. ContentsSummaryLast week we wondered if another wave of COVID-19 caused by the Kraken variant might roll through the community during February. Cases have indeed been rising but not as fast as expected which is a relief. In the last week, NHS COVID bed occupancy rose a little, while daily deaths stayed 'acceptably' low. The COVID death rate will probably rise a little during February and early March, tracking baked in cases, but should remain 'LOW'. What happens if you get sick with COVIDIf you are feeling poorly there is now a fair chance it won't be COVID-19 but some other winter respiratory illness; 'bugs and lurgi' of the unknown variety have recently left friends feeling very poorly, sometimes for two to three weeks. If you have a temperature/fever it's more likely Flu. If you have a stash of Lateral Flow Tests you could test yourself at home. However be aware that a negative test does not guarantee you don't have COVID. Whatever the virus best stay at home until you feel better, and wear a face mask to protect others if you do have to go out. Nowadays, you might not know it's COVID and brush it off as just another cold. The top six symptoms reported through the Zoe app are, sore throat, runny nose, blocked nose, sneezing, headache, and cough. A few of those who have caught COVID report either getting easily tired or suffering from shortness of breath for some weeks afterwards; if so patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered. A small number of patients report debilitating symptoms for months after so-called recovery especially women. For example see Dez Medinger and Danny Altmann's book The Long COVID Handbook in bibliography. PrecautionsNowadays few people are taking precautions - but that may change were the Kraken variant to start spreading rapidly. Keep that facemask handy during February just in case. Vaccination SitesSection deleted as the Autumn 2022 booster campaign closed on 12th February; if necessary refer to archived blogs (see menu of archived pages).
|
Date report published | Prevalence (England) | Ratio of people with COVID |
6th January 2023 | 2,463,000 | 1:20 |
13th January 2023 | 2,189,300 | 1:25 |
20th January 2023 | 1,461,900 | 1:40 |
27th January 2023 | 906.300 | 1:60 |
3rd February 2023 | 799,200 | 1:70 |
10th February 2023 | 874,700 | 1:65 |
17th February 2023 | 1,054,200 | 1:55 |
Prevalence of COVID-19 in England estimated by ONS
Prevalence was estimated 1:65 in Wales; 1:55 in Scotland; and 1:80 in Northern Ireland.
ONS reports in England the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased across all age groups, except those aged 2 years to school Year 6 and aged 25 to 34 years where the trend was uncertain.
The ZOE Health Study estimates are shown in the following table.
Date of screenshot | Prevalence (UK) | Estimated new infections per day |
4th February 2023 | 895,560 | 81,770 |
9th February 2023 | 996,259 | 90,406 |
16th February 2023 | 1,206,030 | 99,032 |
Prevalence of COVID-19 in UK estimated by the Zoe Health Study
According to the more recent Zoe figures, estimated prevalence has risen by 21%, while daily cases have risen by only 9% in the last week.
The increase in daily cases detected by Zoe correlates with Hospital bed occupancy creeping up.
Note: the Zoe numbers were rebased on 3rd February 2023 to better align with ONS figures.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England. These can't be directly compared as they cover different periods, but together the figures paint a picture of the direction of travel - which is that the Winter Wave death rate peaked around 1st January 2023 and is now approaching a minimum, following which the death rate can be expected to rise a little during March.
The Dashboard chart of COVID (28) deaths, following a positive test, by date of death shows that the 7 day average peaked in England at 167 deaths per day around 30th December before falling to 80 deaths per day on 6th February 2023 (add 1 death per day for Wales).
The Coronavirus Dashboard chart suggests 30th December roughly marked the peak of Winter Wave deaths.
The PHE figures include people who die with COVID but not from it so are higher than the ONS numbers.
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag real time by 10 - 14 days due to the administrative delay in submitting and processing reports, and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Note: the figures include cases where COVID may have been a secondary cause of death.
Click for ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by Local Authority providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 3rd February (week 5 of 2023) is shown in the table below.
Note: the numbers are now derived from Table 1 of the ONS Death Registrations spreadsheet using the in-built filters. This gives the provisional total of deaths registered in any week, which can be distorted by delayed reporting, for example, due to public holidays.
Deaths by Welsh Health Boards are excluded to avoid duplication as these are totals of Local authorities.
Districts of Worcs |
Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Deaths 2022 |
Deaths 2023 |
Week 5 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 142 | 59 | 10 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 98 | 74 | 5 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 109 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 134 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 154 | 85 | 7 | 126,240 | |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 132 | 62 | 5 | 2 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 769 | 378 | 35 | 4 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Worcestershire registered by ONS to 3rd February 2023.
There was 1 death in hospital and 1 elsewhere in Redditch; and 1 death in a care home and 1 in hospital in Wyre Forest.
The general picture continues to be a handful of weekly deaths in Worcestershire.
In England and Wales 498 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 3rd February, 113 less than the week before and a fall of 18%. Of these 86 were in care homes, 32 at home, 9 in a hospice, 367 in hospital and 4 elsewhere.
ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales since the start of 2022 (so week 53 is week 1 of 2023)
Table 2 of the ONS spreadsheet gives England and Wales figures by date of death. This is a more accurate metric but it takes an additional two to three weeks for most of the registrations to flow in; see extract in the table below.
Week of 2023 | Number of deaths reported last week |
Number of deaths reported this week |
1 | 788 | 795 |
2 | 671 | 676 |
3 | 521 | 558 |
4 | 302 | 421 (incomplete) |
5 | 309 (incomplete) | |
ONS weekly deaths in England and Wales - 'by date of death'
The peak of the Winter Wave appears to be settling at about 795 deaths per week.
Of the 498 deaths reported in week 5, only 309 deaths were in that week. The latter figure will rise as reports of deaths in that week continue to flow in. Once the total this week is close to the total the previous week, the number 'by date of death' can be considered fairly stable.
For example, weekly deaths in week 3 are likely to end up about 575, while those in week 4 could end up about 450. As an educated guess, deaths in week 5 might end up about 400.
Averaged over recent years roughly 1,700 people die daily from all causes in the UK, so currently COVID deaths are about 4% of all deaths.
Many of these are said to be people who die a few months earlier than they might otherwise do. COVID is perhaps an extra burden which pushes the very frail over the edge.
Click for ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Deaths
Daily COVID hospital death figures in England show some scatter, but charting them confirms the daily death rate peaked about 1st January 2023 and that the daily death rate has since fallen by roughly 50%.
The table below shows the latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 16th February 2023.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 1,257 | +3 |
Care hospitals | 96 | +2 |
TOTAL | 1,353 | +5 |
Excludes deaths in care homes, deaths at home and deaths in hospices.
Note: the increase is the difference between this week's cumulative total and that last reported.
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths
Look for COVID Total announced deaths file, then select tab Deaths by Trust.
Note: NHS say all deaths are recorded against the date of death rather than the date the deaths were announced. As from 1st July 2022 reporting has moved to publication once per week on a Thursday, rather than every weekday.
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.
Age band | Number of COVID deaths | % of deaths |
0 - 19 | 8 | 0.3 |
20 - 39 | 25 | 0.9 |
40 - 59 | 165 | 5.7 |
60 - 79 | 1,010 | 34.9 |
80+ | 1,692 | 58.4 |
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022
The main point to note is those aged 60+ still account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.
The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.
According to the Coronavirus Dashboard sex is an additional risk factor - males are roughly 50% more likely to die than women; possibly because women have a stronger immune system
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes information about healthcare statistics and NHS bed occupancy.
Hospital COVID cases (England) | Number | Last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 7,209 | +827 |
Patients on ventilation | 137 | +20 |
Patients admitted daily | 800 | +78 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital reported on 16th February 2023
The number of COVID patients in hospital and on ventilators in England has risen a little.
NHS England daily admissions show considerable scatter, but fell to a minimum of about 550 patients per day in the middle of January, since showing a gradual rise towards towards 1,00 patients per day. This may be caused by the Kraken virus, a highly infectious sub-variant of Omicron 'exported' from the USA.
Note: 'Patients admitted daily' is the weekly total divided by 7. This number includes both patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 from the community, and those diagnosed with COVID-19 in hospital.
See charts on the Coronavirus Dashboard and below.
Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can be found on the NHS England website providing another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics
Note: see the latest Daily Admissions and Beds spreadsheets, then look for all COVID beds.
Region | 9th February 2023 | 16th February 2023 | 15th January 2021 |
England | 6,382 | 7,209 | 33,362 |
London | 992 | 1,104 | 7,811 |
Midlands | 1,096 | 1,369 | 5,890 |
Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands
In the last week the number of COVID-19 General and Acute beds rose by 13% in England, 11% in London and 25% in the Midlands.
For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.
The chart below shows how COVID bed occupancy has continued to creep up in the last week.
Note: the peak in beds is usually one week delayed on the peak in daily admissions, and deaths roughly lag beds by a further week.
COVID bed occupancy in England from 1st October to 16th February 2023
Between 7 February 2023 and 13 February 2023, 25 patients went into hospital with coronavirus. This shows no change compared to the previous 7 days. There were 37 patients in hospital with coronavirus on 15 February 2023 four less than the week before; none on a ventilator.
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
This link also reports deaths.
Between 5 February 2023 and 11 February 2023, there have been 2 deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test.
We expect COVID related weekly deaths registered in England and Wales to dip to about 450 in week 6 of 2023 to be reported by the ONS on 21st February as a result of the fall in COVID bed occupancy 3 weeks ago.
In the county of Worcestershire, based on 25 new hospital cases last week and assuming the ratio of all deaths (including those in care homes and at home) to be 1:11 of admissions, then one might expect no more than 2 COVID deaths per week by the end of February 2023.
NHS COVID bed occupancy in England could rise by about 15% next week if the present trend persists.
The weekly COVID ONS death rate (by date of death) in England and Wales peaked at about 795 deaths per week around 1st January 2023 roughly coinciding with a peak in hospital bed occupancy of 9,500.
Hospital bed occupancy is now around 7,209 beds, and rising, which suggests the ONS death rate may begin creeping up towards 600 deaths per week in early March.
The latest UCL projection is that the 7-day average of daily (certified) deaths should fall to about 50 per day (350 per week) and peak at around 100 per day (700 per week) about 10th April 2023.
Based upon present trends, that projection looks credible.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
It seems likely that the death rate will continue to be acceptably low (that is below 100 COVID deaths per day) for the foreseeable future.
We judge the risk of exposure to COVID-19 has risen to MODERATELY HIGH in England, but remember there are many other respiratory viruses circulating that could make you feel just as sick.
See our riskometer opposite.
Many, perhaps most, healthy people continue to take the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.
For the more cautious the simple safeguards to protect against all respiratory infections, are to:
make sure your vaccinations are up to date;
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);
ideally wear either a well fitting FACE covering, or better still an FFP2 (N95) face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, when using public transport, and travelling by air;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2);
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;
avoid crowded indoor settings and friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;
stay at home to protect others if you yourself feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms;
respect others and give them space;
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, for example filling the car up with fuel, either wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel after touching suspect surfaces or wear gloves.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.
Cases have risen a bit this week and consequently it's almost certain the death rate will rise slowly, while remaining 'acceptably low', using our criterion of less than 100 COVID deaths per day in the UK.
Camilla, the Queen Consort, is said to have caught COVID for a second time with the Palace describing it as a 'seasonal illness'.
Links to updates by Professor Tim Spector of the Zoe Health Study, Independent SAGE and pundit Dr John Campbell can sometimes be found here:-
Prof Tim Spector seems to have moved on to monitoring other health issues, food science and writing books. However two weeks ago Tim was back on the air with a short update on COVID.
Else,
Click to watch Independent SAGE update on 17th February 2023
Join Independent SAGE for a session on the Covid Pledge (about employers making workplaces safer for employees) hosted by Prof Stephen Reicher and Janet Newsham, with guests Lara Wong and James Robinson; Dr Stephen Griffin as chair and Dr Kit Yates on numbers.
Section deleted. Refer to archived pages for historical information about vaccines.
Some of this information is now out of date but provides a historical context to the epidemic.
Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022
Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
See also - government sets out next steps for living with COVID
COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England
UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) website
Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview
COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports
Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A video with Dr John Campbell and mathematician Professor Fenton explaining the various ways in which RISK can be specified.
Risks and benefits with Professor Fenton
A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights by ONS
A live roundup of the latest data and trends about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from the ONS and other sources.
MedRxiv is a US preprint server for Health Sciences. A depository for reports which have still to be peer reviewed.
COVID-19 rapid guideline: managing the long-term effects of COVID-19
NICE guidance on managing Long COVID
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
Find maps and charts tracking cases, deaths, and trends of COVID-19 in the United States.
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
A local summary of COVID data can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Note 1: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.
Note 2: the figures for COVID cases are becoming meaningless as testing is run down.
Note 3: deaths are on page 7, and hospital beds on page 9.
Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news
There is a colourful webpage offering advice on learning to live with COVID for those aged under 30 years. 'Rona' is slang for Coronavirus.
Click for The Worcestershire 'Rona' Hub
Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
Views of Prof Christina Pagel, a member of Independent SAGE
Follow Christina Pagel on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
Woolhouse, Professor Mark, The Year the World went Mad, published 2022 by Sandstone Press Ltd, ISBN: 978-1-913207-94-3
Medinger Dez, Altmann Danny, The Long Covid Handbook, Penguin Books, 2022. Kindle version available.
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 19th February 2023