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Occasional Coronavirus (COVID-19) update for Malvern Seniors

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5th February 2024

Preamble

Cases rose during Christmas, but are now declining. Deaths are currently only one sixth of those related to Influenza and Pneumonia so the ONS has reclassified COVID as a minor cause of death. Consequently this may be our last 'occasional' update.

The Coronavirus Dashboard has been retired.

Though a summary of the figures can still be found on The UKHSA data dashboard some of the data seems well behind real time and one wonders whether it receives much attention.

NHS England hospital admissions and beds; and deaths reported by ONS are the principal remaining measures of COVID-19 in the UK as COVID-19 descends into the soup of respiratory viruses.

Summary

What happens if you get sick

Forecast for the week ahead

Menu of archived pages

Summary

There was a rise in cases, caused by mingling over Christmas, leading to a small increase in hospitalizations and deaths during January; cases are however now falling, albeit slowly, and this trend is expected to continue during the spring and summer.

Though the Autumn booster campaign ended on 15th December 2023, a further opportunity for COVID vaccination is expected later in 2024. The government may limit this to those aged over 75 years in order to reduce the cost.

What happens if you get sick

If you are feeling poorly it might not be COVID-19 but quite likely some other respiratory illness. Whatever the virus best stay at home until you feel better, and wear a face mask to protect others if you do have to go out.

You can still test for COVID at home using Lateral Flow Self-Testing Kits. These are no longer free but additional kits can often be purchased from pharmacies.

If concerned, you can purchase an Oximeter to measure your Oxygen levels at home, but note these can give erratic readings if your pulse is weak and hands are cold, so don't panic and take a number of readings if you are worried.

If you catch COVID it is likely to be a 'mild' illness, though you might feel very poorly for two weeks and be left feeling very tired after; the unlucky few might suffer breathing difficulties and become severely ill.

(Definitions: mild = treatable at home; severe = treated in hospital).

Patients are advised to take it easy until fully recovered; some have suggested that overdoing it might even damage your health.

A small percentage of patients have suffered from Long COVID, to a greater or lesser extent, and some of these have been unable to go back to work.

Precautions

Many of those catching COVID often have little idea of where or who they caught COVID from, although groups of people catching COVID at the same time following an event, such as a conference or wedding, have a very good idea!

Few people are now taking precautions; most people no doubt depending on either vaccination or previous infection to protect against serious illness.

UKHSA is no longer publishing data on the benefits of vaccination versus side-effects; one can only trust the vaccines offered by the NHS provide some protection from the latest variants.

Click to view earlier advice

Vaccination Sites

Vaccination ceased to be offered by the NHS on 15th December 2023.

Click to book, cancel or change a COVID-19 vaccination appointment

(You cannot currently book with this link, but opportunities may arise later in 2024)

Number of cases

Widespread monitoring of daily COVID cases has ceased in the UK.

Number of deaths

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned somewhere on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag real time by 10 - 14 days due to the administrative delay in submitting and processing reports, and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

For 2023 figures you can click:-

ONS 2023 data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

For 2024 figures click:-

ONS deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional 2024

then click the Table 3 tab to view a breakdown of deaths.

ONS figures for England and Wales by date reported

In England and Wales 348 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in week 4 of 2024. COVID was the primary cause of death in just two thirds of these cases.

The risk of dying from either Influenza or Pneumonia is currently six times greater.

The chart below suggests that the wave of deaths linked to mingling over Christmas peaked at almost 400 deaths per week in the second half of January 2024.

Chart of ONS deaths

ONS provisional deaths 'by week reported' in England and Wales since the start of 2022 (so week 105 is week 1 of 2024)

Averaged over recent years roughly 11,900 people die weekly from all causes in the UK so COVID related deaths are currently about 3% of all deaths.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

NOT UPDATED

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a snapshot of 2,898 deaths for the period 6th May 2022 to 6th July 2022 when most of these deaths will have been from the Omicron variants.

Age band	Number of COVID deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	8	0.3
20 - 39	25	0.9
40 - 59	165	5.7
60 - 79	1,010	34.9
80+	1,692	58.4

Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band May - July 2022

The main point to note is those aged 60+ account for 93% of deaths despite young people being more likely to catch COVID-19.

The risk profile for Omicron appears to be the same as for Delta. Age is still the greatest risk factor; perhaps reflecting that older people have more health problems.

According to the Coronavirus Dashboard sex is an additional risk factor - males are roughly 50% more likely to die than women; possibly because women have a stronger immune system.

Healthcare numbers

Bed numbers by region in England

Tabulated figures for COVID bed occupancy in England can still be found on the NHS England website providing another indicator of the prevalence of COVID.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity statistics

Note: see the latest Weekly Admissions and Beds spreadsheet, then select All beds COVID tab.

Region	31st December 2023	4th February 2024	15th January 2021
England	4,114	3,319	33,362
London	800	607	7,811
Midlands	776	683	5,890

Comparison of All beds COVID data for England, London and Midlands

The number of patients in the Midlands in hospital with COVID peaked at 835 towards the end of January 2024 and is slowly falling.

For comparison, the number of beds occupied during the peak of the epidemic in January 2021 is shown in red in the right hand column of the table.

Charts can be found on The UKHSA data dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

The numbers are changing slowly so expect little change week to week.

Longer term outlook

There was a lot of COVID about before Christmas, but little mention now. While it can make people feel very poorly, relatively few are being admitted to hospital.

The frequency of COVID is expected to decline further during the spring and summer, returning next winter, like Influenza.

Note: when considering where to mingle, bear in mind that your surgery in hospital could be delayed were you to catch COVID.

Advice for Seniors

Apart from booster programmes, the government has largely washed its hands of COVID considering it to be just one of many respiratory viruses in circulation.

Little or no recent statistical information about the benefits of booster vaccinations and the health risks posed by the latest variants in circulation has been published.

The risk of exposure to COVID remains fairly high but there is no evidence that COVID is causing significant numbers of people in Worcestershire to fall severely ill; so for most, the risk is now probably very LOW.

Consequently our riskometer remains at LOW (see opposite).

Most healthy people are taking the view that COVID is no longer a critical threat to their health.

For the more cautious the simple safeguards to protect against all respiratory infections are to:

make sure vaccinations are up to date - (when offered)
wash HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces (see note 1);
wear either a well fitting FACE covering, or better still an FFP2 (N95) face mask when in crowded settings for example when in shops, theatres, health-care settings, using public transport, and travelling by air;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with (see note 2), remembering when people are at their most infectious many do not show symptoms.
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, either ventilate by keeping windows open as far as is practicable or consider putting a HEPA air purifier in the room;
avoid crowded indoor settings, people shouting and singing, and friends and colleagues with cold and flu like symptoms;
stay at home to protect others if you yourself feel unwell with cold or flu like symptoms;
respect others and give them space;

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors, for example filling the car up with fuel, either wash hands with an alcohol based hand gel after touching suspect surfaces or wear gloves.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

3) If you are 'clinically vulnerable' consult your GP or specialist; you may need to take a test and consider anti viral drugs if testing positive.

Annex

Commentary

The COVID-19 pandemic which emerged in China at the start of 2020 is over.

For many of us, COVID-19 now seems a distant memory, seemingly happening a long time ago. We are the survivors, the lucky ones; but we should not forget that others are still remembering the loved ones they lost.

Some unlucky adults and children remain casualties having become disabled to a greater or lesser extent, possibly unable to work or attend school.

The education of children at school and teenagers at university was severely disrupted.

Business owners lost money, and sometimes their business.

Hospital doctors and nurses, and those supporting them, will no doubt carry vivid and long-lasting memories of the pandemic, the pressures they were under, and patients they lost, especially during that first YEAR THE WORLD WENT MAD.

The somewhat boring UK Inquiry into the pandemic grinds on. Click UK COVID-19 Inquiry for more information.

List of vaccines

Section deleted. Refer to archived pages for historical information about vaccines.

Summary of Links

A lot of this information is now out of date, some links are broken, but working links may provide a historical context to the epidemic.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

Symptoms

About COVID symptoms

Note: the list of symptoms was updated on 1st April 2022

Article about the effects of Wuhan Coronavirus on the human body

Reporting and how to obtain a test

How to get a test

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:

https://covid19.joinzoe.com

Statistics

The UKHSA data dashboard (new source of data on COVID and Flu)

UK government COVID-19: Omicron daily overview

UK government Coronavirus Dashboard (retired)

Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map

ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet, data up to the end of 2023)

For later figures see:-

ONS deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional 2024

Select table 3 for weekly provisional death registrations for selected causes of death by country and region, in England and Wales. Figures are given for both COVID related deaths, and where COVID was the primary cause of death.

Note: ONS say that due to the low numbers of COVID-19 deaths (fewer than influenza or pneumonia), detailed breakdowns by age and place of occurrence are no longer included in the 2024 edition of this dataset.

NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths

NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

NHS England vaccination statistics

Reports on COVID intensive care beds - see intensive care national audit and research centre (ICNARC) website

Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard (retired)

Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports

Information about NHS hospital bed numbers: past, present, future

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

A video with Dr John Campbell and mathematician Professor Fenton explaining the various ways in which RISK can be specified.

Risks and benefits with Professor Fenton