Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern SeniorsCOVID LOCKDOWN in ENGLAND Alert Level dropped to 4 on February 25th DAILY INFECTION RATE STILL HIGH PM says 'STAY AT HOME' Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures to asses the level of risk in the Malvern Hills district, if there is an uptick in cases we will tell you. This page is updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 5,990 | +91 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 2,627 | +90 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 5,707 | +152 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 5,788 | +110 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 6,110 | +142 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 5,157 | +140 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 31,379 | +725 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 6,633 | +134 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 33,931 | +735 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 28th February 2021
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country. This shows how the rate of infection has fallen across the UK since the start of the lockdown.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Recent weekly cases to 23rd February are: North Malvern 10; Malvern Link 26; Pickersleigh 7; Barnards Green 5; Malvern Wells and Priory 3; Callow End and Hanley 3; Upton and Welland 6. The picture changes daily.
Alfrick and Leigh, North Malvern and particularly Malvern Link are COVID hotspots.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England; these show the third wave daily death rate has passed its peak and begun to fall.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 2,269 in the last week to 122,849 while the daily average has fallen from 488 to 324; see chart below which shows the actual daily death rate in red, and our old forecast to the 7th March in blue.
Daily UK death rate from 27th Dec to 28th February 2021 and forecast
The blue curve shows the expected direction of travel; actual cases are a tad higher.
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include NI and Scotland, so are lower than the figures published by PHE.
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse where deaths are occurring. The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 12th February 2021 (week 6 of 2021) is shown below.
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 79 | +7 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 67 | +12 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 66 | +9 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 93 | +7 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 94 | +8 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 68 | +11 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 467 | +54 | 592,130 |
Cumulative COVID deaths registered by ONS to 12th February 2021
In the week ending 12th February, there were 54 COVID related deaths in Worcestershire, of which 15 were in care homes, 3 at home, 1 in a hospice and 34 in hospital; a fall of 35 on last week.
In total in England and Wales 5,896 COVID related deaths were reported by the ONS in the week to 12th February, a fall of 1,722 (22%) on the week before.
The highest number of hospital deaths (>29) by Lower Tier Local Authority were:
Leicester 30, Cheshire West 34, Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole 48, Dorset 40, Buckinghamshire 33, Tendring 35, Manchester 33, Liverpool 36, Sefton 36, Wirral 40, Sheffield 33, Sunderland, 37, Birmingham 113, Dudley 30, Sandwell 49, Walsall 42, Leeds 36, Croydon 32, Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board 46, Cardiff and Vale University Health Board 30.
Once again Birmingham had by far the highest death rate.
The cumulative total of COVID related deaths in England and Wales recorded by the ONS for all weeks of the epidemic rose to 131,041.
Year | Cumulative COVID related deaths in England and Wales |
2020 | 85,686 |
2021 | 45,355 |
TOTAL | 131,041 |
COVID death toll in England and Wales to 12th February 2021 (source: ONS)
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
More recently in the seven days ending 28th February NHS England reported the cumulative total of deaths in Worcestershire hospitals rose by 24 to 825.
Click for NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital cases (UK) | Number | Weekly change |
Patients currently in hospital | 14,808 | -3,654 |
Patients on ventilation | 1,971 | -498 |
Patients admitted daily | 1,112 | -285 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 28th February 2021
These headline figures show the number of COVID patients in hospital has continued to fall and is now roughly 35% of the peak.
The number of patients on ventilators is gradually falling.
Daily admissions are down only slightly this week. The steady state number of COVID patients in hospital seems to be roughly ten time the number of patients admitted daily, suggesting a fall to 11,000 patients is on the way.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website, but it is quicker to look at a graph at the bottom of the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard homepage which shows at a glance the number of beds occupied by COVID patients in Worcestershire Acute hospitals.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
Click for Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University speaking on BBC TV last year said that, using his rule of thumb, hospital admissions were likely to be about 10% of reported new cases, one week after symptoms; and deaths were likely to be about 2% of new cases, 2 to 3 weeks after that - which would point to about 175 hospital deaths per day by the middle of March.
Once a large proportion of the population has been vaccinated this rule of thumb will no longer apply, and COVID deaths should fall sharply.
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 7th March) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by about 54,000 towards 4,231,000.
In Worcestershire up to 700 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 90 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths could increase by about 1,850 nationally towards 124,700 during the 7 days ending 7th March 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 2.4% death rate, the 725 new cases this week could translate to about 17 Worcestershire deaths per week by mid March, but if cases are mostly confined to younger age groups it could be less.
It is once again impossible to provide a long term forecast this week due to uncertainty about how much the relaxation of government restrictions will put up the Effective Reproduction Rate of the virus and the extent to which vaccines will reduce the transmission of COVID-19. The best we can do is speculate about what might happen.
Though the drop in daily cases faltered last week, the curve is once again approaching an exponential fall so that a further decline to 7,000 new cases per day is possible by the time children return to school on 8th March.
Before vaccination, 7,000 new cases per day would have led to 700 daily admissions to hospital, occupation of 7,000 hospital beds, later followed by 140 deaths per day. Vaccination should reduce these numbers further, but by how much we are not sure.
Easing of the lockdown is likely to push the Reproduction Rate above one causing the daily infection rate to rise in some parts of the country, as illustrated in the chart below, leading to a fourth wave of the epidemic. Let's hope rapid rollout of the vaccine, frequent testing of school children and their families, hand washing, masks and physical distancing will keep COVID under control without the need for a fourth lockdown.
By mid April only half the population will have been vaccinated. Now we have seen no official estimate of the basic reproduction rate of the Kent virus, but were it to be as high as 5, vaccination alone would only reduce the effective reproduction rate to 2.5 and so the wearing of masks and physical distancing beyond April could still be needed, possibly up to and beyond the ending of the third lockdown in June.
Projected new daily cases to 20th April 2021
The chart above shows the falling number of daily new cases in red and an exponential curve, which was our forecast 2 weeks ago, in blue. The green projection is an illustration of what might happen next. We have assumed cases fall to about 7,000 per day when schools go back on 8th March and then rise exponentially but at a rate half that of the third wave. An adjustment has been made for vaccination, including take up of the vaccine (85% allowing for those under 18), and effectiveness (80%). Based on these assumptions you will see towards the end of April new daily cases could either fall to 1,000 a day in the very best case, or rise towards 20,000.
If the vaccine breaks the link with hospitalizations and deaths then such figures may be of no great concern. We'll just have to wait and see what happens.
The death toll will continue to mount until the vaccination programme eventually draws the UK COVID-19 epidemic to a close. We now expect the UK COVID death toll to reach 131,000 by the end of April 2021; see commentary.
Exactly what happens will depend on how carefully the government relaxes the restrictions, the effectiveness of test and trace, any change in the lethality of new variants of the virus, and most importantly the speed of the vaccine rollout.
The
daily number of new cases of Coronavirus is still unacceptably high,
and we judge the risk remains MODERATE to
HIGH for Seniors living in the
Malvern Hills district who have not been vaccinated; see our annex and riskometer opposite.
Recent cases have been particularly high in North Malvern and Malvern Link.
The risk could be approaching LOW for most Seniors who have been jabbed more than 3 weeks ago.
If you have not been vaccinated and catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so take care to protect yourself and those you love. 90% of COVID deaths are in those aged over 60 years according to NHS England statistics.
Click for our risk of death table
So if you are offered a jab you should grasp the opportunity with both hands.
The simple safeguards to remember are still to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE mask when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist;
SPACE at least 2 metres apart from others see note 2;
keep TIME near others as short as possible, see note 3;
self-isolate and book a test if you have COVID-19 symptoms (new continuous cough, fever or loss of, or change in, sense of smell or taste).
Hence the mantra:-
HANDS, FACE, SPACE, TIME - GET A TEST if you feel unwell.
A
doctor in Bournemouth speaking on the evening news suggested
that if you were sick with COVID at home it would be a good idea to have a
little device known as a Pulse Oximeter handy (see photo on right). This
measures the oxygen saturation in the blood and pulse rate by clipping the
device on a finger and pressing a button; the reading should normally be at
least 97%.
If the reading falls to about 93% you should call your doctor for advice, and if the reading is consistently below 92% you should consider calling an ambulance or visiting A&E.
Pulse Oximeters can be purchased from Amazon for £18 to £25; alternatively your doctor's surgery might loan you one if you are unwell and have tested COVID positive.
Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 at home and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.
Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) During the National Lockdown you should not mix with other households.
Minimise exposure time if you unavoidably find yourself mixing in a confined setting - an invisible mist of virus can build up in the air if the space is shared with an infectious person; imagine people exhaling cigarette smoke. Unless you wear a well fitting FFP3 hospital grade face mask you can breath this in; a face covering will offer little protection. The likelihood and extent you get sick will depend on the density of the airborne virus, which can be reduced by ventilation, and the duration of your exposure.
Discussion in the media has been focused on the route out of lockdown, vaccination certificates and expectations for summer holidays.
The main news this week has been the Prime Minister's announcement of the much awaited Road Map out of the third lockdown on Monday evening.
Click to read PM's statement on cautiously easing lockdown restrictions
This was followed by a briefing by the Education Secretary on Wednesday about children going back to school. On Thursday the COVID Alert level was reduced to 4 meaning that hospitals were no longer at risk of being overwhelmed.
On Friday there was a press briefing by the Health Secretary and Professor Van Tam expressing concern that in some areas cases of COVID had stopped falling and were rising in others.
The Road Map is rather complicated involving 4 tests, 4 steps, and 4 reviews. Here is our summary:-
These are essentially the assumptions made by government:
The four steps are described in a summary statement.
Click for summary of road map out of lockdown
Earliest start date | Step number | Comment |
8th March | Step 1A | Children return to school. |
29th March | Step 1B | Easter school holiday. Stay at home rule ends. People can meet outside in groups of up to 6 subject to physical distancing but not indoors. Holidays overseas prohibited. |
12th April | Step 2 | Opening of non-essential retail, hairdressers, libraries, and zoos. Hospitality venues can offer outdoor table service. |
17th May | Step 3 | Two households can meet indoors, or other groups subject to the rule of 6. Hotels can open. |
21st June | Step 4 | Removal of all legal limits on social contact; reopen all premises including nightclubs. |
You will have to read the guidance and decide what it means for you.
The road map suggests despite being vaccinated Seniors can't stay overnight with grandchildren for another 2 to 3 months.
The PM said there would be four associated reviews to answer these questions:-
The target now is to vaccinate those aged 50 - 69 by the 15th April, but from mid March the priority will be to give second jabs to those aged 70+ years. Obviously the government think there will be enough vaccine to do both.
The target for vaccination of those aged 18-49 has been brought forward to the end of July 2021 and this will be facilitated by the opening of the mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground
Here is a list of the vaccines ordered by the UK.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40 | Approved, delivery has started, made in Belgium |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved, delivery has started after some delay, made in UK |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved, should be available in the 'spring', supplied from either Switzerland or Spain. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 30 | A jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; phase III trials complete. Approved for use in the USA on 28th Feb. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax will be made in Stockton-on-Tees; phase III trials complete, could be available later this year. |
GSK Sanoft | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible availability late 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The table below shows all COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 27th February.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Weekly increase |
Acute hospitals | 764 | +20 |
Care hospitals | 61 | +4 |
TOTAL | 825 | +24 |
In the last week 24 additional deaths have been recorded compared to 20 the week before.
This week, the average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England fell from 128 to 108. In comparison the figure for Worcestershire is 136 and that in the Malvern Hills 132.
The rise in the Malvern figure reflects clusters of recent cases in Alfrick, North Malvern and Malvern Link - it's not over yet. Seniors awaiting vaccination should continue to be careful.
The probability of catching Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills is moderate, but combined with the significant risk of death makes us view the overall risk to Seniors, prior to inoculation, as MODERATE to HIGH.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for healthy teenagers is exceedingly small so for them the risk is LOW, whereas the middle aged can suffer from Long COVID so for them the risk might be assessed MODERATE.
The average UK COVID daily death rate peaked at 1,200 deaths per day about 25th January and has begun to fall principally due to physical distancing. In coming weeks the vaccination programme should lead to a slightly faster fall in the death rate with deaths possibly tailing off to 100 deaths per day or less by the end of March.
The rolling 7 day average death rate was 324 deaths per day at the end of February. Assuming the death rate falls linearly to 100 deaths per day by the end of March, then there could be 6,500 further deaths in March, and if the death rate fell to 40 deaths per day by the end of April, another 2,100 deaths in April.
Adding these 'back of the envelope' numbers suggests the UK COVID-19 death toll could reach 131,449 by the end of April.
Date | Forecast UK COVID-19 death toll (PHE basis) |
February 28th | 122,849 |
March 31st | +6,500 |
April 30th | +2,100 |
Total | 131,449 |
Forecast UK COVID-19 epidemic death toll by the end April 2021
Another projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website:
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
The latest projection is for 148,000 deaths by the end of April which probably won't be far off the figure reported by the ONS.
At the start of the epidemic in March the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, suggested a death toll of 20,000 would be a good outcome; on the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Sir Patrick Valance spoke off the top of his head there had been few deaths and he clearly did not want to 'scare the horses'. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of 131,000 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, and temporary collapse of the NHS. Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done very poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
Ultimately there can be no winners or losers, but there must eventually be a thorough inquiry to learn lessons for the future.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 1st March 2021