Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors23rd May 2021 COVID LOCKDOWN in ENGLAND EXIT STEP 3, DAILY CASES RISING Risk remains low within the Malvern Hills district Note: due to the Bank Holiday, our next update will probably be on 6th June Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is currently updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Last 7 days | Population |
Bromsgrove | 6,266 | +6 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 2,822 | +11 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 6,246 | +14 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 6,185 | +43 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 6,459 | +8 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 5,589 | +7 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 33,567 | +89 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 7,146 | +40 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 37,255 | +166 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 23rd May 2021
Cases in Malvern have crept up, while the greatest increase is in the city of Worcester.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
New cases in Malvern are currently too low to register on the map, except for Malvern Wells and Priory where 4 cases were reported in week ending 18th May.
In comparison there has been a huge surge in Bolton where 1,248 cases have been recorded in the last week.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 42 in the last week to 127,721 while the daily average has fallen to 6 deaths per day. The chart below shows how the death rate has fallen in steps during the last 6 weeks.
COVID-19 death rate 1st April to 23rd May 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 7th May 2021 (week 18 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 18 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 101 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 83 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 85 | +1 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 114 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 118 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 104 | 0 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 604 | 0 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 7th May 2021
Only one COVID-19 death was reported, at home in Redditch.
In England and Wales 129 COVID-19 related deaths were reported by the ONS in the week to 7th May; 76 lower than the week before, a fall of 37%. Of these 14 were in a care home, 23 at home, 1 in a hospice, 87 in hospital and 4 elsewhere.
The provisional COVID-19 death toll for all weeks of the epidemic is shown in the following table for England and Wales.
Year | Provisional COVID-19 UK death toll in England and Wales |
2020 | 80,741 |
2021 | 57,080 |
TOTAL | 137,821 |
COVID-19 death toll in England and Wales to 7th May 2021 (source: ONS)
Note: summation of rows 9-344 of ONS Registrations-Pivot Table spreadsheet tab.
The UK death toll is about 10% higher as deaths for Scotland and Northern Ireland have to be added.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The death toll based on death certificates is about 20% higher than deaths within 28 days reported by PHE.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 21st May.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Weekly increase |
Acute hospitals | 806 | 0 |
Care hospitals | 63 | 0 |
TOTAL | 869 | 0 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths
There have been no COVID deaths in Worcestershire for two weeks..
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital cases (UK) | Number | Weekly change |
Patients currently in hospital | 908 | -83 |
Patients on ventilation | 123 | -6 |
Patients admitted daily | 122 | +19 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 23rd May 2021
The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital, and the number on ventilators continues to fall slowly, but there are signs of a small rise in the number of patients admitted daily.
In the past, the steady state number of COVID patients in hospital has been roughly ten time the number of patients admitted daily, suggesting the number of COVID patients in hospital could begin rising due to STAGE 3 of unlocking - it will probably be a week or two before we know for sure whether this is a trend or a blip.
Last year roughly 10% of new cases were admitted to hospital and of those at least 1 in 5 died.
The latest figures suggest about 5% of new cases are being admitted to hospital. If it is assumed that due to vaccination just 1 in 15 of these now dies then 122 hospital admissions per day may suggest up to 8 UK deaths per day by mid June.
Note: these ratios are very rough and ready and should change as more of the population is vaccinated.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
You can also obtain a snapshot of bed occupancy from the Coronavirus Dashboard daily update page, by entering your postcode at the bottom of the page, which will show data for Worcestershire; then find and click All Health Data to see bed occupancy. This information has returned to the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Recently there have been 8 COVID patients in Worcestershire Acute Hospitals of which none were on ventilators; the same as last week.
The main point to note is that the number of Worcestershire COVID-19 beds occupied is very much lower than the peak of about 300 beds.
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 30th May) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by up to 19,000 towards 4,481,000
In Worcestershire there could be 100 new cases of COVID-19, and possibly up to 15 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 40 nationally towards 127,765 during the 7 days ending 30th May 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 89 new cases this week could translate to one COVID death per month in June.
Commentators suggest that the UK could be approaching herd immunity due to both the success of the vaccination programme, and immunity of those who have already been infected by COVID-19.
The huge flare up of cases in Bolton casts some doubt on this and suggests a higher level of vaccination may be needed to counter Indian Coronavirus. Matt Hancock says most of those in hospital in Bolton had been offered the vaccine and had not taken it.
Reports from Oxford suggest the current vaccines are preventing serious illness from 'new variants' while scientists warn against letting new cases 'rip' as the virus would weed out the frail and unvaccinated.
The message to everyone is therefore to continue to be reasonably cautious and get vaccinated.
It is anticipated infections could continue at between 2,000 and 3,000 cases per day with occasional localised flare ups such as in Bolton and Blackburn. As most of those aged under 40 years have still to be vaccinated reasonable caution should be exercised until the end of June.
This week the threat from 'new variants of concern' seems to be receding as the present vaccines are proving effective and scientists are working on booster jabs.
The
daily number of new cases of Coronavirus has fallen a long way from
the peak so we judge the risk to be LOW for most Seniors
in the Malvern Hills district who have had 2 jabs;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
But remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so get your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. 90% of COVID deaths have been in those aged over 60 years according to NHS England statistics.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
It's possible, despite a second jab, for some Seniors to become ill with COVID, though for most this is likely to be a mild illness.
The simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE mask when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people outside your bubble see note 2;
preferably meet friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR, else keep the windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
self-isolate and book a test if you have COVID-19 symptoms (new continuous cough, fever or loss of, or change in, sense of smell or taste).
keep away from areas where the infection rate is known to be high.
Hence the PMs mantra:-
HANDS, FACE, SPACE, FRESH AIR
We are now gradually moving from a regime where the government tells us what to do to one where it is up to us to take personal responsibility for assessing the risk to ourselves and our loved ones.
Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 at home and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.
Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) If possible keep windows and doors open to improve ventilation when meeting others.
4) If you have been vaccinated and are infected by COVID-19 you may not get the classic symptoms; you could for example have no symptoms or feel like you have a common cold. If in doubt get a test.
Japanese advice has been to avoid the three Cs, see poster below:
Crowded spaces with poor ventilation
Crowded places with many people nearby
Close-contact settings such as close range conversations
COVID advice in Japan
Most of us who have received two jabs probably now feel safe mingling with friends and family.
On Monday Matt Hancock briefed parliament on the COVID-19 vaccination programme and the surge in cases in Bolton, Blackburn and Bedford.
On Wednesday Matt Hancock gave a press briefing on surge testing for the Indian variant of COVID-19.
New tools allow the spread of the virus to be forecast from travel patterns, and tests of waste water.
Surge testing is now being deployed in Bedford, Burnley, Leicester, Kirklees, North Tyneside, Hounslow in London, Glasgow and Moray in Scotland. The Indian variant is spreading more quickly than the Kent variant, but the current vaccines seem effective against both.
Click for COVID press statement by Matt Hancock
The EU is considering a digital COVID certificate to enable people to travel freely within the European Economic Area. The criteria could be to include those who have been vaccinated, those who have recovered from COVID, and those who have tested negative.
Possibly EU doors could also be opened to anyone from 'safe' countries on the 'white' list where the infection rate is less than 75 cases in 100,000 measured over two weeks. Though the infection rate in the UK is only 21 cases in 100,000 per week, Germany is reluctant to admit people from the UK because of the Indian variant.
On Friday Spain announced, from next Monday, visitors from the UK would be welcome irrespective of vaccination status.
Click for BBC report - Spain to lift restrictions for UK and Japanese travellers
The Transport Secretary confirmed that travel can begin to reopen allowing people to go on overseas holidays to countries on the 'green list' accepting visitors, such as Portugal. However don't get too excited as few popular resorts are currently on the 'green list'. Israel is a 'war-zone' so few will want to go there, while Australia, New Zealand and Singapore require travellers to quarantine, so the latter are not an attractive option for short stays.
The government's guidance on overseas travel remains somewhat confusing.
Travel to countries on the amber and red lists is not illegal but is discouraged by the PM and government website.
Travellers should take account of Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office advice and check, in the light of this, whether their travel insurance will cover the intended journey.
If you are planning to go on an overseas holiday, you should check things out very carefully, and ideally make bookings that can be changed.
The UK 'Traffic Light' system specifies the quarantine measures those returning to the UK from abroad must undergo.
Click for guidance on travel during the COVID pandemic
Click for Report of the Global Travel Taskforce - The Safe Return of International Travel
In essence the plan is that you will need to get a COVID test before return to the UK and following arrival from abroad. If you return from a 'green' list country you are free to circulate if the tests are clear. If you return from an 'amber' list country you must quarantine for ten days and take two COVID tests. If you arrive from a red list country you must quarantine for ten days in an approved government hotel.
Click for BBC report on countries likely to be on green list
The cost of getting tests is likely to be a significant burden on holiday-makers, who may also have to provide evidence of vaccination for example by either providing a vaccination certificate or by means of an app on their smartphone.
Essential travel for business and family emergencies remains possible subject to obtaining permissions and quarantine regulations at both ends.
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - you will see there is plenty of vaccine in the pipeline for delivery later in the year.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 30 | A jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; phase III trials complete. Approved for use in the USA and EU; possibly available in UK from May. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanoft | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible availability late 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
This week, the average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England fell from 23 to 21. In comparison the figure for Worcestershire has risen from 10 to 15, and the Malvern Hills to 14, while Bolton has shot up to 434.
The probability of catching Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills district remains low, and as most Seniors have been vaccinated with 2 jabs we judge the risk LOW.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is small so for them the risk is also LOW. The middle aged can suffer from debilitating Long COVID so for those that have not been vaccinated and may be visiting areas where rates are spiking, such as Bolton, the risk might be judged MODERATE to HIGH.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearer the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 127,700 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 1 to 2 years before the 'dust' finally settles. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 24th May 2021