Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors13th June 2021 COVID LOCKDOWN in ENGLAND EXIT STEP 3, DAILY CASES RISING IN HOTSPOTS Risk remains low within the Malvern Hills district Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 6,353 | +58 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 2,848 | +8 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 6,340 | +28 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 6,269 | +22 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 6,503 | +19 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 5,638 | +17 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 33,951 | +152 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 7,262 | +56 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 38,360 | +449 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 13th June 2021
The weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country.
More of the map is turning from yellow to pale green suggesting infection rates have been creeping up across the country. There are hotspots particularly around Blackurn, Bolton and Manchester in the NW; also Bedford, South Ayrshire, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
New cases in Malvern are currently too low to register on the map.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 64 in the last week to 127,904 while the daily average has flat-lined at about 9 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st April to 13th June 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 28th May 2021 (week 21 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 21 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 101 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 83 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 85 | 0 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 116 | 1 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 119 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 105 | 1 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 609 | 2 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 28th May 2021
In the last week reported there has been one COVID death in hospital in Worcester, and a further death in a care home in Wyre Forest.
In England and Wales 95 COVID-19 related deaths were reported by the ONS in the week to 28th May; 12 less than last week. Of these 10 were in a care home, 22 at home, 1 in a hospice, 60 in hospital and 2 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table; the ONS spreadsheet has been revised due to boundary changes.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 12th June.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 808 | 0 |
Care hospitals | 63 | 0 |
TOTAL | 871 | 0 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 1,089 | +157 |
Patients on ventilation | 154 | +20 |
Patients admitted daily | 187 | +33 (last week amended to 154) |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 13th June 2021
Daily hospital admissions expressed as a 7 day average fell to 100 about 20th May but has crept up to 157 and can be expected to increase further as a result of new cases. Previously hospitals only admitted very sick COVID patients and it could be less sick patients are now being admitted.
In the past, the steady state number of COVID patients in hospital has been roughly ten time the number of patients admitted daily. This ratio should fall as fewer patients require intensive care and are discharged earlier due to vaccination.
Last year roughly 10% of new cases were admitted to hospital and of those at least 1 in 5 died.
The latest figures suggest about 5% of new cases are being admitted to hospital. If it is assumed that due to vaccination just 1 in 15 of these now dies then 157 hospital admissions per day may suggest up to 10 UK deaths per day in the second half of June.
Note: these ratios are very rough and ready and should change as more of the population is vaccinated.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
You can also obtain a snapshot of bed occupancy from the Coronavirus Dashboard daily update page, by entering your postcode at the bottom of the page, which will show data for Worcestershire; then find and click All Health Data to see bed occupancy. This information has returned to the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Recently there have been 6 COVID patients in Worcestershire Acute Hospitals of which one was on a ventilator.
The main point to note is that the number of Worcestershire COVID-19 beds occupied is very much lower than the peak of about 300 beds.
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 20th June) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by up to 62,000 towards 4,628,000 followed by a consequential increase in daily hospital admissions.
In Worcestershire 160 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly up to 12 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 70 nationally towards 127,974 during the 7 days ending 20th June 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 152 new cases this week should translate to no more than two COVID deaths per month in June/July.
Commentators have suggested that the UK could be approaching herd immunity due to both the success of the vaccination programme, and immunity of those who have already been infected by COVID-19.
The huge flare up of cases in the north casts some doubt on this and suggests a higher level of vaccination will be needed to counter Indian Coronavirus. Matt Hancock says most of those in hospital in Bolton had been offered the vaccine but had not taken it.
The chart below based on a logistic function illustrates how daily cases could further increase if surge testing can dampen the fourth wave and the UK remains in exit STEP 3.
Actual and projected UK daily cases to 31st July 2021
Remember that currently only 61% of the UK population (of all ages) has received a first COVID vaccination and only 45% have had two jabs, so there is more work to do.
Scientists warn against letting new cases 'rip' as the virus would quickly 'weed out' the frail and unvaccinated.
The
daily number of new cases of Coronavirus has fallen a long way from
the peak of the third wave so we judge the risk to be LOW for most Seniors
in the Malvern Hills district who have had 2 jabs;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
But remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so get your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. 90% of COVID deaths have been in those aged over 60 years according to NHS England statistics.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
It's possible, despite a second jab, for some Seniors to become ill with COVID, though for most this is likely to be a mild illness.
The simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE mask when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people outside your bubble see note 2;
preferably meet friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR, else keep the windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
self-isolate and book a test if you have COVID-19 symptoms (new continuous cough, fever or loss of, or change in, sense of smell or taste).
keep away from areas where the infection rate is known to be high.
Hence the PMs mantra:-
HANDS, FACE, SPACE, FRESH AIR
We are moving from a regime where the government tells us what to do to one where it is up to us to take personal responsibility for assessing the risk to ourselves and our loved ones.
Remember, if you have symptoms of COVID-19 at home and can't count from one to ten out loud due to shortness of breath, you should immediately call your GP, 111 or 999 for advice.
Click for UK government Coronavirus guidance on what you can and cannot do
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) If possible keep windows and doors open to improve ventilation when meeting others.
4) If you have been vaccinated and are infected by COVID-19 you may not get the classic symptoms; you could for example have no symptoms or feel like you have a common cold. If in doubt get a test.
Japanese advice has been to avoid the three Cs, see poster below:
Crowded spaces with poor ventilation
Crowded places with many people nearby
Close-contact settings such as close range conversations
COVID advice in Japan
Most of us who have received two jabs probably now feel safe mingling with friends and family!
The main speculation in the media this week has been whether or not the PM will delay exit from lockdown on 21st June. The consensus seems to be a delay of 2 to 4 weeks can be expected.
On Tuesday it was announced the vaccine would be offered to those aged 25+ and surge testing would be introduced in Greater Manchester, Blackburn, Lancashire and surrounds.
On Thursday Matt Hancock appeared before the Science and Technology Committee and Health and Social Care Committee and had the opportunity to contest Dominic Cumming's accusations. Dominic Cummings had agreed to provide documentary evidence to back up his verbal claims but none had been provided to the committees so far.
Click to watch committee proceedings on 10th June
On Friday the BBC said PHE had assessed the Indian virus 64% more transmissible than the Kent virus and Professor Tim Spector in this week's Zoe update said the Reproduction Rate of the Indian or Delta virus was thought to be about 6. That leads us to think that for herd immunity we should ideally be looking for at least 80% of the population to be double jabbed, whereas only 45% are double jabbed to date.
Tim Spector said the latest COVID symptoms amongst young people were headache, sore throat, runny nose and fever which could be confused with a bad cold; he exhorted everyone who felt unwell to take a Lateral Flow Test.
Click to watch Zoe COVID update on YouTube
The situation is confused and could remain so until the world is more fully vaccinated.
The UK government would rather people did not travel overseas this year, but the regulations do not prevent it. The main question is will the country you want to visit let you in.
Returning travellers to the UK must quarantine according to the UK Traffic Light system (see below).
Travellers should take account of Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office advice and check, in the light of this, whether their travel insurance will cover the intended journey.
If you are planning to go on an overseas holiday, you should check things out extremely carefully, ideally make bookings that can be changed, and be prepared to quarantine if circumstances change.
The UK 'Traffic Light' system specifies the quarantine measures those entering the UK from abroad must undergo.
Click for guidance on travel during the COVID pandemic
Click for Report of the Global Travel Taskforce - The Safe Return of International Travel
In essence the plan is that you will need to pass a COVID test before being allowed to fly back to the UK and take another test upon arrival. If you return from a 'green' list country you are free to circulate if both tests are clear. If you return from an 'amber' list country you must quarantine for ten days and take two COVID tests following arrival. If you arrive from a red list country you must quarantine for ten days in an approved government hotel and take two tests booked before departure.
Click for Red, Amber and Green list rules for entering England
The cost of getting tests is likely to be a significant burden on travellers, who may also have to provide evidence of vaccination for example by either providing a vaccination certificate or by means of the NHS app on their smartphone.
Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app
Click for NHS info on Coronavirus vaccination status for travelling abroad
The situation is fast moving. France, Spain and Portugal now appear keen to attract vaccinated British tourists, and is it really necessary for vaccinated individuals to have to quarantine on return to the UK?
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - you will see there is plenty of vaccine in the pipeline for delivery later in the year.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanoft | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible availability late 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen from 37 to 64 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is 21 and the Malvern Hills 5.
High infection areas include Blackburn 648, Ribble Valley 430, Rossendale 373, Bolton 311, and Salford 310.
Birmingham, Bedford, Leicester and Ledbury are also areas best avoided.
The probability of catching Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills district remains low, and as most Seniors have been vaccinated with 2 jabs we judge the risk LOW.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is small so for them the risk is also LOW. The middle aged can suffer from debilitating Long COVID so for those that have not been vaccinated and may be visiting areas where rates are spiking the risk might be judged MODERATE to HIGH.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearer the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 128,000 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 1 to 2 years before the 'dust' finally settles. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 13th June 2021