Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors20th June 2021 COVID LOCKDOWN in ENGLAND EXIT MOVED TO 19TH JULY Cases rising in the Malvern Hills district Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 6,417 | +64 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 2,876 | +28 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 6,361 | +21 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 6,307 | +38 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 6,540 | +37 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 5,669 | +31 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 34,170 | +219 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 7,341 | +79 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 38,786 | +426 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 20th June 2021
The weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country. The map shows that, in addition to hot spots, infection rates have been creeping up across the UK.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
While new cases in Malvern are currently too low to register on the map, except Pickersleigh, it just seems a matter of time before 'ripples of the fourth wave' are imported from outside Worcestershire. However this should be nothing to worry about as vaccination levels are high, apart from children and teenagers.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 72 in the last week to 127,976 while the daily average has increased only slightly from 9 to 10 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st April to 20th June 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 4th June 2021 (week 22 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 22 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 101 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 83 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 85 | 0 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 116 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 119 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 106 | 1 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 610 | 1 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 4th June 2021
In the last week reported there has been only one COVID-19 death, in hospital in Wyre Forest.
In England and Wales 98 COVID-19 related deaths were reported by the ONS in the week to 4th June; 3 more than last week, suggesting the COVID death rate may be beginning to turn up slightly. Of these 9 were in a care home, 19 at home, 1 in a hospice, 66 in hospital and 3 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 19th June.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 808 | 0 |
Care hospitals | 63 | 0 |
TOTAL | 871 | 0 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 1,316 | +227 |
Patients on ventilation | 210 | +56 |
Patients admitted daily | 226 | +39 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 20th June 2021
The daily number of hospital admissions expressed as a 7 day average fell to 100 about 20th May but has crept up to 206 and can be expected to increase further in proportion to the rise in daily cases. If roughly 2,000 case per day last month led to 100 daily admissions, then the recent 10,000 cases per day could see daily admissions rising towards 500.
In the past, the steady state number of COVID patients in hospital has been roughly ten time the number of patients admitted daily, so we could see the number of COVID patients in hospital rising towards 5,000 and then falling as the fourth wave is suppressed.
If it is assumed that due to vaccination just 1 in 15 of those admitted to hospital now dies then 206 hospital admissions per day suggests the COVID daily death rate could rise to 14 in July and then fall as the fourth wave is suppressed.
Note: these ratios are very rough and ready and should change as more of the population is vaccinated.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershirfe Coronavirus Dashboard.
Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Recently there have been 6 COVID patients in Worcestershire Acute Hospitals of which one was on a ventilator.
The main point to note is that the number of Worcestershire COVID-19 beds occupied is very much lower than the peak of about 300 beds.
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 27th June) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by up to 70,000 towards 4,700,000.
In Worcestershire about 250 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly 30 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 77 nationally towards 128,050 during the 7 days ending 27th June 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 219 new cases this week should translate to no more than three COVID deaths per month in July.
When the Alpha (Kent) variant was predominant commentators suggested that the UK could be approaching herd immunity due to both the success of the vaccination programme, and immunity of those who had already been infected by COVID-19.
The flare up of cases in the north, caused by the more transmissible Delta variant, indicates a higher level of vaccination is needed to counter a Reproduction Rate of 6 to 7.
The bell shaped chart below, based on a logistic function, shows how future UK daily cases might vary as surge testing and the ramping up of vaccinations dampens the fourth wave of the virus during the remainder of June and July.
Actual and projected UK daily cases to 31st July 2021
A ripple of cases amongst unvaccinated children and teenagers in early August cannot be ruled out once restrictions cease.
The
daily number of new cases of Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills district
remains fairly low and as most Seniors should
have had 2 jabs we judge the risk for most to be LOW;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
But remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Last year, 90% of COVID deaths were in those aged over 60 years according to NHS England statistics.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
It's possible, despite a second jab, for some Seniors to become ill with COVID-19 though for most, except the frail, this is likely to be a mild illness with symptoms akin to Hay Fever.
The simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE mask when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people outside your 'bubble' see note 2;
preferably meet friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR, else keep the windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
self-isolate and book a test if you have COVID-19 symptoms (the top five symptoms amongst the vaccinated are now said to be headache, runny nose, sore throat, sneezing and persistent cough).
keep away from areas where the infection rate is known to be high.
Hence the PMs mantra:-
HANDS, FACE, SPACE, FRESH AIR
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) If possible keep windows and doors open to improve ventilation when meeting others.
On Monday the PM announced that Step 3 of the exit from lockdown in England would be extended by 4 weeks to 19th July.
Click for PM statement at coronavirus press conference: 14 June 2021
During this time the plan is to finish double jabbing around two thirds of the adult population which would mean increasing the number double jabbed from 30M to 35M; we estimate this could be accomplished with only 132,000 jabs per day, half the present number.
Also to offer a first vaccination to all those aged 18+ by 19th July rather than the end of July. 42M are single jabbed to date and 54M are 18+, so in theory first vaccinations may need to be increased to 300,000 jabs per day (nearly double the present number).
The Welsh Health Minister said all adults in Wales had already been offered a first jab. We think this has been done by using all the vaccine allocated, whereas in England some vaccine is held in reserve for deployment to hot spots etc.
On Wednesday the BBC reported that Covid vaccination could become compulsory for care home staff looking after the elderly in England.
There was speculation in the media that the government has 50M Astrazeneca doses stockpiled and is receiving deliveries of 1.5M doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccine per week. This suggests to us a proportion of younger age groups may need to be vaccinated with Astrazeneca if targets are to be met.
On Thursday Italy announced visitors from the UK would have to quarantine for 5 days and pass a COVID test from next Monday irrespective of vaccination status in order to keep out the Delta variant.
Click to watch Tim Spector's weekly Zoe COVID update on YouTube
The situation is becoming increasingly confused as both the UK and other nations change the rules.
If you are worried about having to change plans or getting on a busy flight it might be best to take your holiday in the UK this year.
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - a shortage of vaccine has been limiting the vaccination rate in the UK, while plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in the year.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanoft | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible availability late 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen from 64 to 85 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire has risen to 30 and the Malvern Hills from 5 to 21.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
Areas of high infection (mostly now falling) include Blackburn 543, Ribble Valley 422, Rossendale 323, Bolton 296, and Salford 340.
The probability of catching Coronavirus within the Malvern Hills district remains fairly low, and as most Seniors have been vaccinated with 2 jabs we judge the risk LOW for all except the 'frail'.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is also LOW.
The middle aged can suffer from debilitating Long COVID so for those that have not been vaccinated and may be visiting areas where rates are high the risk might be judged MODERATE to HIGH.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearer the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 128,000 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 1 to 2 years before the 'dust' finally settles. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 21st June 2021