Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors27th June 2021 COVID LOCKDOWN in ENGLAND EXIT MOVED TO 19TH JULY Cases rising in the Malvern Hills district Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
|
Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 6,547 | +130 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 2,949 | +73 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 6,411 | +50 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 6,389 | +82 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 6,615 | +75 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 5,720 | +51 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 34,631 | +461 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 7,341 | +74 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 38,786 | +478 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 27th June 2021
The weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
Cases in the Malvern Hills are rising and are now ten times the rate in early May.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country. The map shows that, in addition to hot spots, infection rates have continued to creep up across the UK.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Ripples of the fourth wave are now being imported from outside Worcestershire. Recent weekly cases to 22nd June are: North Malvern 3; Malvern Link <3; Pickersleigh 5; Barnards Green <3; Malvern Wells and Priory 4; Callow End and Hanley 4; Upton and Welland 6. Not far away a hot-spot seems to be developing in Tewkesbury
The present level of cases should be nothing to worry about as vaccination levels are high amongst adults.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 124 in the last week to 128,100 while the daily average has risen from 10 to 18.
COVID-19 death rate 1st April to 27th June 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 11th June 2021 (week 23 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 23 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 101 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 83 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 85 | 0 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 116 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 119 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 106 | 0 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 610 | 0 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 11th June 2021
In the last week reported no COVID deaths were recorded in Worcestershire.
So far in England and Wales 84 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported by the ONS in the week to 14th June; 14 less than last week. Of these 12 were in a care home, 9 at home, 1 in a hospice, 61 in hospital and 1 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 25th June.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 808 | 0 |
Care hospitals | 63 | 0 |
TOTAL | 871 | 0 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 Daily Deaths
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 1,505 | +189 |
Patients on ventilation | 259 | +49 |
Patients admitted daily | 227 | +1 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 27th June 2021
The daily number of hospital admissions expressed as a 7 day average fell to 100 about 20th May but has crept up to 221 and might be expected to increase further in proportion to the rise in daily cases. If roughly 2,000 new cases per day last month led to 100 daily admissions, then the current 14,000 or so cases per day could see daily admissions rising towards 700. That said daily hospital admissions are growing more slowly suggesting fewer cases now require hospital admission.
In the past, the steady state number of COVID patients in hospital has been roughly ten time the number of patients admitted daily, so we could see the number of COVID patients in hospital rising towards 2,200 in the next week or so.
Recently we had assumed that due to vaccination just 1 in 15 of those admitted to hospital now dies (whereas last year it was 1 in 5). If we relate the latest average of 18 deaths per day to hospital admissions two weeks ago the figure may be nearer 1 in 10. In which case the present 221 hospital admissions per day could point to a COVID daily death rate of about 22 by mid July.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Recently there have been 4 COVID patients in Worcestershire Acute Hospitals, 2 les than last week.
The main point to note is that the number of Worcestershire COVID-19 beds occupied is very much lower than the peak of about 300 beds.
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 4th July) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 105,000 towards 4,838,000.
In Worcestershire up to 500 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and possibly 100 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 125 nationally towards 128,230 during the 7 days ending 4th July 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 461 new cases this week should translate to no more than 2 COVID deaths per week in July.
When the Alpha (Kent) variant was predominant commentators suggested that the UK could be approaching herd immunity due to both the success of the vaccination programme, and immunity of those who had already been infected by COVID-19.
The flare up of cases in the north, caused by the more transmissible Delta variant, indicates a higher level of vaccination is needed to counter a Reproduction Rate of 6 to 7.
The bell shaped chart below, based on a logistic function, shows how we thought future UK daily cases might vary as surge testing and the ramping up of vaccinations dampened the fourth wave of the virus during the remainder of June and July. This week's figures now suggest to us there are broadly three components: a background level of infection of about 2,000 cases per day, a 'bump' as shown in the chart, representing suppression of the first hot-spots of the Delta variant in the North, and newly emerging hot-spots which will be rising exponentially to start with.
Actual and last week's projection of UK daily cases to 31st July 2021
Daily cases have been rising since England moved to STEP 3 out of lockdown on 17th May, allowing more social mingling, so it's clear that so far vaccination and Test and Trace have been unable to contain the Delta variant of COVID-19.
What happens next is very uncertain and will depend on the extent to which the public continues to embrace physical distancing and the wearing of face masks, and whether the NHS has enough vaccine to say double the present rate of vaccination - which might make it possible for cases to fall in July roughly as shown by the blue curve. What we fear is that individuals will tire of the restrictions, while MPs and business managers will clamour for an end to all restrictions by 19th July which could lead to new daily cases rising towards 30,000 by the end of July, and in consequence the death rate rising towards 100 deaths per day, and COVID patients in hospital rising to say 7,000.
In addition a ripple of cases amongst unvaccinated children and teenagers in early August cannot be ruled out once restrictions cease.
Some scientists expect a bumpy ride as the UK emerges from lockdown.
The
daily number of new cases of Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills district
is rising but as most Seniors should
have had 2 jabs we judge the risk of death from COVID-19 for most to be LOW;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
But remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Last year, 90% of COVID deaths were in those aged over 60 years according to NHS England statistics.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
It's quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but it is unlikely you will need to be admitted to hospital.
The simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE mask when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people outside your 'bubble' see note 2;
preferably meet friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR, else keep the windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
self-isolate and book a test if you have COVID-19 symptoms (the top five symptoms amongst the vaccinated are now said to be headache, runny nose, sore throat, sneezing and persistent cough).
keep away from areas where the infection rate is known to be high.
Hence the PMs mantra:-
HANDS, FACE, SPACE, FRESH AIR
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
3) If possible keep windows and doors open to improve ventilation when meeting others.
On Wednesday Nadhim Zahawi gave an update on the vaccine rollout. 80% of adults have now received a first dose of vaccine and 60% have had two doses. Those over 40 years can expect to get their second dose within 8 weeks of the first.
Click for transcript of the vaccine update briefing
The REACT-2 study by Imperial College suggests up to 30% of those infected by COVID-19 may suffer Long COVID symptoms.
Click for BBC report on Long COVID
There are rumours a COVID DELTA plus variant has been detected in India; no details so far.
Click for BBC report on DELTA plus
On Thursday the BBC reported that vaccinated tourists returning to the UK might not need to quarantine.
In the evening the list of green, amber and red countries was updated.
Click to view government travel update
Surprisingly the government made no announcement about fully vaccinated tourists entering the UK from amber list countries not having to quarantine, effectively kicking the issue into the long grass.
The BBC reports up to 140,000 people are expected to attend the Silverstone Grand Prix in July. Allegedly this is one of a series of government experiments to assess the feasibility of return to normal.
On Friday the Zoe COVID Study weekly update on YouTube was published.
Daily cases have risen sharply this week and the Zoe team estimate there are currently 15,000 cases per day amongst the unvaccinated compared to 4,000 amongst those that have had either one or two doses of a vaccine. The protection factor for fully vaccinated individuals compared to the unvaccinated is thought to be about 20.
Infection rates are going up in Cornwall driven by unvaccinated younger people which could be due to a combination of holidays, half term, and the influx of press, police and others supporting the G7 Summit.
Click to watch Tim Spector's weekly Zoe COVID update on YouTube
Complacency and increased mingling sparked by the Euro football competition could also be contributing to the surge in daily cases across the UK.
Now if the basic reproduction rate of the Delta variant is 6.5 then ideally 85% of the UK population needs to be double jabbed to achieve herd immunity. In comparison currently only 50% of the UK population is fully vaccinated if children and teenagers are taken into account. So in the next month or so more flare-ups of the virus can be expected mostly amongst unvaccinated individuals particularly those reluctant to wear masks and maintain physical distancing.
The question is will these flare-ups matter? The ratio of daily hospital admissions and deaths to daily new cases is much lower than it was last year, due to vaccination of the elderly; even so deaths and hospital admissions could rise significantly in the summer were cases to rise out of control.
Ideally the proportion of vaccinated individuals needs to be increased markedly before restrictions are removed - however we doubt the present vaccination rate is fast enough to stop a surge of COVID-19 cases amongst the frail and unvaccinated after 19th July. Consequently we anticipate COVID daily hospital admissions and deaths could rise markedly during July and August, but not to the level seen last January.
On Saturday poor Matt Hancock resigned as Health Secretary following a photograph appearing in the Sun Newspaper showing him in an embrace with Gina Coladangelo whom he appointed last year to be a non-executive director at the Department of Health and Social Care.
A disgruntled employee is said to have put a spy camera in the Health Secretary's office!
Sajid Javid has been appointed the new Health Secretary.
Click for BBC article about the new Health Secretary
On Sunday Andrew Marr said he had caught COVID-19 despite two jabs earlier in the year and he felt very poorly.
The NHS reported that 50% of 18 to 29 year olds had received a first jab.
The situation is becoming increasingly confused as both the UK and other nations change the rules.
If you are worried about either having to change plans or getting on a busy flight it might be best to take your holiday in the UK this year.
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - a shortage of vaccine has been limiting the vaccination rate in the UK, while plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in the year.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanoft | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible availability late 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen from 85 to 120 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire has risen to 55 and the Malvern Hills to 67.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
Areas of high infection, mostly now falling, include Blackburn 486, Ribble Valley 366, Rossendale 384, Bolton 255, and Salford 367.
Other areas with many cases include Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool, Wigan, Manchester, County Durham, Newcastle on Tyne, Glasgow and Edinburgh
The probability of catching Coronavirus within the Malvern Hills district remains moderate, but as most Seniors have been vaccinated with 2 jabs we judge the risk of death LOW for all except the 'frail'.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is also LOW.
The middle aged can suffer from debilitating Long COVID so for those that have not been vaccinated and may be visiting areas where rates are high the risk might be judged MODERATE to HIGH.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearer the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 128,000 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 1 to 2 years before the 'dust' finally settles. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 27th June 2021