Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors
We have been away, so our next update will be on 1st August
18th July 2021
ENGLAND EXITING LOCKDOWN ON 19TH JULY
Cases continue to rise in the Malvern Hills district
We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district.
This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.
Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:
How to get vaccinated
The most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage others to get theirs.
Vaccinations can now be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment.
Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm
Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm
(AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available)
Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW
How to request a COVID test
In order to protect others it is important to book a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms.
There are now two types of test you can get. The accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the quicker Lateral Flow test.
Getting a PCR test
Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:
In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.
There is a 'walk through' COVID testing station at County Hall next to the Countrywide Centre; one has been set up at the Worcester Arena car park on the University of Worcester site in Hylton Road to serve the residents of St Johns; and there is also a drive through pod at the Worcester Royal Hospital.
The nearest COVID testing station is on the upper level of the car park below Great Malvern library on the corner of Victoria Road and Como Road.
These are not drop-ins and you will need to book - but there is said to be good availability and you should get the result back in about 24 hours.
If you test COVID positive you should self isolate for 10 days.
Getting a Lateral Flow test
Lateral Flow tests can now be taken at Great Malvern Library, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, and Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green. This test is chiefly intended to screen working people who show no symptoms and can either be pre-booked or at the library you can walk in. You should also be able to collect kits from the library to use at home.
If you test COVID positive you should take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result, as false positives can occur.
About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)
You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.
For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com
The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is likely to be an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.
If you have had a jab there are new questions allowing you to enter the vaccine type and any side effects. If you do not see these questions you may need to update the app.
NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)
Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.
The app provides a means for tracing people who have unknowingly been near someone who has tested COVID positive.
Note: now that the majority of adults have been vaccinated, the need for and benefits of the app are being questioned. From 16th August fully vaccinated individuals won't have to self isolate if they are pinged by the App.
Bear in mind vaccinated individuals can still catch COVID and pass it to others.
You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status.
Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app
If you don't have a smartphone you may be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.
18th July 2021
Some Seniors are fearful and concerned about the government lifting COVID restrictions on 19th July, whereas others are not, but the Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Witty and commentator Dr Chris Smith agree it is probably better to lift restrictions now than wait until the winter when people spend more time indoors.
In this week's blog we have attempted to paint a picture of how the numbers might change during the next 6 weeks.
It will not be plain sailing. Cases of COVID can be expected to follow a bell shaped curve with cases spiralling during the summer, possibly towards 100,000 cases per day, and falling back in late autumn. Don't be surprised if the government calls another lockdown due to hospitals filling with COVID-19 patients.
For the time being life for Seniors remains very much back to normal in the rural Malvern Hills, despite daily cases of COVID-19 continuing to rise sharply in Worcestershire, but this could change, so be ready to put on your metaphorical 'tin hat' in the next week or two.
If one in forty new cases is admitted to hospital as Sir David Spiegelhalter suggests there is going to be a significant load on the NHS during August and waiting lists will increase.
During July and August expect many more people to catch COVID-19 and become poorly, despite being fully vaccinated. Thankfully most should not need treatment in hospital.
It is recommended after 19th July you continue wearing a face covering in indoor settings and continue with physical distancing as cases are spiralling in the county. Click to view our advice.
A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.
You can see at a glance the percentage of people vaccinated by age group on the Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard.
Adults aged 18+ can now book a jab on-line without having to wait for a call from their GP surgery.
Note: there is a mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground where first vaccinations can be obtained without having to make an appointment.
Alternatively contact your GP surgery.
Extension of vaccination to children aged 12+ could follow but the media thinks vaccination will be restricted to the most vulnerable children and those living with vulnerable adults.
Two jabs are necessary to protect against the Delta variant of COVID-19.
The bar chart below shows the population of the UK by age band (1), and the number of first (2) and second jabs (3) given, so that you can see overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK.
Vaccinometer as of 18th July 2021
Total first jabs are reported 46,295,853 to the 18th July. Second jabs are reported 35,970,849.
In comparison the adult population of the UK aged 18+ is 54,000,000 and if children are included the total is about 66,000,000 so there is a long way to go before the whole country is fully vaccinated.
The daily total of first and second vaccinations has been fallen despite the government saying vaccinations would be 'surged' during the extension of STEP 3. The target to give a first jab to all those aged 18+ years by 19th July will fall short by 7 million largely due to vaccine hesitancy amongst those aged under 30 years.
Mass vaccination centres are now fairly empty and people are not attending their booked slots.
So the government needs to put a lot more effort into encouraging the hesitant to take the vaccine.
A second target was offer 2nd jabs to two thirds of the adult population by 19th July which is 36M. This target has been met but you will see from the chart above there is much more work to do before the UK can be considered fully vaccinated.
The next target is to offer all those aged 18+ a second jab by mid September.
Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
There are many charts which some may find confusing, but look for the chart showing share of people who have received at least one dose of COVID-vaccine.
Hint: click TABLE tab to see more countries.
Vaccination numbers in the EU are creeping up. The share of people who have received at least one dose to 15th July are Germany 59%, Belgium 66%, Spain 62%, Italy 60% and France 54%. In comparison 68% of the UK population (including children) has received at least one dose.
New Zealand 17%, Australia 28%, India 23%, Russia 22% and Japan 32% are still lagging behind, whilst in Africa few have been vaccinated.
Number of cases
During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose from 31,579 new cases per day to 45,242. The chart below shows broadly how the daily rate has varied since 1st September.
UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September to 18th July 2021
The next chart shows in more detail how daily cases have varied between 1st June and the 18th July. You will see the growth is faster some weeks than others, and it would be interesting know the factors behind this.
More than half new cases are said to be unvaccinated individuals aged under 30 years, but many vaccinated Seniors are also catching COVID.
UK daily new confirmed COVID cases 1st June to 18th July 2021
During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 312,694 to 5,433,939.
In Worcestershire there have now been 40,391 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 3,036 on last week. The number of daily cases has risen from 247 to 434 suggesting the Effective COVID Reproduction Rate in the county remains 1.7 while it needs to be <1.
The next chart shows in blue how daily cases have ramped up in Worcestershire since 1st June 2021 to 434, doubling every 11 days or so, and in red how cases could rise by the end of July if exponential growth is maintained.
Projected daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st June to 31st July 2021
The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.
Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 18th July 2021
The weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
Nevertheless you will see cases in Worcestershire are soaring and the infection rate per head of population now exceeds that in the City of Leicester.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country. The map, which is increasingly turning purple, shows that infection rates are continuing to rise in England, while encouragingly rates have fallen in some areas of Scotland.
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Ripples of the fourth wave continue to spread into Worcestershire. Recent weekly cases to 13th July are: North Malvern 27; Malvern Link 15; Pickersleigh 22; Barnards Green 10; Malvern Wells and Priory 21; Callow End and Hanley 32; Upton and Welland 21.
Number of deaths
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 283 in the last week to 128,708 while the daily average has increased from 29 to 40 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st May to 18th July 2021
On average, the daily rate is increasing by one every day.
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 2nd July 2021 (week 26 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 2nd July 2021
Once again no COVID deaths were recorded in Worcestershire but expect this to change in coming weeks as new cases mount.
So far in England and Wales 109 COVID-19 related deaths have been reported by the ONS in the week to 2nd July; 11 more than last week. Of these 10 were in a care home, 11 at home, 2 in a hospice, 84 in hospital and 2 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
NHS England figures
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 16th July.
The first death in a month was recorded this week. During the summer we anticipate the COVID death rate in Worcestershire could rise towards 30 deaths per week.
Risk of COVID-19 death by age band
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of recent deaths for the period 1st June 2021 to 8th July 2021 when the death rate averaged 10 deaths per day.
Risk of COVID-19 death by age band
Those aged 60+ years still account for 76% of deaths compared to 92% last year, but remember the death rate as a proportion of new cases is much lower than in 2020.
Most fatalities are said to have been vulnerable people with an unhealthy lifestyle, and the obese.
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 18th July 2021
The daily number of hospital admissions expressed as a 7 day average fell to 100 about 20th May but has risen to 740 and might be expected to increase further in proportion to the rise in daily cases. If roughly 2,000 new cases per day in May led to 100 daily admissions, then the current (average) 45,000 or so cases per day could see daily admissions rising towards 2,250. Alternatively using Sir David Spiegelhalter's ratio of 1 in 40, daily hospital admissions might be 1,125 per day.
In the past, the steady state number of COVID patients in hospital has been roughly ten times the number of patients admitted daily, so we could see the number of COVID patients in hospital rising to between 11,250 and 25,000 in August. This would be a significant burden on the NHS, as it had huge difficulty coping with 40,000 COVID patients earlier in the year.
Last week we assumed that due to vaccination 1 in 13 of those admitted to hospital now dies (whereas last year it was 1 in 5). If we relate the latest average of 40 deaths per day to hospital admissions two weeks ago the figure might be nearer 1 in 9, in which case the present 740 hospital admissions per day could point to a COVID daily death rate of about 80 in the first half of August, and were daily hospital admissions to reach 2,250 it's not impossible the death rate might be heading towards 250 by the end of August.
Worcestershire hospital beds
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Recently there have been 13 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 3 are ventilated bed; an increase of 5 on last week.
As the fourth or EXIT wave progresses don't be surprised to see the number of COVID beds in Worcestershire rising towards 100, compared to 260 at the peak of the epidemic.
Note: it's possible as hospitals fill in Birmingham, where there are many more cases, part of the overflow could be sent to acute hospitals in Worcestershire raising numbers further.
Forecast for the week ahead
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 25th July) the cumulative total of new UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 350,000 towards 5,785,000.
In Worcestershire 4,500 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and up to 500 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 315 nationally towards 129,025 during the 7 days ending 25th July 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 3,036 new cases this week should translate to no more than 9 COVID deaths per week in early August.
Longer term forecast
When the Alpha (Kent) variant was predominant commentators suggested that the UK could be approaching herd immunity due to both the success of the vaccination programme, and immunity of those who had already been infected by COVID-19. The flare up of cases across the UK caused by the more transmissible Delta variant suggested a higher level of vaccination such as 85% might be needed to counter the Delta Reproduction Rate estimated 6 to 7. However this assumes that vaccinated individuals do not catch COVID and pass it on to others.
In fact, vaccinated individuals are catching COVID, but there seem to be no established figure for the reduction in transmission. If it is assumed transmission is reduced by a factor of ten then vaccination of 94% of the population would be needed to achieve herd immunity. If the reduction is slightly less than ten approaching 99% have to be vaccinated, whilst if the reduction is not enough to cancel out the Reproduction Rate of the virus then herd immunity becomes impossible to achieve.
Currently only 55% of the population has been fully vaccinated, so after the 19th July when legal restrictions are lifted we must continue to rely on social distancing and wearing face coverings in crowded enclosed settings, else risk the virus spreading exponentially and overwhelming the NHS.
The next chart shows the rolling average of daily cases in red and an illustration of possible future cases assuming these follow the present trajectory.
Illustration of possible future UK daily cases to 31st July 2021
The blue curve is a truncated exponential function approximating to the wobbly rise in cases since the 18th June. This suggests daily cases might rise to 70,000 by the end of July if behaviour remains as it is.
After the government lifts restrictions on 19th July we can expect fewer COVID cases in children due to the end of the summer term, offset by more mingling of adults in social and business settings, and families visiting tourist destinations. More and more pockets of infection are likely to flare up as the virus moves across the four nations of the UK seeking out the vulnerable and unvaccinated resulting in high levels of infection throughout the summer.
A sensitivity analysis of SPI-M modelling results indicates that it is impossible to forecast with any accuracy whether the NHS will be overwhelmed by COVID patients in August. So the government says the figures will be watched very carefully and measures would be taken should there be any danger of strain on the NHS.
Scientists also say it is impossible to predict when the EXIT wave will peak and that will probably not be known for sure until two or three weeks after the peak is past.
Sajid Javid has already warned that 'bed blocking' by COVID patients is likely to seriously extend hospital waiting lists.
So far the COVID death rate during the 'fourth or EXIT wave' has remained low and our hope is that it won't rise much above 100 before falling back in the autumn, as the percentage of the population vaccinated rises, and survivors develop immunity, although models suggest rates of up to 300 deaths per day cannot be ruled out.
Little is being done to protect those aged under 18 years and a ripple of cases amongst unvaccinated children and teenagers can be expected when pupils return to school in September.
We'll just have to wait and see how things pan out in coming weeks and adjust our behaviour accordingly.
Advice for Seniors
Due to vaccination the death rate this summer is broadly a factor of 15 times lower than last year. However the daily number of new cases of Coronavirus in the Malvern Hills district has been rising sharply, and 76% of deaths are still amongst those aged 60+ years, despite most Seniors having had 2 jabs. We therefore judge the risk of death from COVID-19 for fully vaccinated Seniors to be in the range LOW for the healthy towards MODERATE for the frail and vulnerable; see our annex and riskometer opposite.
Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
Like Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.
Until this summer's crisis is over the simple safeguards to remember are to:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
Annex to 18th July update
On Monday the PM held a press briefing confirming England would move to STEP 4, the lifting of most legal restrictions, on 19th July 2021. He struck a more cautious tone than the previous week emphasising that we must continue to be cautious to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed with COVID patients in August.
He emphasised face coverings should continue to be worn in crowded settings such as public transport.
Contrary to last week the PM urged nightclubs and other venues with large crowds to make use of the NHS Covid Pass - which shows proof of either vaccination, a recent negative test or natural immunity – as a means of entry.
Guidance would be updated for the Clinically Extremely Vulnerable on how they can keep themselves safe.
We imagine the extremely vulnerable are going to have to self-isolate once again.
Also on Monday, SPI-M Modelling results dated 7th July were published setting out what might happen after the lifting of restrictions on 19th July.
SPI-M say that all the models show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August - there is high uncertainty about the scale of the peak in prevalence - and the scale of the next wave in hospital admissions is also highly uncertain.
Our interpretation of the modelling is that new daily cases might peak at between 60,000 and 100,000 sometime between mid August and mid September; daily hospital admissions could peak at somewhere in the range 800 to 5,000 in September; COVID hospital bed occupancy could reach 20,000; and the daily death rate could peak somewhere between 200 and 600.
The projections mostly follow a bell shaped curve with the fourth or EXIT wave of the epidemic tailing off by Christmas 2021.
On Tuesday South Shields was mentioned as having the highest infection rate in England.
On Wednesday the Mayor of London said a bye law would be introduced requiring the wearing of face coverings on public transport, which would not be law but a condition of carriage.
Majorca, Menorca, Ibiza and the British Virgin Islands were moved to the Amber travel list.
On Friday we heard Worcestershire grab-a-jab vaccination clinics would be open during July as follows:
If you are 18 or over you can grab a Jab at the following sites. No need to book, simply turn up to get your vaccination.
On Friday evening the government announced that travellers entering England from France, which is on the Amber list, would have to quarantine after 19th July irrespective of vaccination status. This was said to be due to the South African or Beta variant circulating in France, which makes one wonder what protection the Astrazeneca vaccine provides against Beta?
On Saturday the media reported the Chief Medical Officer and ex Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt as saying England could be forced back into lockdown within 5 weeks.
Health Secretary Sajid Javid said he had tested COVID positive despite being fully vaccinated.
Denmark put the UK except Wales on their red list.
There are rumours that a shortage of lorry drivers together with people being pinged to self isolate is resulting in delayed deliveries to some supermarkets.
Other weekly updates
According to the Zoe COVID study the most common symptoms of COVID are now.
Unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals are being infected in roughly equal numbers.
Cases are rising steeply in the NE but going down in London.
We probably have yet to see the after-effect of the Euro football matches and the lifting of restrictions.
In Europe cases in Spain and the Netherlands are rising steeply like those in the UK while Portugal and Greece are not far behind.
The first 25 minutes of the weekly Independent SAGE briefing is worth looking at if you are interested in charts and how the numbers are changing:-
Confusion over travel arrangements has returned. Travellers from the UK are unlikely to be welcome abroad as infection rates in England and Scotland are very high.
It is now possible to get an NHS Vaccination Pass for overseas travel, which will require you to prove your identity for example by providing a photo of your passport; this should facilitate return to the UK from Amber list countries, except France.
List of vaccines (unchanged)
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - a shortage of vaccine had been limiting the vaccination rate in the UK earlier in the year, but possibly not now. Plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in 2021 some of which may be needed for booster jabs and vaccinating those aged 12 - 18 years.
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
Present rate of new cases and risk
The hotspots in England and Scotland are expanding across the whole of the UK and the general infection rate is now very high; were it not for the vaccines the death rate would be heading towards 1,000 deaths per day.
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen from 301 to 399 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire has risen to 393 and the Malvern Hills to 291.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
There is now a fair chance of catching COVID-19 within the Malvern Hills, but as most Seniors have been vaccinated with 2 jabs we judge the risk of death LOW for the healthy, and MODERATE for the frail and vulnerable.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW. There is however emerging concern that one in six youngsters might suffer from Long COVID.
The middle aged can suffer from debilitating Long COVID so for those that have not been vaccinated the risk might be judged HIGH.
COVID-19 can seriously damage the organs of the very ill admitted to hospital.
About the final UK COVID-19 death toll (unchanged)
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearer the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 129,000 deaths a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as Australia, New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 1 to 2 years before the 'dust' finally settles. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
Summary of Links
Reporting and how to obtain a test
How to get a test
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
The bigger picture
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
World Health Organisation info
Window on the USA
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 26th July 2021