Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors22nd August 2021 DAILY CASES INCREASING Take care as virus widespread
Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus How to get vaccinatedThe most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs. The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get you booster shot when the time comes. During August first vaccinations can be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment. Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm (AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available) Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 9,546 | +406 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 4,384 | +223 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 8,469 | +248 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 9,337 | +263 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 9,142 | +311 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 8,050 | +248 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 48,928 | +1,699 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 10,527 | +703 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 48,928 | +1,496 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 22nd August 2021
The increase is similar to last week, except for Bromsgrove and the Malvern Hills which have seen a significant rise.
Cases have risen sharply in Herefordshire, believed to be caused by unvaccinated youngsters socialising and then infecting their families.
Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show the variation in infection rate across the country. This week the map shows that infection rates are moderate across most of Scotland and parts of Wales; still high and increasing across much of England; and very high in Northern Ireland.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Recent weekly cases to 17th August are: North Malvern 16; Malvern Link 16; Pickersleigh 24; Barnards Green 11; Malvern Wells and Priory 19; Callow End and Hanley 10; Upton and Welland 24.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 687 in the last week to 131,640 while the daily average has increased from 90 to 98 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 22nd August 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 6th August 2021 (week 31 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 31 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 106 | 1 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 83 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 85 | 0 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 117 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 122 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 106 | 0 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 619 | 1 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 6th August 2021
In week 31 just one COVID related death was reported in hospital in Bromsgrove.
In England and Wales 524 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 6th August; 122 more than the week before. Of these 32 were in a care home, 38 at home, 7 in a hospice, 437 in hospital and 10 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 20th August 2021.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 819 | 4 |
Care hospitals | 63 | 0 |
TOTAL | 882 | 4 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths
For a second week there have been 4 COVID deaths in Worcestershire; this epidemic is by no means over.
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st June 2021 to 15th August 2021 over which the death rate rose to 90 deaths per day.
Age band | Number of deaths | % of deaths |
0 - 19 | 7 | 0.3 |
20 - 39 | 67 | 3 |
40 - 59 | 300 | 14 |
60 - 79 | 862 | 42 |
80+ | 834 | 40 |
Risk of COVID-19 death by age band
Those aged 60+ years now account for 82% of deaths compared to 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is about ten times lower than in 2020.
The infection rate in England is currently 320 in 100,000 per week so even if this continued all year the chance of catching COVID would be no more than 1 in 7.
A few weeks ago the probability of dying of COVID had been about 1 in 500 of those that test COVID positive (see below) and as most deaths are amongst the elderly the chance of healthy Seniors dying of COVID must be about 1 in 1,000 of those infected, and the probability of dying of COVID in any one year no more than say 1 in 10,000.
These odds may not worry fully vaccinated healthy Seniors wanting to make the most of their remaining years.
On the other hand the risk-averse might be cautious bearing in mind that the vaccine does not work for about one person in twenty, for example the immuno-suppressed.
There are few COVID deaths in the Malvern Hills now thanks to the vaccination programme, but prior to this there were 144 deaths. Malvern nurse Julie Ann Omar had been one of the first victims of the Coronavirus epidemic. She sadly died self-isolating at home on the 20th April 2020 aged 52 years, after working at the Alexandra hospital in Redditch.
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital COVID cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 6,441 | +566 |
Patients on ventilation | 928 | + 46 |
Patients admitted daily | 948 | + 68 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 22nd August 2021
Daily hospital admissions and bed occupancy have been creeping up but there are currently no signs of extreme pressure being put on hospitals.
As a guide from observing peaks in the charts a few weeks ago it looked as though roughly:-
1 in 50 of new of cases are hospitalised 8 days after testing positive.
1 in 500 of new cases die on average 20 days after being tested positive.
These ratios depend on the percentage of infected individuals coming forward to be tested, the proportion of young people in the mix, and the effectiveness of the vaccines which will vary over time. Recent data suggests more pessimistic ratios of 1:30 and 1:300. So far, there appear to be few official figures in the public domain but on 13th September the ONS plans to publish an analysis of deaths by vaccination status for the period 1st Jan - 2nd July 2021 which may shed light on how well the vaccines are protecting us.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.
There are now 41 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 5 are ventilated beds; roughly 15% of the peak experienced last January.
Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 29th August) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by at least 235,000 towards 6,730,000, while the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases could rise from 32,484 to somewhere between 34,000 and 37,000 new cases per day.
In Worcestershire about 1,700 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 220 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 700 towards 132,340 during the 7 days ending 29th August 2021.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 1,699 new cases this week should translate to no more than 4 COVID deaths per week in the first half of September.
During the last week daily cases have been steadily rising but not at an exponential rate. We had previously speculated that due to vaccination and immunity arising from past infections a tipping point had been reached where public behaviour could strongly influence whether, in any week, the 7 day average of daily cases went up or down.
We now know the scales are tipping up, and as people become less cautious and mingle over the autumn Bank Holiday cases are certain to rise further. Another rise can be expected after students go back to schools/universities in the autumn, following which cases could 'surge' as more time is spent indoors during the winter with cases of Long COVID, hospital admissions, and deaths following in proportion.
If the number of UK hospital beds occupied by COVID patients rises towards 10,000 the government may be forced to re-impose some restrictions.
Scientists have said it is impossible to predict when the EXIT wave will peak and that will probably not be known for sure until at least three weeks after the peak is past. It is likely the spike in daily cases in the middle of July caused by football supporters was not the peak. Cases are still very high and it's too early to rule out further 'bumps in the road' during the autumn and winter.
Cases have been rising steeply in Israel where the population was the first to be inocculated, using the Pfizer vaccine. So it seems doubtful that the present vaccines, designed for the original virus, will bring the epidemic to a halt in the UK where the Delta (Indian) variant is prevalent.
We'll just have to wait and see how things pan out during coming weeks and adjust our behaviour accordingly.
Mutations of the virus are constantly evolving around the world and the scenario could change were a more deadly variant of COVID-19 to enter the UK which escapes the current vaccines.
Currently
there are no more than four COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire so we therefore judge the
risk of death for fully vaccinated
Seniors to be
LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
Like Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.
Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR, else, if you can, keep doors and windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell (the top five symptoms amongst the vaccinated in order of prevalence are now said to be headache, runny nose, sneezing, sore throat and loss of smell).
keep away from crowded indoor settings and areas where the infection rate is known to be high.
Respect others and give them space.
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
On Sunday Holy Communion was held at Madresfield Church, there was quite a good attendance and we sang hymns for the first time in 18 months. In the afternoon there was a parish tea party in Guarlford Village hall with cakes provided by the WI to celebrate all workers who played a part in helping us through this pandemic. It felt as though the pandemic was over.
On Wednesday we heard some Stena ferry services between Holyhead and Dublin had been replaced by an alternative service from Cairnryan in Scotland to Belfast on account of COVID quarantine restrictions linked to BREXIT.
The Moderna vaccine was approved by MHRA for 12 to 17 year olds. It's now up to JCVI and the government whether to implement a vaccination programme.
On Friday we heard mention of a case of COVID in a care home in Great Malvern, the death of a 57 year old who had been double jabbed, and the death of three people in their 30's who had chosen not to be vaccinated.
There have been a handful of cases of the Delta variant in New Zealand linked to someone returning from Australia and it will be interesting to see if the outbreak can be contained. Vaccination though late is being ramped up.
On Saturday the Times Sport page had an article about Newcastle United goalkeeper Karl Darlow who had caught COVID and urged people to get the vaccine.
We wondered if the COVID epidemic was over but now we are not so sure as cases, hospital admissions and deaths continue to rise, albeit at a slow pace.
In principal daily hospital admissions and deaths as a percentage of cases should have dipped lower following the July peak in daily cases. The fact there has only been a small dip suggests either daily cases were higher than reported by PHE for example because some of those feeling sick chose to to rest at home not bothering to get tested, or the effectiveness of the vaccines is waning for those vaccinated at the start of the year. We imagine it could be a combination of the two. Note the Zoe COVID study estimates 48,000 new cases per day compared to the PHE rolling average of just 32,000.
Hearsay is that 1 in 20 people catching COVID may develop Long COVID, the probability increasing with age and number of initial symptoms. So for every death there could be say 15 patients suffering from Long COVID.
The media reports that booster jabs will be offered from September 2021. We thought new vaccines were being developed to counter the prevailing variants of COVID, but it looks like Seniors will be offered the vaccines developed for the original strain of COVID-19, which probably offer adequate protection.
The government has been strangely quiet since the lifting of COVID restrictions on the 19th July. This is understandable; the PM will have waited to see what happened and, immediately after, cases dropped dramatically - then MPs and civil servants went on their summer holidays. The new Health Secretary Sajid Javid has been conspicuous by his absence but no doubt he will be back in September to update the nation on the COVID-19 epidemic.
Here are links to the weekly Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE updates:-
Click to watch Zoe COVID Study 18th August update
The Zoe COVID Study suggests the breakdown of daily cases is,
The fact fully vaccinated individuals are catching COVID should not be a concern providing the vaccines protect against hospitalisation. A recent ONS report says the vaccines are more than 90% effective in reducing hospitalisation.
Click for Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights: Vaccines 20 August 2021
The first part of the Independent SAGE weekly briefing covers how the numbers have been changing:-
Click to watch Independent SAGE 20th August briefing
It is getting easier to travel overseas but we have given up reading UK government overseas travel advice which seems to vary day to day.
Clearly all governments are working towards facilitating travel for fully vaccinated individuals but it could be many months before things return to near normal.
For example, while fully vaccinated individuals from the US and most EU countries can now enter the UK without having to quarantine, you will have to quarantine in an expensive government hotel if you return from Mexico, and it is doubtful you will be let into Singapore or NZ.
It's possible to get an NHS Vaccination Pass for overseas travel, which requires you to prove your identity for example by providing a photo of your passport; this may facilitate return to the UK from Amber list countries.
Click for information about the NHS COVID Pass
Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK - a shortage of vaccine had been limiting the vaccination rate in the UK earlier in the year, but possibly not now. Plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in 2021 some of which may be needed for booster jabs and vaccinating those aged 12 - 18 years.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60+35 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 | A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanofi | 60 | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expect approval end 2021. |
Curevac | 50 | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021 |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen slightly to 320 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is now 265 and the Malvern Hills 233.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors without underlying conditions catching and dying from COVID-19 is now probably less than 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk LOW. A greater number may suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE. A member of the family, now recovered, had Long COVID and it was very debilitating.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW. There had been concern about youngsters suffering from Long COVID but a recent report by King's College London suggests this is not a major issue.
Click for report - Long COVID uncommon in children, analysis finds
The UK is going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which could increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this may result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.
The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 131,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether border controls will be enough to stop the spread of the Delta variant.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 23rd August 2021