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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

12th September 2021

DAILY CASES MAY BE DIPPING

Take care as virus widespread

Chad Skip preamble and go to summary

Skip to advice

Skip to links at end

Skip to menu of archived pages

Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district.

This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

How to get vaccinated

The most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs.

The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get your booster shot when the time comes.

During August first vaccinations could be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment (check still open if you intend to go).

Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm

Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm

(AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available)

Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW

How to request a COVID test

In order to protect others it is important to book a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms.

There are now two types of test you can get. The accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.

Click for government guidance on types of tests

Getting a PCR test

Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:

https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test

In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

There is a 'walk through' COVID testing station at County Hall next to the Countrywide Centre; one had been set up at the Worcester Arena car park on the University of Worcester site in Hylton Road to serve the residents of St Johns; and there has been a drive through pod at the Worcester Royal Hospital.

The COVID testing station on the upper level of the car park below Great Malvern library on the corner of Victoria Road and Como Road has closed so you may either have to go into Worcester or order a Home Test Kit.

If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days.

Getting a Lateral Flow Device test

Lateral Flow tests can now be taken at Great Malvern Library, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, and Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green. This test is intended to screen those who show no symptoms and can either be pre-booked on-line or you may be able to walk-in at the library.

COVID Lateral Flow Device You can also collect home test kits, packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from the library and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park. (Lateral Flow Device shown on the right).

Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern

Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.

Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests

In our opinion, many Seniors will find the home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.

If you test COVID positive you should take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result, as false positives can occur.

In any event you should report the result at:

www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result

COVID LFD box

Home test kit obtained from Prospect View

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.

If you have had a jab there are questions allowing you to enter the vaccine type and any side effects.

NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you will be advised to self-isolate

From 16th August fully vaccinated individuals don't need to self-isolate. However if you are feeling poorly and get pinged it is recommended you take a COVID test, and self-isolate if the result is positive.

Bear in mind fully vaccinated individuals can still catch COVID and pass it on to others.

NHS app

You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status.

Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app

If you don't have a smartphone you may be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.

Some months ago Nadhim Zahawi, the vaccines minister, said the government had no intention of introducing vaccine passports; then the PM thought it's a jolly good idea calling it the NHS Covid Pass; it's an option, still being considered by UK and other governments.

You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home.

12th September 2021

Summary

Despite a small dip in Worcestershire daily cases, COVID remains widespread so Seniors are advised to continue taking precautions to reduce the risk of catching the virus; such as regular hand-washing, wearing a face covering where recommended, and continuing with physical distancing.

The Effective Reproduction Rate is hovering close to one so that, were everyone to reduce contacts, daily cases should fall. Alternatively hospital admissions and the COVID daily death rate could increase later in October as adults return to work, pupils to school, and students to university, with more time being spent indoors as the weather deteriorates.

We may have to wait another month or more to be sure of the direction of travel.

Meanwhile life for Seniors remains very much back to normal in the rural Malvern Hills. Like us you may feel 'fireproof' after being fully vaccinated; but the vaccine is not a magic bullet so don't be too surprised if you or some of your friends become poorly. Fully vaccinated individuals can catch COVID and pass it on to others, but thankfully most should not need treatment in hospital, though sadly, a minority, particularly the elderly and frail with underlying conditions, may die of COVID despite being fully vaccinated; the government should be publishing statistics quantifying the risk next week.

Booster jabs could start being rolled out for the most elderly in mid September with most of those aged 70+ receiving a booster jab by Christmas.

Click to view our advice.

Click for guidance on what you can and cannot do

A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Click to go to our annex/commentary

Vaccinations

You can see the percentage of people vaccinated by age group on the Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

In Barnards Green only 63% of those aged 18 - 24 years have had a first jab whereas in North Malvern the figure is 81%.

In the Malvern Hills district 96% of those aged 65+ have had two jabs, compared to only 55% of those aged 18 - 24 years.

Adults aged 18+ can book a jab on-line without having to wait for a call from their GP surgery.

There is a mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground where first vaccinations can be obtained without having to make an appointment.

Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

Alternatively contact your GP surgery.

Those aged 16 and 17 years are now eligible to get a first jab without the need for parental consent; initial take up is said to be 'encouraging'.

Vaccination of children aged 12 - 15 is currently restricted to vulnerable children and those living with vulnerable adults, but we anticipate the government may shortly bow to pressure from the media and authorise vaccination of all those aged 12+ years, subject to parental consent.

Two jabs are essential to protect against the Delta variant of COVID-19.

The bar chart below shows the population of the UK by age band (1), and the number of first (2) and second jabs (3) given, so that you can see overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK.

COVID vaccination bar chart

Vaccinometer as of 12th September 2021

The vaccination rate has fallen to snail's pace and you will see little change to last week's chart. Total first jabs are reported 48,422,588 to the 12th September. Second jabs are reported 43,991,875.

The adult population of the UK aged 15+ is about 55,000,000 and if all children are included the total is 66,000,000 so there is a way to go for the whole country to be fully vaccinated. Achieving herd immunity now seems doubtful as the fully vaccinated can easily catch the Delta variant of COVID-19, but it's still important to protect as many people as possible from serious illness.

The target has been to offer all those aged 18+ a second jab by mid September. Targets have not been announced for those in the 12 - 17 years band.

The NHS has produced a video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated.

Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

There are many charts which some may find confusing, but look for the chart showing share of people who have received at least one dose of COVID-vaccine.

Click for chart showing % vaccinated

Hint: click TABLE tab to see more countries.

Vaccination numbers in the EU are now similar to or better than those in the UK. This is probably because the UK has lagged behind Europe in vaccinating those aged under 18 years.

Number of cases

During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose from 35,596 to 38,905 cases per day, but has fallen to 36,002 in the last few days.

The ZOE COVID Study on the other hand estimates 48,000 cases per day, higher than the PHE figure, but a significant fall on last week.

The chart below shows broadly how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September.

COVID daily new cases

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 12th September 2021

Zooming in, the next chart shows in more detail how daily UK cases have dipped in the last few days despite cases rising steeply in Scotland.

Daily COVID cases to 2nd May 2021

UK daily new confirmed COVID cases 1st August to 12th September 2021

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 248,150 to 7,226,276.

The next chart shows how daily cases have varied in Worcestershire during the last 6 weeks.

COVID cases in Worcestershire

Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st August to 12th September 2021

In Worcestershire there have now been 53,906 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 1,634 on last week, while the number of daily cases has fallen from 259 to 233 suggesting locally the Effective COVID Reproduction Rate is just under one.

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.

Districts of Worcs	Cases	Weekly increase	Population
Bromsgrove	10,624	+310	98,529
Malvern Hills	4,889	+156	77,545
Redditch	9,265	+287	85,317
Worcester	10,097	+233	103,542
Wychavon	10,028	+317	126,240
Wyre Forest	9,003	+331	100,957
TOTAL	53,906	+1,634	592,130
COMPARE WITH
County of Hereford	12,312	+588	195,000
Leicester (city of)	53,225	+1,507	400,000

Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 12th September 2021

Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.

Interactive maps

At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country. This week the map shows much of the UK has remained dark blue indicating high infection rates, with patches of purple indicating higher rates particularly in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.

Recent weekly cases to 6th September are: North Malvern 22; Malvern Link 29; Pickersleigh 23; Barnards Green 8; Malvern Wells and Priory 10; Callow End and Hanley 11; Upton and Welland 16.

Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.

Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)

The Zoe map shows pockets of high infection are scattered across the UK with no clear pattern.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.

PHE figures

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes has risen by 971 in the last week to 134,200 while the daily average has increased from 113 to 139 deaths per day roughly tracking daily cases reported 20 days earlier.

UK COVID death rate

COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 12th September 2021

Note: the discontinuity is probably due to delayed reporting over the autumn Bank Holiday.

Of these, the Coronavirus Dashboard reports that there have been 2 COVID (28) deaths in the Malvern Hills District in the last 7 days.

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths have risen to 8%.

No official explanation has been given for the death rate now being higher than might be expected from the number of daily cases.

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 27th August 2021 (week 34 of 2021) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table

Districts of Worcs	Deaths 2020	Deaths 2021	Week 34	Population
Bromsgrove	164	107	0	98,529
Malvern Hills	61	83	0	77,545
Redditch	108	89	0	85,317
Worcester	87	123	2	103,542
Wychavon	157	126	1	126,240
Wyre Forest	171	115	3	100,957
TOTAL	748	643	6	592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 27th August 2021

In week 34 there were no COVID deaths in the Malvern Hills, but elsewhere in Worcestershire there were 6, half the week before: 2 deaths in hospital in Worcester; 1 death in a care home in Wychavon; 1 death in a care home plus 2 in hospital in Wyre Forest (Kidderminster).

In England and Wales 665 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 27th August, 96 more than the week before. Of these 72 were in a care home, 52 at home, 4 in a hospice, 530 in hospital and 7 elsewhere.

Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.

The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

NHS England figures

The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 10th September 2021.

Worcestershire	Cumulative deaths	Past week
Acute hospitals	836	2
Care hospitals	63	0
TOTAL	899	2

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Note: Statistics can also be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (unchanged)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st June 2021 to 15th August 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, the death rate rose to 90 deaths per day.

Age band	Number of deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	7	0.3
20 - 39	67	3
40 - 59	300	14
60 - 79	862	42
80+	834	40

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band

So far the government has not provided a quantitative analysis by vaccination status, but one might expect the majority of deaths to be of the vaccine hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, and those that are immuno-compromised.

Those aged 60+ years now account for about 82% of deaths compared to 92% last year but remember that, due to vaccination, the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

The infection rate in England is currently about 330 in 100,000 per week so even if this continued all year the chance of catching COVID would be no more than 1 in 7.

Some weeks ago the probability of dying of COVID had been about 1 in 500 of those that tested COVID positive (see below) and as most deaths are amongst the elderly the chance of fully vaccinated Seniors dying of COVID could be about 1 in 1,000 of those infected, and the probability of dying of COVID in any one year no more than say 1 in 10,000. With the vaccines reducing in effectiveness as months go by the odds could worsen towards 1 in 1,000.

These odds are unlikely to worry fully vaccinated healthy and optimistic Seniors wanting to make the most of their remaining years.

On the other hand the risk-averse might be cautious bearing in mind that the vaccines do not work for about one person in twenty, for example the immuno-suppressed.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.

Hospital COVID cases (UK)	Number	Change since last week
Patients currently in hospital	8,098	+557
Patients on ventilation	1,060	+ 22
Patients admitted daily	1,073	+ 88

Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 12th September 2021

NOTES

The number of COVID patients admitted to UK hospitals daily has now crept up to 1,000. Concerningly most of the recent rise has been in Scotland where hospitals are coming under pressure. People are wondering whether or not England will follow the Scottish trend.

The number of patients on ventilation is still 25% of the peak in January 2021 which seems rather high. An explanation is needed for this and the increasing death rate.

As a guide from observing peaks in the charts some weeks ago it looked as though roughly:-

1 in 50 of new of cases are hospitalised 8 days after testing positive.
1 in 500 of new cases die on average 20 days after being tested positive.

These ratios depend on the percentage of infected individuals coming forward to be tested, the proportion of young people in the mix, and the effectiveness of the vaccines all of which will vary over time. Recent data suggests more pessimistic ratios of 1:35 and 1:350. On 13th September the ONS plans to publish an analysis of deaths by vaccination status for the period 1st Jan - 2nd July 2021 which may shed light on how well the vaccines are protecting us.

Worcestershire hospital beds

Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity

An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

There are now 39 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 3 are ventilated beds; roughly 15% of the peak experienced last January. Five more beds than last week.

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 19th September) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 250,000 towards 7,500,000 while the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases could flat-line at no more than 36,000.

In Worcestershire about 1,600 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 150 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 975 towards 135,200 during the 7 days ending 19th September 2021, with the average daily death rate flat-lining at about 140 deaths per day.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.3% death rate, the 1,634 new cases this week ought to translate to about 6 COVID deaths per week towards the end of September.

Nicola Sturgeon may very soon be forced to impose local restrictions if the pressure on Scottish hospitals worsens.

Longer term outlook

Cases are rising in Scotland and Wales, but contrary to expectations cases in England fell last week so it's impossible to predict what happens next.

Figures from University College London suggest cases could soon begin to fall.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths can be expected to follow daily cases very roughly in the ratio:

Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.

Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, continuing for 3 months or more.

Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.

UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases reported by PHE..

Advice for Seniors

COVID risk medium Recently there have been no more than 12 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE; see our annex and riskometer opposite.

Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.

Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)

Like Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.

Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:

wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you can, keep doors and windows open if you are indoors;
minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated in order of prevalence are said to be runny nose (75%), headache (73%), sneezing (67%), sore throat (53%), and loss of smell (51%);
avoid indoor settings, crowds, mass events, and areas where the infection rate is likely to be high;
respect others and give them space.

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

Annex to 12th September update

Commentary

Over the last 6 weeks daily cases and hospitalisations have not increased much in Worcestershire. COVID deaths whilst following a random pattern are low.

The government could make a decision about booster shots and vaccination of those aged 12 - 15 years next week.

On Thursday Scottish MPs voted to mandate vaccine passports for entry to nightclubs from next month. Daily cases have been rising sharply in Scotland where Nicola Sturgeon says hospitals are coming under pressure. The factors driving the rise are unclear.

See BBC report Covid in Scotland: Health boards 'under pressure'

Someone suggested on the radio that 25% of passengers on London buses and the Tube were not wearing masks.

On Friday the New Scientist reported Astrazeneca and Pfizer vaccines had been approved by MHRA for booster jabs.

Click for New Scientist Covid-19 news: UK approves Pfizer and AstraZeneca booster shots

The Public Health England COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report for week 36 has statistics on the proportion of people catching COVID by age band and vaccination status.

Click for PHE COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report Week 36

The numbers are discussed in the Independent SAGE weekly briefing (see below).

On Sunday Sajid Javid said on Sky News that vaccine passports were still being considered. An hour later he said on the Andrew Marr show that vaccine passports would not be implemented in England.

The PM is to brief the nation on Tuesday 14th September about plans for managing COVID over the winter.

Weekly updates

Here are links to the weekly Zoe COVID Study, and Independent SAGE updates:-

Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 9th September update

Cases are rising in Scotland and Wales while remaining fairly level elsewhere. Hospitals in Scotland are coming under pressure and it will be interesting to see what politicians do should cases rise further.

The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 10th September discusses how the numbers have been changing and students returning to university.

The next link shows the slides, and the second the video

Click for latest numbers on COVID-19 in the UK, 10th September 2021

Click to watch Independent SAGE 10th September briefing

U3A

Malvern U3A groups are resuming. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.

Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are unlikely to be provided at present.

Overseas travel

Deleted - please refer to gov.uk and the BBC for advice.

List of vaccines

Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK. Plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in 2021 for booster jabs and vaccinating those aged 12 - 18 years.

COVID-19 vaccine	Doses ordered (million)	Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C	40+60+35	Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge	100	Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C	7+10	Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose	60+40 now zero, as contract cancelled	A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Delivery to start in second half of 2021.
Janssen, single dose	20	Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Novavax	60	A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials.
GSK Sanofi	60	Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expect approval end 2021.
Curevac	50	Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Present rate of new cases and risk

The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England is now 342 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is 310 and the Malvern Hills 217.

As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.

The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors without underlying conditions catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE. A member of the family had Long COVID and it was very debilitating.

The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.

About the UK COVID-19 final death toll

The UK is going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which could increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this may result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.

The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 134,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.

Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.

At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.

Click for YouTube video of Coronavirus: Health Committee questions Government Chief Scientific Adviser and NHS England 17 March 2020

On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.

So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.

Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether their border controls will stop the spread of the Delta variant.

With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.

A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.