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Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors

3rd October 2021

A GLIMMER OF LIGHT

Take care as virus still widespread

Chad Skip preamble and go to summary

Skip to advice

Skip to links at end

Skip to menu of archived pages

Preamble

We keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district.

This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT.

Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website:

https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus

How to get vaccinated

The most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs.

The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get your booster shot when the time comes.

First vaccinations can still be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment.

Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm

Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm

(AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available)

Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW

How to request a COVID test

In order to protect others it is important to book a test and self isolate if you feel unwell with COVID symptoms.

There are now two types of test you can get. The accurate PCR test involving a throat and nose swab which is sent to a laboratory for analysis and the Lateral Flow Device test.

Click for government guidance on types of tests

Getting a PCR test

Click the link below for information on how to get a free NHS PCR test if you think you may have Coronavirus:

https://www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-test

In case of difficulty you can try phoning the Coronavirus contact centre by dialing 119.

According to Google there is a 'drive through' COVID testing station at County Hall near the Countrywide Centre, and a 'walk through' at Pershore.

If you cannot get to these you can order a home test kit.

If you test COVID positive you should self-isolate for 10 days.

Getting a Lateral Flow Device test

Lateral Flow tests can now be taken at Great Malvern Library, Evans Pharmacy in Malvern Link, and Claremont Pharmacy in Barnards Green. This test is intended to screen those who show no symptoms and can either be pre-booked on-line or you may be able to walk-in at the library.

COVID Lateral Flow Device You can also collect home test kits, packaged as the COVID-19 Self-Test (Rapid Antigen Test) in boxes of 7 tests, from the library and most pharmacies such as Boots and Murrays in Church Street, Claremont House and Lloyds in Barnards Green, Murrays at Prospect View, Evans and Murrays in Malvern Link, and Boots and Morrisons on the Enigma Retail Park. (Lateral Flow Device shown on the right).

Click for NHS information on Rapid Lateral Flow Test sites and collection sites in Malvern

Hint: to see the list, click on 'filter' and then 'pick up sites for test kits' checkbox.

Click for WCC info about Lateral Flow Tests

In our opinion, many Seniors will find the home test kit difficult to use as you need to rub the tonsils or thereabouts with the swab-stick without touching the tongue, teeth, cheeks, gums or any other surface. Doing this standing in front of a mirror on your own without gagging while holding a torch in the other hand, won't be easy unless you have a steady hand and good eyesight.

If you test COVID positive you should take a more accurate PCR test to confirm the result, as false positives can occur.

In any event you should report the result at:

www.gov.uk/report-covid19-result

COVID LFD box

Home test kit obtained from Prospect View

About the COVID Symptom Study app (Zoe)

You can help others by downloading the COVID Symptom Study app onto your smart phone or Ipad and reporting how you feel either daily, or as you are able. Note there is no desktop PC version for Windows.

For further details click this link: https://covid19.joinzoe.com

The Zoe app, which is easy to use, allows you to report whether or not you are feeling well and if you have had a test for COVID. This helps Kings College London monitor the spread and symptoms of the disease and give advice to government. This is an important source of data as we progress through the EXIT wave.

If you have had a jab there are questions allowing you to enter the vaccine type and any side effects.

NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app (England)

Release of the NHS COVID-19 contact tracing app for Apple and Android smartphones was announced on 24th September 2020.

Click this link for NHS Coronavirus app information

If you have been close to someone who has tested COVID positive, your smart-phone will be pinged and you will be advised to self-isolate

From 16th August fully vaccinated individuals don't need to self-isolate. However if you are feeling poorly and get pinged it is recommended you take a COVID test, and self-isolate if the result is positive.

Bear in mind fully vaccinated individuals can still catch COVID and pass it on to others.

NHS app and Covid Pass

You will need the NHS app installed on your smartphone and be registered with the NHS in order to display your vaccination status, for example when travelling abroad.

Note: this is not the NHS COVID-19 app

If you don't have a smartphone you may be able to login from a PC to obtain a printed copy.

You can use your NHS login when signing in to report the result of Lateral Flow Device tests taken at home.

3rd October 2021

Summary

There is good news this week. Hospital admissions are now falling more quickly than expected, probably reflecting that many new cases are of unvaccinated school age children, few of whom fall seriously ill; while the daily death rate has begun to fall.

Nevertheless COVID-19 remains widespread so Seniors are advised to continue taking precautions to reduce the risk of catching the virus; such as regular hand-washing, wearing a face covering where recommended, and continuing with sensible distancing - be careful amongst unvaccinated schoolchildren who are quite likely to bring COVID-19 home, particularly from secondary school.

Click to view our advice

The Effective Reproduction Rate of the virus is just over one so that, were everybody to reduce contacts a little, daily cases should dip. Alternatively it's possible hospital admissions and the COVID daily death rate could start climbing again later in October as adults return to workplaces, students mingle, and more time is spent indoors as the weather deteriorates. Daily cases have been drifting up and down for many weeks and it could be another month or two before we begin to see a significant drop in the numbers.

Meanwhile, people are getting out more and life is very much back to normal in the rural Malvern Hills. Like us you may feel 'fireproof' after being fully vaccinated; but the vaccine is not a magic bullet so don't be too surprised if you or some of your friends become poorly. Fully vaccinated individuals can catch the Delta variant of COVID and pass it on to others. Thankfully most should not need treatment in hospital though sadly a minority particularly the elderly and frail with underlying conditions could die of COVID despite being fully vaccinated.

In Malvern, booster jabs have started being rolled out for the most elderly who received their second jab more than 6 months ago and we expect most of those aged 70+ years will have received their booster by Christmas, by which time everyone will be hoping the 'emergency' is over.

Don't forget to get your flu jab.

England has now moved to the COVID-19 Response Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 which sets out how the government plans to respond to COVID-19 during autumn and winter 2021 to 2022.

Click to view COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England

A local summary of COVID cases can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Note: use the arrow <> buttons at the bottom of the Dashboard screen to move between pages.

Click for Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 news

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Click to go to our annex/commentary

Vaccinations

You can see the percentage of people vaccinated by age group on the Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard

About 95% of the elderly population in the Malvern Hills has been fully vaccinated, compared to 64% of those aged 18 to 24 years. Most of those aged under 18 years are only eligible for a single dose and of those only 11% have been vaccinated, which has resulted in outbreaks in schools.

Two jabs are essential to protect adults from the Delta variant of COVID-19.

Adults aged 18+ can book a jab on-line without having to wait for a call from their GP surgery.

Click to book a Coronavirus vaccination - NHS (www.nhs.uk)

There is a mass vaccination centre at The Three Counties Showground where first vaccinations can be obtained without having to make an appointment.

Those aged 16 and 17 years are eligible to get a first jab without the need for parental consent and about half are said to have been vaccinated in the UK.

Sadly few children aged 12 - 15 years have been vaccinated and target dates have not been announced for providing a first dose to those aged 12 to 17 years.

The bar chart below shows the population of the UK by age band (1), extended to include 12 year olds, and the number of first (2) and second jabs (3) given, so that you can see overall progress of the vaccination programme in the UK.

COVID vaccination bar chart

Vaccinometer as of 3rd October 2021

The vaccination rate has slowed since the summer and you will see little change to last week's chart, so the situation is about as good as it's going to get. Total first jabs are reported 48,928,952 to the 3rd October while second jabs are reported 44,969,396.

Probably the stage has been reached where as many are now achieving future 'immunity' through infection as vaccination - particularly children, most of whom are likely to be infected in coming weeks and months, except those that have already had COVID.

The population of the UK aged 12+ is about 58,000,000 and if younger children are included the total is 66,000,000 so a significant percentage remains unvaccinated; those being the vaccine hesitant (sadly some of whom will die, as did a mother of 3 recently) and those aged under 16 years.

Achieving herd immunity is doubtful as a proportion of the fully vaccinated can catch the Delta variant of COVID-19 but vaccination is still important to protect as many people as possible from debilitating long term loss of smell and taste, Long COVID, serious illness, and death.

Click for NHS video warning young people of the dangers of the virus for the unvaccinated.

Vaccination statistics can be found on the Vaccination tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

Vaccinations Worldwide

A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.

Click for worldwide statistics

Despite the UK being in the vanguard of countries giving first doses to the elderly, the UK has slipped to 14th place, partly due to dithering over vaccination of those aged 12 - 17 years during the summer holidays.

Number of cases

During the last week the average rate of people testing COVID positive in the UK reported by PHE on the 'Coronavirus Dashboard' rose slightly from 34,032 to 34,572 after peaking at 35,044.

The ZOE COVID Study estimates 63,000 cases per day compared to 50,000 last week; much higher than the PHE figure.

The chart below shows broadly how the daily rate reported by PHE has varied since 1st September.

COVID daily new cases

UK daily confirmed COVID cases 1st September 2020 to 3rd October 2021

Zooming in, the next chart shows in more detail how daily UK cases have peaked in the last week.

Daily COVID cases to 2nd May 2021

UK daily new confirmed COVID cases 1st August to 3rd October 2021

During the last week the cumulative total of confirmed UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE rose by 236,450 to 7,900,680

In Worcestershire there have now been 59,768 confirmed cases of COVID-19 an increase of 2,283 on last week.

The next chart shows how daily cases have risen in Worcestershire.

COVID cases in Worcestershire

Daily cases in Worcestershire from 1st August to 3rd October 2021

The breakdown by Worcestershire Lower Tier Local Authorities (LTLA) is shown in the following table, together with comparisons for Herefordshire, a more sparsely populated county, and the city of Leicester.

Note: the cumulative cases are copied from the 'Cases by area' (whole pandemic) data set of the Coronavirus Dashboard. The weekly increase is the difference between this week and last week's total.

Districts of Worcs	Cases	Weekly increase	Population
Bromsgrove	11,805	+434	98,529
Malvern Hills	5,378	+211	77,545
Redditch	10,551	+507	85,317
Worcester	10,705	+195	103,542
Wychavon	11,256	+486	126,240
Wyre Forest	10,073	+450	100,957
TOTAL	59,768	+2,283	592,130
COMPARE WITH
County of Hereford	15,213	+1,173	195,000
Leicester (city of)	56,856	+1,086	400,000

Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 3rd October 2021

Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.

Interactive maps

At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country.

Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases

Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.

Recent weekly cases to 28th September are up: North Malvern 14; Malvern Link 10; Pickersleigh 19; Barnards Green 10; Malvern Wells and Priory 18; Callow End and Hanley 9; Upton and Welland 16.

Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.

Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)

The Zoe map shows pockets of infection are scattered across England with no clear pattern.

Number of deaths

Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.

PHE figures

Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 785 in the last week to 136,953 while the daily average has fallen from 138 to 112 deaths per day.

UK COVID death rate

COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 3rd October 2021

Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard

In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths contribute 7%.

ONS figures

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.

Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)

The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 17th September 2021 (week 37 of 2021) is shown below.

Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table

Districts of Worcs	Deaths 2020	Deaths 2021	Week 37	Population
Bromsgrove	164	113	2	98,529
Malvern Hills	61	87	2	77,545
Redditch	108	91	0	85,317
Worcester	87	125	1	103,542
Wychavon	157	130	1	126,240
Wyre Forest	171	118	0	100,957
TOTAL	748	664	6	592,130

Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 17th September 2021

In week 37 there was 1 COVID death in a care home and 1 in hospital in Bromsgrove; 2 deaths in hospital in the Malvern Hills; 1 death in hospital in Worcester; and 1 death in hospital in Wychavon.

In England and Wales 849 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 17th September, 2 less than the week before. Of these 81 were in a care home, 78 at home, 680 in hospital and 5 elsewhere.

Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.

The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.

NHS England figures

The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 1st October 2021.

Worcestershire	Cumulative deaths	Past week
Acute hospitals	850	3
Care hospitals	64	0
TOTAL	914	3

Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths

Note: Statistics can also be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.

Risk of COVID-19 death by age band (unchanged)

NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 15th September 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, particularly the elderly, the death rate rose to 143 deaths per day.

Age band	Number of deaths	% of deaths
0 - 19	9	0.3
20 - 39	79	2.3
40 - 59	443	13
60 - 79	1408	42
80+	1422	42

Current risk of COVID-19 death by age band

Those aged 60+ years now account for about 84% of deaths, not far from the figure of 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.

The majority of these deaths could be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. The overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.

Probably a significant number of these COVID deaths are now of the fully vaccinated.

Healthcare numbers

The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.

Hospital COVID cases (UK)	Number	Change since last week
Patients currently in hospital	6,733	- 391
Patients on ventilation	815	- 101
Patients admitted daily	755	- 22

Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 3rd October 2021

Worcestershire hospital beds

Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.

Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity

An easy to read summary can be found on the Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

Click to view Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard.

There are now 39 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 2 are ventilated beds; roughly 14% of the peak experienced last January and one more than last week.

Bed occupancy has remained fairly flat in recent weeks.

Click for Simple Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard

Forecast for the week ahead

Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 10th October) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 220,000 towards 8,120,000 while the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases could either flat-line at about 34,000 or dip slightly.

In Worcestershire about 2,000 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 200 cases in the Malvern Hills district.

We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 770 towards 137,700 during the 7 days ending 10th October 2021, with the average daily death rate flat-lining at about 110 deaths per day.

In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 2,283 new cases this week may translate to 5 COVID deaths per week towards the end of October.

Hospital admissions in England may either flat-line or rise a tad next week tracking daily cases.

Longer term outlook

Daily cases amongst adults in England are now showing signs of upturning, following cases in unvaccinated schoolchildren aged 10 - 14 years rising steeply following return to school; but as children develop resistance to infection from either vaccination or catching COVID, and adults receive booster jabs there should be a downturn in cases by Christmas.

Modelling figures from University College London suggest the 7-day average of daily deaths and the prevalence of infection will decline slowly reaching a minimum in December.

Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic

For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases are a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths were expected to follow daily cases roughly in the ratio:

Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.
Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE.
Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.
UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.

While a significant proportion of cases involve schoolchildren, most of whom will not fall seriously ill, these ratios will overestimate admissions and deaths.

Advice for Seniors (unchanged)

COVID risk medium Recently there have been no more than 12 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the risk of death for fully vaccinated Seniors to be fairly LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE; see our annex and riskometer opposite.

Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.

Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)

Like Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.

Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:

wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you can, keep doors and windows open if you are indoors;
avoid crowds and minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated in order of prevalence are said to be runny nose (75%), headache (73%), sneezing (67%), sore throat (53%), and loss of smell (51%);
respect others and give them space.

Notes:

1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.

2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.

Annex to 3rd October update

Commentary

Cases of COVID-19 in the UK have been spiralling in unvaccinated schoolchildren aged 10-14 years who are now beginning to infect their families causing an uptick in cases; but in comparison daily cases amongst fully vaccinated Seniors have remained low, which is good news.

Further good news is that daily hospital admissions and deaths have begun to fall - in recent days the 'gap' between daily cases, and hospital admissions and deaths, has been widening significantly probably due to those under 50 years, such as children and their parents, being less severely affected than the elderly. This glimmer of light possibly heralds a downturn once the firestorm in schools has burnt itself out and booster jabs have been given.

On Thursday the NHS invited one million more people for COVID booster jabs.

COVID jabs for 12-15s are being delivered by local school age immunisation services who are working closely with schools to identify all eligible children. It is said NHS staff have started vaccinating young people aged 12 to 15 at schools, but initial progress appears to be slow. The Vaccines' Minister needs to speed this up.

Note: on 16th September Maggie Throup MP for Erewash was appointed Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Vaccines & Public Health, following the moved of Nadhim Zahawi to Education.

On Friday it was announced Australia plans to admit fully vaccinated Australians and permanent residents to states where vaccination is above 80% from November.

Merck announced a new COVID drug Molnupiravir which is said to reduce hospitalisation by a half.

In Israel spiking cases have begun to fall following COVID booster jabs. Let's hope the same happens in the UK.

Weekly updates

Here are links to the weekly Zoe COVID Study, and Independent SAGE updates:-

Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 29th September video update

The Zoe COVID study believes those who had COVID before being fully vaccinated are better protected than those that didn't so for them delaying the booster shot could be beneficial.

Click to read Zoe COVID Study 30th September news

The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 1st October discusses in brief how the numbers have been changing and focuses on ventilation in schools.

Click to watch Independent SAGE 1st October video briefing

Independent SAGE is calling for more transparency around JCVI recommendations for childhood vaccination against COVID-19.

There are suggestions CO2 monitors can be used to assess whether adequate fresh air is entering classrooms with a possible action level of either 800 or 1,200 ppm. Possibly an Air Purifier in each classroom could filter out virus particles in the air and reduce COVID, colds and flu?

Click for HSE guidance on using CO2 monitors in workplaces

U3A (unchanged)

Malvern U3A groups have resumed. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.

Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are unlikely to be provided at present.

Overseas travel (unchanged)

The international travel traffic light system is being replaced in England with a single red list with effect from 4 October 2021.

Then, fully vaccinated individuals returning to the UK from other countries won't have to take a PCR test before departure and soon after will just have to take a Lateral Flow Test on arrival.

Click for BBC report: Amber list scrapped in overhaul of travel rules in England

List of vaccines

Here is the list of vaccines ordered by the UK. Plenty of vaccine is on order for delivery later in 2021 for booster jabs and vaccinating those aged 12 - 18 years.

COVID-19 vaccine	Doses ordered (million)	Status
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C	40+60+35	Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022.
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge	100	Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India.
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C	7+10	Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination.
Valneva, two dose	60+40 order cancelled	A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021.
Janssen, single dose	20	Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M.
Novavax	60	A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax is being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, awaiting approval. Should be available later this year. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) has been contracted to fill and package vials.
GSK Sanofi	60	Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; expect approval end 2021.
Curevac	50	Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine later in 2021

Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government

Present rate of new cases and risk

The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen to 340 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is now 380 and the Malvern Hills 248.

As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.

The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors without underlying conditions catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.

The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.

About the UK COVID-19 final death toll

The UK is probably going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which may increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this could result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.

The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 137,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.

Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.

At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.

Click for YouTube video of Coronavirus: Health Committee questions Government Chief Scientific Adviser and NHS England 17 March 2020

On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.

So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.

Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether their border controls will stop the spread of the Delta variant.

With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.

A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.