Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors17th October 2021 TAKE CARE AS VIRUS WIDESPREAD Skip preamble and go to summary Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus How to get vaccinatedThe most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs. The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get your booster shot when the time comes. First vaccinations can still be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment. Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm (AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available) Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 13,014 | +624 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 5,832 | +272 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 11,559 | +537 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 11,316 | +339 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 12,493 | +703 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 11,279 | +638 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 65,493 | +3,113 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 16,924 | +822 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 58,910 | +1,056 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 17th October 2021
The prevalence of COVID-19 remains high in Worcestershire and the direction of travel is up.
Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country.
High infection rates can now be found across much of England and Wales.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Recent weekly cases to 12th October are: North Malvern 35; Malvern Link 19; Pickersleigh 19; Barnards Green 14; Malvern Wells and Priory 23; Callow End and Hanley 22; Upton and Welland 16. It's a good job we are vaccinated.
This week North Malvern is the 'hottest' place in town.
Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.
Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)
The Zoe map shows pockets of high infection scattered across England.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 849 in the last week to 138,584 while the daily average increased slightly from 112 to 121 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 17th October 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Since England emerged from lockdown on 19th July about 10,000 people have died of COVID-19; mostly the elderly.
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths currently contribute about 7%.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 1st October 2021 (week 39 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 38 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 115 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 88 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 93 | 1 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 125 | 0 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 131 | 0 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 119 | 0 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 671 | 1 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 1st October 2021
In week 39 there was just 1 death in hospital in Redditch.
In England and Wales 779 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 1st October, 108 less than the week before. Of these 71 were in a care home, 80 at home, 620 in hospital and 2 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England to 15th October 2021.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 858 | 3 |
Care hospitals | 64 | 0 |
TOTAL | 921 | 3 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths
No deaths have been reported in the Malvern Hills in the last 7 days.
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 15th September 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, particularly the elderly, the death rate rose to 143 deaths per day.
Age band | Number of deaths | % of deaths |
0 - 19 | 9 | 0.3 |
20 - 39 | 79 | 2.3 |
40 - 59 | 443 | 13 |
60 - 79 | 1408 | 42 |
80+ | 1422 | 42 |
Current risk of COVID-19 death by age band
Those aged 60+ years now account for about 84% of deaths, not far from the figure of 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.
The majority of these deaths could be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. Pregnant mothers, the overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.
Probably a significant number of these COVID deaths are now of the fully vaccinated.
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital COVID cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 7,086 | +323 |
Patients on ventilation | 783 | -25 |
Patients admitted daily | 915 | +98 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 17th October 2021
We expect daily hospital admissions to rise towards1,050 next week following increasing daily cases - roughly 25% of that at the peak of the epidemic last January.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
A summary can be found on the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard which reports on 12th October there were 32 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 4 were ventilated beds; roughly 12% of the peak experienced last January.
Between 6th and 10th October 27 patients went into hospital with coronavirus.
Note: Healthcare statistics can be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.
Click to view Worcester healthcare figures
Alternatively,
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 24th October) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 300,000 towards 8,750,000 with the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases hovering around 43,000.
In Worcestershire about 3,000 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 250 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 850 towards 139,440 during the 7 days ending 24th October 2021, with the average daily death rate flat-lining at about 120 deaths per day, rising to 130 deaths per day by the end of the week after that.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 3,113 new cases this week may translate to 6 COVID deaths per week by the middle of November.
Hospital admissions in England could rise to 1,050 per day by the end of next week following the trend in daily cases. Don't be surprised if Worcestershire hospital bed occupancy starts rising.
Daily cases amongst adults in England have been rising following a steep increase in cases in unvaccinated schoolchildren but we expect a downturn in cases by Christmas as the resistance to infection of the school population rises, either due to vaccination or catching COVID, and the elderly receive their booster jabs.
Modelling figures from University College London suggest the 7-day average of daily deaths and the prevalence of infection should decline slowly reaching a minimum in December.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases are a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths were expected to follow daily cases roughly in the ratio:
Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.
Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE.
Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.
UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.
While a significant proportion of cases involve schoolchildren, most of whom will not fall seriously ill, these ratios will overestimate admissions and deaths.
Recently
there have been no more than 6 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire
which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the
risk of death for fully vaccinated
Seniors to be
fairly
LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
Like Health Minister Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.
Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, ventilate by keeping doors and windows open as far as is practicable;
avoid crowds and minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated and children, in order of prevalence, are said to be runny nose (76%), headache (75%), sneezing (66%), sore throat (53%), and cough (51%), which are hard to distinguish from a common cold;
respect others and give them space.
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
A neighbour expressed the opinion that we were all likely to catch COVID eventually, and we notice people are not sanitising and wearing masks as much as they did, and people are much closer when they chat.
So it looks like people are not as worried as they were about catching the virus and that will probably remain the situation while hospital admissions and deaths remain relatively low and the NHS is not under pressure.
However with daily cases rising it's probably sensible to be relatively cautious for a few more weeks and for Seniors to make sure to get their booster jabs.
PHE records that 8.4 million have tested COVID positive and perhaps more than double that have caught the virus. Between now and new year another 3 million are likely to test COVID positive and perhaps an equal number will not bother to get tested, which suggests roughly 23 million may have had COVID by the end of the year, or roughly one person in three.
On Tuesday a report by the House of Commons Health and Social Care and Science and Technology Committees was published entitled:
Coronavirus: lessons learned to date
which caused quite a stir in the media. Some concern was also expressed about the rising number of COVID cases, but this was soon overtaken by the ghastly murder of Conservative MP David Amess.
The usual charts showing vaccination take-up and COVID cases over time by age band can be found in the Zoe COVID Study weekly update below.
Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 14th October video update
Zoe estimated 70,000 daily cases of which one quarter or 18,000 are fully vaccinated. Cases in England then looked as though they might begin to level off, while cases in Scotland have been falling.
Covid hotspots mostly in the North of England and Midlands correlate with low levels of full vaccination eg Peterborough 59%, Leicester 59%, Birmingham 55%, Manchester 54%. In South London about 60% are fully vaccinated but less so in Luton and Newham. Ideally we should be looking to achieve 85% compared to 66% currently. Wales and Scotland are doing better.
Vaccinated individuals may be catching the virus because:
the effectiveness of the vaccines is waning
poor individual antibody response
someone coughed or sneezed over someone and gave them a big dose
new variants escaping vaccine
Catching COVID does not guarantee long term immunity - so best get your vaccine.
The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 15th October answered questions relating to the mental health of young people and Long COVID.
Suggested Long COVID could affect 1 child in 7.
Click to watch Independent SAGE 15th October video briefing
Click to read more about Independent SAGE on Twitter
Malvern U3A groups have resumed. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.
Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are being provided by some groups but not others.
From 24th October travellers arriving from abroad need only take a Lateral Flow Test.
Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca now held in reserve.
Valneva has been cancelled, and approval has not yet been sought for using Novavax in the EU and US although approval has been sought for use in third world countries.
For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed for the population of the UK, so it's possible the government will cancel orders for those vaccines marked in red which have been slow to come to market.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60+35 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 order cancelled |
A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 ? | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, but approval has not yet been sought in EU and US. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanofi | 60 ? | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible approval 2022. |
Curevac | 50 ? | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine, but disappointing trial results. Future uncertain. |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen to 410 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is now 497 and the Malvern Hills 290.
In the City of Leicester where cases were once very high the figure is 284.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors without underlying conditions catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.
The UK is probably going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which may increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this could result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.
The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 139,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether their border controls will stop the spread of the Delta variant.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England
Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview
COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 17th October 2021