Coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors24th October 2021 TAKE CARE AS VIRUS WIDESPREAD Skip preamble and go to summary Skip to menu of archived pages PreambleWe keep an eye on the published government figures and monitor the media to asses the level of risk for Seniors in the Malvern Hills district. This page is normally updated every Sunday between 1800 and 2400 hours GMT. Information about Coronavirus can be found on the NHS website: https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus How to get vaccinatedThe most important thing people can do now is get vaccinated. Most Seniors should have been double jabbed by now, but if not get your vaccine, and encourage your friends and loved ones to get theirs. The effectiveness of the vaccines falls over time so get your booster shot when the time comes. First vaccinations can still be obtained at the Three Counties Show Ground without an appointment. Monday to Friday 8.00am to 5.00pm Saturday 8.00am to 1.30pm (AstraZeneca and Moderna vaccinations available) Use Brown Gate entrance, postcode WR13 6NW
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Districts of Worcs | Cases | Weekly increase | Population |
Bromsgrove | 13,676 | +662 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 6,150 | +318 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 12,077 | +518 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 11,791 | +475 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 13,231 | +738 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 11,903 | +624 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 68,828 | +3,335 | 592,130 |
COMPARE WITH | |||
County of Hereford | 17,809 | +885 | 195,000 |
Leicester (city of) | 60,134 | +1,224 | 400,000 |
Cumulative cases reported by PHE in Worcestershire to 24th October 2021
The prevalence of COVID-19 remains high in Worcestershire with cases slightly up in some districts.
Note: the weekly increase is indicative; the seven day average by area, which varies day to day, is an alternative metric that can be found on the Coronavirus dashboard.
At the bottom of the Coronavirus Dashboard (daily update) page there is an Interactive Map which is coloured to show infection rates across the country.
High infection rates can now be found across much of England and Wales.
Click for Interactive Map of COVID cases
Note: the Interactive Map works on desktop PCs but it's possible you may encounter difficulties using a tablet or smartphone.
Recent weekly cases to 18th October are: North Malvern 45; Malvern Link 19; Pickersleigh 35; Barnards Green 18; Malvern Wells and Priory 34; Callow End and Hanley 26; Upton and Welland 33. It's a good job we are vaccinated.
Another map can be found on the Zoe COVID Study website indicating extrapolated cases based on reports from those using the Zoe app.
Click for People with COVID (estimated from the Zoe app)
The Zoe map shows pockets of high infection scattered across England and Wales. Rates in Scotland are a bit lower.
Statistics on COVID deaths are published by Public Health England, The Office of National Statistics, and NHS England.
Public Health England reports that the cumulative total of COVID (28) deaths in UK hospitals and care homes rose by 949 in the last week to 139,533 while the daily average rose slightly from 121 reaching a plateau of 136 deaths per day.
COVID-19 death rate 1st July to 24th October 2021
Click to view the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Since England emerged from lockdown on 19th July about 11,000 people have died of COVID-19; mostly the elderly.
In comparison averaged over recent years 1,700 people die daily from all causes, so COVID deaths currently contribute about 7%.
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) separately reports registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate. The ONS figures lag the PHE figures by 10 - 14 days and do not include Northern Ireland and Scotland.
Click for national ONS data on deaths (Excel spreadsheet)
The ONS figures are broken down by District providing a glimpse of where deaths are occurring. The provisional cumulative total of COVID related deaths in Worcestershire reported by the ONS up to 8th October 2021 (week 40 of 2021) is shown below.
Note: the numbers are from the ONS Death Registrations-Pivot table
Districts of Worcs | Deaths 2020 |
Deaths 2021 |
Week 40 | Population |
Bromsgrove | 164 | 115 | 0 | 98,529 |
Malvern Hills | 61 | 88 | 0 | 77,545 |
Redditch | 108 | 95 | 2 | 85,317 |
Worcester | 87 | 126 | 1 | 103,542 |
Wychavon | 157 | 134 | 3 | 126,240 |
Wyre Forest | 171 | 121 | 2 | 100,957 |
TOTAL | 748 | 679 | 8 | 592,130 |
Provisional cumulative COVID-19 deaths registered by ONS to 8th October 2021
In week 40 there was 1 death at home plus 1 death in hospital in Redditch; 1 death in a care home in Worcester; 3 deaths in hospital in Wychavon; and 2 deaths in hospital in Wyre Forest
In England and Wales 663 COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the week to 8th October, 116 less than the week before. Of these 68 were in a care home, 68 at home, 10 in a hospice, 511 in hospital and 6 elsewhere.
Note: summation of rows 9 to 339 of the ONS deaths Registrations-Pivot table.
The provisional UK COVID-19 death toll (as reported by PHE and ONS) for all weeks of the epidemic can be found on the Deaths tab of the Coronavirus Dashboard.
The table below shows latest COVID deaths in Worcestershire hospitals reported by NHS England on 22nd October 2021.
Worcestershire | Cumulative deaths | Past week |
Acute hospitals | 863 | 5 |
Care hospitals | 64 | 0 |
TOTAL | 927 | 5 |
Click for NHS COVID-19 total announced deaths
One COVID death was reported in the Malvern Hills on 21st October.
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
NHS England provides an analysis of COVID-19 deaths in hospital in England and Wales by age band. Shown below is a breakdown of deaths for the period 1st August 2021 to 20th October 2021 when, despite much of the population being protected by the vaccines, particularly the elderly, the death rate has risen to about 130 deaths per day.
Age band | Number of deaths | % of deaths |
0 - 19 | 17 | 0.3 |
20 - 39 | 116 | 2 |
40 - 59 | 708 | 12 |
60 - 79 | 2,470 | 42 |
80+ | 2,565 | 43 |
Relative risk of COVID-19 death by age band
Those aged 60+ years continue to account for about 85% of deaths, not far from the figure of 92% last year, but remember that due to vaccination the death rate as a proportion of new cases is five to ten times lower than in 2020.
The majority of these deaths could be of the vaccine-hesitant, those with underlying conditions such as Diabetes, the frail, and those that are immuno-compromised. Pregnant mothers, the overweight and deprived individuals with a poor diet are also said to be at increased risk.
Many COVID deaths are now rumoured to be of the fully vaccinated elderly.
Since the 1st August there have been 51 COVID deaths in Worcestershire which extrapolates to 229 deaths per year. If 85% were attributable to those aged 60+ that would be 195.
The population of Worcestershire is about 592,000 and if the age profile is the same as that of the UK then 147,000 could be aged 60+ years.
Hence the risk of death from COVID-19 per year might be estimated 147,000 divided by 195, or roughly 1 in 750 for Seniors aged 60+.
If you are worried by this risk, bear in mind the elderly are more likely to die of other causes, for example disease of the heart, cancer or a stroke.
The UK government Coronavirus Dashboard includes important information about healthcare statistics.
Hospital COVID cases (UK) | Number | Change since last week |
Patients currently in hospital | 8,238 | +1,152 |
Patients on ventilation | 892 | +109 |
Patients admitted daily | 1,080 | +165 |
Headline summary of patients in hospital as reported 24th October 2021
We expect daily hospital admissions to rise towards1,200 next week following increasing daily cases - roughly 30% of that at the peak of the epidemic last January.
Tabulated figures for bed occupancy in Worcestershire Acute and Care hospitals can be found on the NHS England website.
Click for NHS England COVID-19 Hospital bed Activity
A summary can be found on the UK government Coronavirus Dashboard which reports on 19th October there were 40 COVID-19 patients occupying Worcestershire Acute Hospital beds, of which 3 were ventilated beds; roughly 15% of the peak experienced last January.
Between 11th and 17th October 33 patients went into hospital with coronavirus.
Note: Healthcare statistics can be found on the Healthcare tab of the UK Coronavirus Dashboard. At the top of the page where it says Healthcare in United Kingdom, click the drop down arrow to select Area Type as NHS Trusts, and Area Name as Worcester Acute Hospitals.
Click to view Worcester healthcare figures
Alternatively,
Click for Summary of Malvern numbers on the Coronavirus dashboard
Trends suggest that during the next seven days (up to 31st October) the cumulative total of UK COVID-19 cases reported by PHE on the Coronavirus Dashboard could increase by 315,000 towards 9,090,000 with the 7 day rolling average of daily new cases hovering around 45,000.
In Worcestershire about 3,300 new cases of COVID-19 can be expected, and 300 cases in the Malvern Hills district.
We estimate the number of UK COVID (28) deaths will increase by about 1,000 towards 140,550 during the 7 days ending 31st October 2021, with the average daily death rate rising towards 150 deaths per day, possibly increasing to 175 deaths per day by the end of the week after that. These are 'baked in' deaths of those already infected which cannot be avoided.
In the county of Worcestershire, assuming a 0.2% death rate, the 3,335 new cases this week may translate to 7 COVID deaths per week by the middle of November.
Hospital admissions in England could rise towards 1,200 per day by the end of next week following the trend in daily cases, with beds occupied by COVID patients rising to 9,000.
Daily cases amongst adults in England have been rising following a steep increase in cases in unvaccinated schoolchildren. Half term and the announcement that 12 - 15 years olds can be vaccinated outside school should dampen the present rise and we hope for a downturn in cases by Christmas as the resistance to infection of the school population increases, either due to vaccination or catching COVID, and the elderly receive their booster jabs.
The new Delta Plus variant of the COVID-19 virus is said to be between 10 and 15% more transmissible and to counter this the government may be forced to implement PLAN B.
Modelling figures from University College London had suggested the 7-day average of daily deaths and the prevalence of infection should decline slowly reaching a minimum in December.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
For a fixed level of vaccination, daily cases are a signpost to whether daily hospital admissions and deaths are going to go up or down. Based on our heuristic 'rules of thumb' - hospital admissions, cases of Long COVID and deaths were expected to follow daily cases roughly in the ratio:
Hospital admissions 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by 8 days.
Long COVID 1:35 of daily cases reported by PHE.
Deaths 1:350 of daily cases reported by PHE, lagging by about 20 days.
UK Hospital bed occupancy - one quarter of daily cases, lagging by up to a month.
While a significant proportion of cases involve schoolchildren, most of whom will not fall seriously ill, these ratios will overestimate admissions and deaths.
Recently
there have been no more than 8 COVID related deaths per week in Worcestershire
which has a population of 600,000 so we judge the
risk of death for fully vaccinated
Seniors to be
fairly
LOW while the risk of Long COVID might be MODERATE;
see our annex and riskometer opposite.
Remember, if you are elderly, have not been vaccinated, and were to catch COVID there is a significant chance that you will either die or your long term health may be seriously damaged, so if you are able get both doses of your vaccine and your booster and continue to take care of yourself and those you love. Also encourage others to be vaccinated.
Click for our risk of death table (for those who have not been vaccinated)
Like Health Minister Sajid Javid, it is quite possible, despite a second jab, for Seniors to become ill with COVID-19; some might have mild symptoms like a common cold or hay fever, while others could feel very poorly, but few except the frail and vulnerable will need to be admitted to hospital.
Until daily cases fall markedly the simple safeguards to remember are to:
wash your HANDS thoroughly, using soap and hot water, for 20 seconds, including after handling deliveries to your home, to kill virus picked up from contaminated surfaces see note 1;
wear a FACE covering when unavoidably near other people for example when shopping, visiting hospital or the chemist, and using public transport;
SPACE at least 2 metres from people you don't feel safe with see note 2;
preferably socialise with friends and other households outdoors in the FRESH AIR else, if you are indoors, ventilate by keeping doors and windows open as far as is practicable;
avoid crowded indoor settings and minimise TIME near strangers;
look out for symptoms and self-isolate and book a test if you feel unwell; according to the Zoe COVID Study the top five symptoms amongst the fully vaccinated and children, in order of prevalence, are said to be runny nose (76%), headache (75%), sneezing (66%), sore throat (53%), and cough (51%), which are hard to distinguish from a common cold;
respect others and give them space.
Notes:
1) Wash your hands thoroughly before touching your face to avoid transferring virus from contaminated surfaces to your mouth, eyes and nose. If outdoors use an alcohol based hand gel.
2) Two metres is further than you think - roughly an arm and a walking stick away.
This week the media went into a frenzy about the rising number of daily cases and speculated when PLAN B would be brought into effect. Plan B involves mandating the wearing of face coverings in indoor settings, working from home where that is possible, and COVID passes for entry to crowded venues.
Independent SAGE also suggests air conditioning systems should be checked to ensure adequate intake of fresh air to prevent the build up of aerosols, and installation of HEPA air purifiers in poorly ventilated areas.
Publicans suggest that COVID passes are pointless as the fully vaccinated can catch COVID, but the vaccines do give a little protection from infection and it's likely the fully vaccinated will shed less virus and infect fewer people. Each layer of protection will help keep the virus under control.
The emerging Delta Plus variant of COVID-19 is said to be more infectious and so could spark a slow but exponential rise in daily cases causing the government to implement PLAN B.
Our friends have been getting booster jabs at GP surgeries but commentators are suggesting the NHS no longer has the volunteers to achieve the vaccination rates needed - we'll have to wait and see.
On Tuesday Prof Neil Ferguson called for boosters to be speeded up.
The government announced those aged 12 - 15 could now go to vaccination centres (previously the plan was only to give jabs at school).
There were reports of a new COVID-19 variant DELTA PLUS said to be 10 to 15% more transmissible.
The BBC reported COVID was rife in Romania where only one third of the population was vaccinated.
On Wednesday Sajid Javid held a Downing Street press conference. This was mostly about new drugs purchased by the government but which are unlikely to become available until next year. He said there was no need yet to implement Plan B. He announced the national vaccination booking system would be opened to those age 12 - 15 years, and 4 M booster jabs had already been given.
Click to watch Sajid Javid's press conference on 20th October
There was much discussion about rising COVID cases on Radio 5.
The BBC reported a huge rise in COVID cases in Cheltenham and Tewkesbury.
Morocco banned flights to the UK.
On Thursday there was more chat on the radio and TV about rising daily cases with the BMJ and other commentators calling for the implementation of Plan B.
It may be daily cases will plateau next week and then start falling in which case the clamour to implement Plan B could die down.
The usual charts showing vaccination take-up and COVID cases over time by age band can be found in the Zoe COVID Study and Independent SAGE weekly updates below.
Click to watch Tim Spector's Zoe COVID Study 20th October video update
The Independent SAGE weekly briefing of 22nd October started with an interesting 24 minute presentation by Prof Christina Pagel about how the numbers have been changing. This was followed by a lengthy discussion of EU coordination matters which you can probably ignore.
Click to watch Independent SAGE 22nd October video briefing
Click to read more about Independent SAGE on Twitter
Malvern U3A groups have resumed. Some groups are continuing to meet using Zoom while others are meeting in person.
Members are being asked not to attend meetings if feeling unwell. Names will be taken at meetings and could be passed to NHS Test and Trace if a member subsequently tests COVID positive. Refreshments are being provided by some groups but not others.
From 24th October travellers arriving from abroad need only take a Lateral Flow Test.
Here is the updated list of COVID-19 vaccines ordered by the UK. It looks as though the government has settled on Pfizer as first choice with Moderna second and Astrazeneca now held in reserve.
Valneva has been cancelled, and approval has not yet been sought for using Novavax in the EU and US although approval has been sought for use in third world countries.
For two doses plus boosters, only about 200M doses will be needed for the population of the UK, so it's possible the government will cancel orders for those vaccines marked in red which have been slow to come to market.
COVID-19 vaccine | Doses ordered (million) | Status |
Pfizer BioNTech, two dose, -70 deg C | 40+60+35 | Approved, deliveries continuing, made in Belgium (EU). An additional 60M doses have been ordered for booster shots for the most vulnerable in the autumn. A further 35M doses were ordered in August 2021 for delivery in 2022. |
Astrazeneca, two dose, fridge | 100 | Approved for those aged 30+ years; deliveries continuing. Batches made in UK, Belgium and India. |
Moderna, two dose, -20 deg C | 7+10 | Approved. First deliveries to Wales and Scotland 7th April 2021 then England 13th April; mainly for those aged under 50 years awaiting vaccination. |
Valneva, two dose | 60+40 order cancelled |
A jab from French company Valneva will be made in Livingston, West Lothian, Scotland. Order cancelled September 2021. Delivery had been expected to start in second half of 2021. |
Janssen, single dose | 20 | Approved, a jab from Belgian firm Janssen, owned by Johnson and Johnson; UK approval 28th May. Order reduced from 30 to 20M. |
Novavax | 60 ? | A jab manufactured by US firm Novavax being made in Stockton-on-Tees UK; phase III trials complete, but approval has not yet been sought in EU and US. Glaxo Smith Kline (GSK) contracted to fill and package vials. |
GSK Sanofi | 60 ? | Some delay due to adjusting the formula to give better protection to the elderly; possible approval 2022. |
Curevac | 50 ? | Contract placed with German company Feb 2021. Possible source of new variant vaccine, but disappointing trial results. Future uncertain. |
Table of vaccines ordered by the UK government
The average rate of infection per 100,000 population per week in England has risen to 483 while in comparison the figure for Worcestershire is now 560 and the Malvern Hills 379.
In the City of Leicester where cases were once very high the figure is 299.
As a yardstick we suggest a figure of below 10 can be considered LOW.
The probability of fully vaccinated Seniors, without underlying conditions, catching and dying from COVID-19 is now possibly somewhere in the range 1 in 1,000 to 1 in 10,000 per year so we judge the risk fairly LOW compared to the risk of dying from other causes. Perhaps as many as 3% to 5% of people who catch COVID suffer from Long COVID so that risk might be assessed MODERATE.
The risk of death from Coronavirus for unvaccinated children and healthy teenagers is said to be small so for them the risk is LOW.
The UK is probably going to have to live with COVID-19 and a background level of infection which may increase every winter as more time is spent indoors. Barring new variants, this could result in many thousands of COVID deaths per year, as with flu. So in that respect there can be no 'final' death toll.
The present 2020/2021 death toll will likely climb from 140,000 towards 145,000 by Christmas 2021 based on the PHE definition of deaths. If ONS figures are used the UK toll could be heading towards 200,000.
Worldwide, this pandemic is not played out and it could be a further 2 to 3 years before the 'dust' finally settles and third world countries are vaccinated. The PM has promised an independent inquiry in Spring 2022 to learn lessons for the future.
At the start of the epidemic on 17th March 2020 the Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Valance, questioned by the Health Select Committee, did not disagree with Jeremy Hunt's suggestion that a death toll of 20,000 might be a reasonable outcome.
On the other hand, Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College warned in some scenarios the death toll might be as high as 250,000; while we thought, in the very worst case assuming up to 1% of the UK population died the outcome might have been nearer 400,000 taking into account some build up of herd immunity.
So how well will the UK have done? When Jeremy Hunt and Sir Patrick Valance spoke there had been few deaths and they clearly underestimated what was to come. Professor Neil Ferguson was nearest the mark. A few might consider an outcome of about 145,000 deaths during 2020 and 2021 a fair result compared to a greater number of people dying in a very short space of time, more being permanently disabled by Long COVID, temporary collapse of the NHS and patients dying at home or queued in ambulances outside hospitals. You have only to look at the recent situation in India to imagine what could have happened.
Members of the Labour Party and others will no doubt say the UK has done poorly compared to the best performing countries such as New Zealand and Singapore where deaths have been much lower, not to mention the enormous expense of supporting those out of work and huge damage to the economy. Bear in mind the situation in New Zealand has not played out. NZ has been slow to vaccinate and it has yet to be seen whether their border controls will stop the spread of the Delta variant.
With hindsight, deaths might have been much lower if the second lockdown had been continued into December and January, but that would have meant cancelling Christmas, and who knows to what extent the public would have complied.
A member of the marketing team at US company 'My Bio Source' sent us a link to a History of Pandemics. Let's hope our brilliant scientists can continue to protect us from future threats.
Article about the effects of Coronavirus on the human body
How to get a test
https://www.nhs.uk/coronavirus
About joining the Zoe COVID Symptom Study:
UK government Coronavirus guidance
COVID-19 Response: Autumn and Winter Plan 2021 for England
Guidance on UK COVID-19 alert level methodology: an overview
COVID-19 Alert Level lowered to 3 on 10th May 2021
Guidance on tiers: what you need to know
Government postcode checker to find tier for other areas
UK government Coronavirus Dashboard
Coronavirus Dashboard Interactive Map
ONS data on deaths in England and Wales (Excel spreadsheet)
NHS England COVID-19 Daily Deaths
NHS England COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
NHS England vaccination statistics
Worcestershire Coronavirus Dashboard
Worcestershire COVID-19 Vaccinations Dashboard
HSA COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports
A glimpse of the worldwide vaccination situation can be found on the Our World in Data website.
Click for chart showing % vaccinated
A forecast of the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic can be found on a University College London (UCL) website.
Click for UCL Long-term forecasting of the COVID-19 epidemic
A projection of the future COVID-19 death toll and daily deaths can be found on The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation website.
Click for IHME projection of COVID-19 deaths
ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) Roundup
Worldometer summary of coronavirus cases worldwide
European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control info
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
World Health Organisation info
Centre for Disease Control (CDC)
American Association of Retired People (AARP)
Help:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/here2help
Worcestershire County Council COVID-19 information:
http://www.worcestershire.gov.uk/coronavirus
Here you will find a useful link,
'Website: Number of new cases by date in Worcestershire'
which displays interesting COVID charts and statistics for Worcestershire
Spanish Flu
Dr Jeff Kildea's commentary about the 1919 outbreak of Spanish Flu in Australia
Views of Martin McKee, Professor of European Public Health
Follow Martin McKee on Twitter
SAGE membership
Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE)
Scottish government:
Link to Scottish Government website
Link to Postcode checker for COVID restrictions by protection level in areas of Scotland
Welsh Government:
Guidance on COVID alert levels in Wales
The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own
Last updated 24th October 2021