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Observations on politics and world events:
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine
A wise person should probably steer clear of commenting on politics.
 Contents
Diary
Appendix: Background to the conflict
Summary of Links
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Go to go to Politics blog
Here is an occasional diary (or timeline) of events as they appear to
us.
Diary
Note: we have moved the preamble to the end as an
appendix and renamed it Background to the conflict.
 The
media reports Russia is now on the front foot so our 'Winometer' shows the
balance of power lies with
Russia.
The supply of munitions from North Korea, drones from Iran, continued
recruitment into the Russian army, the stepping up Russia's defense budget
and putting the economy on a war footing has made it possible for Russia to make
up its battlefield losses and
defeat Ukraine now that lethal aid from the US has faltered and the UAF is having
difficulty replacing heavy casualties.
The Ukraine-Russia War is likely to continue for at least another year, with
the prospect of Putin winning in 2025 if lethal aid from the USA is not
quickly stepped up.
12th April 2024 (day 779)
Stalled US aid for Ukraine
In the last fortnight here have been rumours that, following Easter, the US
House of Representatives might yet vote on the $60Bn US aid package for
Ukraine which has been stalled for 4 months by Republican Trump supporters.
UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron recently visited the US to stress the
importance of this aid and has had private discussions with his opposite number
Antony Blinken, and
Republican Presidential Candidate
Donald
Trump. Speaker of the House of Representatives,
Mike Johnson, who some say was elected using Russian money, refused to
see Cameron.
Today there are reports on Twitter of Japanese PM Fumio Kishida speaking in
the U.S. Congress. He is quoted as saying:
You believed that freedom is the oxygen of humanity.
The world needs the
United States to continue playing this pivotal role in the affairs of
nations. And yet, as we meet here today, I detect an undercurrent of
self-doubt among some Americans about what your role in the world should be!
This self-doubt is arising at a time when our world is at history's turning
point. The post-Cold War era is already behind us, and we are now at an
inflection point that will define the next stage of human history.
The
international order that the U.S. worked for generations to build is facing
new challenges, challenges from those with values and principles very
different from ours.
Freedom and democracy are currently under threat around
the globe
This is yet another wake up call for dozing US politicians.
Things are not much better on the Democratic side with Joe Biden's officials
calling for attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure to stop. For example
see interview with
Celeste Wallander Assistant Secretary for Defence.
Click for NEXTA post on Twitter concerning Dr Wallander
Russia targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure
Meanwhile Russia continues to pound Ukraine's energy infrastructure using
drones and ballistic missiles causing immense damage. Yesterday Russia
destroyed the major coal fired power station at Trypliska (Trypillya),
located 45 Km south of Kiev on the banks of the Dnipro river.
Click for BBC report: Key power plant near Kyiv destroyed by Russian strikes
Shortage of air defence
For many weeks Ukraine has claimed to be running low on air defence
artillery as evidenced by an increasing number of drones and missiles getting through, and the appearance of
Russian ground attack jets flying over the front-line.
Yesterday former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt
made a passionate speech in the European Parliament calling for 7 Patriot
systems to be sent immediately to Ukraine drawn from the 100 it's allies
allegedly hold.
Nations are still promising to send F-16 jets to Ukraine but there is
no evidence any have arrived.
Russian Military Objectives
Russia says it has replaced its battlefield losses and is estimated to have
470,000 soldiers in Ukraine so support from its allies is imperative if
Ukraine is to have any chance of holding the present front-line during 2024/25
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI)
considers prospects in an article published on 13th February 2024.
Cick for RUSI article: Russian Military Objectives and Capacity in Ukraine
Through 2024
Bar a miracle, there seems little prospect of Ukraine winning back much, if
any, of the territory Russian forces have occupied.
With the ground drying out, and flat terrain, Russian tanks and infantry
could make significant tactical advances in the east of Ukraine in coming
weeks.
5th April 2024 (day 772)
Today, Ukraine claimed to have destroyed 6 warplanes on the
ground using a swarm of drones
to attack the Russian military airfield at Morosozovsk near Rostov.
Click for BBC report: Six Russian planes destroyed by drones, says Kyiv
Posts on Twitter suggested a further 8 aircraft could have been damaged,
while there may have been other attacks on the Yeysk military airfield near
Krasnodar, and that at Engels near Saratov.
Yesterday David Cameron spoke to the BBC on Ukrainecast:-
Listen
to Ukrainecast on BBC Sounds
Unlike President Macron, he ruled out Western boots on the ground.
See BBC article - Lord Cameron rules out Western boots on the ground in
Ukraine
Ten days ago the BBC broadast a harrowing documentary about skirmishes in
woodland near Kupiansk in which Ukraine suffered a great number of
casualties.
Click to watch BBC report - Ukraine: Enemy in the Woods on Iplayer
30th March 2024 (day 766)
Taking stock
Looking back over the last month, the situation for Ukraine looks grave. Aid
from the USA dried up in December 2023 and, unlike Putin, European allies
have not edged their economies towards a war footing by significantly
increasing the production of munitions and weapon systems. Consequently Putin's ground forces have
once again begun slowly advancing in Ukraine.
Russian tactics are said to include:
-
sending in small groups of expendable soldiers,
thereby causing Ukrainians to expose their positions;
-
flattening the Ukrainian defensive positions with
artillery and air launched glide bombs;
-
and finally, sending in experienced battle-hardened
troops to mop up.
Russia has advertised it has begun manufacturing terrorizing 3 tonne glide
bombs, but there are plenty of smaller ones Russia can more easily deploy.
Click
for Forbes article: Don’t Fear Russia’s 3-Ton Glide-Bomb. It’s Massive
Overkill When a 1-Ton Glide-Bomb Will Kill You Just Fine
In the last few days Russia has stepped up missile attacks on Ukraine's
energy infrastructure, including hydro electric power stations, causing
massive damage which could hobble Ukraine's defence industries.
Kremlin propaganda is saying Russia will eventually win and there have been
media reports Western leaders have already begun to consider what might happen
were Ukraine to lose.
Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, warns that if Russia were to succeed
in conquering Ukraine, war with NATO might follow - and
Europe is not prepared for that.
Click for BBC article - War a real threat and Europe not ready, warns
Poland's Tusk
Retired Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon suggests that Britain should prepare for war
with Russia.
Meanwhile, it seems to us, that many politicians are 'burying their heads in
the sand' and have not woken up to the threat.
It seems NATO has only committed to sending non-lethal aid
to Ukraine, so the sending of weapons is down to individual
nations through individual bilateral agreements with Ukraine.
The fielding of
F-16 jets, longer range missiles such as
ATACMS and
Taurus, and the introduction of conscription might influence the situation,
but one wonders whether this will come too late. What Ukraine needs
right now is delivery of weapons, not vague promises of support or
dollars.
Dithering by Western politicians has given Putin a head start and unless
they wake up to the threat and act swiftly, both by sending weapons from
current stock-piles and increasing production of munitions, it will be
increasingly difficult to bring Putin's military adventure to a halt.
24th March 2024 (day 760)
It is reported that Ukraine has attacked Sevastopol with
Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles damaging two Russian
Ropucha-class landing ships, the Yamal and Azov, and a naval
Communication
Centre.
Click for BBC report - Two Russian landing ships hit off Crimea, officials
say
There were later rumours that the Russian SIGINT
intelligence collection ship Ivan Khurs might also have
been damaged.
Phillips P OBrien publishes an update on where he thinks things stand; well
worth a read:-
Weekend Update #73: Strategic Airpower Becomes the Focus of the War
23rd March 2024 (day 759)
Weekend roundup
Our diary of events and trends continues, mostly based upon reports and
hearsay on Twitter.
The general theme in recent months has been the tailing off of US aid. There
could be three reasons for this:
- the US administration has become focused on the war in Gaza;
- Republican presidential election tactics, orchestrated by Trump;
- the US administration doesn't want Ukraine to win preferring instead
a partition of the country in order to avoid a third World War.
Putin emboldened by his election win and taking advantage
of Ukraine's weakness caused by the 'dithering' of the US administration is
taking advantage of the situation. Russian forces are now creeping forward
all along the front. Putin has the advantage of numbers; his troops may not
be the best trained but there could be enough to overwhelm the Ukrainian
defenders.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has admitted Russia is at
war with Ukraine, suggesting it's the fault of the West.
Click for Reuters report - Kremlin, in change of language, says Russia is at
war due to West's role in Ukraine
Recently, Ukraine has been launching drone attacks on
Russian oil refineries which have been quite successful.
Edward Hunter Christie points to a Financial Times report
suggesting the US President wants these attacks suspended because a
reduction in oil production would cause the world price of oil to rise - and
that would be bad news for a sitting President in an election year.
https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1771100313514029192
Another post on Twitter suggests Biden and Scholz met in
2023 and came to a secret agreement that a stalemate leading to a ceasefire
and partition of Ukraine might be the 'least worst' outcome of the war.
Certainly, while declaring support for Ukraine, the US has never declared
that it wants Ukraine to win and what winning would mean.
https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1771182671319674973
In contrast to the 'dithering' by the US administration,
President Macron is attempting to build a coalition of those nations that
might be prepared to put boots on the ground in Ukraine; some worry this
would lead to escalation, even WWIII. Others suggest what
Ukraine needs is Taurus missiles from Germany to increase attacks
on logistic hubs, and
'ground-attack' aircraft to help troops break through Russian
defensive lines.
Yesterday it was reported that Russia had launched the
largest airstrike of the war comprising 150 cruise and
ballistic missiles, and Shahed drones. The Ukrainian defences seem to have
been
overwhelmed and considerable damage was caused to energy infrastructure,
including a hydro-electric power plant on the river Dnieper. In the aftermath
the northern city Kharkiv was
reported to have no power, water or Internet. Lviv to the west was also
attacked.
Yesterday there was a terrorist attack in a
Moscow concert hall in which gunmen killed at least 133 and injured
140. The Islamic State claims responsibility but Putin spins
that the attack was prompted by Ukraine.
Click for BBC report - Moscow attack: Putin says all four suspects arrested
after 133 killed at concert hall
Pundits are expecting Russia to continue its current
offensive during the Spring prior to launching an even larger
offensive in the Summer.
It will be interesting to see if President Biden's
proposed $60Bn military aid package for Ukraine ever gets approved.
21st March 2024 (day 757)
Vernal Equinox
The vernal equinox has been reached when days and nights are of equal
length. Daylight will increase in the northern hemisphere until the longest
day, known as the Summer Solstice, on 20th June.
General commentary
It's almost a month on from our last diary entry. Vladimir Putin has
engineered his election as President of Russia for a fifth term of six years
so is likely to pursue his aim of subjugating Ukraine with renewed vigour.
Putin is reported to have tasked Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to
create 2 new ground armies, with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions by the
end of 2024, which may require the conscription of a further 400,000 or so
men.
Shoigu says that a Dnieper river Flotilla has already been formed comprising
a division of marines and a brigade of patrol boats, the aim of which will
be to prevent Ukraine establishing a bridgehead and crossing the Dnieper in
force.
There has been further talk amongst European NATO allies about 'not ruling
out' putting boots on the ground in Ukraine. Analysts suggest Putin is
already preparing to counter any such threat.
Pundits suggest Putin may be bolstering his conventional forces in readiness
for a conventional war with NATO. To us, Politicians in the West appear slow
reacting to the changing threat.
The US administration while claiming to fully support Ukraine appears
impotent to act due to the stalling tactics of Trump and his crony Mike
Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Meanwhile European nations are clubbing together to supply drones, shells
etc to Ukraine during this dip in US support.
On the battlefield, Russian units have advanced 10 Km or so west of Avdiivka
with Ukrainian forces in contact near Berdchi, at Toneke, Pervomaiske and
Nevelske. RU forces claim to have captured the town of Oriivka. Russian
progress is reported to have slowed in recent days..
Kiev was the target of a barrage of Russian missiles last night.
Ukraine has been countering with drone strikes on Russian oil refineries.
The Russian Volunteer Corps fighting for Ukraine and hoping to dislodge
Putin has launched raids across the border into the Kursk and Belgorod
districts of Russia during the last week or so which will result in Russian
units being moved to strengthen border security. It is not clear how
effective these raids have been.
The US is currently looking an unreliable ally, and European nations seem to
be increasingly stepping up to fill the gap.
Battlefield observations
Some say the situation is becoming more and more like WWI with opposing
troops deployed behind entrenched positions.
Tanks are reported to be very vulnerable on the front-line; being easily
disabled and then vulnerable to destruction by shelling or munitions
dropped by drones.
Anything that moves is likely to be spotted by drones, which can then direct
fire onto the unfortunate.
The development of Drone Warfare has emerged as a major feature of
this war with the emphasis on many relatively cheap drones rather than a few
of the hugely expensive variety.
27th February 2024 (day 734)
Ukraine falling back
It feels like a critical juncture has been reached in the Ukraine Russia
war.
Having taken the centre of the city of Avdiivka, Russia is reported to have
occupied the villages of Sieverne and Stepove enclosing the 'horns of the
buffalo' around the western outskirts of the city.
Ukraine is said to be falling back to a line between Tenenke, Orlivka and
Berdychi, possibly before moving further back to a stronger defensive line
between Ocheretyne to the north, Yevhenivka, Kromyshivka and Karlivka to the
south; this would be a withdrawal of some 20 Km.
On Yahoo news numerous comments can be found about Ukraine retreating and
asking why should the US waste further money on Ukraine? It is not
clear whether this is what people are thinking, or it's Russian bots
scattering propaganda.
President Zelensky has suggested plans for last year's counter-offensive had
been leaked, in advance, to Moscow.
Summit in Paris
Yesterday French President Macron held a summit in Paris to discuss Ukraine.
A Sky News video of the news conference after the meeting can be found on
YouTube. The French newspaper Le Monde also carries a report.
Click
for video - French President Emmanuel Macron holds a news conference
following the Ukraine Summit
Click for Le Monde story - War in Ukraine: Macron doesn't rule out sending
Western troops on the ground, announces missile coalition
The Le Monde article includes this quote:-
A French presidential official, speaking anonymously, emphasized the
importance of countering any perception of disarray following Ukraine's
recent setbacks on the battlefield. 'We aim to send a resolute message to
Putin that he will not prevail in Ukraine,' the official asserted.
25th February 2024 (day 732)
Yesterday was the second anniversary of Russia's large scale invasion of
Ukraine; so the Ukraine Russia War enters into a third year, with Russia
reinforced and Ukraine
reporting a significant shortage of ammunition and personnel.
Many put this down to the Republican party holding up the $60 Bn aid package
proposed by US President Biden, and Chancellor Scholz withholding Taurus
cruise missiles.
Russian losses
MODUK Defence Intelligence reported on Twitter on 24th February:-
Russia originally deployed approximately 130 Bn Tactical Groups. This likely
included approx 1,300 tanks, over 5,000 Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs)
and APCs, and at least 100,000 personnel.
In two years conflict Russian losses match and in many cases surpass those
in the original force. Confirmed losses include over 2,700 tanks, and 5,000
IFVs and APCs. Russia's killed and wounded are likely approx 350,000.
Mobilisation, and recruitment, production and refurbishment of existing
stockpiles means that losses have been replaced. Russian forces in
Ukraine are now larger in number than at the start of the war.
Russia is now able to maintain attacks along the front line and pursue a
strategy of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
In comparison President Zelensky says 31,000 Ukrainians
have been killed, which probably means an additional 100,000 maimed and
wounded which Ukraine can ill afford.
Both sides have had more killed and wounded than
were in the original force.
Despite this, Russia is rumoured to have four times as
many personnel in Ukraine as at the start of the war.
Russia on the front foot
Russia, now having greater numbers of infantry and munitions, is said to be
on the front foot all along the front-line.
Ukraine has withdrawn from Avdiivka, further north Russia threatens Kupiansk
and Kharkiv, to the south Russian units have re-entered Robotyne and to the
west the small Ukrainian bridgehead on the east bank of the Dnipro near
Krynky is under threat; so the small Ukrainian gains of the Spring 2023
Campaign are being reversed.
Air power
Russia is doing less well in the air and at sea. During the period 17th to
23rd February 2024 Russia is reported to have lost ten fixed wing aircraft:-
6 X
SU-34
2 X
SU-35
1 X A-50
AWACS
1 X Il-22 Airborne Command Post
Ukraine is rumoured to have downed this second Russian A-50 AWACS to the
east of the Azov Sea using a modernised
S-200 missile similar to the vintage
Bristol Bloodhound which had been developed for the RAF in the 1950s.
Russia is reported to have only seven A-50s left in service.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine says it has downed second Russian A-50 spy
plane in weeks
One imagines any A-50 is a 'sitting duck' if it comes within the envelope of
a surface to air missile as such airframes are very slow to maneouvre; so these
long range surveillance aircraft may have to be deployed further to the east in future
where they will be less effective.
Ukrainian drones are rumoured to have hit the Novolipetsk steel plant in
Lipetsk, about 400 kilometers northeast of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv
causing a large fire.
There are whispers Ukraine could have another go at putting the Kerch bridge
out of action.
17th February 2024 (day 724)
General
Support from Ukraine's European allies continues, but sadly aid from the US
is still held up.
There are whispers Ukraine could have F16 jets in the air by summer 2024,
but it's by no means clear how they will be used and what benefit they will
be. Aircraft and helicopters are proving very vulnerable to the air defences
of both sides.
Ukraine reports shooting down two Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers and one
Su-35 fighter on the Eastern front this morning.
Pundits are still suggesting that the best that Ukraine can hope for in 2024
is to defend the current front-line. For example watch Dr Leon Hartwell's
discussion with General Ben Hodges and Keir Giles on Twitter (duration 1
hour):-
https://twitter.com/LeonHartwell/status/1758025492257517985
Else click link below to watch on YouTube:-
Russia-Ukraine Dialogues: battlefield dynamics and prospects for 2024
Dr Leon Hartwell seems to be warning that Putin has 'bet the house'
on winning in Ukraine and forecast military spending by Moscow far exceeds
that budgeted by Ukraine's allies.
It is perhaps small comfort that Ukraine has largely neutralised the Russian
Black Sea Fleet, with Unmanned Seaborne Vehicles (USV), enabling grain
exports to restart.
Death of Alexei Navalny
Sadly yesterday the Russian Prison Service announced the death of imprisoned
opposition leader
Alexei Navalny aged only 47 years. Many had wondered if Navalny might
eventually replace Putin, hoping that might lead to democracy in Russia and
withdrawal from Ukraine; no chance of that now.
Another route
towards democracy could be Putin's total defeat in Ukraine; which might
cause Russia's new leadership to reassess the country's role in the modern
world.
Withdrawal from Avdiivka
Overwhelming Russian numbers have forced Ukraine to withdraw from the city
of Avdiivka which has been contested for many months. A victory for Putin
who likes winning whatever the cost in Russian lives.
Click for Daily KOS report - Ukraine Invasion Day 724: Avdiivka withdrawal
has begun
10th February 2024 (day 717)
The fog of war
It's difficult to know what's going on, but it appears that Russia is making
gains in its attempt to capture Avdiivka, and is massing forces to
attack in the Kupiansk/Kremmina direction possibly with the hope of retaking
Karkhiv.
A Russian counter-attack towards Robotyne and Orikhiv is also thought to be
in the making.
Commentators on Twitter suggest Ukraine is running short on infantry and
ammunition which suggests the balance of power is shifting to Russia which
has a larger population and has put its workforce on a war footing.
Putin seems to be becoming more certain he is going to win.
US election
It's still uncertain whether the Republicans will vote for the large aid
package for Ukraine needed to keep Putin's forces at bay. Both candidates
for US President are old men. Some say Biden's faculties are waning, while
Trump facing court actions is accused of being a liar; this leaves one
wondering whether either candidate will proceed to the final ballot.
Putin must be rubbing his hands with glee at both America's inability to
field stronger candidates and Republicans in the House of Representatives
continuing to delay aid for Ukraine.
The present speaker of the House of Representatives is Mike Johnson. True or
not, there are allegations in the media that he has received campaign
contributions from sources linked to Russia.
United States Secretary of Defense
Lloyd Austin, aged 70 years, who has been a strong supporter of Ukraine is
suffering from bladder and prostate problems raising a question mark whether
he will be able to remain in post.
Ukraine replaces commander in chief
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has appointed
Oleksandr Syrsky, who has led Ukraine’s ground forces since 2019, as the
new head of Ukraine’s armed forces, replacing General
Valerii Zaluzhny.
Some say this is a mistake, but after two years in the role others say General Zaluzhny is due rest and
recuperation.
There are thousands of ordinary soldiers who need to be rotated and rested - and this
could be dependent on mobilising and training tens of thousands of new recruits.
Zelensky is said to be keen to retain people in the workforce to preserve
the economy rather than sending them out as cannon fodder.
Philip Ingram
Last Sunday, analyst and journalist Philip Ingram speaking on BBC Radio 5,
said that in his opinion the possibility of WWIII was more likely than in
past years and therefore governments should be developing plans for what to
if that happened. That seems to imply more should be spent on Defence.
At the end of WWII some say 40% of the UK economy was being spent on
defence, falling to about 10% in the 1970s, and a paltry 2% now, whereas
Putin has recently increased Russian spending to 6%.
With the UK election falling in the latter half of 2024, and people
clamouring for more money in their pockets, there is a danger the
British government will kick the can down the road leaving the UK in a weak
position.
Starlink
Russia is said to be fielding Elon Musk's Starlink terminals in Ukraine so
has probably found a way to purchase them from a third party possibly in the
Middle East.
Commentators suggest Elon Musk thinks the war must be brought to an end to
stop the killing and doesn't mind if Ukraine loses.
Tucker Carlson
American journalist and TV host Tucker Carlson has visited Moscow to
interview President Putin. Some see him as a mouthpiece for Putin.
The Third Battle of Kharkov (Donets campaign)
It was interesting to watch Narrow Escapes of WWII on the Yesterday TV
channel on 7th February 2024. This related how retreating German forces
manoeuvred to flank the stronger Soviet Red Army delivering a devastating
counter-punch in 1943.
The Russians were then fighting over flat terrain on
a line not far removed from the current
line of battle - from Belgorod in the north, through Kharkiv, Rostov-on-Don, down to the Black Sea
in the south.
This tactical victory was attributed to German commander Field Marshal Eric Von Manstein
aided by the Luftwaffe.
One might therefore wonder if Ukraine, with a cunning plan, could similarly
defeat the Russians. Attractive as this idea might be, improved surveillance
especially by drones makes it unlikely either side will catch the other
unawares, while Russian defences in depth make it extremely difficult for
Ukraine to recapture lost territory.
The sad fact is that at present Russia has more men and more ammunition.
1st February 2024 (day 708)
General
There appears to have been little change in the front line during January,
despite Russia's winter offensive costing of the order of 25,000 killed and
possibly triple that maimed and wounded. One wonders how much longer it will
be before those in power realise the enormous damage being caused to the
Russian economy, oust Putin, and bring this senseless war to an end.
Some Western pundits are suggesting 2024 could be a year of stalemate,
imagining Ukraine might just be in a position to launch an offensive in 2025
subject of course to the resumption of US aid. However with Putin already
ramping up the production of military equipment and Russia's arsenal being
replenished with munitions from Iran and North Korea that seems a
pipe-dream.
If rumours are true Putin wants to cement his gains and advance deeper into
eastern Ukraine. However it is not all going Russia's way.
Sinking of Russian Missile Corvette Ivanovets
Ukraine reports that last night the Russian Missile Corvette
Ivanovets was attacked by four Unmanned Surface Vehicles
(USV) otherwise known as Sea Drones and sunk in Donuzlav Bay on the west
coast of Crimea.
It appears the Ukrainian USVs managed to pass through the 200 metre wide
channel into the bay undetected, catching the crew unawares.
Click for BBC report Ukraine hits Russian missile boat Ivanovets in Black
Sea
Activities of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)
There have been reports of a flurry of recent attacks on Russian
installations and airfields in Crimea possibly involving air-launched
Storm-shadow and SCALP cruise missiles.
Other unexplained fires at gas terminals, electricity sub-stations, and
warehouses in Russia may have been caused by much smaller Ukrainian drones
or Special Forces.
Cheap drones are being increasingly used by both sides for tactical
reconnaissance and to attack infantry in trenches, tanks, APC, artillery and
command posts.
For example, see
BBC report - In Ukraine's river war, drones mean nowhere is safe
Politics and Financial Aid
The EU has now approved Euro 50 Bn EU aid to Ukraine over the next 4 years,
despite initial objections by Viktor Orban of Hungary.
US aid is still held up but Ukraine takes some comfort from rumours Donald
Trump has been doing less well in recent days.
24th January 2024 (day 700)
Russian Il-76 cargo plane downed
A Russian Il-76 cargo plane, hit by a missile, crashed near Belgorod.
Russia claims the aircraft was carrying 65 Ukrainian POW for a prisoner
exchange; the facts are unclear at the moment and perhaps will never be
known.
Click for BBC report - Russia risked lives in downed plane, Volodymyr
Zelensky says
15th January 2024 (day 691)
Ukraine claims to have shot down a Russian A-50 AWACS surveillance aircraft
over the sea of Azov, which crashed near occupied Berdyansk. An Il-22
Control Centre aircraft also suffered damage but landed safely.
Click for BBC article: Ukraine says it shot down Russian A-50 spy plane
Rishi Sunak says he will increase military funding for Ukraine next
financial year to £2.5 billion, supporting largest ever commitment of
drones. Hopefully other nations will follow.
Click for press release - PM in Kyiv: UK support will not falter
Military strikes by the US and UK at the weekend aimed at deterring Houthi
'terrorists' in Yemen from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea create
the risk of opening up another side-show diverting the media and possibly
munitions from the war in Ukraine.
Click for
BBC article: UK and US strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen are self-defence,
says Rishi Sunak
4th January 2024 (day 680)
So Putin's invasion of Ukraine, which was supposed to take 3 days, moves
into a third year. It appears Putin still hopes to win, backed by munitions
from Iran and North Korea, and an uptick in aid from China.
In the last few days, Russia is reported to have launched about 500 drones,
cruise and ballistic missiles at Ukraine. These are said to have been
launched in swarms from different directions in an attempt to overwhelm the
air defences. One wonders for how long the RuAF can keep up this rate of
fire and how long before the air defences run out of ammunition.
There have been rumours that few of the Leopard tanks delivered to Ukraine
remain in service due to maintenance issues, and that some UAF units have
had to fall back due to lack of ammunition.
Turkey, a member of NATO, has so far prevented entry of two British
minesweepers into the Black Sea to clear corridors for commercial shipping.
That's no surprise as a treaty bans warships, but one sometimes wonders which side Turkey is on.
Western leaders are being reminded by the media that aid for Ukraine needs
to be increased if Putin's Special Military Operation is to be stopped.
Very worryingly our politicians are giving no indication that they have
heard the message, let alone acted upon it.
Click to read other news from Daily KOS -
Ukraine Invasion Day 680: combat continues
30th December 2023 (day 675)
Largest air raid of the war
Yesterday in the early hours Russia launched the largest aerial bombardment
of the Ukraine war. In total there were 158, drones, cruise missiles and
ballistic missiles fired from land, sea, and air at major cities including
Liev, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Kiev. 114 missiles were said to have been shot
down with the debris and other missiles mostly hitting apartments, schools
and hospitals.
Click to read commentary by Phillips P OBrien on this and the sinking of the
Russian landing ship Novocherkassk:-
Weekend Update #61 The Two Attacks
Support for Ukraine
Commentators, such as Tim Marshall speaking on Radio 5 yesterday morning,
continue to point out that, whilst the West has a much stronger economy than
Russia, Ukraine can only win by the West steadily ramping up production of
armaments and munitions - and at the moment there is little evidence
that is happening.
26th December 2023 (day 671)
It is reported that missiles launched by Ukrainian aircraft destroyed the
Russian landing ship
Novocherkassk which was possibly carrying Iranian Shahed drones in the
port of Feodosiya on the eastern side of occupied Crimea.
Click for BBC report - Russia confirms damage to warship in Black Sea
5 days ago Ukrainian air defences were said to have brought down three
SU-24
Russian fighter-bomber aircraft in the Kherson direction.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine says it downed three Russian Su-34 warplanes
25th December 2023 (day 670)
Christmas Day
Ukraine moves the celebration of Christmas Day to 25th December; previously
it had been 7th January according to the Julian Calendar used by the
Orthodox church in Russia.
Click for BBC article - New Christmas date marks shift away from Russia
Clerics and King Charles remind us to be kind to others.
Sadly, Putin preaches the opposite of 'Peace and Goodwill to all Men'.
Capture of Mariynka
Russia announced the capture of the city of Mariynka where fighting had been
going on for months. The city has been totally destroyed by the fighting.
Mariynka lies about 30 Km east of the city of Donetsk.
24th December 2023 (day 669)
Scenarios
With the world in turmoil one sometimes wonders if WWIII has already started
in all but name.
In a YouTube video for 'The i Paper' retired Colonel Hamish de
Bretton-Gordon goes through the major developments in the conflict in 2023.
He warns of growing war-weariness in the West and gives his view on the
possible outcomes for the conflict in 2024. The video is worth watching,
here is the link:
'WW3
Is Not That Far Away' The War In Ukraine In 2023
In summary the postulated scenarios for 2024 are,
-
Continuing stalemate;
-
Ukraine, with timely support, retakes Crimea with
peace eventually being negotiated;
-
US support dwindles, Russia takes Ukraine and
threatens the Baltic states, triggering a European war.
While the West appears to dither, Putin has put the Russian economy
on a war footing and begun ramping up production of armaments. Therefore
NATO countries, most importantly the US, will have to catch up and overtake
by rapidly stepping up production of arms for Ukraine, in order for Putin to
be thwarted and a wider European war avoided.
Politicians are known for being slow to react so there is the possibility of
a wider European War starting in say 2025 or 2026; hopefully that risk is
small. More likely - perhaps the Russian people will becoming increasingly
disillusioned with Putin resulting in him being ousted towards the end of
2024.
Propaganda will likely play a huge role in the way things go.
As 2023 draws to a close let's hope Western politicians remain united,
provide strong leadership, and maintain the will to win in 2024.
20th December 2023 (day 665)
The influence of elections and progaganda
During the last 3 weeks or so the situation does not appear to have greatly
changed. Russia continues to press near Kupiansk, Bakhmut, Advdiivka and is
reported to have made small gains SW of Donetsk.
Further west, small groups of Ukrainian soldiers have crossed to the east
bank of the Dnieper river near Kherson but have not been
able to advance much further.
The weather is playing a part with fog, snow and mud impeding manouvre.
A slackening of deliveries of munitions from the west is said to have resulted in the
rationing of ammunition since September.
Republicans in the USA are blocking $ 60 Bn of aid to Ukraine. Every year at
this time there are arguments about budgets, but this year there is an extra
factor; Republicans don't want Biden to win the US presidential election in
2024.
Republicans may be engaging in short term political manouvering
turning a blind eye to security issues of national importance.
In the EU
€ 50 Bn aid to Ukraine is being blocked by Viktor Orban of Hungary; some
accuse him of being a supporter of Putin while others suggest he is an
opportunist attempting to squeeze as much money out of the EU as he can.
Click this link for Guardian Newspaper article:
Hungary blocks €50bn in EU aid for Ukraine hours after membership talks
approved
Also see this BBC article:
Ukraine war: Kyiv forced to cut military operations as foreign aid dries up
The world situation appears grim. For over two months journalists have
turned their attention away from Putin's invasion of Ukraine to the dreadful
situation in Gaza. Houthi rebels in Yemen backed by Iran are harassing
shipping approaching the Suez canal with drones and missiles, such that few
vessels are currently prepared to attempt passage through the Red Sea; while
China threatens to invade Taiwan.
Analyst Fiona Hill points to the Ukraine war being at a tipping point.
Click to read Fiona Hill's assessment:
We’ll Be at Each Others’ Throats’: Fiona Hill on What Happens If Putin Wins
Many pundits are saying Putin will win if the West tires of supporting Ukraine.
Putin is in a strong position. He has put Russia on a war footing, and his
re-election in 2024 is virtually guaranteed. Putin could be beginning to
think that the West is looking pretty
pathetic.
Western politicians are likely more concerned about keeping their individual
seats and parties in power than preserving the world
order.
So the big question as we go into 2024 is will the Western alliance remain solid and continue to face-down Putin
enabling Ukraine to win?
The propaganda war continues in parallel with battlefield activity. Putin's
people are sending out the message that Ukraine can't win which is being
amplified by parts of the Western media who paint the blackest picture.
Supporters of Ukraine, on the other hand, are arguing that Ukraine needs
more aid to get the job done, including Taurus cruise missiles from Germany
and many more ATACMS tube artillery from the US.
Some are saying Zelensky's popularity has waned somewhat, and that
conscription may be needed to bolster UAF numbers; similar things are
happening in Russia where mothers are saying on Telegram that Putin should
be sent to the front and die.
It will be the nation with the stronger will to win and logistics that
emerges victorious.
The outcome of the Ukraine war remains largely in the hands of NATO and
Western allies. Putin will be constantly asking himself does the West really have the will to win?
Click to read views of analyst Dara Massicot dated 18th December 2023.
The West’s Inaction Over Ukraine Risks Dangerous Conclusions in Moscow
Israel
Putin has sounded reasonably friendly towards Israel in the past, but some
pundits suggest he will be taking an anti Jewish stance, in order to cement
his relationship with Iran.
China
China appears to be taking a fairly neutral stance, but pundits are saying
if Putin gets away with invading Ukraine, that could give China the green
light to invade Taiwan.
25th November 2023 (day 640)
General
Decided to drop the heading 'Ukraine Spring Campaign' which has
petered out. The Russian defences
have largely held up and so for example south of Orikhiv the UAF has got
little further than Robotyne.
It feels as though Putin, despite heavy losses, is attempting to increase
the squeeze on Ukraine. In recent
weeks there have been numerous Russian attacks, mostly repelled by the UAF;
while it is reported last night a swarm of 75 Shahed drones (Iran's
version of the
V-1
Flying Bomb) were launched at Kiev - fortunately most were shot down by
the air defences.
Russia seems to be putting a lot of effort into taking Avdiivka presumably
to secure Donetsk and bolster Putin's election prospects
Bob Seely MP has published an interesting article on the Foreign Affairs
website describing the various means by which Russia is attempting to
conquer Ukraine.
Click to read: The Russian Way of War
Truckers' dispute
Polish truckers are blocking border crossings with Ukraine, leading to 2,000
or so vehicles being held up. Slovak truckers are threatening to come out in
sympathy, so hauliers are diverting lorries through Hungary. It is rumoured
the organisers of the dispute could have close links with Russia which makes
one wonder whether the KGB has a hand in this.
Click to read BBC story - Poland truck protests leave Ukrainian drivers
stranded
Possible destruction of coal mines
There is a report of Russia deliberately destroying and flooding a coal mine
at Krasnyi Kut to the west of Donetsk. Were that true, it suggests the
Russians may not be confident of a long stay.
Weather
Winter is increasingly setting in. Mud and snow will be reducing mobility
and making life very uncomfortable for all the combatants.
18th November 2023 (day 633)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 165)
Continuing stalemate
Three weeks on and once again there has been no major breakthrough on either
side.
With winter fast approaching we can conclude the Ukrainian Spring Campaign
is over, having gained little ground.
Pundits are suggesting the Ukrainians under-estimated the strength of the
Russian defences and were over-optimistic hoping the tired Russian troops
would take fright and run.
South of Orikhive Ukraine fought hard to capture Robotyne, but there the
offensive seems to have stalled with little chance now of Ukraine reaching
Tokmak by Christmas.
In the vicinity of Kherson, small numbers of UAF troops have managed to set
up a bridgehead on the Eastern ban of the Dnipro river where the Russians have
suffered heavy losses counter-attacking Krynky.
Possibly the Russians are weaker here after sending reinforcements to the
eastern front.
During October the Russians have been on the offensive all the way down the
eastern front from Kupiansk in the north to Bakhmut and Avdiivka further
south. Russia is said to have lost a lot of men and equipment for only small
gains.
Ukraine seems to have largely neutralised the Russian Naval fleet in the
Black Sea forcing it to move eastwards from Crimea to the Russian port of
Novorossiysk. Possibly the
ATESH partisan movement had some hand in this.
Situation finely balanced
Pundits suggest that despite the stalemate continuing for several months,
the situation is finely balanced. Russia has approximately four times the
population of Ukraine so more men to mobilise; Putin is probably still
expecting to win by continuing to put more men through the 'meat grinder'
until the West tires of supporting Ukraine.
Putting it another way Ukraine needs to kill 4 Russians for each man it
loses which can probably only be achieved by fighting a defensive battle -
and that points to an eventual cease-fire line roughly where things stand.
If Ukraine is to have any chance of pushing the Russians out of the Kherson
district and recapturing Crimea, by say the Summer of 2024, one assumes it
will need the West to up its supply of armaments considerably, both in terms
of facilitating close combat, and interdicting Russian Ground Lines Of
Communication, for example using F16s and ATACMS. That looks uncertain while
the US is diverting munitions and its attention to Israel.
With colder weather on the way it is going to be an uncomfortable winter for
exhausted soldiers on both sides. Ukraine is expecting Putin to launch
further attacks on the country's energy infrastructure this winter, so
civilians can also expect to suffer.
At the moment all that can be expected is more of the same.
28th October 2023 (day 612)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 144)
Stalemate
Some two weeks on, there appears to have been little change in the front
line and an increasing smell of STALEMATE in the air. Ukraine's Spring
campaign appears to have stalled, possibly not helped by a shortage of weaponry
from the West.
A small number of ATACMS longer range missiles armed with cluster
munitions were recently delivered to Ukraine, and have been used with great
success to attack airfields in Berydansk and Luhansk City damaging between 9
and 20 Russian helicopters and runway infrastructure; however
rumour has it there are not enough missiles to significantly alter the
outcome of the war.
Russia having more men and equipment has been counter-attacking along the
whole of the eastern front augmented by fixed wing aircraft and helicopters, particularly at
Adiivka. So far, Ukraine has been able largely to resist these
attacks with Russia losing a lot of men and armoured vehicles.
To counter these attacks Ukraine has had to use assets which could have
otherwise been better used in the main offensive south of Orikhiv.
There have been unsubstantiated rumours Putin may have suffered a heart
attack; possibly fake news. There are also rumours of widows and injured
soldiers returning to Russia increasingly expressing discontent at the war,
and of Russia executing retreating soldiers.
A Hamas delegation is alleged to have met in Moscow with the Deputy Minister
of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Bogdanov. Possibly Putin may
be thinking of stirring up trouble in the Middle East in order to slow the
flow of arms to Ukraine.
It seems both sides are tiring of this war in which case could both sides
eventually settle for a freezing of the present front line?
Tim White is posting an everyday account on Twitter of events in Ukraine.
For example see this link to his post for Day 612:-
https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1718168044034265331
11th October 2023 (day 595)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 127)
Events in Israel
The shocking attack by some 1,500 Hamas gunmen, in a scene which could have
come from the Australian film series
Mad Max,
is now said to have led to the massacre of at least 1,300 Israeli men, women and
children. For example see the report below about events in one Kibbutz.
Click for BBC report - Inside Kfar Aza where Hamas militants killed families
in their homes
This atrocity is a 9/11 moment that has put Israel on a war footing.
Consequently, for the time being, the media has relegated reports from
Ukraine to
the 'back page'.
Pundits suggest Iran may be trying to prevent closer links between Israel
and the Saudi government, while one wonders whether Putin is attempting to
divert attention from his war in Ukraine.
Yesterday, Russia's request to rejoin the UN Human Rights Council was
refused.
Click for BBC report - Russia failed in its attempt to rejoin the UN's human
rights council
7th October 2023 (day 591)
Israel
It's the 50th Annivesay of the
Yom
Kippur War.
Hamas terrorists in Gaza launch a well-planned large scale attack on civilian
settlements in Israel. The IDF is taken by surprise and is slow to respond.
260 music-lovers at the Supernova music festival are reported to have been
slaughtered and others massacred.
Click
for BBC video - How the Hamas attack on the Supernova festival in Israel
unfolded
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 123)
Ten days on and there seems to have been little change in the front line.
Russia is said to have been moving its reserves to counter weak spots and
intensifying mine laying efforts around Robotyne to slow any Ukrainian
advance.
Russia remains a formidable enemy. The war is like a game of chess and the current
position appears close to stalemate.
Pundits expect this to continue a long and tough fight.
In a recent broadcast President Zelensky said 'we must win this winter,
overcome all difficulties; the protection for all our people is crucial'.
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1710356518640517613
However, based on the present rate of advance, it seems unlikely that
Ukraine can win the war this winter - whatever 'winning' means. The sides
are too evenly matched and one assumes Ukraine is unlikely to make much
progress without a significant force advantage.
In the last 10 days the media has carried much speculation about cracks
appearing in the Western alliance, such as reducing support from Slovakia
and Poland, and US Congress failing to approve budget. Such speculation is what Putin
has been banking on; he thinks the West will blink first.
The Guardian carried an article by
Stephen Wertheim a Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace suggesting a compromise with
Putin.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/oct/05/biden-us-strategy-russia-ukraine-war
Negative speculation such as this fuels Russian propaganda that support for Ukraine is
waning.
In HIS broadcast President Zelensky thanked the following
nations for their continuing support.
Germany - negotiating the transfer of a further Patriot air defence battery.
France - unspecified.
Italy - new security package.
Spain - additional Hawk air defences.
UK - promoting safe export of food via the Black Sea.
Netherlands - support for energy systems.
War is a test of wills and logistics and the West has to maintain its
resolve if Ukraine is to win, recognising that Russian
propagandists will be doing all they can to sow seeds of doubt in the media
and amongst the
general public.
27th September 2023 (day 581)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 113)
It's two weeks since our last diary entry and little seems to have changed
suggesting both sides are fairly evenly matched. Ukraine is on the offensive
and, despite some pushback, Russia entrenched in defensive lines appears on
the back-foot. Both sides continue to slog it out with heavy casualties on
both sides.
Ukraine could reach Tokmak by Christmas, but that looks by no means
certain and it's possible, by moving its reserves, Russia will launch a
counter-offensive.
Western pundits are expecting the war to go on for at least another year,
while Russian General Shoigu is planning to carry the war into 2025 in order
to wear down the Ukrainians and achieve a Russian victory. Clearly Shoigu
thinks it unlikely the RuAF will be able to defeat Ukraine in 2024!
Western commentators are urging the US and western governments to maintain
support for Ukraine hoping that with ATACMS missiles, more tanks and F16s
the tide will increasingly turn in favour of Ukraine.
The media hints President Biden may have approved the delivery of ATACMS to
Ukraine but that has not been confirmed by the White House. These missiles
are very expensive and delivery of a few is unlikely to alter the direction
of the war.
Germany has still not offered to send Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
That might be because President Scholz is worried about upsetting Putin, but
it could be because there are doubts about the missiles 'operational
readiness'.
Drone wars
Yesterday BBC Newsnight carried a report by Mike Urban about Ukrainian
soldiers operating drones on the front-line.
Click
for BBC Newsnight YouTube video - Soldiers strap DIY bombs to commercial
drones
It appears commercial drones are playing a big part in this war and Russia
has a lot of them.
Attack on Russian navy HQ in Sevastopol
Last Friday there was a successful strike on the Headquarters of the Russian
Navy in Sevastopol using Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Ukraine claims the
Commander of the Black Sea fleet was killed, while Russia denies this.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine claims Sevastopol strike hit navy commanders
Ukraine claims to be developing a torpedo-like underwater drone named
Marichka.
One gets the impression Ukraine has largely managed to neutralise the
Russian Black Sea fleet. There is less talk of Russian warships harrying
grain shipments and the invasion of Odessa from the sea - but the Russian
navy remains capable of launching missiles at Ukrainian infrastructure.
Attack on ammunition warehouse
Yesterday loud explosions were heard in Russian-occupied Sorokyne also known
as
Krasnodon in Luhansk region leading to speculation a large ammunition
depot had been hit.
Winter on the way
With little more than 2 weeks to the onset of winter, any armoured vehicles
of either side venturing off road are soon going to get bogged down in the
mud.
The fighting effectiveness of soldiers hunkered down in cold waterlogged
trenches is likely to drop.
It remains to be seen whether or not Ukraine can take advantage of the
deteriorating weather.
The outcome of this conflict may well depend on the extent to which Ukraine
can stay ahead in the Drone War.
13th September 2023 (day 567)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 99)
Missiles and drones continued to be fired by both sides. The biggest news of
the day was the successful Ukrainian attack on ships in dry dock at
Sevastopol.
Attack on Russian naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea
Two Russian warships were badly damaged in a large scale missile attack on
the Russian occupied dockyard at Sevastopol:
The pre dawn attack is rumoured to have been by ten air launched Storm
Shadow cruise missiles, of which the Russians claim to have shot down seven,
and three unmanned surface vehicles all of which were said to have been
countered by the Russian defences.
Click for Sky News report - What do we know about Sevastopol strike?
The attack suggests that Putin can no longer consider Crimea a safe haven
for the Russian fleet. Things seem to be turning sour for the
Russians.
12th September 2023 (day 566)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 98)
Very little news has emerged about the situation in Ukraine over the last
two weeks.
Up in the north Ukraine seems to be holding off a large Russian force in the
vicinity of Svatove and Kupyansk; Ukraine claims to have made some small
gains around Bakhmut, whereas the main effort appears to be south of
Robotyne.
This is turning out to be a war primarily involving infantry, artillery and
most importantly drones.
The UAF is slowly fighting its way south through the Russian defences,
learning as it goes. It is reported to have reached Kopani
and the outskirts of Novoprokopovka, half way from Orikhiv
to Tokmak.
Ukrainian seaborne forces have recaptured the Petro Hodovalets and Ukraina
(Boyko) offshore oil platforms in the Black Sea upon which Russia had placed
surveillance assets.
Commentators are suggesting that there are now little more than 30 days to
go before the winter sets in, and cold and mud begin to hamper operations.
Pundits suggest Putin will once again target civilian infrastructure during the
winter hoping harsh conditions will reduce support for Zelensky's
government.
Putin will be quite pleased that over a period of three months Ukraine's
offensive has recaptured very little territory, and he may be planning his
own offensive hoping to strike back at Ukraine in 2024.
To this end there are rumours Putin is planning to mobilise another 400,000 soldiers,
while North Korean President Kim Jong Un is in Moscow
possibly to discuss the supply of ammunition in exchange for nuclear know-how.
The supply of Taurus cruise missiles from Germany, and ATACMS from
the USA, which Ukraine urgently needs to bolster longer range attacks on
Russian Lines of Supply, have still not been approved. Ukraine really needs
these ASAP while the Russians are on the back-foot.
The EU does not appear fully united in support for Ukraine. The President of
Hungary Viktor Orban seemingly sides with Putin, while Austria still buys
gas from Russia thereby helping prop up the Russian economy and war effort.
With Putin showing no sign of backing down, and the West being a little slow
to 'fully' back Ukraine, one wonders how and when this war is going to
end.
28th August 2023 (day 551)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 83)
Despite pessimistic claims that the Spring Offensive is making little
headway, things seem to be turning sour for the Russians.
South of Robotyne the Russian line appears to be weakening; elsewhere
command posts and ammunition dumps continue to be destroyed; small drones
continue to fly towards Moscow, and in recent days a missile site and radar
station in Crimea was wiped out and a swarm of drones attacked a Russian
airfield near Kursk.
Prighozin presumed dead
Four days ago a plane carrying Prighozin and other senior Wagner Group
commanders plunged to the ground and exploded in flames shortly after
leaving Moscow for St Petersburg.
There are rumours the plane was brought down by two Russian air defence
missiles, while others suggest there may have been a bomb on board.
Many think Putin ordered Prighozin's death in revenge for the Wagner Group's
march on Moscow.
Putin appears to be neutralising the Wagner Group by ordering them to
handover their heavy weapons, assassinating their leaders, and instructing
the mercenaries to swear allegiance to Moscow.
Russian lines of communication vulnerable
The media debate about whether Ukraine is making much progress in the Spring
campaign continues.
On a positive note some say as the UAF nears Tokmak more and more Russian
Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) will come within artillery range and
when that happens it will be all but over for the Russians.
Russian officers purged
Others are saying Putin's purge of Russian officers, following the aborted
Wagner Group march towards Moscow, leaves mostly 'desktop' commanders with
little battle experience.
Capture of Robotyne
Ukraine is reported to have captured Robotyne and is beginning to advance
towards Tokmak.
M26 cluster munitions and cardboard drones
There is a suggestion that M26 cluster rockets for HIMARS would speed the
Ukrainian advance. The US has a lot of these awaiting disposal, but
unexploded bomblets could present an unacceptable hazard to civilians after
the war; so doubtful President Biden would approve.
Flat packed cardboard drones supplied by Australia are being employed; these
only carry small payloads but are hard for the Russians to detect.
Peace negotiations not yet in sight
Meanwhile Putin probably thinks he can hold onto the remaining Ukrainian
territory that the Russian Armed Forces (RuAF) still occupies.
Putin could be removed were Ukraine to reach Tokmak before Christmas, but
would any new leader be willing to end Putin's Special Military Adventure?
Diplomats, business leaders, and people of goodwill on both sides need to
work hard in the background to influence Putin's successor and bring this
war which benefits no-one to a close.
18th August 2023 (day 541)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 73)
Little of significance seems to have happened in the last ten days as
Ukraine and Russia have continued to slog it out.
The concentrated thrust suggested by some observers has not materialised and Ukraine
is reported to be pressing forward with small groups of soldiers in order to
minimise loss of life.
In the north the Russians, aided by reinforcements, are attempting to
advance around Kremmina and Kupiansk.
In the south Ukraine keeps advancing, albeit slowly, around Robotyne
and south of Orikhiv.
In the west the UAF is slowly building up on the east bank of the Dnieper
river near the Anotovsky bridge and Kozachi
Laheri.
To the east the Russians seem to have largely delayed Ukraine advancing
around Bakhmut.
It's some 70 miles from Orikhiv to Melitopol so unless the Russian defences
crumble, which cannot totally be ruled out, it seems doubtful Ukraine will
be able to push the Russians out of Melitopol this year.
Meanwhile Putin is playing the long game and hoping the US public will eventually
tire of the US administration supporting Ukraine.
Some parts of the media report US politicians quibbling over approving further aid packages for
Ukraine, perhaps because funding of the Spring Offensive has only led to
limited gains. It's not clear whether this is fake news or an indication Putin's gamble
might yet pay off.
In the run up to the US presidential election in 2024, politicians will be
judging the public mood and as that seems to be increasingly split over
supporting Ukraine there is no certainty Ukraine will get all the aid it wants
to push the Russians out.
Pundits are saying
Ukraine really needs a big win in order to show the US public
that their
dollars are not being wasted.
8th August 2023 (day 531)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 63)
General
Russian missiles hit a hotel used by journalists in Pokrovsk
60 Km north west of the city of Donetsk. A second missile some time later
kills responders.
Russian forces are still defending the edges of Robotyne
and attempting to prevent Ukraine advancing south from Staromaiorske.
There is some fighting on the east bank of the Dnieper river around Kozachi
Laheri which at present appears no more than a diversion.
Overall, Russian forces are halting any significant advance by Ukraine.
However Ukraine will be hoping that attacks on Russian Lines Of
Communication will cause the Russian defences to weaken, enabling sections
to be overwhelmed before the weather deteriorates as winter approaches.
There are conflicting reports about whether or not Germany will supply
Taurus air launched cruise missiles to Ukraine. These are the German
equivalent of the Storm Shadow supplied by the UK and much needed to attack
the Russian rear.
Thirty one Abrams tanks are expected from the US in the Autumn.
6th August 2023 (day 529)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 61)
Russian missile attacks continue
Russia launched another wave of missile attacks. Targets are said to have
included Starokostiantyniv airfield in the west of Ukraine
and the Motor Sich plant in the south.
Attacks on Crimean Road bridges
Following the attack on the railway bridge at Chonghar last week Ukraine has
successfully targeted the road bridges. The principal M-18 HWY crossing at
Chongar was hit, as was a secondary road bridge at Henichesk. Ukraine is
clearly aiming to interrupt Russian Lines of Communication by separating
Crimea from mainland Ukraine.
5th August 2023 (day 528)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 60)
At sea
Two nights ago, Ukrainian Unmanned Surface Vessels badly damaged the Russian
roll-on roll-off logistics ship Olenegorsky Gornyak near
the Russian port of Novorossiysk, one of the largest ports
on the Black Sea. It will probably be out of action for the rest of the war.
The Russians were probably surprised that the ship was hit as Novorossiysk
lies about 400Km east of Sevastopol, supposedly beyond the reach of
Ukraine's military.
Last night sea drones slightly damaged the Russian oil tanker Sig
near the Kerch bridge putting its engine room out of action.
Ukraine is sending the Russians a message - if you hit us, expect us to hit
you.
Putin is a bully and Ukraine is standing up to him. What Putin needs is a
punch on the nose and pundits are beginning to say, in order to bring the
conflict more swiftly to an end, the West should allow its weapons to hit
military targets in Russia.
Calls for the supply of longer ranger missiles such as ATACMS from the US
and
Taurus from Germany continue.
Unlike France and the UK, Germany has so far refused to supply Taurus air
to ground missiles, which have a range of about 500 KM.
Peace talks
Forty nations, excluding Russia, are getting together to discuss how the war
between Russia and Ukraine can be brought to an end.
Click for Aljazeera article: Saudi Arabia kicks off Ukraine talks that
exclude Russia
2nd August 2023 (day 525)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 57)
General situation
Last Saturday the Chongar railway bridge, linking south Ukraine with Crimea,
was badly damaged which could significantly slow the flow of Russian
supplies by railway to the front-line.
One or more drones hit a ministry building in Moscow. Despite little damage
being caused, Zelensky seems to be signalling to the Russian population that
continuation of Putin's pointless war could increasingly hurt them.
However the majority of the Russian population seems to have been brainwashed to
support the motherland since birth. Younger people may get the message, but
for the time being the majority will probably shrug off such events.
Putin has already ordered that Russian factories give priority to
the war effort, and he is
now mobilising more troops by raising the conscription age from 28 to 30
years presumably to make up for roughly 200,000 either killed or injured.
Apparently, reservists aged up to 70 years are now liable to be called up.
Iran is continuing to deliver large quantities of drones, and General Shoigu has been shopping in North Korea.
So it looks as though Putin intends to hold onto the Ukrainian territory he
has captured at any cost; Putin gives the impression that he is
prepared to wage war for however many years it takes for the
West to decide supporting Ukraine is not worth the cost. The
question is - will the population continue to support Putin or could there be a
coup in the Kremlin?
There have recently been several arson attacks on recruiting offices in Crimea
suggesting discontent is building.
The Ukrainians are staggered at the density of mines laid by the Russians
and are no doubt reviewing their tactics. There are suggestions that this is
now going to be a 'slow burn' offensive with relentless attacks on Russian troop
concentrations and Lines of Communication (LOCs).
Attacks on Ukrainian ports and grain warehouses on the river Danube close to the
border of NATO countries continue. One wonders why more air defence is not
provided.
Poland is annoyed by sabre rattling by the Wagner Group in Belarus and is
keeping a watchful eye.
Is a turning point on the horizon?
Ukraine has managed a small advance southwards to Staromaiorske.
Reports suggest many armoured vehicle were lost and there was a lot of
bloodshed.
That's a first step but there are many more formidable Russian defences to
breach just in order to reach Tokmak, let alone Melitopol, so further losses could be huge,
unless a better plan of attack can be worked out.
30th July 2023 (day 522)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 54)
General situation
There appears to be a news blackout on the Ukrainian side, so pundits are
mostly reflecting hearsay from Russian social media.
The general consensus is that in recent days the Ukrainian
counter-offensive has stepped up a gear.
However an article in the Kyiv Post suggests the main thrust is yet to come.
Click for
Kyiv Post article - Ukraine's Deliberate Push to Secure Victory
The Spring Campaign continues with Ukraine continuing to
nibble away at Russian defences south of Orikhiv where fighting continues
around the village of Robotyne. From there it's another 40 Km or so to the
key town of Tokmak which the Russians can be expected to
'defend to the death'.
80 Km to the east, where Ukraine seems to be fighting on a fairly
broad front below Velyka Novosilka, the UAF has been able to advance south
capturing Staromaiorske. From there the UAF might attempt
to press further south down the Mokri Yaley river towards Staromlynivka.
Further north around Kreminna the situation appears to have reached
stalemate.
Recent assaults have been mostly by small groups of infantry, supported by
drones, as tanks have had little luck crossing Russian minefields.
There are reports of retreating Russians troops mining their trenches and
blowing them up as Ukrainian soldiers enter.
It's early days and if Ukraine is hoping to retake Melitopol and Mariupol
there is a long way to go and many defensive lines to cross.
Russian Minister of Defence General Shoigu has been in North Korea
presumably shopping for arms to prolong the war.
Russian missile attacks continue, one hit apartments and a security
services' building in Dnipro
Yesterday, a downed missile struck the Russian town of Taganrog which lies
about 60 Km west of Rostov and 90 Km east of Mariupol. Possibly the rocket
was meant for Rostov.
Today, there was a naval parade in St Petersburg. Worries that there might
be an attack by Ukraine proved groundless. However Ukraine did send two
drones to Moscow just to remind the population that Putin's Special Military
Operation could have consequences.
One gets the feeling that at last the balance of power may be beginning to
shift
towards Ukraine.
Putin has said there could be peace negotiations but not while the present
Ukrainian offensive is going on - possibly he is being increasingly pressured by African
and Chinese leaders to bring this pointless conflict to a close.
24th July 2023 (day 516)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 48)
We never thought the war would go on so long. There are reports that many
soldiers on both sides are sick of the fierce fighting resulting in many
killed and wounded.
More attacks on Ukraine's economy
Russia has stepped up attacks on Ukraine's ports and grain awaiting export.
Odessa has been attacked 7 nights in a row. On Sunday the Orthodox cathedral
in Odessa was hit and today it is reported Russia has attacked grain
facilities at the ports of Reni and Izmail on the opposite side of the
Danube to Romania (a member of NATO and the EU).
See Guardian newspaper report - Trying to make the world starve: Russian
drones destroy grain warehouses at Ukraine ports
Ukraine had set up for
Nibulon
to export grain through the
ports of Reni, Izmail and Ust-Danube should export via the Black Sea be
blocked.
Russia has prevented exports from Mikolaiv throughout its Special Military
Operation and was never part of the Grain Deal.
Svatove and Kreminna front
Russia is reported to have advanced on the Svatove Kreminna front.
See Wikipedia article - Battle of the Svatove–Kreminna line
Crimea
Ukraine launched a multipronged attack on an ammunition storage facility in
north Crimea rumoured to be storing
Onyx
anti ship missiles which have been used to attack Odessa.
Sky News roundup
Click for Sky News video - Ukraine war latest
20th July 2023 (day 512)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 44)
It sounds as though in the north Ukraine is on the defensive attempting to
stop Russian attempts to advance, while in the South Ukraine has advanced
just a little. So far, despite its best efforts, Ukraine has not achieved a
breakthrough.
The grain deal
The grain deal is said to be definitely off and Russia warns ships to avoid
the Black Sea after Thursday 20th July saying it will treat all ships
travelling to ports in Ukraine as potentially carrying military supplies.
Ukraine has countered by saying it will treat ships heading for Russia in a
similar manner.
For the time being we expect civilian shipping to be suspended due to
voiding of insurance policies, which will aggravate famine in Africa.
For three nights running Putin has launched missile attacks on the port of
Odessa destroying, for example, grain awaiting export.
It is rumoured in order to restore the deal Putin wants sanctions against
Russia lifted while he is manouvering to sell grain stolen from Ukraine by
wrecking Ukrainian exports.
Click for Sky News report - Russia 'playing on the insurance industry' by
threatening Black Sea cargo ships
19th July 2023 (day 511)
Wagner Group
A significant number of Wagner Group soldiers are said to have arrived at a
camp in Belarus near the railway junction at Asipovichy (otherwise
Osipochi).
Asipovichy is located about 80 KM SE of the capital Minsk and 200 Km north
of the Ukrainian border; a long way you might think. However the railway
connects to Minsk in the north, Mahilyow in the east, Baranavichy in the
west and Gomel (otherwise Homel) in the south. From Gomel it is 110 Km, or
one and a half hours by tank, to the Ukrainian city of Chernhihiv which had
been attacked and laid siege to by Putin at the start of the
invasion.
No doubt Ukraine will be keeping an eye on the activities of Lukashenko and
the Wagner Group.
Dragons Teeth
One assumes clever guys in Ukraine and the West are investigating ways to
get past those concrete obstacles known as Dragons' Teeth. They look thinly
spread and one wonders if tank laid ramps or bulldozers could be used to
bridge them.
For example watch this 1944 video:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRld768HDyc
Easy if the enemy is not around, but much more difficult under fire.
Minefields
The slow progress of Ukraine's Spring Offensive suggests that despite modern
equipment the dense minefields are proving difficult to defeat.
Either that or Ukraine is in need of a lot more mine clearing equipment?
Attack on training ground and munitions store in east Crimea
Ukraine is said to have launched a drone attack on a military training area
and ammunition store near Stary Krym in eastern Crimea causing large
explosions. One wonders how Ukraine reached 230Km beyond the front line?
Russia continues missile attacks
Meanwhile Russia continues missile attacks on Ukraine with a particularly
heavy attack on Odessa last night.
Defence white paper
The BBC reports Minister of Defence Ben Wallace saying the UK must learn
lessons from the war in Ukraine.
Click for
BBC report - Ukraine has 'tragically become a battle lab' for war technology
18th July 2023 (day 510)
Ben Wallace
It has been reported Ben Wallace has decided to step down as Defence
Secretary and will not stand as an MP at the next election. The US appears to
have vetoed his chance of becoming the next UN Secretary General, while his
parliamentary seat of Wyre and Preston North is to be abolished in
forthcoming boundary changes.
Another attack on Kerch bridge
Another attack on the Kerch bridge linking Russia with Crimea was reported
yesterday. It is thought Unmanned Surface Vehicles (USV) were exploded
under the bridge damaging the roadway on one side. The railway line was
undamaged.
Russia launched retaliatory missile strikes against Odessa and Mikolaiv.
Slow progress of Spring Campaign
An article in the Daily Kos suggests Ukraine currently lacks the ability to
punch through the Russian defences which suggests the present war of
attrition could grind on for months with only small gains being made.
Click to read Daily Kos Ukraine Update: Analysis from the front spotlights
Ukraine's challenges
13th July 2023 (day 505)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 37)
General
Maps suggest little change to the ground retaken by Ukraine in the last five
days.
Despite bloody fighting, the Spring Campaign seems only to have made a small
dent in the territory occupied by Russia due to Putin's immensely strong
fortifications. Both sides must be feeling the strain and one wonders who
will weaken first.
Click for MilitaryLand: Invasion Day 504 – Summary
France has said it will send its version of the British Storm Shadow cruise
missile, SCALP-EG, to Ukraine while the US continues to prevaricate over
sending longer range ATACMS missiles for HIMARS.
Trouble within Russia's military leadership
General Toskov deputy commander of the Russian 58th Army was killed by an
alleged Storm Shadow strike on a hotel based command centre in the port of
Berdyansk.
Click for BBC article: Russian general reported killed in attack on
Berdyansk hotel
His boss, General Popov, was sacked after complaining of poor support from
those higher up the chain of military command such as General Gerasimov.
Popov is concerned Russian soldiers are currently being decimated by
Ukrainian artillery due to lack of counter-battery assets.
Click for BBC article: Russian general fired after criticising army leaders
General Surovikin who led the Russian army's retreat from Kherson has not
been seen for some time. Rumour has it he may either have been sacked or
even possibly killed for supporting Prigozhin's Wagner Group march on Moscow
a few weeks ago.
Prigozhin himself, who it was thought had been exiled to Belarus, has been
reported in St Petersburg, and could have met Putin in Moscow.
Pundits are wondering whether Putin has found a new use for the Wagner Group
or had Prigozhin killed, while others suggest Wagner Group troops are
handing in their weapons and retiring to jobs in the rear.
There are suggestions that there may be infighting both inside the Russian
Military and Political leadership which could ultimately lead to the end of
the war and Putin being deposed; if so one wonders whether the new leader
will be better for, or worse for, world peace.
The situation regarding leadership matters remains obscure.
NATO summit
A NATO summit was held in Vilnius Lithuania 11th to 12th July 2023.
Western leaders seem to be taking the view that Ukraine cannot join NATO
while the war with Russia is going on, otherwise NATO could find itself at
war with Russia. This irritated President Zelensky and may give Putin some
comfort. However Joe Biden offered some reassurance by saying 'we will not waver' in support for Ukraine.
Click to read NATO: Vilnius Summit Communique
Within this somewhat vague document NATO welcomed efforts of all Allies and
partners engaged in providing support to Ukraine, and hinted that there
could be a way for Ukraine to join NATO - after the present conflict and
when the time is right!
8th July 2023 (day 500)
Ukraine Spring Campaign 2023 (day 32)
There has been no publicly declared date for the start of the Ukrainian
Spring Offensive, but we are taking 6th June (D day) as the nominal start so
it is now day 32.
Ukraine has advanced a little way north and south of Bakhmut, and southwards
from Orikhiv and around Velyka Novosilka, but progress has been slower than
many had hoped for, and Putin may be comforted by the fact that, on the face
of it, Russia's defences are holding up reasonably well.
Ukraine quickly learnt driving armoured vehicles into minefields is not a
good idea, and now seems to have returned to attacking Russian Command and
Control networks, lines of supply, and ammunition dumps, while they work out
what to do next.
Cluster munitions
The
US President has approved the supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine, citing
that shortage of munitions could otherwise bring Ukraine's Spring Campaign
to a halt. That, and the fact Russia's large airforce is largely undamaged, has triggered some
to say Ukraine is unlikely to regain much territory so the sooner peace negotiations
are started the better.
2nd July 2023 (day 494)
In the last couple of days, Russian drone attacks on Kiev have re-commenced.
An explosion
occurred near a military airfield in Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Russia, which
may be being used to launch Shahed drones towards Ukraine.
It is reported head on attacks by armoured vehicles attempting to cross
Russian minefields have been largely unsuccessful, and the war is currently
one of artillery and drones supporting infantry attempting to clear Russian
trenches.
Ukraine is pushing forward in a deliberate and methodical manner, and
fighting can be expected to be very bloody and take as long as it takes.
Prof Phillips P O'Brien provides an assessment of the current
situation in his Weekly Update #35 dated 2nd July 2023 which can be
found on the Substack website; it's worth a read.
Click to read weekly Update #35 dated 2nd July 2023
On 30th June 2023 Sky News Australia carried a heated discussion with host
Erin Molan speaking about the ongoing Russian-Ukraine conflict with former
Vladimir Putin advisor Sergei Markov, and Ukraine defence official Yuriy
Sak.
Click to watch Sky News video: Ex-Putin advisor and Ukraine defence chief go
head to head
1st July 2023 (day 493)
It feels as though Ukraine is slowly making some inroads into the Russian
defences, but for reasons of operational secrecy there is a veil over what
is happening.
There appear attempts by Ukraine to cross the Dnieper river and establish
bridgeheads in Kherson near the Anotovsky bridge, and near the Nova Kakhovka
dam on the east bank.
Meanwhile there is a much larger assault south of Velyka Novosilka,
where Ukraine has captured Rivnopil and is said to be on the heels of
retreating Russian soldiers.
Ukraine is said to have taken Berkhivka to the north of Bakhmut and
Klishchiivka to the south which suggests a pincer movement to encircle the
Russian troops occupying Bakhmut is likely.
Yesterday the Russians hit a primary school in the village of Serhiivka
killing two people including a teacher and injuring 6 others.
Three days ago the Russians launched a missile attack on Kramatorsk which
hit a busy pizza restaurant, popular with journalists, and an apartment
block. Twelve civilians are said to have been killed and about 60 injured.
The dead included fourteen-year-old twins Anna and Yuliia Aksenchenko who
were in the vicinity of the restaurant during the attack.
Click for BBC report - Kramatorsk: Russian missile strike hits restaurants
in Ukrainian city
Some Russian units have been seen leaving the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) leading to speculation Putin may be
planning to destroy sufficient of the plant to release radioactive fallout
over a wide area.
A date of 5th July has been floated.
IAEA has not voiced great concern, so let's hope this is gossip.
The US is considering providing cluster munitions to Ukraine, said General
Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Such weapons, though
used by Russia, are banned by the UK and could be a hazard to civilians.
There is a rumour some Wagner troops will be sent with Prigozhin to Belarus
where they could cause mischief. In response Ukraine is strengthening its
northern border.
Putin may be purging the military and civilian leadership of those whose
loyalty is in doubt following the largely unopposed Wagner Group march on
Moscow.
The question many will be asking is - will there eventually be a
collapse in the Russian will to fight?
One assumes, when push comes to shove, the conscript and convict elements of
Russian units will be reluctant to die for Putin and his illegal war in
Ukraine.
Meanwhile Russian tourists, planning to visit beaches in Crimea, complain of
long delays caused by searches for explosives before vehicles are allowed to
cross the Kerch bridge.
25th June 2023 (day 487)
Prigozhin's march on Moscow
Yesterday was a very exciting day for those of us listening to the 24 hour
news channels. Prigozhin leader of the Wagner Group and Putin's 'fixer' had
become disenchanted with a perceived lack of support from the Russian MOD
and an ultimatum that his mercenaries should sign up to become regular
soldiers. He had demanded that Minister of Defence Shoigu and General
Gerasimov be sacked and proposed a mutinous 'march' to Moscow to signal his
displeasure.
So it was that yesterday elements of the Wagner Group set out by road for
Moscow, occupying first the city of Rostov on Don including its military
headquarters, and then an airfield at Voronezh, where tactical nuclear
weapons are rumoured to be stored, encountering very little resistance.
The Kremlin appeared paralysed, and there was panic in Moscow.
There were rumours Putin's plane had landed at St Petersburg, and that
Lukashenko, president of Belarus had fled to Turkey, but nobody knew
where they really were.
Contractors dug trenches across the highway at Lipetsk to slow down the
Wagner force, and there was talk of blowing bridges to the south of Moscow.
By teatime the Wagner force was speeding up the M-4 highway only 125 miles
from the capital.
The police were not expected to oppose the battle hardened Wagner force and
there was some doubt whether the regular army had the appetite to fight.
Crisis averted
Then at approximately 1730 GMT it was announced Prigozhin had ordered the
Wagner columns to turn round.
Apparently Putin had spoken with Lukashenko who had phoned Prigozhin
suggesting a bloodbath was in nobody's interest, and Prigozhin must have
lost his nerve.
Terms of the deal
The Kremlin says that charges of treason against Prigozhin will be dropped
and that he will be exiled to Belarus. The Wagner Group would return to its
base with those not participating in the 'mutiny' being offered contracts
with the regular army; the remainder rejoining Wagner units abroad for
example in Africa and Syria.
What happens next
Pundits are saying it is too early so say how this 'mutiny' by the Wagner
Group will affect Putin's standing and the war in Ukraine.
Click for Al Jazeera article - ‘All bets are off’: An uncertain future after
Wagner mutiny
Click for Independent newspaper report - 24 hours of mutiny, mayhem and
panic on the streets of Moscow
23rd June 2023 (day 485)
Fierce fighting
It has been nearly three weeks since the initial ground combat phase of the
Ukrainian 2023 campaign commenced. Ukraine has had a go at the
Russians and been rewarded with a 'bloody nose'. Some pundits are saying the
Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have not performed as well as expected. However
they miss the point that the Russian defences are strong, and will not be
easily overcome.
Ukraine has been probing the Russian defences along a large front
extending from Kamianske on the edge of the Kakhovka resevoir in the west,
to Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka further east, and further north around
Bakhmut.
One might assume, given the chance, they would head for Tokmak, Melitopol
and Berdyansk. Russia on the other hand will no doubt move its forces to
counter the perceived threat; and so this 'game' of military chess will
likely play on for months with Ukraine hoping to get deliveries of Abrams
tanks, fighter jets, glide bombs and just possibly longer range ATACMs
missiles in the autumn.
In recent days Ukraine appears to have paused to take stock, having only
advanced a few kilometres. Meanwhile the UAF is continuing to hammer Russian
lines of communication and ammunition dumps.
Click for retired General Mick Ryan's assessment of the state of the
campaign on Twitter
Crimea
Ukraine is attempting with some success to stop Putin bringing munitions
into Ukraine from Crimea and, in the longer term, probably plans to lay
siege to Crimea by taking out the two road bridges carrying the M-17 and
M-18 highways to the north, and the Kerch bridge to the east.
Rykove
The railway station and warehouse complex in the city of Rykove in the
Kherson region just north of Crimea, which was reportedly being used to
store a large stockpile of munitions utilised by Russian Armed Forces (RuAF)
for the defense of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, appears to have
been totally destroyed by a Ukrainian cruise missile attack.
The railway line between Melitopol and Crimea is constantly being harassed.
Chonhar bridge
The Chonhar bridge in Crimea carrying the M-18 highway was reported
hit by one or more cruise missiles yesterday. One assumes the only other
road into Crimea from the north, the M-17 highway, will soon come under
attack.
Armyansk
The Russians are said to be building a defensive line north of Armyansk to
protect the Crimean peninsular. Ukraine would probably suffere severe
casualties attempting to cross into Crimera, so is more likely to lay siege
and starve the Russians out.
Cholera
There are rumours of the RUF being affected by cholera and typhoid outbreaks
following destruction of the Karkhova dam. The water supply to Crimea is
probably dwindling.
Kremmina
There are reports of the RuAF pressing forward attacks west of Kremmina in
an attempt to draw the UAF away from their offensive in the south.
Military airfield near Khmelnytskyi
Yesterday Russia pressed home an attack on a military airfield SW of Kiev
using 13 cruise missiles and a reconnaissance drone. Ukraine says all the
missiles were shot down.
Radio station destroyed
Partisans claim to have destroyed a cluster of R-161 military vehicles
providing HF radio communications.
Click for Twitter report
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Russian forces are said to have mined the cooling system of the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant.
While Russians occupies the plant Putin will see this as a valuable asset to
supply electricity to Russia and those regions he has occupied.
However there is concern that, if the Russians were in danger of being
pushed out of Ukraine, Putin could destroy the plant causing nuclear fallout
to be released over much of the northern hemisphere.
Putin is an old man with little to lose.
12th June 2023 (day 474)
Ukraine's 2023 Campaign
It is now commonly agreed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has started;
retired Australian General Mick Ryan suggests this should now be renamed the
2023 Offensive or Campaign.
There have been numerous reports of Ukrainian probing attacks, many halted
by Russian minefields and shelling.
As on D Day and at El Alamein, many casualties, and loss of Ukrainian armoured
vehicles is anticipated due to the strong defensive positions (or killing
zones) set up by the Russians.
There is hearsay that Ukraine has advanced south through Orikhiv heading for
the major railway hub of Tokmak, possibly hoping to eventually reach either Melitopol or the
port of Berdyansk.
Telegram channels are reporting that partisans have blown up a railway
bridge near the occupied village of Yakymivka cutting the line between
Melitopol and Crimea.
Others report Ukraine is pressing forward around Velyka Novosilka in West
Donetsk near where the Russians are reported to have blown the Hydroelectric
dam on the Mokri Yaly river to slow them down.
Click for Guardian report - Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam
Sky News analyst Sean Bell added a commentary to Twitter footage of tough
fighting by infantry around Bakhmut.
Click for Sky News report - Military analyst Sean Bell watches 'sobering'
footage of close quarters fighting in Bakhmut
Russian troops on the Kinburn spit (south of Kherson) were reported to have been cut off by
floodwater from the breached Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam.
The Russians are counter-claiming to have repelled these Ukrainian attacks,
inflicting heavy damage on armour supplied by the West.
So the situation remains unclear and we may have to wait a while to discover whether or not Ukraine has
been able to achieve any sustainable break through the Russian defensive
lines.
Russia has a strong but little used air-force which could still be brought to
bear; pundits suggest the Ukrainian 2023 campaign can be expected to play out over weeks and
months.
6th June 2023 (day 468)
It's both the anniversary of WWII D-Day, and a big news day in Ukraine.
Hydroelectric dam blown up
War is similar to a game of chess. Following the start of the Ukrainian
counter-offensive, Russia has responded by blowing up a section of the
massive Nova Kakhovka Hydroelectric dam, which was mined last October,
causing widespread flooding in the Kherson region.
Click for BBC report: What we know about Nova Kakhovka dam attack
Many will see this as a war crime, but that will not worry Putin who seems
intent on destroying as much of Ukraine as he can.
Click for Sky News report: State of emergency declared after major dam
breach in Russia-controlled Kherson region
Blowing the dam will delay if not prevent the Ukrainian army crossing the
Dnieper river into Russian held Kherson, flood many villages putting the
lives of tens of thousands of civilians at risk, possibly flood some Russian
defensive positions, and could put in danger the water supply to the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and farmland to the north, and the canal
serving the Crimean peninsula in
the south.
Sadly many civilians will have drowned last night, and crops and livestock
destroyed on an immense scale.
This predictable event could affect the war in Ukraine in a big way, but this
provocation by Russia will only make both Ukraine, and its allies, more
determined to defeat Putin and his cabal, in whatever time it takes.
Other news
Alex Crawford is currently in Dnipro reporting for Sky News.
Putin is rumoured to be increasingly ignoring those reporting bad news, and only
listening to those telling him of successes.
The Australian government is looking into the possibility of supplying
Ukraine with 41 refurbished F-18 aircraft, currently awaiting disposal,
which could impact the war going forward next year.
Ukranian forces are said to have advanced one to two Kilometres north and
south of Bakhmut.
Ukrainian forces are reported to have advanced several Kilometres and
occupied the settlement of Novodonetske in the Donetsk region. The Russians
are counter claiming to have inflicted heavy casualties on the Armed Forces
of Ukraine (AFU) and halted their advance.
Surprisingly the incursion by Russian dissidents, supported by Ukraine, into
Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shebekino and Grayvoron in the Belgorod province of
Russia, north of Kharkiv, still appears to be making some headway due to
weak
defences on the Russian border.
It may be many days before the 'fog of propaganda' reduces and we learn how
the Ukrainian counter-offensive is going. In the meantime the world awaits
Russia and Ukraine's next moves in their deadly game of military chess.
5th June 2023 (day 467)
Things are hotting up
From confused reports on Twitter there is a general consensus the Ukrainian
counter-offensive has started, but there is a news blackout, so little
information is reaching the public domain.
29th May 2023 (day 460)
Waves of missile attacks continue
While waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive, Russia continued to fire
waves of missiles at Kiev, many again last night, and some unusually during
daylight. Missiles were also fired at the port of Odessa, and a military
airfield at Khmelmnytskiy in the far west of Ukraine where five aircraft
were reported disabled, the runway damaged, and work is said to be
continuing to contain fires in storage facilities for fuel, lubricants, and
munitions.
Click for Sky News report - Why is Russia attacking Kyiv instead of military
targets?
Ukraine has continued to shell the Belgorod region of Russia (roughly north
of Kharkiv) where Russia brings in arms and supplies from the north
augmenting material brought in through Mariupol and Berdyansk in the south.
Yesterday the Russian ambassador appeared on Laura Kuenssberg's Sunday
Morning TV programme. In summary he said Russia was a large powerful country
and the war would go on until Ukraine surrendered. The possibility of defeat
is not in his playbook.
27th May 2023 (day 458)
Russia has continued launching waves of drones and missiles into Ukraine,
with many claimed to have been shot down by air defences.
There are concerning rumours that Russia may be planning some sort of 'accident'
at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant which might result in the release of
radioactive material.
Ukraine says it is ready for its counter-offensive which could start in
days, while others wonder if Zelensky will wait for Abrams tanks and F-16
aircraft which could start to be delivered in September 2023 or
thereabouts.
Prospects of deteriorating winter weather conditions might even result in
the counter-offensive being delayed to the spring of 2024. That
would give the Russians more time to get rid of Putin and negotiate a peace
settlement before even more blood is shed on both sides.
Putin started his Special Military Operation on 14th February 2022 in order
to displace Zelensky's government and put in a puppet regime, as in Belarus,
believing the operation would be over in a couple of weeks and Western
nations would not intervene.
Putin was wrong on both counts. He has poked the sleeping tiger and
now has a full scale war on his hands. War is destructive, causes
suffering, and in the end neither side really wins. Better to stop this now
before the world descends into nuclear oblivion.
China is saying, leave Putin with the territory he has captured, and come to
a settlement, which at the moment might work for Putin, but not Ukraine.
Ordinary people on both sides would no doubt like the Ukraine war ended before events
run further out of control, and there now seems only one way for that to
happen - that is for President Vladimir Putin and his regime to be removed
and replaced by a more democratic government seeking peaceful coexistence
with Russia's European neighbours.
One wonders whether people of goodwill in Russia will be able to
accomplish that by peaceful means, or whether a bloody coupe will be needed
to overthrow the tyrant and his police
state?
A few days ago, there was a two day incursion across the poorly defended
border from Kozinka to Grayvoron in the Belgorod region of Russia which
caused Russian forces to be moved from the south to strengthen border
security in the north.
Click for Guardian report - Anti Putin militia claims to have overrun
village in Russia border region of Belgorod
Click
for Sky News report on YouTube - Belgorod incursion is an embarrassment for
the Russians
Click for BBC report - Belgorod: Russian paramilitary group vows more
incursions
There have been more recent reports of deep strikes into the occupied ports
of Mariupol and Berdyansk and other partisan activity. Speculation on Twitter
suggests that 'something' may be about to happen.
20th May 2023 (day 451)
So far during May, the Russians have launched 11 waves of missiles presumably
with the aim of terrorising civilians, disrupting Ukrainian preparations for
a counter-offensive, and exhausting air-defence missile stocks - which would
enable Russia to gain air superiority. Meanwhile Russian artillery continues
to shell Ukrainian positions, towns and villages.
The US Patriot air defence system protecting Kiev is said to have
intercepted a number of Putin's hypersonic
Kinzhal air launched missiles, which Putin had claimed there was no
defence against.
Click to read Lawrence Freedman's article: Can Ukraine's Air Defence Systems
Cope?
There are rumours Russian aircraft have been shot down near Bryansk (30
miles inside Russia) and the railway track in Crimea serving the Russian
naval base at Sevastopol has been damaged by either partisans or Ukrainian
special forces. Russian helicopters may have been damaged at Mariupol
airport.
Ukraine is still preventing any significant advance by the Russians beyond
Bakhmut.
The UK has agreed to supply Ukraine with long range Anglo/French
Storm
Shadow cruise missiles, which are air launched. This weapon may
already have been used in Ukraine.
Western nations are to train Ukrainian pilots, and the US may soon
allow other nations to transfer their
F-16 jets to Ukraine; but the appearance of these jets over the
battlefield could be 4 months or more away, too late for the expected
Ukrainian counter-offensive.
In Europe, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland and Portugal
are thought to have
F-16 jets, whose technology is 40 years old. There are said to be many
more F-16s in the middle east, for example Turkey.
On the diplomatic front, China is making noises about peace negotiations,
and African nations have offered to intervene, but the reality is Putin
shows no sign of backing down, while the Ukrainians want return of all
captured territory. There are whispers China is getting fed up with Putin's
belligerance.
President Zelensky has been on a whistle stop tour of Europe visiting Italy
(including meeting the Pope), Germany, France and the UK.
Today, Zelensky is meeting G7 leaders at their summit in Japan:-
The G7 comprises France, United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Japan,
Italy and Canada; representatives from the EU also attend. Russia was
suspended from the G8 after Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.
India is helping Putin by buying Russian oil, while the Prime Minister of
Hungary Viktor Orban continues to push back against EU sanctions in order
not to damage relations with Moscow.
See Newsweek article for background.
Putin's puppet 'Dictator'
Alexander Lukashenko President of Belarus has not been seen for a few
days leading to speculation he may be ill.
Lukashenko has been president for almost 30 years, and during this time the
population has been leaning towards democracy. Should Lukashenko die, or
lose the next election, Putin, if still in power, would no doubt try to
emplace another pro-Russia puppet possibly by means of another Special
Military Operation!
The Ukrainian counter-offensive seemingly has yet to start.
Pundits continue to speculate on what form the expected Ukrainian
counter-offensive might take.
1st May 2023 (day 432)
Ukraine says Russia launched 18 missiles overnight of which 15 were
intercepted. A large explosion was reported at or near a Chemical factory at
Pavlograd (in Dnipro region).
Nick Connolly DW News Correspondent reports on the situation in Ukraine:
Click
for video - Russia steps up air strikes to preempt Ukraine counter-offensive
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says their much-anticipated
counteroffensive is nearing. CNN's Michael Holmes speaks to retired
Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan about what their tactics might be
and what this means for Russia.
Zelensky says Ukrainian counteroffensive is near
30th April 2023 (day 431)
It's Sunday and in the last three days Russia has launched another wave of
missiles allegedly from TU-95 aircraft over the Caspian Sea more than 1,000
Km to the east, while the next day Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot at the
Russian naval base at Sevastopol causing a large fire.
The Russians are said to have fixed six rows of 'nets' across the harbour
entrance at Sevastopol to keep out USVs which must make getting warships in
and out tricky.
Yesterday Sky News broadcast a punchy report by its military analyst Sean
Bell, after the drone strike at Sevastopol, which ended with him saying
'The Spring Storm is coming'.
Click to watch video - Ukraine war: 'Spring storm is coming' as battles
continue to rage
Is Ukraine going to continue nibbling away at Russian logistics or will we
see either Hitler's Blitzkrieg re-enacted, or attritional battles similar to
El Alamein?
We'll just have to wait and see what happens, and whether or not the
'Ukrainian spear is blunted by the Russian rock'.
27th April 2023 (day 428)
The Russians are said to have made small gains around Bakhmut and Adiivka,
while Ukraine is probing the east bank of the Dnipro river further south in
the Kherson region.
So far
Ukraine appears in no hurry to begin its rumoured Counter-Offensive, which
could come in the Spring when the ground has dried out, or possibly even in
the Summer.
Pundits differ about how much ground Ukraine will be able to retake, while
agreeing there will be a bloody and tough fight.
It's unlikely the Counter-Offensive will win the war, but it could
bring both sides to the negotiating table in 2024.
Sky News military analyst retired Air Vice Marshall Sean Bell sees both sides becoming exhausted, and President Zelensky, pressured
by the US, having to negotiate a peace with significant territory remaining
in Russian hands.
Click for Sky News article - Ukraine will struggle to win the war and Russia
will struggle to lose, 22nd April 2023
Others, for example US General Ben Hodges, are more optimistic and see
Ukraine possibly retaking Crimea before negotiating over the future of the
Donbas.
Click
for YouTube video - Briefing featuring Lt General
Ben Hodges, 25th April 2023
Reuters carries an article entitled Digging in:
How Russia has heavily fortified swathes of Ukraine – a development that
could complicate a spring counteroffensive
Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan points out that realistic
strategic objectives have yet to be defined, and measures of success and
failure established:-
Click to read his article - The Ukrainian Offensives are Coming: But How
Might We Measure Success or Failure?
On 27th April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a meeting
with the Prime Minister of Luxembourg, quote:-
More than 98 percent of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have already
been delivered. That means over 1,550 armoured vehicles, 230 tanks and other
equipment, including vast amounts of ammunition. In total we have trained
and equipped more than nine new Ukrainian armoured brigades,
this will put
Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory.
Though these numbers sound impressive they are comparatively small compared to Russia's
arsenal, while the BBC reports Ukraine is short of ammunition for Russian
manufactured artillery, and others hint at significant shortages of
equipment generally.
Click for BBC article - Bakhmut defenders worry about losing support
So does Ukraine have the means to push out the Russian invaders?
War is a test of will and logistics. Ukraine has the will, and providing
NATO nations, particularly the US, continue to supply Ukraine one assumes,
over time, Putin's forces should ultimately be pushed out of Ukraine.
Retired US General Ben Hodges continues to see Crimea as the key to ending
the conflict. Pundits suggest, given the narrow land corridors connecting
Crimea to the mainland, a direct assault on Crimea would be very difficult
and costly. However were the Ukrainian Armed Forces able to retake the south
of Ukraine stopping Russia supplying Crimea from
its northern side, it might then be possible to target Russian bases in
Crimea with precision weapons such as HIMARS forcing a withdrawal of Russian
land assets across the Kerch bridge, together with the removal of air and
naval forces from Crimea.
Now that would really upset Putin and no doubt cause him once again to
threaten use of nuclear weapons. At that point our crystal ball fogs up. One
imagines the possibility of losing Crimea is a red line for Putin and he
might either use a nuclear weapon or threaten the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant. Another possibility is that any of these events could bring down his
regime.
Either way it seems we are living in very dangerous times as Zelensky and
Putin 'spar head to head'.
Meanwhile, two more men have started a civil war in Sudan
placing millions of civilians in danger and causing thousands of refugees to
leave the country.
Army units loyal to de-facto ruler,
Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, are pitted against the
Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a coalition of paramilitaries led by warlord
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
Click to read ReliefWeb - Sudan Conflict Situation Report #2 - April 27,
2023
1st April 2023 (day 402)
From reports, it feels as though there has been little change in the Forward
Edge of Battle Area in recent weeks. Rumour has it the Russians have made
small advances, at the expense of heavy losses of men and equipment.
The Russian winter offensive appears to be stalling, while Ukraine is
hotting up the propaganda war threatening an imminent Spring
counter-offensive.
Meanwhile the Russians have been building defensive positions in depth, in
the occupied territories, so any attempt by Ukraine to push out the Russian
invaders could be a difficult and bloody affair causing both sides to
come to the negotiating table.
Concerns continue about safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant,
while Putin continues to hint at the possible use of nuclear weapons.
Tanks and other equipment are trickling in from NATO allies.
Click for ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31st, 2023
Click to read Phillips P OBrien's weekly update on substack.com
Click
to watch John Spencer's lecture on the 2022 battle for Kiev, which can be
seen on YouTube
19th March 2023 (day 389)
Bakhmut still holds out, while Russian attacks around Avdiivka are
repelled.
Putin visits Crimea and Mariupol
Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Crimea on Saturday on an
unannounced visit to mark the ninth anniversary of Russia's annexation of
the peninsula from Ukraine, and then went on to visit Mariupol.
Click for BBC report - Putin pays visit to occupied Mariupol, state media
reports
International arrest warrant issued for Putin
On 17th March the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an International
Arrest Warrant for Vladimir Putin on grounds of kidnapping children from
Ukraine. This move could restrict Putin's freedom to travel abroad.
Click for BBC
report - Putin arrest warrant: Biden welcomes ICC's war crimes charges
Click for Guardian explainer - What does the ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir
Putin mean in reality?
14th March 2023 (day 384)
Russian fighter jet downs US drone
Russian Su-27 fighter jets have downed a US Reaper surveillance drone flying
over the Black Sea.
Click
for CNN report - Russian fighter jet forces down US drone over Black Sea
after intercept
Click for BBC report - US drone crashes after incident with Russian fighter
jet
13th March 2023 (day 383)
The Battle of Bakhmut
Fierce fighting continues in Bakhmut and the Russians shell Kherson from the
east side of the river Dnieper killing civilians.
Some pundits are saying Ukraine is trying to hold the Russians at Bakhmut
while they prepare for an offensive elsewhere; possibly in May 2023.
The Russians continue their attempt to encircle Bakhmut and cut off
Ukrainian lines of supply; some are advising Ukrainian forces should consider
withdrawal so seasoned soldiers survive to lead newly trained troops in the
expected Ukrainian offensive.
There are rumours Russia may be running low on its mainstream T72 tanks, as
vintage T62s are being brought out of storage. Deliveries of more modern tanks to
Ukraine from the West could begin ramping up in May.
Despite encountering fierce resistance, Putin remains intent on
winning the war he started. One wonders what others in the Kremlin are
thinking?
Wagner's sponsor Yevgeny Prigozhin has fallen out of favour, after
criticising the Russian military.
Click for BBC report - Heavy losses reported as battle for Bakhmut rages
9th March 2023 (day 379)
Another wave of missile attacks
Russia launched another wave of missiles last night targeting residential
areas and the power infrastructure in Ukraine once again.
The BBC reports about 81 missiles were launched of which only 34 were shot
down.
Click for BBC report - Russia fires hypersonic missiles in new barrage
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was shelled cutting it off from the
electricity grid; so backup diesel generators had to be used to run the
cooling systems.
The Russians appear happy to risk a major nuclear disaster.
8th March 2023 (day 378)
Bakhmut
Fierce fighting goes on for Bakhmut. The city has been razed to the ground;
nothing survives. Ukrainian troops are said to have withdrawn from the east
of Bakhmut to adopt more defensive positions on the west of the Bakhmutovka
river.
For weeks, pundits have been suggesting Ukraine should fall back to avoid an
increasing casualty rate as the Russians draw closer; but for the time,
being both sides continue to slog it out and it is not clear who will be the
first to give in.
While some say Bakhmut has little strategic value, losing Bakhmut would
damage Ukraine’s lines of supply and open the way for Russian forces to
press on toward the strategic strongholds of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
However the ground, which is said to be marshy and slopes uphill, will be
strongly defended by Ukraine, making any Russian advance beyond Bakhmut
either slow or impossible.
Click for Sky News report by Prof Michael Clarke, which is preceeded by an
advertisement:
Why is the city of Bakhmut so important
Kupyansk
There are rumours the Russians will try to take back Kupyansk in the north.
Vulhedar
In the south Russian attempts to capture Vulhedar see to have been thwarted.
It's rumoured Ukraine could launch a spring offensive from hereabouts towards
Melitopol and Crimea.
Tanks
The are reports of Abram tanks arriving in Germany, despite rumours these
might not arrive until towards the end of the year.
The German defence company Rheinmetall is said to be investigating purchase
of 96 Leopard 1 tanks mothballed by Switzerland.
The first batch of Bradley infantry fighting vehicles from the United States
is said to have arrived in Germany.
Uncertainties
If the Russian offensive has started, it feels as though it may be grinding
to a halt; the expected Ukrainian offensive could begin in April, but where?
The Russian army has lost a lot of tanks and is reported to be taking
ancient T62 tanks out of storage and upgrading with 'night sights', but
these tanks lack modern armour.
The Russian airforce remains mostly unused, and could wreak havoc were
Ukraine to run low on air defence artillery.
Military support from Iran and China could yet 'upset the applecart'.
26th February 2023 (day 368)
Sunday
Sky News carries a very good summary of the situation in Ukraine with a
report by Sky's military analyst Sean Bell.
Click for Sky video - Russian spring offensive could be decisive as both
countries show no appetite for compromise
25th February 2023 (day 367)
The Russian grip on Bakhmut tightens by the day. It sounds as though Ukraine
will soon have to withdraw.
The US has concerns China might start supplying munitions to Russia, which
could be a game changer.
The anticipated Russian onslaught on 24th February, the anniversary of the
invasion did not materialise.
The day before Putin held a rally to whip up support for his invasion of
Ukraine.
Click for Guardian report: Putin addresses tens of thousands at Moscow rally
22nd February 2023 (day 364)
Situation reports
Jomini of the West published an update on the war, on Twitter.
Click for Jomini of the West analysis for the period 8 - 19 Feb 2023
Alternatively,
Click for ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 21, 2023
For more detailed maps,
Click for MilitaryLand: Invasion Day 362 – Summary
21st February 2023 (day 363)
Important speeches
Putin addressed the Russian nation justifying his invasion of Ukraine. He
shows no remorse or regret and seems intents on further escalation.
Click for BBC report: Putin promotes Russian escalation in annual speech
In the evening Joe Biden President of the United states addressed crowds in
Warsaw, Poland.
Click for White House speech: Remarks by President Biden Ahead of the
One-Year Anniversary of Russia’s Brutal and Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine
Click for CNN report: Biden issues a rallying cry in Warsaw: ‘Ukraine will
never be a victory for Russia’
With Putin vowing to defeat Ukraine and Biden defending Ukraine's freedom,
it's difficult to predict how this conflict will end.
20th February 2023 (day 362)
In the last fortnight Russia seems to have gained little
ground while suffering many casualties.
Pundits differ as to whether the Russian offensive has
already begun and largely stalled, or whether the spring offensive has yet
to start.
Today President Biden met President Zelensky in Kiev and
confirmed continuing US support for Ukraine.
Warnings are voiced in NATO about Ukraine using munitions faster
than the West can currently procure them.
Unrest continues in Moldova:
Click for BBC report: Moldova wary of protests fanned by pro-Russian party
On 13th February the President of Moldova accused Russia
of plotting to use foreign saboteurs to overthrow her pro-EU government.
Click for BBC profile of Moldova
10th February 2023 (day 352)
Russia fires more salvos of missiles into Ukraine.
Putin is said to be fomenting trouble in Moldova no doubt
hoping to bring Moldova under his control and open up another front from
which to attack Ukraine.
Moldova used to be part of the USSR. It only has a small
army, is not part of NATO and would like to join the EU. The break away
region of Transnistria on the border with Ukraine remains affiliated to Russia.
On 10th February the Prime Minister of Moldova Natalia
Gavrilita resigned and President Maia Sandu appointed Defence Minister Dorin
Recean the new Prime Minister.
Click for BBC report: Moldovan government resigns in wake of multiple crises
Jomini of the West published an analysis of the war on Twitter.
Click for Jomini of the West analysis of the period 1 - 7 Feb 2023
8th February 2023 (day 350)
On Wednesday 8th February Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky made a
surprise trip to the UK to speak in Westminster Hall and meet King Charles
at Buckingham Palace.
Click for BBC news in pictures: President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the UK
Zelensky asked for fighter jets to bolster air defences.
The media suggests he has US manufactured
F16s in mind to replace Soviet era aircraft.
Others suggest the ageing
A10 Warthog and attack
helicopters could prove useful to Ukraine.
7th February 2023 (day 349)
Some say the heralded Russian offensive has already begun
with aggressive efforts for example to capture Bakhmut for Putin before the anniversary of the Russian invasion on 24th February,
and prevent Ukraine taking Kreminna in the north.
In the east, fierce fighting continues around Bakhmut,
Soledar, and Vulhedar, towards Adviivka.
Ukraine could be reluctant to withdraw from Bakhmut in
order to prevent Putin from claiming a victory on the first anniversary of his
Special Military Operation.
Some pundits are beginning to wonder if countering the
forthcoming Russian
offensive might 'exhaust' Ukraine leaving insufficient military effort to push
back the Russian occupiers in the summer.
MOD UK on the other hand thinks, quote: 'while Russian
leaders will likely continue to demand sweeping advances, it remains
unlikely that Russia can build up the forces needed to substantially affect
the outcome of the war within the coming weeks'.
The Daily Kos news website asks:-
Is Russia's big winter offensive already fizzling out?
We watched the second episode of 'Putin vs the West' on
BBC2 last night. It was interesting to hear that Putin had once taken the
view that the West should not intefere and seek regime change in other
countries such as Libya and Syria; whereas now Russia attempts regime change in Ukraine. Putin is clearly a hypocrite adjusting the
message to suit his own ends.
For maps and a situational update click the links below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 348 – Summary
Institute for the Study of War assessment 6th February 2023
2nd February 2023 (day 344)
Fierce fighting continues all along the line of contact
with the Russians continuing to probe defences and shell weak spots.
The media speculates Ukraine has asked for F16 fighter
aircraft from the US (likely to be refused) and that Poland may have already
supplied some MIG29s catalogued as spares.
The US is still refusing to supply long-range ATACMS
missiles but there are rumours Ukraine could be given the Boeing
Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB).
GLSDB is a joint venture 'rocket' that might possibly be launched from
MLRS and HIMARS with potentially double the range of missiles currently
supplied.
The claimed range of 150 Km would put all of occupied
Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions within the range of
Ukrainian forces. This would be an opportunity for GLSDB to be tested in
combat - it has yet to be seen whether the weapon lives up to the marketing
hype.
28th January 2023 (day 339) - update on the last ten days
Tanks
The NATO Ukraine Contact Group, chaired by the US, at the
Ramstein airforce base in Germany, approved increased military aid for
Ukraine, except for the sending of Leopard tanks which was still being
considered by German Chancellor Scholz.
Some days later Germany announced it would send 14
Leopard tanks and agree to the export of Leopard tanks from other nations.
The next day Putin launched another wave of rocket and
drone attacks to signal his displeasure. 47 of the 55 rockets were said to
have been shot down and all the drones.
It is thought that Chieftain and Leopard tanks could
start arriving in Ukraine towards the end of March 2023.
The US has separately agreed to supply 31 Abrams
tanks though these will need supporting fuel, logistics, and maintenance
arrangements that might not be in place until towards the end of 2023 by
which time the conflict could be over.
It is currently unclear how many of the 300 tanks
requested Ukraine will get, but together with 109 Bradley 'light tanks'
and other armoured vehicles on their way, there may be enough additional
capability to enable a fast-moving Ukraine offensive.
Bakhmut
Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut are taking a hammering as
Russian forces continue to advance incrementally. After many months of fighting
it seems inevitable that Bakhmut will soon fall as Putin pours in
reinforcements.
But attrition of the Russian force has been a high price
to pay, which could favour Ukraine in the longer term.
Vulhedar
150 Km south of Bakhmut fierce fighting continues over
control of the town of Vulhedar near Donetsk where claims of a Russian
breakthrough are
disputed by Ukraine.
The next Russian offensive
The media suspects Russia will be the first to launch a
new offensive within the next 6 weeks possibly attempting a break out from
Bakhmut and Vulhedar in order to complete capture of the Donbas region.
Given that the Russians have recently been slowly forcing
the defenders of Bakhmut back, in the short term, one can only imagine Ukraine losing further
ground as Russia builds up troop numbers.
But perhaps the increased aid from NATO and the
West will eventually enable Ukraine to hold the line.
It seems doubtful that Ukraine currently has the
advantage in troop numbers necessary to push Putin's men out of the
territory they hold
without longer range missiles such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow, but
we'll see.
Ukrainian offensive
Time will tell whether or not Ukraine
can mount an offensive, and if so where. It could be two to four months
before the new armour arrives and troops are fully conversant with its use
and got ready.
It seems likely Russia will strike the first blow, but
what happens thereafter is anybody's guess.
Prospects for a negotiated peace
A peace settlement still looks unlikely while Putin is
president. Like Hitler, he will probably continue to the bitter end, even if
his generals think it's a lost cause.
Pundits are suggesting that no-one will stand up to
Putin. If the Kremlin leadership think it's time for Putin to go he will
probably either die in some accident that cannot be attributed to them, or
under the surgeon's knife. An assassination in all but name.
In there last few days there have been some saying it
will be very difficult for Ukraine to recapture the Donbas, while others
suggest that with Russian troop numbers gradually building Ukraine will
begin to suffer setbacks. Perhaps they are reflecting Putin's propaganda?
The Western media generally seems to be of the opinion
that the Russians are going to take a pounding, which may be wishful
thinking.
Others are suggesting that Western nations are tiring of
the bloodshed and could soon be pushing Ukraine to agree a settlement in which Putin
keeps most of the territory Russia occupies. On the other hand there are
those that suggest Ukraine
will have to take back Crimea in order to reduce the likelyhood of future
Russian adventures.
All this suggests there are fierce battles to come in
the first half of 2023 which may decide the conflict. This will likely
result in tens of thousands more people being killed and maimed, and
expenditure of billions of pounds which might otherwise be spent
on rebuilding and humanitarian aid.
As John Simpson says - it's a mad world.
18th January 2023 (day 329)
Internal Affairs minister killed in tragic helicopter crash
The BBC reports that the three main figures in Ukraine's
Ministry of Internal Affairs have been killed in a helicopter crash beside a
nursery in Brovary an eastern suburb of the capital Kyiv. Interior Minister
Denys Monastyrsky died alongside his First Deputy Yevhen Yenin and Secretary
of State Yuiy Lubkovich.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine's interior ministry leadership killed in
helicopter crash
Kissinger suggests Ukraine may join NATO
Kissinger seems to have changed his mind and now thinks Ukraine will have
to join NATO because of Putin's continued belligerence, but reminds us
relations with Russia will need to be re-established after the war with
Ukraine is over.
Leopard tanks
Ukraine is seeking an additional 300 modern battle tanks
for upcoming offensives.
Pundits suggest NATO has about 2,000 Leopard tanks of
various vintages scattered within NATO countries some of which are in
storage and others awaiting upgrade. To date Germany has withheld approval
for export from itself or any other country.
The German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht has
resigned after a series of blunders - critics say she was not up to job.
Later this week, at the next meetining of the Ukraine
Contact Group, the new Germany Defence Minister
Boris Pistorius is likely to be pressed hard to approve the export of
Leopard tanks.
Pundits are saying Ukraine needs these tanks in days and
weeks, by next year will be too late.
Britain has said it will supply 14 Challenger 2 tanks. A
good opportunity to see how they perform.
A Sky News report mentions these tanks and asks will
Belarus join the war.
Click for Sky News video - Is Russia pushing Belarus to join the war?
Apparently marshy ground limits the places where tanks
could cross the border from Belarus.
Long range missiles
Given the Ukrainian airforce is small and few missions
are being flown due to air defences, longer range missiles such as
ATACMS are needed to hit targets in depth. So far the US has refused to
supply ATACMS missiles, and possibly the use of alternatives is being
considered such as a land based version of
Tomahawk. Putin is said to be beefing up air defences around Moscow.
Patriot air defence batteries
Germany and the Netherlands are now each offering to send
a Patriot Air Defence battery in addition to the one promised by the US.
Meetings
The World Economic Forum is currently meeting in Davos
Switzerland where aid for Ukraine may be being discussed in the sidelines.
On Friday 20th January there is to be a meeting of the
NATO Ukraine Contact Group, led by the US, at the Ramstein airforce base in
Germany.
Pundits think Putin could be planning a major offensive
within weeks, so delivery of additional military aid is of the utmost
urgency.
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly told a forum at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington that Nato
allies were conveying a clear message to Russian president Vladimir Putin by
boosting their arms supplies to Ukraine.
'The message we’re sending to Putin... is that we made a
commitment to support Ukrainians until they are victorious'.
It's a warning Putin has continued to ignore.
15th January 2023 (day 326)
Waves of missiles launched at Ukraine
Yesterday (Saturday) massive waves of Russian cruise
missiles, drones and ballistic missiles were launched at Ukraine. Targets
included Kiev, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa, Kryvyi Rih and Vinnytsya.
These attacks were a further attempt to damage the power
infrastructure, and freeze the population into surrendering.
In Dnipro a large apartment block was hit causing part to collapse
with large loss of life.
Click for Sky News report by Philip Ingram - What type of missiles hit
Ukraine this weekend?
Click for BBC report - Russia fires new waves of missiles at Ukraine and
hits energy infrastructure
Reports suggest at least 35 killed and 75 injured, but
there could be 40 or more casualties buried under the rubble.
The General Staff of UAF reported:-
Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched 3 air and 57
missile strikes, carried out 69 attacks from rocket salvo systems, in
particular, on civilian infrastructure. The enemy used S-300/S-400
anti-aircraft guided missiles to launch missile strikes on the capital
(from Belarus) and other populated areas of Ukraine.
It also launched 41 air and sea-based cruise missiles and
guided air missiles, which are high-precision weapons. Twenty six rockets were
destroyed by our defenders.
The UAF claimed that the following 'high-precision' weapons were used:-
Russia claims to have captured Soledar
The Russian MOD claims to have captured Soledar, a small
salt mining town to the NE of Bakhmut. There has been fierce fighting there
for months and many lives have been lost. Putin next wants to capture
Bakhmut and thus advance to Kramatorsk in order to take control of Donetsk province.
Ukraine claims the Russians do not yet have complete
control of Soledar
Ukraine urgently needs more armaments
Pundits in the Twitter-sphere allege the situation
remains
finely balanced. Putin is going to carry on fighting and is planning to
mobilise more soldiers.
To stay in the game, Ukraine urgently needs more heavy
armaments such as additional tanks, and
ATACMS longer range missiles.
Poland and Spain are willing to gift German made
Leopard
tanks, but Germany's Chancellor
Olaf Scholz is
cautious and not happy about their export without the USA leading with a contribution of
Abrams tanks.
So far the German government has been very reluctant to
supply its own Leopard tanks - it's not clear why.
According to the media, the US is doubtful about sending Abrams tanks,
murmuring about unreliability and training, but is said to be considering
supplying Bradley 'light tanks'.
Meanwhile the UK government has agreed to supply 14
Challenger 2 tanks and around 30
AS90
self-propelled guns could follow.
Click for press release - PM accelerates Ukraine support ahead of
anniversary of Putin’s war
Small numbers, but let's hope that lead prompts Germany and the US to
approve the appropriate military aid.
Neutral Switzerland is said to be blocking the export of
Swiss manufactured ammunition from Spain to Ukraine. For that reason there
seems little reason to buy arms from Switzerland in future, unless of course
the ammunition can be dispatched in a plain brown wrapper.
Jeremy Bowen said on the BBC TV news that the West must
be prepared to switch more production to the war effort if Putin is to be
defeated.
Meaning we will all have to feel some pain if Putin is to
be defeated.
Comment
There is generally little warning of, or defence against,
attacks by ballistic missiles as Britain found when the Nazis launched V2
rockets against London during WWII. The promised Patriot missile batteries might provide
some point defence capability but there won't be many, it's not known how
effective they will be, and the missiles are very expensive.
Taking out the mobile launch platforms would be another
option, but could prove
difficult.
On the Drama TV channel we watched the first episode of a
historical drama about the German invasion of Norway during WWII called
Atlantic Crossing which somewhat mirrors the invasion of Ukraine. If you
missed it, it's worth watching on catch up TV.
That reminded us that the Soviet Union invaded Finland in
1939/1940 with only partial success. A situation not far removed from that
currently in Ukraine.
Click for
Wikipedia article - The Winter War
Another example of Russia attempting to expand its
borders was the
Soviet invasion of eastern Poland in 1939.
7th January 2023 (day 318)
BBC Briefing Room
There was a good update on the status of the war in Ukraine at 11:00 am
on BBC Radio 4 today. The programme was Briefing Room and you will need to
sign in with your username and password to listen.
Click for BBBC programme - Ukraine: How will the war evolve in 2023?
Description
David Aaronovitch and a panel of experts evaluate the
current situation in Ukraine and explore how the war might evolve in the
remaining winter months and into the Spring.
Joining David Aaronovitch in The Briefing Room are:
-
Michael Clarke, Professor of Defence studies and
Specialist Advisor to the Joint Committee on the National Security
Strategy
-
Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War
Studies at King's College London
-
Samantha de Bendern, Associate Fellow at the Royal
Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House
-
Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor of The Economist
Duration: 30 minutes
 Comment
The current situation still seems to be 'Deadlock' with
the Russians digging in, for example, in Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, hoping to
stop any Ukrainian advance beyond Kreminna in the north and towards
Melitopol further south.
With the situation finely balanced, Putin will be hoping
mobilisation will tip the balance his way, whereas greater numbers of
more effective weapons could tip the balance in Ukraine's favour. It's
anybody's guess what happens next.
Our new Winometer (opposite) is designed
to show at a glance which way the war might be tipping.
Red: in Russia's favour
Yellow: Deadlock or stalemate
Green: in Ukraine's favour
2nd January 2023 (day 313)
Putin's attempt to remove President Zelensky and install a puppet
government within days failed, and so the war drags on into its 11th month.
Over New Year Russia continued to fire waves of missiles
and kamikaze drones into Ukraine increasingly at night when the drones
are harder to hit.
Many of these were shot down by air defences, while
others added to civilian misery.
Russia continues to attack civilian rather than military
targets.
During Russia's New Year Special on state TV, the
presenter joked 'like it or not, Russia is enlarging' suggesting in time
Russia expects to take Ukraine back. One wonders if these people believe
what they say?
See Tweet by Julia Davis @JuliaDavis News
A technical school in Makiivka where newly mobilised
Russian soldiers were quartered is hit by HIMARS rockets and totally
destroyed. Possibly there are several hundred casualties. A significant
setback for the Russians
29th December (day 309)
Russia fires dozens of missiles at Ukraine
The BBC early morning news reported a massive wave of
missile attacks hitting energy inrastructure around Lviv, Kiev, Kharkiv, and
Odessa. An early report from a Ukrainian source suggested 120 missiles had
been launched, while later this was reduced to 69 missiles of which 54 were
intercepted by air defences.
Click for BBC report - Russia fires dozens of missiles at Ukrainian cities
Deadlock
Another spokesman said that stalemate had been reached
with neither side currently being able to make significant advances.
Click for BBC article - Ukraine fighting is deadlocked, spy chief Kyrylo
Budanov tells BBC
With its infrastructure being destroyed and Putin
bringing in tens of thousands of newly mobilised troops things are beginning
to look difficult for Ukraine.
Without Nato troops becoming actively involved, Ukraine
ideally needs longer range offensive weapon systems to
target for example cruise missile launching platforms, Russian factories,
and outrange Russian artillery.
Despite the hype, the few defensive Patriot air defence
systems promised by Biden can't be expected to make much difference.
Opposition to Putin
Propaganda, and sanctions
Click for Daily Mail article - Russian fury grows over Putin's madness
28th December (day 308)
Russia continued firing missiles and shells into
the city of Kherson over the Christmas period causing hundreds of
civilians to flee.
Comment
As the year 2022 draws to a close, Russia is continuing
to lay waste to Ukraine hoping by some miracle the Ukrainians will surrender,
but there seems little chance of that providing military and humanitarian
support from NATO nations is maintained, and Western arsenals do not
become exhausted.
Aid from the US is particularly important and President
Biden seems committed to the long haul.
Putin has bet all he has on this war so he is very
unlikely to back down. Russia is calling for Ukraine to cede the territories
it claims to have annexed, despite not being fully occupied.
Pundits say that Russia never stands by agreements and
that any pause will just give Russia the time to rearm before it comes back
for another bite; that suggests to us the only successful outcome from a
Western viewpoint will be a complete defeat of the Russian armed forces in
Ukraine in 2023. A defeat which would almost certainly result in Putin's downfall
and political turmoil in Russia.
There has been little change to the front-line in recent
weeks despite fierce fighting around Bakhmut and Kreminna. There are however
rumours that the Russians may be becoming 'exhausted' around Bakhmut and
Ukraine is edging closer to Kreminna despite Russian
reinforcements.
Russia's loss of Kreminna would cut off supplies from
Belgorod to Luhansk and Donetsk and weaken Putin's grip on the Donbas
A few days ago there was a second drone attack on the
Russian Engels airbase, from where strategic bombers may have launched cruise missiles at
Ukraine; but it is not yet clear what damage was caused. Some aircraft are
rumoured to have been damaged and others moved further east.
The ability to hit the Engels airbase near Saratov
suggests a capability to target the Kremlin should Russia attack the heart
of Kiev.
Fires at Russian facilities suggest Ukrainian Special
Forces may be operating in Russia, while partisans are rumoured to be active
in Melitopol.
It's interesting that, so far, relatively little use has
been made of air and naval power presumably due to the threat from missiles
on both sides; and that radar is still being used despite giving away
location and vulnerability to countermeasures and anti radiation missiles.
27th December (day 307)
The Institute for the Study of War published its 27th December daily
update.
Click for Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 27th December 2022
See Key Takeaways in the above article for bullet points.
On Sky News Professor Michael Clarke related how the
Russian invasion of Ukraine played out in 2022.
Click for Sky News video - Michael Clarke on how war played out in 2022
21st December (day 301)
BBC Reith Lecture: Freedom from Fear
We started the day by listening to Dr Fiona Hill talking
on BBC Radio 4 about Russia, Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine - she is
worth listening to, quote:-
In the last in a series of four lectures examining what
freedom means, the foreign affairs and intelligence expert, British born, Dr
Fiona Hill gives her BBC Reith Lecture on 'Freedom from Fear'.
Dr Hill is one of the world’s leading experts on Russia,
and served as director for European and Russian affairs on President Trump’s
National Security Council, and in senior intelligence roles for both
Presidents Bush and Obama.
She talks about the fear she felt growing up as
teenager in the Cold War and living with the threat of nuclear war. Then,
she says, the culture of fear was about the Soviet Union, a largely unknown
enemy. 40 years later, have we come full circle?
She also analyses Russia's war in Ukraine, and what it
means for the world.
Click
to listen to Freedom from Fear lecture
(You will needs to sign in to your BBC account)
Speculation about what happens next
Russia is still a power to be reckoned with. It has
caused severe damage to Ukraine's infrastructure, and despite troops being
poorly trained Putin clearly hopes quantity will prevail over quality.
It is currently thought unlikely that Lukashenko would
commit Belarus Armed Forces to the war in Ukraine; but that would not
prevent Putin launching a
Russian, possibly surprise, attack from Belarus in the first quarter of 2023.
Pundits are wondering if the next goals of Ukraine will be to:
-
take Svatove in order to interrupt supplies to
Luhansk;
-
head for Melitopol in order to retake territory in
the South and disrupt supplies to Crimea;
-
capture or damage the railway junction at Volnovakha
near Donetsk in order to interrupt supplies to Mariupol.
Visit to USA
Zelensky is travelling to the US for a meeting with Joe Biden.
It will be the first time during the war that he has left Ukraine.
Click for BBC article: Zelensky in Washington: Ukraine's leader heads to US
for first foreign trip
Comment
There are rumours both sides are running low on
munitions. Victory will likely go to the alliance best able to maintain
production. Hence continued support from the US, and some say the supply of
longer range missiles capable of striking the source of Russian missile
launches within Belarus and Russia (and by its navy), is vital if Putin is to be defeated.
Few will want to see civilians go through another harsh
winter without power, so this pointless war ideally needs to be brought to a
conclusion by the summer of 2023, if not earlier. Putin's adventure is
hurting both the Russia people and Ukraine, and it's time he was retired.
19th December (day 299)
Putin visits Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus, presumably to
try once again to coax Lukashenko into committing Belarus Armed Forces to
the war in Ukraine. The population of Belarus is largely anti Russian so
that seems unlikely.
Earlier Russia unleashed 35 Iranian Shahed drones on
Ukraine in the early hours of Monday as many people slept in darkness,
hitting critical infrastructure in and around Kiev in Moscow's third air
attack on the Ukrainian capital in six days. The Ukrainian Air Force said
its air defences shot down 30 incoming drones.
Yesterday there were reports of a large fire at a Russian
oil and gas field in Irkutsk. Not clear whether this was sabotage or an
accident.
17th December (day 297)
Putin reportedly visited the Russian Joint Forces
headquarters yesterday to meet with Generals Shoigu, Gerasimov, and
Surovikin.
There are rumours that Russia is taking steps to disrupt
GPS (Satnav) in order to deter Ukrainian GPS guided munitions fired into
Russia.
A succinct update from Sky News on the general situation
and asking will Russia try again to take Kiev?
Click for Sky video - retired Air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell takes a look at the
latest situation in Ukraine
16th December (day 296)
Large wave of drones and missiles
Putin launches a ninth wave of 76 missiles and drones,
largely aimed at energy infrastructure around Kiev and Kherson of which 60
were shot down. The attack was possibly launched from ships in the Sea of
Azov and Black Sea, and from Krasnodar in Russia.
For example see report from Rob Lee on Twitter:-
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1603836572436033536
Ukraine claims 37 of the 40 missiles targeted on Kiev
were shot down.
12th December (day 292)
Comment
On the face of it, Putin is determined to hold onto the
territory Russia still occupies in Luhansk, Donetsk and the Kherson region
east of the Dnieper river. Defensive lines incorporating 'Dragons Teeth'
concrete obstacles, trenches and minefields are being built on a large
scale, while the Dnieper river remains a major obstacle for Ukraine.
Russia also seems intent on taking more territory as
evidenced by fierce attacks on Bakhmut and surrounds, while further north
Ukraine is attempting to push the Russians out of Svatove and Kremmina,
thereby taking control of the P66 highway.
For the time being at least, the war seems to be
settling into a drawn-out conflict, with neither side capable of making a
decisive breakthrough:-
To a large extent, Ukraine is pursuing a war of
attrition by harrying Russian lines of supply, ammunition depots,
troop concentrations, and command posts.
Russia on the other-hand has been targeting, with great
success, Ukraine's electricity generating and transmission capacity and
other infrastructure in order to cut off electricity, heating and water,
thereby hoping to create destabilizing waves of refugees and grind the
government's functioning to a halt.
Russia may be making small gains around Bakhmut, while
Ukraine may be making small gains around Svatove and Kreminna, but overall
there has been little change in the front-line for some weeks despite much
loss of life.
In the north, Ukraine has been largely stalled along the
line of the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna for 2 months.
These articles summarise the situation so far:
Click for Brookings article: The Russia-Ukraine war and its ramifications
for Russia
Click for Twitter article by Dara Massicot on Russia's transition to the
defensive
What happens next
What happens next is by no means clear. Despite tales of
poor morale, Russia could yet win - as defined by holding on to occupied
territory.
Ukraine can only win - as defined by pushing Russsia back
to the 24th February start-line, if fully backed by Western nations having a
much stronger combined economy and manufacturing capability than Russia.
France, Germany, and Hungary appear somewhat half
hearted in their support for Ukraine, while Iran and possibly North
Korea are backing Putin.
Other countries like Switzerland and India are
taking a neutral stance.
The Hindustan Times sometimes carries Pro Russian
headlines - does that mean India is a little pro Putin?
To prevent losing the war, Ukraine needs to
conserve and maintain stocks of expensive air defence missiles in order to
suppress the Russian airforce and bring down cruise missiles, while finding
cheaper ways of dealing with drones ranging from those bought from
'supermarkets' to Kamikaze UAVs bought from Iran.
Pundits say Ukraine will need a better supply of longer
range rockets and missiles, which are in the gift of the US,
in order to reach behind defensive lines and push the Russian army out of
Ukraine, thus bringing the war to a swifter and less bloody close.
8th December (day 288)
Large explosions are reported at the Russian airbase in occupied
Berdyansk (near the port of Mariupol).
Comment
There are rumours in the media that Putin is setting the
scene for his invasion of Ukraine to continue for as long as it takes to
achieve Ukraine's surrender.
The West cannot afford to let Putin win, so must
continue supporting Ukraine.
If Ukraine is seen to win, other countries such as
Belarus and Kazakhstan might in time choose to leave the Russian Federation.
The Wagner group continue their ferocious attack on
Bakhmut. Pictures show scenes from hell. Either there is considerable value
in taking the area or Wagner's sponsor Yevgeny Prigozhin wants a victory to
cement his position as a possible successor to Putin.
Ukraine continues its offensive to take Svatove, Kreminna
and the P66 highway to the north, while the Russians pile in reinforcements
in an attempt to prevent them.
Click for Daily Kos article - Losing this war could destroy Russia
There are suggestions Putin would retire with his family
to Argentina or Brazil were he either to lose the war or be deposed.
7th December (day 287)
Sky News Security and Defence Analyst Professor Michael
Clarke has the latest on the ground in Ukraine, starting with the ongoing
fighting around Bakhmut:-
Click for Sky News report - Battles for control of Bakhmut rage on
Another Sky News report from Bakhmut mentions it's hard
to dig trenches when the ground freezes, and difficult to hide when the
leaves drop from trees.
Click for Sky News report - team forced to take cover from Russian shells
with Ukrainian soldiers
Are these journalists brave or foolhardy putting their lives at risk;
probably a bit of both!
Elsewhere, Russia is said to be building defensive lines
not only in the occupied regions of Ukraine but in Russia and Belarus. Can
the Russian leadership really be concerned about the armed forces of
Ukrainian invading Russia? Perhaps it is mostly a propaganda exercise to
convince ordinary Russians that Ukraine is a threat.
6th December (day 286)
There were drone strikes at or near three military airbases in
Russia, several hundred Kilometres from Kharkiv, potentially putting Moscow
in the firing line.
Rumour has it these attacks may have involved 1970s
vintage Tupolev TU-141 reconnaissance drones modified by the Ukrainians to
carry a warhead.
Ukraine had previously announced a weapon with 1,000 Km
range was under development.
The strike locations were:
- Khalino (Vostochny) 150 Km north of Kharkiv (in Belgorod direction
near Kursk) where oil tanks were hit.
- Dyagilevo near Rayazan, possibly one TU-22 damaged.
- Engels airbase outside the
city of Saratov.
Engels houses Russia's strategic bombing fleet of TU-160
and TU-95 planes, which have been used to launch missiles at Ukraine and can
be adapted to carry nuclear weapons. Possibly two long range bombers were damaged.
These attacks caused some panic among Russians regarding
the state of their anti-aircraft defences.
There was a further attack on fuel tanks near Bryansk,
close to the border with Ukraine, owned by the Federal agency of the State
Reserve of the Russian Federation.
Click for Wikipedia article - Federal Agency for State Reserves (Russia)
Overall there was relatively little damage from these
attacks and much greater destruction than this
will be needed for long range drones to alter the outcome of the land war.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 286 – Summary
5th December (day 285)
Russia launches another wave of about 70 missiles at
Ukrainian utilities. About 60 are said to have been shot down by air
defences, but the power network is further damaged causing extensive
blackouts.
A Turkish company could provide power plant ships
to feed the Ukrainian grid from Romania and/or Moldova. The capacity to
power one million homes has been mentioned. That's a small fraction of
Ukraine's needs but might help.
28th November (day 278)
Pundits suggest the intense cold could take a heavy toll
on poorly equipped Russian soldiers in Ukraine this winter and large numbers
could die of hypothermia; just as Hitler's troops were decimated in Russia
during the winter of 1943.
Click for Daily Kos article - Invasion Day 278: A longer winter ahead
Russian armed forces continue firing shells and missiles and
attempting to press forward, but could there come a time this winter when
Russian soldiers fold and begin to retreat?
Phillips P O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies,
University of St Andrews speculates on where the war might be going next in
an updated article hosted on the substack.com website.
Click for weekend update #4
25th November (day 275)
More of the same.
It's now more than nine months since Putin ordered the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin's forces have lost momentum and the
morale of ordinary soldiers is said to be low. Putin's future is looking
more and more uncertain.
Russian General Suvorikin no doubt plans to avoid
guerilla skirmishes, fight more head to head battles of his own choosing,
and continue destroying Ukraine's energy and communications infrastructure
until Ukraine capitulates.
Russia is said to be defending the line between Svatove
and Kreminna with its best troops, and continuing to attack Bakhmut and
surrounds, losing many men in the process.
Last Tuesday (23rd) Putin launched another wave of
missile attacks cutting off power in Lviv and Kiev.
Today missiles and shells are being fired into civilian
areas of Kherson.
Putin and Suvorikin's plan seems to be to make life hell
for Ukrainian civilians this winter and freeze them into submission.
20th November (day 270)
The fog of war descends once more and it is hard to tell
from the 'Twitter Sphere' what is going on. The front line north of Kherson seems little changed
despite aggressive fighting.
Ukraine continues to target Russian ammunition depots and
headquarters, while the Russians, anticipating Ukrainian advances, have been
building new defensive lines east of the Dnieper
river.
Putin's popularity is declining in Russia, the morale of
Russian soldiers is said to be poor, while Ukraine seems intent on
recapturing Kherson and Crimea.
Phillips P O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies, University
of St Andrews speculates on where the war might be going next in an article
hosted on the substack.com website.
Click for Weekend Update #3 .
Russia going for the jugular
Meanwhile Russia has stepped up long range cruise
missile attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, clearly planning to 'throttle'
Ukraine.
Ukrainian sources suggest 50% of infrastructure is
already damaged and that
those that can afford to should leave Ukraine to reduce energy requirements. The energy situation, given
the onset of winter, appears grim leaving one wondering who will come
out on top.
Other news
The first Norwegian NASAMS medium range air defence systems funded by
the US are said to have been deployed.
There are rumours of an Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV)
attack on the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk which lies roughly 50 Km
south east of the Kerch bridge linking Crimea with Russia. Putin is said to
be keeping quiet about this.
Attacks continue on Russian ammunition depots. The
railway track in occupied Llovaisk is damaged.
A gas pipeline near St Petersburg is in flames.
Speculation in the media suggests Putin's position is
becoming weaker, and that the Russian economy is seriously damaged.
Ukraine's Deputy Defence Minister Havrylov in an
interview with Sky News optimistically suggests Crimea might be taken
in December and the war could be over by Spring 2023.
PM Rishi Sunak met with president Zelensky in Kiev
promising continued British support.
Click for BBC report - Rishi Sunak visits President Zelensky in Kyiv as he
pledges £50m in aid
NATO suspects the missile that landed in Poland might
have been from a Ukrainian S300 air defence system manufactured in Russia.
The calm response suggests NATO is not spoiling for a fight with Russia, and
vice versa.
Click for BBC
report - What happened in Poland missile blast?
Comment
Once again it seems Ukraine is fighting with one hand
tied behind its back. Natural justice suggests Ukraine should be able to
acquire long range missiles to either fire back at Russian energy
infrastructure on a tit for tat basis, or perhaps more sensibly neutralise the
bases from which Russia is launching these missile attacks.
15th November (day 265)
Putin strikes back
Putin strikes back, after losing Kherson, by launching
further waves of missile attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
More than eighty
X-55 and X-101 cruise missiles were reported launched today of which 70 may have been brought down
by air defences.
Power outages in Moldova
Damage to the Ukraine Moldova power interconnector caused
blackouts in Moldova.
Missile hits Poland
Perhaps of greater importance politically, one or two 'stray' missiles are rumoured to have crossed the border hitting grain
dryers on a farm near
Przewodow
in Poland killing two Poles. These may have been been either Russian
missiles aimed at Lviv or Ukrainian air defence missiles.
Subject to both confirmation and the political will, one
wonders if this might provide a trigger for NATO to give Putin an ultimatum
- that Russia should peacefully withdraw from Ukraine else face being
forcefully evicted by a NATO peacekeeping force.
14th November (day 264)
In the Kherson region Ukraine troops will be looking for
Russians who did not make it across the river and possibly Russian Special
Forces deployed in a stay-behind role to report Ukrainian dispositions.
Engineers will be assessing the feasibility of restoring public utilities,
and many more will be engaged in mine clearance.
There is concern in Kherson that Russian artillery will shell the
city from across the river.
Putin meanwhile continues to press stubborn attacks in
Luhansk and Donetsk:-
Click for Ministry of Defence Ukraine - Operational update regarding Russian
invasion as of 18:00 hours, 14 November 2022
Speculation on what happens next
The Daily KOS website carries a link to an interesting
YouTube video in which analyst
Peter Zeihan
argues that the remainder of Kherson and Crimea could be retaken in coming
months by Ukraine interdicting the limited supply routes available to
Russian forces.
Click for Peter Zeihan's YouTube video - Beginning of the Fall of Crimea
November 14th 2022
Ukrainian scouting parties are already rumoured to have
crossed the Dnieper River onto the
Kinburn Spit, and there is speculation
the Russians are moving back defences closer to Melitopol where partisans
have been operating.
Numbers permitting, Ukrainian forces could possibly drive
down from the Dnipro area towards either the port of Mariupol or Melitopol
after nibbling away at Russian assets with rocket artillery.
Donetsk and Luhansk could be a much harder nut to crack
as Russian Troops there have better lines of supply.
13th November (day 263)
It's Sunday and Remembrance services are held in churches across the UK.
Kherson
The Russians appear to have largely escaped to the east
bank of the Dnieper river in good order, so one suspects they may have been
withdrawing from as early as 22nd October mixing with civilians.
In the city of Kherson
the Russians are said to have destroyed energy, water and communications
infrastructure before leaving.
There are rumours Russia could be moving its
administration of the Kherson region from the city of Kherson to Henichesk
much further east.
Russia continues to press attacks on other areas of the
front-line.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 262 – Summary
Also see:-
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 12th November 2022
We'll have to wait now to see what both sides plan next.
11th November (day 261)
Remembrance Day.
Ukrainian units welcomed in Kherson City
The Russian withdrawal from Kherson has been rapid.
Ukrainian units have retaken many villages in the last 24 hours and some
have already been welcomed in the city of Kherson.
Click for BBC report - Ukrainian flags fly in Kherson after Russian retreat
Further north Russian troops continue to attack Bakhmut.
Interview with Bob Seely MP
Bob Seely MP spoke at 8:27 am on Radio 5 Live Breakfast about the situation in Ukraine.
He thinks General Suvorikin's plan is to:
- pull back Russian troops to a strongly defensible line east of the
Dnieper river;
- then trash Ukrainian morale by further destroying the power network
and water supplies with long range missiles.
The presenter suggested 20,000 Russian troops would have to
retreat across the river to the east bank. Bob Seely thought that could
prove very difficult, but have they already gone; perhaps dressed in
civilian clothes? Russian sources suggest the withdrawal is already largely complete. The
situation is unclear.
The war could go on for a few more months, a
couple of years, or even a generation; no one knows.
Putin will at minimum want to hang on to the
land
corridor from Russia through Ukraine to Crimea. If that is threatened he
would be seen to lose so could do something drastic.
Bob Seely suggests the West should:
- Continue with military aid.
- Step up humanitarian aid to include support of electricity and water
supplies.
- Support the development of a nuclear warning and radiation detection
system in Ukraine and Europe in case Putin were to either deploy a
tactical nuclear weapon or wreck a nuclear power station.
9th November (day 259)
Russia to withdraw troops from Kherson
Russian military leaders announced on Television that
troops are to be withdrawn from the city of Kherson and the west bank of the
Dnieper river to more defensible positions being prepared on the east bank.
Putin was noticeable by his absence - presumably so that any setbacks can be blamed
solely on his
Generals.
Click
for BBC report on YouTube - Huge blow for Russia as it abandons key
Ukrainian city of Kherson
Russia is said to be blowing bridges and laying mines to
delay the Ukrainian advance; booby traps may also be being laid.
It is estimated there could be between 20,000 and 30,000
Russian troops and ancillaries to evacuate so casualties could be high were
assembly points and barges crossing the Dnieper river to be shelled by Ukrainian forces.
There has recently been a scarcity of news from Kherson,
but reports Ukrainian units have taken Snivhurivka and are probing towards
Beryslav suggest military units are making good progress towards the city.
UK to provide more surface to air weapons for Ukraine
The UK government issued a press release announcing the provision of more
surface to air missiles, and confirming the provision of kit to Ukrainian
recruits undergoing basic training in UK.
Click for MOD press release - UK to provide 1,000 more surface to air
missiles to Ukraine
1st November (day 251)
General situation
There seems to have been very little change in the
front-line during the last ten days. The ground is becoming increasingly wet and muddy
making the movement of vehicles difficult.
Movement should become easier once the ground freezes, but
the situation for both civilians and soldiers will likely be horrendous this winter.
Putin continues to launch missile attacks against public
utilities cutting off water and electricity supplies.
The biggest story of the week was the Ukrainian attack on
the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea on 29th October using
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and surface vessels (USV). It is said there
may have been some damage to the cruiser Admiral Makarov and a mine sweeper, but no
damage assessments have been reported by either side. One suspects no major
damage was caused.
Grain exports
In consequence of the attack on Sevastopol, Putin said he
would not renew the grain export deal because he could no longer guarantee the
safety of merchant ships.
Meanwhile Turkey and the UN continue to support the
export of grain from Ukraine.
We wonder whether Putin can afford to be seen attacking
bulk grain carriers and will change his mind.
The continuation of grain exports partly depends
on the availability of insurance for merchant vessels.
Click for Aljazeera report: Turkey promises to keep grain moving despite
Russian suspension
The situation in Kherson
It's still not clear whether Russia intends to withdraw
from the Kherson region west of the Dnieper river or fight.
There remains uncertainty as to whether or not the
Russians would blow the Nova Kakihovka dam to flood Kherson following a
withdrawal.
Nuclear weapons
The media continues to speculate on whether Putin might use
tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Boris Johnson speaking on Sky News
thinks not.
Click for Sky News story: Boris Johnson says Vladimir Putin 'would be crazy'
to use tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine
Duration of the war
Defence analyst Professor Michael Clarke speaking today on
the Sky News debate entitled Ukraine: A Modern War says
he expects Ukraine to capture Kherson city either in November or if not in
January 2023. He anticipates the war could continue for a generation
interspersed with
occasional cease fires.
Click for Sky News video - Ukraine: A Modern War
This video which sums up the present situation, and what
might happen next, is well worth watching.
The Iranian factor
Iran is increasingly becoming a major supplier
of drones and missiles to the Russian Federation as Russian stocks run low.
Click for ISW Russian Campaign Assessment 1st November 2022
which mentions Iran's involvement in the war.
Ukraine may need to employ more cost effective measures to
bring these down.
Restocking arsenals
Weapon stocks are being used up at an alarming rate and
NATO nations will have to speed up the restocking of arsenals if the
continuing threat from the Russian Federation is to be countered.
This may involve difficult decisions in these hard
economic times.
22nd October (day 241)
Massive cruise missile and drone attacks on power
stations across Ukraine causing severe damage and power outages which will
last into the winter.
Seems there is a good opportunity here for the West to
test defensive weapon systems.
Israel is good at these things but is rumoured to be
scared of sending weapon systems to Ukraine for fear of upsetting Putin -
it's a strange world.
The Russians are said to be in the process of evacuating
Kherson city and moving to the east bank of the Dnieper river.
Click for Daily Kos update: Russian authorities in Kherson order 'immediate
evacuation'
Click for Associated Press report: What would retreat from Kherson mean for
Russia
British MP Tobias Ellwood and others continue to wonder
whether or not Putin might employ Tactical Nuclear weapons. Tobias Ellwood
calls for the public to be briefed, but not clear to us whether he means the
Ukrainian or British public, and exactly what they should be briefed about?
Two days ago the only submarine cable between Shetland
and the mainland was damaged cutting off Internet services. The damage is
thought to have been caused by a trawler.
Click for BBC report: Damaged cable leaves Shetland cut off from mainland
19th October (day 238)
Putin has continued to launch cruise missile and drone
attacks on civilian infrastructure damaging many power stations, including
an attack on the Burshtynska power station in the far west, near Lviv,
today. Once again one wonders how civilians will cope this winter.
Many missiles are reported shot down but some get
through.
Once again there appears to have been little change to
the front-line.
Rumours are that Ukraine is preparing a final
offensive to retake Kherson up to the west bank of the
Dnieper river, where there is currently a news blackout.
Russian sources admit to being in a weak position and
have begun evacuating civilians from the city of Kherson.
Click for BBC report: Russians start leaving Ukraine's Kherson city
The BBC reports that Putin has announced Marshal
Law in the annexed territories of Ukraine and increased security
measures in parts of Russia.
There are continuing reports of explosions in the Russian
city of Belgorod used as a staging post for Russian military supplies.
Ukrainian aircraft are said to be suppressing Russian air
defences around Kherson.
It's not clear whether Russian troops will fight or
withdraw to the east bank of the Dnieper river.
There are some concerns that if Ukraine threatened Crimea
Putin might use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon unless the US made it very clear
in advance there would be extremely dire consequences.
What matters most to Putin is said to be his own survival
in power - one wonders how secure his position is given increasing
discontent in Moscow.
Click for ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18th 2022
13th October (day 232)
On the face of it not much has happened in the last few
days. Ukraine has not been able to take Svatove and Kreminna in the north,
despite being close.
The Russians have made small gains edging closer to
Bakhmut, and in Kherson to the south have set up a defensive line roughly
running east west through Mylove on the western bank of the Dnieper river.
The most notable event of the last 10 days was an
audacious attack on the Kersch bridge connecting Russia with Crimea. It is
thought this may have been caused by a truck carrying 2 tons of high
explosives, on Putin's birthday.
The explosion caused part of one carriageway to collapse
entirely, and fuel wagons to ignite on the railway causing further damage to
the track. This could significantly delay the passage of Russian armaments
and supplies into Ukraine.
Putin was angry and responded two days later with missile
attacks on Ukrainian cities. About 80 missiles were said to have been
launched of which half were shot down.
Russia says 8 suspects have been arrested in connection
with the Kersch bridge attack.
General Surovikin has been appointed overall commander of
Russian forces in Ukraine. He commanded the air war in Syria which was ended
by the use of chlorine barrel bombs and has a reputation for being a brutal
butcher.
The newspapers discuss whether or not Putin might use
either Chemical, Bacteriological or Nuclear weapons. The G7 leaders have met
by Zoom and warned Putin against this.
Meanwhile Putin is pouring in ill-equipped conscripts.
There are many Russian troops in Belarus exercising with Belarus forces near
the border with Ukraine. This may be to draw Ukrainian units away from other
areas.
The Russian media outlet SOTA reports that police in
Moscow and the surrounding region are raiding hostels, restaurants and
offices to indiscriminately round up men for mobilisation.
There are rumours of civilians preparing to leave Kherson
and one Russian unit who shot their commander who said they could not
surrender.
Overall the situation is somewhat confused, but pundits
wonder whether Putin can last much longer.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 230 – Summary
3rd October (day 222)
In the North East of Ukraine, the push from Lyman
continues. Ukraine troops now seem to have reached route 66 and the
outskirts of Kreminna, while performing a pincer movement
on Svatove to the north. These moves, if successful, will severely disrupt
Russian lines of supply from Belgorod.
For seven months the Russian army has been shelling
civilians from a safe distance, but there are rumours they run away if fired
upon from close quarters. The media suggests the professional Russian
soldiers rapidly withdraw when in danger of being surrounded, leaving poorly
organised conscripts behind.
In the Kherson region Ukraine is
advancing from the north on the western side of the Dnieper river. Ukrainian
troops may have reached Dudchany, and could press on
towards Berislav.
An article in the Daily KOS speculates that Russians
fully realise their invasion of Ukraine is doomed.
Click for Daily KOS article Russia's Hour is Later than it Thinks
The only uncertainty now is how the war will end.
Both sides will be wanting to end the conflict before
freezing winter weather sets in but, without Putin being removed, the
chances of that appear slim.
2nd October (day 221)
Russia continues to be on the back-foot with the Luhansk region now at
risk.
Opinion in Russia may be turning against Putin following
unpopular and poorly organised mobilisation; the loss of Lyman; and heavy
Russian casualties. Many men are fleeing Russia and Crimea to avoid the call-up.
Ukraine has advanced further east from Lyman to Zarichne
and Torske. The objective seems to follow the retreating Russians
further east to Kreminna.
A further objective could be to harry Russian lines of
communication by capturing Svatove to the north.
Some pundits think Putin may be prioritising holding onto
the territory he has occupied in the south of Ukraine. That said, the Russians are rumoured to be hard pressed in
Kherson on the west side of the Dnieper river.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 220 – Summary
1st October (day 220)
Ukraine captures Lyman lying to the NE of Sloviansk; one
suspects many Russian soldiers are killed, but some units escape east to
Kreminna after blowing a bridge.
The Daily KOS website carries a harrowing report of the
carnage:
Click for Daily KOS report - American volunteer in Ukraine describes the
carnage on the highway from Lyman
30th September (day 219)
The world in peril
Putin announces the illegal annexation of the Ukrainian
regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia following sham
referendums.
Putin is doubling up. Poorly trained Russian conscripts
are pouring in to hold the occupied territories while trainloads of tanks
have been seen crossing the Kersch bridge from Russia into Crimea.
Putin's cronies call for the use of nuclear weapons. The
Russian submarine Belgorod armed with Poseidon nuclear torpedoes is said to
have left its base.
Meanwhile Russian forces are almost surrounded in a
pocket at Lyman.
Putin has boxed himself into a corner and commentators
are wondering what the rat will do next.
27th September (day 216)
Damage reported to the both the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to
Europe cutting off Russian gas. Sabotage suspected.
24th September (day 213)
Russian 'kamikaze' drones purchased from Iran are said to be making
a nuisance of themselves.
Some pundits think Putin has in mind to conscript more
than one
million soldiers and that 300,000 is just the first batch. However few in
Russia seem keen to take up arms and some are already fleeing the country.
If mobilisation goes badly Putin's generals will likely take the blame. For
example see
these two articles:-
Click for Guardian article - Putin needs nothing short of a miracle to avoid
a devastating defeat in Ukraine, 23rd September 2022
Click for Defense One article - Putin’s War, and His Rule, Are In Trouble,
23rd September 2022
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 212 – Summary
Ukraine is said to have captured Yatskivka to the east of
Izium on the eastern side of the Oskil river; two Russian jets are reported
shot-down near Lozove to the north.
There is little news from Kherson apart from a short
report by Stuart Ramsay of Sky News saying Ukraine has occupied the village
of Vsokopillya which lies between the Inhulets and Dnieper rivers.
Click for Sky News video - Stuart Ramsay visits liberated towns in Kherson
frontline
Note: repaired links to Military Land articles moved
from folder /Ukraine/ to /news/.
23rd September (day 212)
The situation in Ukraine is escalating. Russia has begun
it's illegal mock referendums in the occupied territories and the media is
working itself up into a frenzy about whether or not Putin might use nuclear
weapons if Ukraine continues to push back the Russian invaders.
Click for Daily Kos report - Voting proceeds at gunpoint in Russian
occupied Ukraine
Meanwhile the Ukrainians continue to nibble away at the
occupied territories in Kherson and the Donbas.
There are demonstrations in Russia against conscription.
Opinions differ about the extent to which the new Russian
conscripts might make a difference.
Click for ISW Russian Campaign Assessment 22nd September 2022
21st September (day 210)
It seems Putin has woken up to the fact Russia has begun
losing the war in Ukraine.
Putin announces partial mobilisation and the call-up of
300,000 Russian reservists; once again he threatens the use of nuclear
weapons.
President Biden denounces Putin's invasion of Ukraine at
the United Nations; Lavrov walks out; Russia has few friends other than
Belarus, Cuba, Syria, North Korea, Nicaragua and Eritrea.
Tobias Ellwood MP and ex Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon
argue in the Daily Telegraph that now Putin is cornered he could be at his
most dangerous. They say the war is far from over and it will get uglier;
thus strategic plans need to be made by Western Leaders to cover all
eventualities.
Click to read Tobias Ellwood's article on Twitter
20th September (day 209)
Putin announces that referendums would go ahead in
Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson with the aim of annexing those
regions of Ukraine into the Russian Federation; no doubt hoping to repeat
his trick to legalise the invasion of Crimea.
Pundits wonder if Putin would then say any attempt by
Ukraine to retake these territories would be an attack on Russia.
17th September (day 206)
Things seem to have quietened down a bit.
Pundits think the Russians may try to establish a new
defensive line between the Oskil river and Svatove in the NE to deter
Ukraine advancing on Luhansk.
Chinese support for Putin could be waning; they will not
want to be on the losing side.
In a programme named the Briefing Room BBC radio 4 hosted
a discussion:
Ukraine: Have we reached a turning point in the war?
You'll need to log into the BBC website to listen to
that.
It was agreed the momentum is turning in Ukraine's
favour. Lawrence Freedman thinks the war could be over sooner than most
people think.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) continues to
publish daily campaign assessments.
Click for ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16th 2022
There is emerging disquiet in Moscow; we venture a guess
that if the war continues in Ukraine's favour Putin is doomed.
15th September (day 204)
BBC Radio 5 reports the city of Izium, recently
recaptured from the Russians, is largely destroyed and that 1,000 bodies
have been found. President Zelensky is reported to have received minor
injuries in a car crash in Kiev.
Orla Guerin reports for the BBC from Balakliya near Izium. Her account
relates recent events and claims of torture:
Click for BBC report - Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas
Despite it's massive defeat in the Kharkiv region, Russia
has insisted that it will press on with its invasion until all the goals
that were originally set are achieved. Putin says he will continue to
destroy Ukrainian infrastructure.
In recent days there have been missile attacks on power
stations and a dam on the Inhulets river near Kryviyi Rih, causing flooding.
Click for Guardian article - Zelensky’s home town flooded after Russian
missile strikes hit dam.
Russia may be doing this to slow down any Ukrainian
advance in Kherson, and no doubt will be trying to stop Ukrainian troops
crossing the Oskil river in the north.
Click for Aljazeera report - Kyiv warns of attacks on energy system
Millions of civilians could suffer from lack of power
this winter as a result of Putin's war.
A BBC article warns the Russian Bear is still alive and
there is a lot more to do:
Click for BBC article: A successful surprise attack - but danger still looms
Meanwhile the Russian News Agency TASS website paints a
completely opposite picture of events.
There are whispers of disquiet in Russia about Putin's
leadership but so far he has managed to maintain control.
13th September (day 202)
In the past few days Ukraine has made large gains in the
Kharkiv region causing the Russians to withdraw. Izium and Kupiansk have
been captured restricting Russian lines of supply from Belgorod.
The defeats in Kharkiv and Izyum have forced Russian
soldiers to fall back and form a defensive line along the
Oskil
River.
Smaller gains have been made in the Kherson region to the
south.
Commentators suggest Ukrainian forces may now need to
rest before advancing further. There will be many more battles to fight
before this war is over.
Putin has responded by firing missiles at power stations
cutting off water and electricity supplies over a wide area.
Click for Guardian report - Russian strikes knock out power and water in
Ukraine’s Kharkiv region
There is speculation that once the extent of the Russian
defeat becomes known there will be calls for Putin to stand down.
There are rumours some Russian front-line units in
Kherson are negotiating a surrender.
Click for ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 12th September
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 200 – Summary
8th September (day 197)
There is a lot going on. The Ukrainian offensive is
gathering pace pushing back the Russians in some areas as villages and
ground are recaptured.
Twitter is alive with reports.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 197 – Summary
See also Daily Kos commentary on recent events:-
Click for Daily Kos article - Balakliya and Shevchenkove liberated on the
incredible drive to Kupyansk
We wonder if the morale of poorly trained Russian
conscripts will sufficiently collapse that many prefer to flee rather than
fight. If so the Ukrainian side could find itself having to accommodate and
feed a large number of Russian POWs.
6th September (day 195)
The Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region continues.
Because of a news' blackout little is being reported except that Ukraine is
making some progress.
There sounds a good chance Russian troops will
eventually either be forced to surrender or retreat to the east bank of the
Dnieper river.
Today there are reports Ukraine could be mounting another
counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region to the north.
It is rumoured that Germany has provided relatively
little help to Ukraine so far, but now is the time for Chancellor
Scholz to provide offensive weapons, such as tanks, to help turn
the tide.
Lawrence Freedman sums up the present situation:
Lawrence Freedman writes: The Economic War - Cutting off Europe's gas supply
is Putin's last throw of the dice
According to Freedman cutting of gas to Europe is Putin's
last throw of the dice. No doubt he will next seek a ceasefire hoping to
keep what territory he has gained. But if Ukraine is in the driving seat,
little hope of that one thinks.
Also see,
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 5th, by Institute for the
Study of War
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 194 – Summary
Mention is being made of Ukraine retaking Crimea.
If the morale of the Russian troops collapses, who knows what will
happen.
30th August (day 188)
Kherson region west of the Dnieper river
Details are sketchy but it seems Ukrainian forces are
making some progress, crossing in places the outermost ring of the Russian
defence. The western media speculates and possibly exagerates what is going
on. For example see this article which bangs the drum for Ukraine.
Click for Daily Kos article - Kherson counteroffensive off to a flying
start, and Russian city boils over in panic
President Zelensky said in a late-night address if they want to
survive, it’s time for the Russian military to run away and go home.
It will be interesting to see whether Russian soldiers
stand and fight or melt away.
Miles away to the north of Kharkiv civilians in the
Russian town of Belgorod are rumoured to be catching trains
to Moscow fearing possible attacks on nearby military depots.
29th August (day 187)
It appears Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive in Kherson.
28th August (day 186)
Continuing stalemate; no significant change in the
front-line reported during the last week.
Russians continue to shell Ukrainian positions.
It is rumoured Iran will supply Russia with Shahed
drones.
Pundits had been expecting a Ukrainian counter attack in
the Kherson region, but the opportunity for that seems to have passed since
Russian reinforcements were brought in.
A Battle of the Bridges is currently
taking place in the Kherson region with Ukraine continuing to damage the
Russian lines of communication across the Dnieper river, and the Russians
attempting to maintain them by using ferries and building pontoon bridges.
It would seem Ukraine either does not have weapons
powerful enough totally to bring down spans of the heavy concrete bridges or
lacks the ability to deliver them.
Ukraine is attempting to weaken the Russians, by
attacking command posts, logistics, and lines of communication, while
avoiding frontal assaults in order to limit casualties.
Despite the Russians losing a lot of tanks, rumours are
that Putin still has a plentiful supply of artillery and is attempting to
recruit more soldiers.
Concerns continue about safety at the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant. Putin has in principle agreed for inspectors to visit
but so far that has not happened. The UN nuclear watchdog, the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is trying to negotiate access to the plant for
the urgent inspection.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 184 – Summary
We wonder if the fighting will slacken as winter sets in
and whether the supply of winter clothing will become an issue.
24th August (day 182)
Ukraine Independence Day marking Ukraine breaking free
from Russia on 24th August 1991.
Six months since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24th
February 2022.
There were concerns Russia would launch a flood of
missiles but in the event there was only a missile attack on the railway
network at Chaplyne 110 Km west of of the city of Donetsk. Railway carriages
at the station were hit killing 25 and injuring 50.
19th August (day 177)
It seems to be a quieter day while both sides take stock.
Accounts by captured Russian soldiers are posted on
Twitter; it appears at least some are poorly fed and led.
The Daily Kos and Aljazeera report on yesterday's events:
Click for Daily Kos report - Another strike into Russia results in
a spectacular explosion at ammunition depot
Click for Aljazeera report - More blasts in Russian-held areas far from
Ukraine front lines
18th August (day 176)
More explosions and fires have been reported in the last 24 hours.
An ammunition depot in the Belgorod district of Russia NE
of Kharkiv is on fire and nearby the Russian villages of Timonovo and Soloti
have been evacuated.
To the north fires are reported at the Russian civilian
airfield at Stary Oskol where 25 or so military helicopters are parked.
In Kherson the railway track across the Dnieper river at
the Nova Kakihovka dam has been attacked once again with the aim of cutting
off support to 20,000 Russian soldiers west of the Dnieper river.
Perhaps as a gesture of goodwill they should be offered
the chance to either surrender or withdraw; their officers have allegedly
already moved their command posts to the other side of the river.
There are reports Belbeck airfield near Sebastopol in SW
Crimea was attacked. The day before Russian aircraft had flown east to
airfields in Russia.
Black smoke was observed near the holiday resort of
Mizhvodne in west Crimea, and Russian Air Defence activity was reported near
the Kerch bridge in SE Crimea.
Things seem to be hotting up.
17th August (day 175)
Comment
One has to wonder about Vladimir Putin's sanity. He has
lost tens of thousands of men killed plus another 100,000 or so maimed and
wounded; about 2,000 tanks; 4,000 armoured personnel carriers; 1,000
artillery pieces and 500 aircraft and helicopters - yet he persists to
attack Ukraine.
For a limited Special Military Operation that's an
extraordinary cost.
Putin can be likened to a gambler, always doubling up,
despite his losses, building up debts hoping one day he will be a winner;
either by capturing and holding Kherson and the whole of the Donbas, or
better still conquering the whole of Ukraine.
Events
Yesterday's news was about the explosions at a Russian
ammunition dump alongside the railway line near Azovske in NE Crimea. There was
also an explosion at a nearby electricity sub station close to Dzhankhoi.
Both these events may have damaged the railway and could slow the transit of
munitions from Russia through Crimea, via the Kerch bridge, and into Kherson.
The Kerch bridge is a large structure and it's possible
Ukraine does not have the assets to 'close it' at the moment.
Further south an explosion and black smoke were reported
at a military air-base near the village of Gvardiyske in the Simferopol
district of Russian occupied Crimea; possibly a minor incident. Damage was
also rumoured to Russian warehouses at Rodakovo in Luhansk province, while
the Russian headquarters in Lysychansk was said to have been destroyed with
possibly large loss of life.
The Guardian newspaper reports a Ukrainian spokesman
confirming Russian supply lines are being targeted.
Click for Guardian story - Ukraine aiming to create chaos within Russian
forces, Zelensky adviser says, 16th August
Pundits seem to think there may likely be no major
counter-offensive in Kherson but rather accelerated attacks on Russian lines
of communication and command posts during the autumn and winter. Perhaps
making life so uncomfortable for troops on the west side of the Dnieper
river that they either surrender or withdraw.
Yesterday, the Daily Kos website reported on the
explosions in Crimea:
Click for Daily Kos report - More explosions in Crimea as 'secret weapon'
strikes again
A Ukrainian spokesman suggests the attacks were by
local 'sympathisers' leaving the Russians to ponder whether Partisans or
Special Operations Forces might have been involved.
Today, Jomini of the West posted a roundup of the last
fortnight on
Twitter.
Alistair Bunkall Sky News reported from the city of
Russian-occupied Kherson:
Click for Sky News report - Insolence of Russian troops in Kherson
appears to confirm officers have fled, source says. 17th August 2022
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 174 – Summary
14th August (day 172)
It's Sunday and once again we pray that people of
goodwill will seek an early end to bloodshed in Ukraine.
Reports on Twitter suggest there has been little change
to front-lines in the last few days.
Ukraine continues to attack Russian lines of
communication with a view to weakening morale and the supply of munitions.
For example see update from Daily Kos:
Click for Daily Kos update - Russian leadership reportedly retreats from
Kherson as bridges are blown
A BBC story talks about the role partisans play in
intelligence gathering:
Click for BBC story - Ukraine's shadow army resisting Russian occupation
29th July 2022
It looks like a continuing war of attrition with Russia
having the larger force, but Ukraine compensating by being tactically more
agile.
The BBC quotes
General Sir James Hockenhull saying it is unrealistic to expect a
decisive shift in Kherson in the coming months. He says he understands
Ukraine's desire to retake territory, but adds that while there will be
counter-attacks and counter-offensives, he does not believe there will be
decisive action taken this year by either side. His expectation is for a
long conflict.
Meanwhile the Russian Federation is suffering
reputational damage, sanctions will no doubt hurt more as time goes on, and
should the supply and choice of goods on supermarket shelves start
shrinking perhaps the Russian public might begin to think more seriously
about calling for Putin to go and an end to the war in Ukraine.
10th August (day 168)
More speculation about the cause of the explosions at the
Novofedorivka, Saky, military airbase but no answers. Considerable damage
seems to have occurred.
There are rumours of attacks on Russian Air Defences near
Nova Kakhovka which lies 60 Km to the northeast of the City
of Kherson. The strategic importance of the town is that here is a dam
providing hydroelectric power and road access across the river Dnieper.
The road across the dam and the
Antonivskyi bridge east of the city of Kherson are the only two major
lines of communication for Russian troops on the west side of the Dnieper
river.
More about the bridges can be found on the BVC News
website.
Click for BVC News article - The bridge at Nova Kakhovka and the bridge at
Kherson
Note: we have been unable to discover who owns BVC
News; do you know?
There is speculation Putin wants to redirect the ouput of
the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to Crimea.
The BBC reports President Zelensky saying 'The war in
Ukraine began with Crimea and must end with its liberation'.
Click for BBC article: Ukraine war must end with liberation of Crimea –
Zelensky
The article goes on to say that 'there are fears that if
the Ukrainians begin systematically attacking Russian targets inside Crimea,
then the Russian response could be very serious indeed' - translation, Putin
might use Tactical Nuclear Weapons.
Hint: many of the Ukraine war maps on Twitter are too
small to read. Came across a tip to right click and open the image in
a new tab which makes it bigger; then clicking on the map can make it bigger
still. This works on Windows 10 Desktop PC and makes 'Jomini of the West'
weekly situation reports legible.
9th August (day 167)
Some excitement on Twitter today as ammunition stores at
the Russian Novofedorivka, Saky, military airbase on the
south coast of Crimea exploded. This happened only a few miles away from
holiday beaches where tourists felt the shockwave and filmed smoke rising in
the sky.
Click for BBC report - Blasts rock Russian airbase in annexed Crimea
The Daily Kos website reports on more aid for Ukraine
from the US and the strike on Novofedorivka.
Click for Daily Kos update - More US aid headed Ukraine's way; Ukraine
strikes Russian airfield deep in Crimea
Of course Russia claims the detonations were an accident, while Ukraine does
not officially admit to an attack. Some suggest a new ballistic missile may
have been used; others
speculate whether Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles, which allegedly have a
range of up to 300 Km, could have been involved, while others suggest
sabotage by either partisans or Special Forces. The bottom line is no-one in
the public domain knows how the detonations were caused.
The US says HIMARS ammunition supplied to Ukraine only
has a range of about 70 Km, far too little to hit Crimea.
There have been calls for a UN peacekeeping force
and inspectors to protect the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant.
Yesterday there were reports of Russian ammunition stores
exploding in the Kherson region near Partyzany and Novooleksiivka
settlements. See
Special Kherson Cat Twitter for location.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 166 – Summary
8th August (day 166)
The Daily Kos website has an update on the situation in
the Kherson region where it is claimed Russian soldiers are being led into a
trap on the west side of the Dnieper river.
Click for Daily Kos update: As Ukraine hits Kherson bridges, a surprise
missile makes its exciting combat debut
The missile referred to is the US air launched AGM-88
HARM anti-radar missile, reported by Russian sources. It is uncertain
whether Ukraine either has these or aircraft equipped to launch them.
Note the US confirms it has supplied these missiles - presumably some
'lash-up' has been devised for launching them from Ukrainian aircraft.
According to Ukrainian Pravda, Russian Major General
Valerii Vasyliev, who now commands the garrison at the Zaporizhzhia
Nuclear Power Plant, chillingly told his soldiers that 'there will
be either Russian land or a scorched desert here'.
He has mined and is threatening to blow up the Nuclear
Power Plant, which is said to be the largest nuclear facility in Europe.
There are now urgent calls
for the UN to send in a peace keeping force and inspectors to the
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was interviewed by Sky News
about the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and prospects
for pushing the Russians out of Kherson.
Click for Sky News report - Former Ukraine president warns of Zaporizhzhia
'catastrophe'
Poroshenko said confidently Ukraine had the will and
could do the job if given enough artillery, ammunition, air defences and
aircraft.
The US announced a further $1Bn package of aid for Ukraine.
More bulk carriers are reported to have left the Odessa region carrying
grain.
6th August (day 164)
General situation
On the face of it front-lines are little changed. Russia
is pouring reinforcements into Kherson to defend against the rumoured
Ukrainian summer counter-offensive. Some pundits wonder if Ukraine can now
make much headway while others speculate Russia could make a counter-push
towards Mikolaiv.
Others wonder whether talk of an offensive in Kherson is
a deception to draw Russian forces away from the east and north-east.
Meanwhile small groups of Ukrainian soldiers are said to
be harrying Russian troops and attacking lines of communication, and
ammunition dumps in Kherson, for example using HIMARS.
There is speculation the war is about to enter a new
phase with the heaviest fighting shifting to a 350km front line stretching
from Zaporizhzhya to Kherson, following the course of the Dnieper River.
Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and
Defence Council, called for patience with regard to the counteroffensive by
the Armed Forces of Ukraine, saying it is the military, headed by the
Commander-in-Chief, and not 'armchair' experts, who will determine the
timing.
So we are very much left in the dark as to what exactly
is going on, and can only wait and see how the situation develops in coming
weeks.
There are rumours of a small explosion on a Russian
patrol boat near Sebastopol.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 164 – Summary
Grain exports
The Bulk Carrier Razoni made it to Turkey and should
dock in the Lebanon in a day or two. Three more bulk carriers either have
left or are about to leave the ports of Odessa and Chornomorsk (which lies
10 Km south of Odessa).
According to the Belfast Telegraph, the Turkish-flagged Polarnet,
carrying 12,000 tons of corn, left the port of Chornomorsk bound for Karasu,
Turkey. The Panama-flagged Navi Star left Odessa for
Ireland with 33,000 tons of corn. The Maltese-flagged Rojen
left Chornomorsk for the UK carrying over 13,000 tons of corn.
The Barbados-flagged Fulmar S was inspected in Istanbul and
is inward bound for the port of Chornomorsk.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
There are grave concerns about safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power
Plant, near Enerhodar, which is occupied by Russian forces. From there
Russian artillery is said to have been shelling Nikopol across the Dnieper
river.
Putin has been laying waste to Ukraine. There are rumours the Russians have
mined the power plant and might destroy it if forced to retire thus denying
heat to swathes of the population during the coming winter or even worse
causing radioctive contamination over a large area.
Click for Pravda report - Radiation emission risk: Russian troops seriously
damage nitrogen-oxygen unit at Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Click for International Atomic Energy Authority - Director General Statement
on Situation in Ukraine
1st August (day 159)
The Daily Kos website seems to be a useful source of
information about the war in Ukraine, though some of its sources may be
painting a slightly rosy picture of events.
Click for Daily Kos update -
Ukraine
Invasion Day 159: Belarus urges surrender, because it did to Russia
Belarus
President Lukashenko is Putin's puppet, but he is not generally well liked in Belarus.
If Ukraine survives Putin's war, Belarus could well begin looking to the West, and
Putin would not like that.
The MilitaryLand website talks about the
Russians attacking with overwhelming force near Bakhmut. Quote:
Ukrainian troops are unable to hold off overwhelming
Russian forces in the area of Bakhmut. The enemy is slowly, but surely
advancing towards Bakhmut from the southern and eastern direction.
Maybe that's a bit strong, but perhaps it's true.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 158 – Summary
Grain exports
Today the Bulk Carrier Razoni left Odessa with 26,000
tons of corn bound for Lebanon. Ukraine says 16 more vessels with 600,000 tons of
grain are waiting to depart, should the first shipment be successful.
Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said the vessel would anchor off
Istanbul on Tuesday afternoon and be inspected by a joint team of Russian,
Ukrainian, United Nations and Turkish representatives; it will then continue
as long as no problems arise.
Speculation
Making parallels with WWII one might say:
- President Vladimir Putin mirrors dictator Adolf Hitler.
- Defence of Kiev mirrors the Battle of Britain.
- The evacuation of troops from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk mirrors
Dunkirk.
- The recent killing of Ukrainian POWs mirrors the Malmedy massacre of
US POWs by the Waffen SS and could stiffen Ukrainian resolve.
- The taking of Kherson west of the Dnieper river could be the turning
point that was El Alamein.
- Crossing the Dnieper river and retaking Melitopol, Berdyansk, and
Mariupol would be a hard slog and equate to D Day and the subsequent
vicious battle for
Normandy.
The point being - Ukraine needs a significant victory to
show the West it can push the Russians back in order to guarantee further
aid during the forthcoming winter which is likely to be economically
difficult for European nations. It ideally needs an 'El Alamein'
moment before the end of September.
31st July (day 158)
Comment
It's Sunday once again and another week has gone by. It
would seem from media reports that there has been little change in front
lines. Russia is said to have advanced a little in the Donetsk region and
systematically continues to destroy Ukrainian cities with missile attacks.
The BBC reports a particularly heavy bombardment of Mikolaiv this morning;
during which one of Ukraine's richest men, grain tycoon Oleksiy Vadatursky
aged 74 years, perished along with his wife after a missile struck their
home.
The war is said to be in a transitional phase while both
sides regroup.
For more information see Daily Kos report below.
Grain exports
Both sides signed an agreement on 22nd July to export grain and
fertiliser, which the Washington Post says runs for 120 days and could be
renewed for further periods of 120 days.
The Russians presumably want to sell the grain they have
stolen from Ukraine and export their fertiliser; once that's done the
agreement could well lapse.
Ukrainian ships loaded with grain are said to be ready to
leave port and one wonders how far they will get without hitting a mine.
We imagine the Russians will be monitoring safe routes
for their
amphibious forces, and considering the use of returning empty cargo ships as
Trojan Horses in order to attack the port of Odessa.
Letters from Ukraine
These letters by
Lyndsey Hilsum, Channel 4 News, describe what it was like to have been
in Kiev between March and May 2022.
Click for 'Letters from Ukraine' article by Lyndsey Hilsum
News
Ukraine once again speculates whether Putin will launch
another attack from Belarus. Certainly missiles continue to be fired from
there, but perhaps forces in this region are reserves supplying the campaign
around Kharkiv and Izium?
President Zelensky orders the withdrawal of civilians
from the Donetsk region, where there is heavy fighting, to minimise loss of
life. Russian forces capturing power stations and cutting off supplies of
gas could also have something to do with this decision.
Putin continues to restrict the supply of gas to the
West, which has resulted in energy prices shooting up to unaffordable
levels. No doubt he thinks, once winter comes, support for Ukraine will
shrink as people shiver in their homes.
Little is being said in the British press about the
escalating costs of energy on businesses. We could be entering desperate
times. Boris Johnson may yet thank his lucky stars that MPs removed him when
they did.
Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are still vying to become Prime
Minister, with Liz Truss looking most likely to win at the moment.
There have been reports of the bombing of a warehouse in
Olehnivka where Ukrainian POWs were being held, with each side blaming the
other.
Click for BBC Ukraine round-up: Deadly attack on prisoners of war
There are allegations of a Ukrainian POW being tortured,
castrated and killed. For example see this article in the New York Post:-
Click
for NYPost article - sickening video shows gagged Ukrainian POW being
castrated
An update on the situation in Ukraine can be found on the
Daily Cos website:-
Click for Daily Kos update: Russia reportedly pulls forces from occupied
towns to rush troops to Kherson
What next
For weeks pundits have been suggesting a Ukrainian
offensive to isolate the Russian 49th Combined Arms Army and capture Kherson
up to the West bank of the Dnieper river.
To counter this Russia has been moving battle groups from the
Donbas to defend Kherson. Convoys have been seen crossing the
Kerch
Bridge from Russia into
Crimea. One would think a tempting target, but it's about 400Km and Ukraine
would need appropriate missiles.
Ukraine has been interdicting Russian lines of supply
nearer home, for
example using HIMARS.
Russia is attempting to repair the damaged Antonivskyi
bridge across the Dnieper and has put in place a ferry service.
Pundits are suggesting it is the time for the Ukrainian
offensive in Kherson to begin in earnest, before:
The question people are asking is - does Ukraine have
enough experienced soldiers and the command and control necessary for
coordinating a large scale assault in Kherson after losses in the Donbas?
29th July (day 156)
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 156 – Summary
27th July (day 154)
The
Antonivskyi bridge in Kherson is further damaged. The Daily Kos website
has an article suggesting Russia won't be able to advance much further
towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and that Russian troops in Kherson west of
the Dnieper river will soon find themselves in a tight spot, cut off from
supplies and in range of Ukrainian artillery.
Click for Daily Kos update: Russia is seemingly recalibrating around Izyum;
Kherson's bridges are falling down, 27th July 2022
26th July (day 153)
Russia is reported to be intensifying its attacks and
making small gains in the Donbas region.
Ukraine continues the news embargo on fighting near
Kherson on the west side of the river Dnieper in the south; the Russians are
rumoured to be bringing in more artillery on the east side of the river.
It's possible Ukraine may capture the city of
Kherson, but do they have the capability to push further east across the
river towards Melitopol and Crimea?
Actually no idea what is going on. The Twitter-sphere is
alive with Western pundits suggesting things will now turn in Ukraine's
favour, but that could be wishful thinking.
Jack Detsch has published an interesting article on the
Foreign Policy website, an American news publication. This
suggests that, unless stopped, Putin could be back next
year to capture Odessa and the Black Sea coastline thus
linking up Russia with the enclave of Transnistria which supports Russia
within neutral Moldova.
Click for FP report - Russia Has Its Sights on Odessa 20th July 2022
25th July (day 152)
ISW report that recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian
warehouses, communication hubs, and rear bases are having a devastating and
potentially irreversible impact on the development of future Russian
offensives.
Russian missile attacks continue but shelling is lighter.
Ukraine continues to nibble away at Russian forces in
Kherson west of the Dnieper river. Attacks on bridges across the river
Dnieper and it's tributary the Ingulet (Inhulet) are aimed at cutting their
supply lines. If large numbers of Russian troops are forced to surrender
what will Ukraine do with them?
What would Putin do faced with defeat; would he for
example withdraw his forces or double down by resorting to tactical nuclear
weapons?
Read some views on The Atlantic website:-
WHAT IF RUSSIA USES NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE?
A look at the grim scenarios—and the US playbook for
each by Eric Schlosser 20th June 2022.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 152 – Summary
24th July (day 151)
It's Sunday marking 5 months since the start of the war
when Kiev was expected to be captured within days. Many then thought Ukraine
was doomed, but its people have held out and one wonders if the tide has
begun to turn against the Russian invaders.
Click for ISW - RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, JULY 24
23rd July (day150)
Russia fires four missiles into the port of Odessa
hitting a cargo ship.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 150 – Summary
22nd July (day 149)
Ukraine and Russia separately sign a deal with the UN and
Turkey to allow the export of grain and fertiliser.
21st July (day 148)
Today's Daily Kos optimistically speculates on Ukraine's
strategy in the Kherson region.
Click for Daily Kos article - Ukraine's upcoming strategy is starting to
take shape, look to the southeast
Russian forces are said to be creeping towards the
Vuhlehirska coal-fired power station north of the city of Donetsk on the
edge of the battlefront.
The CIA say there is no evidence Putin is in poor health.
It is rumoured the US might (in time) supply A-10
'tank-killer' aircraft to Ukraine.
Here's a transcript of a press statement from the US
Department of Defense yesterday:
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff Army General Mark A. Milley Hold a Press Conference 20th July 2022
20th July (day 147)
For the time being the UK media has largely forgotten
about the war in Ukraine with the Tory party leadership election, the
heat-wave and sport grabbing the headlines.
Not much seems to have happening in the last week other
than both sides firing missiles at each other, the Russians mostly hitting
apartment blocks and killing civilians, and Ukrainians hitting ammunition
depots, radars and bridges.
There may be a lot of fighting but little shift in front-lines.
There is talk in the media of Russia annexing the
captured territories but that won't happen if Ukraine recaptures them; but
will Ukraine want to recapture districts in the Donbas largely occupied by
the separatists?
Russia talks a lot of bullshit such as attacking annexed
territory will be attacking Moscow.
An article on the Daily Kos website suggests the Russian
campaign could 'fall apart' in August but who knows. This may be wishful
thinking but it's worth a read:-
Click for Daily Kos article - July has been very bad for Russia. August is
going to be catastrophic, just as General Hodges said
The Defence Industry of Ukraine claims the destruction of
a Russian mobile radar station near the village of Lazurne, on the south
coast of the Kherson region east of the Dnieper river. That's quite a long
way from the front-line so we wonder how that was achieved
Click for article - Russian Podlet-K1 radar neutralized in Kherson region
Grain exports through the Black sea could be opened up
but Putin will want a quid pro quo, so that's unlikely to happen.
Zelensky is said to be attempting to weed out Putin
supporters from Ukrainian security bodies.
19th July (day 146)
On 14th December 1939 the USSR was expelled from the
League of Nations for invading Finland. Its a pity that no-one has found the
means to expel the Russian Federation from the United Nations.
Wonder what is happening in Belarus on the northern
border of Ukraine where troops have been exercising near the border and from
where Russians continue to fire missiles into Ukraine.
Click for France24 article - Will Belarus join Moscow's Ukraine offensive?
Opinion seems to be that Lukashenka will continue to sit
on the fence.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 146 – Summary
18th July (day 145)
Putin is said to have instructed his forces to focus
on destroying US long-range artillery in Ukraine such as HIMARS. General
Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, gave the order shortly after US
HIMARS were reported to have blown up another ammunition depot in
Russian-occupied Kherson.
Well war is a partly a question of who has the greater
industrial capacity so if the West continues to maintain its resolve and
resupply Ukraine Putin should eventually be ground down.
One wonder wonders if Partisans and Guerilla warfare will
play a significant part in those regions where the Russians are not wanted.
Perhaps not in the Donbas were separatists want to become part of the
Russian Federation; but could disrupting actions by Partisans significantly
hinder the Russians in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia prior to
Ukraine mounting an Autumn counter-offensive in the south east?
As usual we will just have to wait and see.
17th July (day 144)
It's Sunday once again, and we are reminded it's the
eighth anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 flight
MH17 over Donetsk in 2014 by a Russian surface to air missile, which killed
all 298 men, women and children onboard.
Click
for Wikipedia article - Malaysia Airlines Flight 17
It's another in a long list of crimes for which Putin denies
responsibility.
There is chat on Twitter suggesting the Russians would
like to capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk next, whilst Ukraine might be
planning to retake the Kherson region west of the river Dnieper. It's
uncertain whether Ukraine could mount a major counter-offensive as that
would depend on delivery of more tanks, APCs and HIMARS from the West.
Pundits suggest a counter-offensive is unlikely before September/October
2022; until then Ukraine would attempt to hold the line and cut off Russian
lines off communication.
A Daily Kos
article suggests the Russians have not taken Siversk and Bilohorivka
could still be contested.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 144 – Summary
16th July (day 143)
Have been missing situation reports from Jomini of the
West - apparently he has had a bad bout of COVID but hopes to be reporting
again soon.
On 7th July the media reported Putin as saying
the war has barely begun in Ukraine. Putin's policy seems to be to
destroy the morale of the population, destroy Ukraine's infrastructure and
steal as much land as possible.
Presumably he is going to carry on until he runs out of
soldiers and weapons.
Spies could be playing a significant role in this war, on
both sides. Russia is said to recruiting agents to report the movement of
materials from the West.
Click for Ukrainian Pravda article - Russia is trying to trace the routes by
which Ukraine receives weapons from Europe - Intelligence Service
HIMARS artillery has been destroying Russian ammunition
depots and command posts so Putin's men will be looking for them.
Click for Daily Kos article - Russian sources are not loving HIMARS as much
as we are
Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu is said to have
ordered units to step up operations to prevent strikes on Russian-controlled
areas. See the two links below:
Click for Radio Free Europe article - Russia Orders Troops to Intensify
Attacks as Missiles, and Shelling Blast Ukrainian Cities
Click for Reuters report - Russia says it will ramp up operations as rockets
pound Ukraine
A missile attack on Dnipro destroyed a Space Rocket facility.
Click for BBC report - Missile strike on Ukraine space plant in Dnipro kills
three
There were also missile attacks on Nikopol which lies on the opposite side
of the Dnipro river to the nuclear power plant where Russia is said to have
emplaced artillery.
15th July (day 142)
Hard to know what is happening. Shelling by Russians may
have dipped a little but missile attacks on residential areas and factories
are increasing. Possibly Russia has ended its operational pause.
British aid worker Paul Urey, who suffered from Diabetes,
has died in Russian captivity.
Click for Aljazeera report - UK summons Russian ambassador over death of aid
worker in Ukraine
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 142 – Summary
14th July (day 141)
Fighting goes on with the Russians continuing to fire
missiles into residential areas of cities causing civilian casualties. No
significant changes in position have been reported in recent days.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 140 – Summary
There is a danger of this turning into a long drawn out
conflict. It sounds like more heavy weapons will be needed if Ukrainian
forces are to dislodge the Russians from well defended positions and bring
the war to a conclusion before the end of the year.
There are rumours the Turks have negogiated an agreement
to allow the export of Ukrainian grain by sea.
The media reports Putin is trying to secure the delivery
of more drones from Iran.
See France 24 report - Russia seeks Iran drones after losses in Ukraine
9th July (day 136)
Attacks on Russian ammunition depots have increased in
recent days. For example see this report from Daily Kos:-
Russian logistics back to playing a central role
A Russian warehouse in Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson
region has been attacked.
The HIMARS Multiple Rocket Launcher System is said to be
playing a part. The US is to increase the number to be supplied to 12..
More important is getting sufficient missiles. These are
very expensive, around £100,000 per shot.
Russia says they have destroyed 2 HIMARS launchers, but
that has not been confirmed.
Newspapers say Ukraine is having increasing difficulty
flying drones due to jamming, and the danger of being shot down following
detection by Russian radars.
Communications on the battlefield is said to remain a
problem. Not sure how it works but Elon Musk's
Starlink
is said to be making a useful contribution.
8th July (day 135)
Apart from continuing missile strikes there seems to have
been a lull in the fighting in recent days. The Russians
are said to be regrouping and bringing in reinforcements in elderly MT-LB
Armoured Personnel Carriers drawn from reserves.
Click for
information on MT-LB APC
Lavrov was largely shunned at the G20 meeting in Bali,
but in the sidelines had bilateral meetings with the foreign ministers of
non-aligned countries Brazil, China, Indonesia, India, Turkey, South Africa,
Argentina and others.
See New York Post article:
Vladimir Putin lackey Sergey Lavrov storms out of G20 after photo snub
Also Guardian report:
Lavrov walks out of G20 talks after denying Russia is causing food crisis
Putin and Lavrov dare NATO to fight in Ukraine.
7th July (day 134)
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 134 – Summary
6th July (day 133)
We wait to see what happens next; will Ukraine be able to
hold Sloviansk and then turn the tables on Putin?
Click for Daily Kos update - slow rates of advance and massive artillery
exchanges
A disturbing Sky News report from Alex Crawford suggests
many Ukrainian solders still lack modern weapons despite aid from the West.
5th July (day 132)
It is rumoured Ukkraine has withdrawn to a defensive line roughly running
from Sloviansk to Bakhmut.
A Daily Kos article speculates about the high cost and
likely role of HIMARS multiple rocket launchers.
Click for Daily Kos update - HIMARS has an even longer range
4th July (day 131)
Russia has taken the city of Lysychansk but Sky News
reports Putin has ordered his troops to continue pushing forwards; clearly
Putin's ambition is to take as much of Ukraine as he can.
A Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region could be underway.
A Daily Kos article highlights the importance of
liberating the cities of Berdiansk, Kherson, Mariupol, and Melitopol, and
reopening ports to merchant shipping.
Click for Daily Kos article: whoever controls the South, controls Ukraine's
economic destiny
The industrial Donbas, largely occupied by separatists,
is now a pile of rubble and of lesser value.
Ukrainian Pravda reports on the current fighting:
Click for Pravda report: Russian troops force crossing over Siverskyi Donets
river, consolidate positions near Bilohorivka – General Staff report
A Russian ammunition depot has exploded in occupied
Snizhne which lies 50 miles east of the city of Donetsk near the Russian
border.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 130 – Summary
The next MilitaryLand update is expected on 7th July.
3rd July (day 130)
Both sides now think they can win this war. The West
can't afford to let Putin win and Putin can't afford to lose. Whatever
happens it's possible by the time Putin is finished much of Ukraine
could be little more than a pile of rubble with a significant part of its
infrastructure destroyed.
Ukraine confirms withdrawal from Lysychansk; most of the
city has been pounded into rubble. Now MLRS attacks and heavy shelling of
Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut which are presumably Russia's next
objective.
There is a Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian base
near Melitopol. Little is being reported about Ukrainian operations in the
Kherson region for security reasons.
2nd July (day 129)
Russian soldiers reported in the centre of the city of Lysychansk.
Russian ammunition depot in Popasna destroyed.
Australian Prime Minister visits Ukraine.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 128 – Summary
The next MilitaryLand update is expected on 7th July.
1st July (day 128)
Comment
Pundits seem to think that Ukraine may soon be able to
halt the Russian advance but are doubtful it will be possible to push the
Russians back to the 24th February start line this year, if ever.
30th June (day 127)
Russia withdraws from Snake Island which has been repeatedly attacked by
Ukraine.
Click for
latest Daily Kos Ukraine news stories
Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden hold news'
conferences following the NATO Summit in Madrid expressing support for
Ukraine and describing how NATO will adapt to meet new threats.
Click for Boris Johnson's news conference
Starts at 33 minutes
Click for President Joe Biden's news conference
Starts at 44 minutes.
29th June (day 126)
Alex Crawford, Sky News, reports from the front line in Lysychansk.
Click to watch video - Alex Crawford reports from Lysychansk as Russian
troops close in on city
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 126 – Summary
Comment
Donald Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton was interviewed
by ITV News political editor Robert Peston (Series 8 Episode 22).
While most Western Observers on Twitter suggest Russia is losing, John
Bolton said, in terms of gaining territory, Putin is clearly winning,
despite heavy losses of men and equipment.
In a similar fashion in 1982 Margaret Thatcher had claimed a great victory
in the Falklands despite considerable damage to and
loss of warships.
Rhetoric has been ramped up; delivery of weapon systems has yet to meet
expectations.
28th June (day 125)
There is talk of the US buying the Norwegian Advanced
Surface to Air Missile System
NASAMS
for Ukraine in order to better protect cities. This is a short to medium
range networked air defence system rumoured to be used to defend the White
House.
Click for ABC News report - US to purchase advanced missile system for
Ukraine's defense
Lithuania hit by Cyber attacks.
Click for
latest Daily Kos Ukraine news stories
27th June (day 124)
There have been several successful attacks on Russian
ammunition dumps in recent days which might be reflected in reduced shelling. Nevertheless many long range rockets and cruise missiles
continue to be fired from outside Ukraine, only a few of which are brought
down by air defences.
Russian troops continue to advance and are beginning to
encircle Lysychansk, so Ukrainian soldiers may be forced to withdraw. In the
north fighting continues near Kharkhiv. In the South Ukrainian forces press
the Russians back a little.
Russian Kh-22 anti-ship missile hits a shopping centre in
Kremenchuck which burnt to the ground. The strike killed at least 18 people,
59 more are wounded and 36 missing. It's possible the target was a factory
nearby.
President Zelensky says he hopes the war will be over
before the winter when fighting conditions will become difficult for both
sides.
The G7 meeting in Bavaria expressed continued support for
Ukraine.
NATO is to increase its Rapid Reaction Force from 40,000
to 300,000 to counter the new threat from the Russian Federation.
A NATO meeting starts in Spain tomorrow.
The UK Defence Secretary to discuss increasing the
Defence budget with the PM.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 124 – Summary
26th June (day 123)
It's Sunday and another week has rolled by with the
Russians continuing to make advances around Severodonetsk. Putin continues
to utter threats and Lukashenko says restricting access to Kaliningrad is
akin to declaring war.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 122 – Summary
Ukraine seems to have had some success attacking supply hubs and probing
in Kherson. For example see Daily Kos update:-
Click for Daily Kos update - Russia's supply and command and control hubs no
longer safe
Radio 5 interview
The Radio 5 Sunday Breakfast programme included an
interview with Ukrainian MP Kyra Rudyk who is currently in Lithuania:-
Four missiles are reported to have hit Kiev today; others
were brough down by air-defences. Many missiles have been fired at Ukraine
recently which are likely Putin's revenge for the EC considering Ukraine's
application to join the EU.
Following missiles being fired from Belarus, Belarus is
no longer considered a friendly neighbour.
In Kyra's view EU sanctions won't be effective until 2023
and only then if the EU places an embargo on Russian gas. The EU will likely
continue to fund Russia and therefore the war in Ukraine for the remainder
of 2022.
The turning point in the war will only come when the West
supplies Ukraine with enough heavy weapons, which could be many months away.
Currently only 10% of weapons requested have been supplied.
Ukraine will also need financial assistance.
25th June (day 122)
Russians fire about 48 missiles into Ukraine hitting
military facilities; some missiles are fired from Belarus, others from the
Baltic Sea. Targets hit include not only areas in the east but also Lviv,
Zhytomyr and Khmelnytskyi in the west.
Ukraine Intelligence suspects Putin wants to bring
Belarus into the war. On the other hand there are reports of large stocks of
shells being transferred from Belarus' arsenals to Russia.
Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from Severodonetsk across
the Siversky Donets river using small boats.
It's unclear whether the Ukranian troops which were in danger of
being encircled have withdrawn from the Zolote pocket a little to the south.
These troops may now be redeploying to defend Lysychansk.
Click for Institute for the Study of War Russian offensive
Campaign assessment June 26th
and look for Key Takeaways.
Click for Daily Kos update - the Ukraine quits Severodonetsk
We came across some atmospheric snaps of scenes and
soldiers by Australian war photographer Bryce Wilson:-
Click for Bryce Photography website
24th June (day 121)
Talk of Ukraine troops withdrawing from Severodonetsk and
Lysychansk due to creeping Russian advance.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 120 – Summary
Alternatively click for Institute for the Study of War Russian offensive
Campaign assessment June 23rd
Comment
The arrival of a few HIMARS Multiple Rocket Launcher
Systems may help Ukraine a little providing they can keep them safe.
In the east Russian air defences are said to be making it
hard for Ukraine to fly drones and thus direct artillery fire.
Support from the UK could be diminished if Conservative
Party rebels unseat Boris Johnson.
Russia has been cutting off gas to NATO countries, and we
have yet to see what the implications will be, for example next winter.
Lithuania is blockading the railway to (Russian)
Kaliningrad; the EU is waiting to see if Putin escalates.
Belarus forces are exercising on the border of north
Ukraine. Putin is allegedly sending in units to cause trouble and then blame
Ukraine. The President of Belarus is in a difficult position - he wants to
support Putin but the population does not.
Russia is still blocking access to the Black Sea and
cereal exports. Shortages of sunflower oil, wheat, animal feeds and
fertilizers are pushing up prices and consequently food prices in the shops.
Shortages are likely to cause famine in third world countries.
Russia may soon capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk
which some thought Putin wanted achieved by the G7 meeting on 26th June. The
question then will be - what will Putin do next; will he consolidate his
gains and stick or try to gain further territory.
One of Putin's aims had been to secure the water supply
to Crimea from Ukraine.
Russia has also captured valuable agricultural land, coal and
iron, and ports. Ukraine doesn't seem to be in the mood to negotiate. Their
position appears to be to weaken the Russian military and then hopefully
push them back. There could be a lot more bloodshed before this war
ends.
23rd June (day 120)
Ukraine reports first High Mobility Artillery Rocket
System (HIMARS) in operation. It will be interesting to see how long these
survive. Pundits suggest artillery has to move within minutes to avoid
counter-fire.
Russian forces said to be concentrated around
Severodonetsk, leaving other areas less well defended.
22nd June (day 119)
Russian troops have captured Toshkivka and are advancing
north alongside the west bank of the Siversky Donets river towards Bila Hora
and Lysychansk.
The city of Lysychansk is being progressively destroyed
by Russian shelling and attempts are being made to evacuate 8,000 or so
remaining civilians.
Ukrainian troops are withdrawing to prevent encirclement.
In the south, Ukraine mounts attacks on Snake Island
destroying a SAM system and other equipment.
A Ukrainian drone is reported to have damaged the Russian
Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in the Rostov region bordering Ukraine.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 118 – Summary
21st June (day 118)
Lithuania implements EU restrictions on goods headed for
Russia affecting the rail link between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad is a small region sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania,
which provides an operating base for the Russian Navy in the Baltic.
Putin threatens retaliatory measures.
20th June (day 117)
No entry
19th June (day 116)
It is both Sunday and Fathers' Day in the UK and one wonders how many children in
Ukraine have sadly lost their fathers as a result of Putin's invasion.
Stories about the war in Ukraine can be found on the
DAILY KOS website; for example see this article about the supply of
logistics to Ukraine:-
Click for DAILY KOS article - Ukraine pleads poverty, more on logistics, and
Putin suffers diplomatically
The article says aid is getting through - it just takes
time.
For maps and a situational update click the link below:-
MilitaryLand Invasion Day 114 – Summary
Comment
The BBC reports NATO's Secretary General, Jens
Stoltenberg, speaking after a meeting with the alliance's defence ministers on 16 June, saying
'the West must prepare to continue supporting Ukraine in a war lasting for
years'.
Boris Johnson says supplies of weapons, equipment,
ammunition, and training needed to outpace Moscow's efforts to rearm itself
and that we should steel ourselves for a long war; but let's hope the war is
over by Christmas.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine war could last for years, warns Nato chief
It must be remembered Putin started his invasion of Ukraine in
2014 when he invaded Crimea and the Donbas. This is an extension of a war
that started 8 years ago.
Any cease-fire now would just give Putin the opportunity
to re-arm before pressing on towards Poland and the Baltic states.
A Ukrainian spokesman suggests there will no
negotiations before the end of August, and one assumes Ukraine is hoping by
then to have counter-attacked and recaptured enough territory to put them in
a much stronger bargaining position.
The new Chief of the Defence Staff is reported to have
told soldiers in a leaked private communication they must be ready to fight the Russian army, should the
situation escalate.
General Sir Patrick Sanders says our forces must prepare
to fight in Europe once again as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has led to a
new era of insecurity.
Click for Daily Mail newspaper report - Prepare to fight and beat Russia in
a Third World War
Other pundits are suggesting NATO must increase its arsenal and
readiness of troops. This would no doubt come at a cost when inflation is
already causing hardship.
18th June (day 115)
There is talk of the Eurovision Song Contest being held
in the safety of Glasgow next year, but Boris Johnson says, in order to boost
morale in Kiev, it should be held in Ukraine.
There are Russian missile attacks on Kremencheck and Kyri
Riv to the west of the Dnipro river and Mikolayiv; plus continued fighting
in Severodonetsk and shelling of Lysychansk.
17th June (day 114)
Boris Johnson meets President Zelensky in Kiev to discuss
military and humanitarian aid.
Russian naval tug Vasily Bekh sunk while on a mission to
bring ammunition, weapons, and personnel to Snake Island.
Comment
For days it has been difficult to know what the situation
is in the east of Ukraine. Russian forces are said to be making only
small gains at great cost. One day it seems the Ukrainians are about to be
overwhelmed and the next there are reports Ukraine is counter attacking.
Whatever the situation, Russia is still lobbing over a
considerable number of shells and missiles causing widespread damage.
That said if Ukraine is to win, we should shortly see
Ukraine begin to push back the Russians in some areas.
That will to a large extent depend on the supply of
Western arms and the training of sufficient numbers of Ukrainian soldiers in
their use which will take many weeks.
Today Ukraine will at least feel bolstered by
declarations of continued support from the UK and EU.
16th June (day 113)
BBC interview with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. He
says, with a straight face, Russia has not invaded Ukraine!
Leaders of France, Germany, and Italy visit Kiev.
The EC recommends Kiev be accepted as a candidate for
joining the EU; meeting the requirements will probably take many years, but
the news is a boost for Ukraine.
Two US citizens fighting for Ukraine get lost and are
captured.
Russians pushing towards Sloviansk; it's not clear
whether any progress is being made.
Large Russian ammunition depot in Khrustalnyi, Luhansk
region, was reported destroyed.
15th June (day 112)
No entry
14th June (day 111)
A rocket hits a military facility in Russia near the town
of Klintsy. Klintsy lies close to both the eastern border of Belarus and the
northern border of Ukraine.
The last bridge from Severodonetsk across the
Siversky Donets river is reported to have been destroyed. This will make it
difficult for Ukrainian troops to withdraw, but also for the Russians to
cross. The Russians could however be planning to encircle Ukrainian forces
from the west, for example by moving battle groups south from Izium and
north from Popasna.
Click for MilitaryLand Invasion Day 110 Summary
13th June (day 110)
It was reported on Saturday evening cruise missile fired
from the Black Sea hit a military depot near the town of Chortkiv in west
Ukraine where the Russians claim arms from the west were in transit. 22
people were hospitalised.
Click for France24 report - Russia strikes arms depot west Ukraine as battle
for Severodonetsk rages east
12th June (day 109)
It's Sunday and we are reminded to love others as ourselves.
Putin, on the other hand, in the last 100 days has caused
the deaths of roughly 50,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, maiming and
wounding about 150,000 more; killed and wounded almost as many civilians
many of whom are still buried in the rubble of their homes; and caused
around 10 million people to be displaced from their homes. Wherever Putin is
going it won't be to heaven.
Sadly Jordan Gatley a former British soldier who joined
the Armed Forces of Ukraine in March has been killed during the fighting for
Severodonetsk.
A huge fire is reported at the Azot Chemical Works in
Severodonetsk where Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are located.
The BBC reports land-mines are a serious problem for
farmers wanting to plough fields and sow crops.
It is rumoured presidents Macron (France), Scholz
(Germany) and Draghi (Italy) could visit Kiev before the next G7 meeting in
Bavaria on 26th June. Purpose unknown but could be concerning either
Ukraine's application to join the EU, the supply of weapons, or to suggest
Ukraine cedes territory to Russia in order to end hostilities.
Russia captured Svyatohirsk a few days ago and is
rumoured to have crossed the Siverski Donets river with a view to pushing on
towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Ukraine continues counter-attacks in Kherson.
Click for militaryland.net Invasion Day 108 summary
11th June (day 108)
Reports on Twitter increasingly suggest the tide is
turning in favour of Russia.
Click for Sky News report by Stuart Ramsay - There's a change of atmosphere
in Donbas - a sense that Russia has momentum
10th June (day 107)
Comment
Pundits say the fighting in Severodonetsk is fierce,
Russian troops have advanced a short distance around Izium, Ukrainian
artillery is outnumbered 10:1 and supplies of Soviet calibre ammunition are
almost exhausted.
Russian rocket launchers have been moved into Belarus and
Putin's ally Lushenka has Belarus forces exercising near the northern
border of Ukraine.
Within the occupied terroritories of Luhansk, Donetsk and
Kherson Putin is putting in Russian administrations as a first step to
incorporating the regions into the Russian Federation.
Added to this Ukrainian troops are tired and suffering
extreme casualties, the World's media is turning its attention to other
matters and support from some Western governments, for example Hungary and
Germany, appears weak.
Without a lot more continued support from the West Putin
is going to win this war. The drip feed of arms from its allies seems barely
enough for Ukraine to halt the further advance of Russian forces.
There are rumours Russia thinks their Military Operation
might be over by Christmas, but the war could go on a lot longer if Ukraine
decides to try and push Russia back to its 24th February start line.
9th June (day 106)
Ukraine is just about holding on in the Donbas but the situation is
reported to be critical.
Two Britons Aiden Aslin, 28, and Shaun Pinner, 48, who
were captured by Russian forces while fighting for Ukraine in Mariupol have
been sentenced to death, state-owned Russian news agency RIA Novosti has
said. A third POW, Moroccan national Saaudun Brahim, has also reportedly
been sentenced to death.
Click for Sky News report - Two British fighters sentenced to death in
separatist area, Russian state media says
This may be a negotiating ploy.
President Zelensky says the fate of Donbas region is
being decided in Severodonetsk. This will be partly a call for the West to
speed up delivery of MLRS and munitions.
The outcome of the battle for Severodonetsk hangs in the
balance. Russia seems to be throwing in all it has, and pundits suggest
Ukraine may yet have to withdraw to defend Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Click for Kiev Independent report - In Severodonetsk, fierce urban battle
ongoing to exhaust Russia
Talks between Russia and Turkey about exporting Ukrainian
grain through the Black Sea are continuing, but as clearing mines would make
it easier for Russia to attack Odessa, and the talks have not included a
representative from Ukraine it's hard to see progress being made.
8th June (day 105)
Russian tanks, artillery and lorries being moved by rail
from Irkutz to replace losses in Ukraine.
Russian reinforcements gathering at a staging post near
town of Valuyki SE of Belgorod.
Missiles fired at Kharkiv from Russia.
There are Russian missile launchers in Belarus, and
Belarus forces are exercising near the Ukrainian border. Possibly a
diversion.
Russian forces have advanced some miles from Izium, and
fierce fighting continues in Severodonetsk where both sides have suffered
many casualties.
Putin's aim is now likely to be to annex the Luhansk,
Donetsk and Kherson regions and as much of Zaporizhzhia as he can. In the
captured territory Russian families are being moved in, Russian currency
introduced, the street signs renamed and so on. Russian troops are building
defences against counter-attacks. They don't plan on going home. On the
other hand partisans are beginning to fight back in the occupied zone.
7th June (day 104)
Fighting continues with no major gains or losses in the last few days.
Sky News reports Ukraine counter-attacking the Russians around
Kharkhiv in the north and Kherson in the south, while fierce fighting
continues in the city of Severodonetsk where Russia is throwing in
everything they have in an attempt to capture the city. President Zelensky
says better to fight now than take more casualties trying to recapture the
city later.
Click for a map
of the approximate situation in Ukraine on 07/06/22
Pundits suggest support from Germany is all talk but little action
regarding the supply of heavy weapons - likely for fear
of upsetting Putin.
6th June (day 103)
Russians counter-attacking in Severodonetsk; President
Zelensky, visiting Lysychansk, says Ukrainian forces are greatly
outnumbered.
Third largest grain silo in Ukraine attacked. Russia
blocking export of grain through the black sea, and sending it instead to
Russia. This may cause famine in third world countries.
5th June (day 102)
Four Russian missiles hit railway wagon repair facility
on the west side of the city of Kiev. Possibly another attempt to disrupt
the rail network.
Ukraine counter attacks in the city of Severodonetsk.
Russian Major General Roman Kutuzov was reported killed
in Mykolaivka near Popasna leading separatist troops.
4th June (day 101)
Ukraine counter offensive in Severodonetsk. About 20% of
the city reported to be recaptured.
Journalist Caleb Larson of the New York Sun newspaper
talks on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme at 08:36 hours about the situation
in Severodonetsk which he had just left. Catch up on BBC Sounds.
Some pundits suggest what Putin wants is not to capture
Ukrainian territory but to keep NATO out of Ukraine.
3rd June (day 100)
Russians reported to have captured most of Severodonetsk.
MODUK Twitter reports Russia is winning the war in the Donbas. Ukraine
complains of not having enough weapons to counter Russian forces.
Russia claims to have shot down a Ukrainian military
aircraft carrying western arms near Odessa.
2nd June (day 99)
Railway network attacked near Lviv; no doubt part of Russian plan to slow
aid from the West.
Journalist Neil Hauer, who has been providing
useful updates on the situation around Severodonetsk from close to the front
line for several weeks, has left Ukraine. Today he says he is back home in Yerevan.
It seems likely that in recent days Ukrainian forces have been gradually
withdrawing from Severodonetsk across the river Siversky Donets which could
form a new front line in the east.
A few miles to the west Russian forces are advancing SW
from Staryi Karavan towards Sloviansk.
Russian tactics are now to pound an area with artillery
before occupying it which is leading to many Ukrainian casualties.
Troops on both sides are getting very tired.
Found a new website roughly showing front
lines:-
www.theukrainemap.com
The UK may send M270 MLRS to Ukraine; no statement of how
many or when.
Yesterday two Russian amphibious boats were reported
destroyed in the Dnipro-Buh estuary (Kherson area).
Russia still trying to beef up air defences on Snake
Island including
SA-15 TOR and
SA-22 Pantsir systems.
A war of attrition has developed and pundits think it
could go on for months.
1st June (day 98)
Russians reported to have infiltrated 70% of the city of
Severodonetsk spearheaded by Chechnyan troops.
US agrees to send HIMAR Multiple Launch Rocket Systems
MLRS) to Ukraine on condition they are not used to fire into Russia.
A report in the Washington post suggests only four
launchers are going to be sent. Assuming they won't all make it to the front
line and they will be number one target for Putin, one suspects such a small
quantity will make little or no difference.
31st May (day 97)
Ukraine gaining a little ground in Kherson province.
30th May (day 96)
Today
BBC journalist Jeremy Bowen reports Bahkmut is under threat and Russians
only 5 miles away.
Many news outlets are reporting that The United States
will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach into Russia according to
President Joe Biden.
For example see this headline in the Daily Mail:-
Biden says the U.S. will NOT be sending Ukraine any missile that can hit
Russia after Moscow's ambassador and Putin propagandists said it would be
crossing a red line
That's all rather vague but probably means missiles that
could reach Moscow if fired from within Ukraine.
It's a strange situation - Russia can fire long range
missiles at cities in Ukraine but Ukraine is not allowed to fire back! It's
a bit like the US not permitting Bombers from Britain to attack German
cities during WWII for fear of upsetting Hitler.
Clearly the Biden administration does not want to overly
upset Putin.
Likewise some say Israel will not supply arms to Ukraine
for fear of upsetting Russia and the situation in Syria.
On the other hand the BBC is suggesting the US could
supply MLRS systems with shorter range projectiles.
Click for BBC report: Ukraine may soon get US long-range MLRS rocket system
What next
Speculation on Twitter, Sky and BBC news suggests the
Russians may try to cross river Siversky Donets from
Sviatohirsk to Bohorodychne SE of
Izium and proceed south towards Sloviansk and
Kramatorsk on the west side of the river.
The Russians are already in Lyman on the
east side of the river and are rumoured to be moving south to Staryi
Karavan and Dibrova possibly through or around Ukrainian troops in
the National Forest.
They could then move west across the river using the road
and rail bridges towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk;
possibly linking up with Russian units driving west to Bahkmut
from Popasna and then towards Kramatorsk
in order to surround the Ukrainian brigades defending Severodonetsk and
surrounds.
Ukrainian forces would of course be doing their best to
stop them!
29th May (day 95)
Comment
For the past few days the world has been watching the ebb
and flow of fighting around Severodonetsk. Reports appear confused by the
fog of war. Will this be a turning point for one side or the other or will
the bloody stalemate continue for weeks if not months - we'll have to wait a
little longer to find out.
Western pundits optimistically think Russia could be
running out of its best weapon systems, while Ukraine may soon be supplied
with longer range artillery allowing them to attack lines of supply more
effectively and possibly dislodge some of Putin's troops..
Ukrainian leaders are concerned that some politicians in
France, Italy and the USA are thinking Ukrainian land should be gifted to
Putin to stop the war. Also that little support is being provided by
Germany, while other European countries are being slow to cut off Russian
gas. On the other-hand Ukraine is hoping the USA will provide long range
MLRS artillery, which could make a big difference.
Today
This morning the BBC TV Sunday Morning programme on
current affairs ran an interview between journalist Clive Myrie and the
Russian Ambassador in London.
Click
to view: Russian ambassador to the UK interview in full - BBC News
The ambassador said the Russian Federation would
not use either strategic or tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.
This evening Sky News ran a programme; Putin's obsession
- The Fight for Ukraine. It says Putin has turned Russia into a Dictatorship
and needs Ukraine in his sphere of influence to survive.
Putin appears an existential threat to Ukraine - the West
may be getting bored with the war, but it cannot afford to let Putin win.
Around Kramatorsk electricity has been cut off due to a
downed power line.
Ukraine rumoured to be counter attacking in the Kherson
region and holding up around Severodonetsk.
Do Russians have sufficient capability to push on to
Sloviansk or are they running out of steam?
Putin will no doubt want his troops to press on and take
as much of Ukraine as possible, if they can.
28th May (day 94)
Russians in control of Lyman a key transport hub.
Soon the Ukraine military will need to decide whether to
fight the Russians in the city of Severodonetsk or withdraw to fight another
day.
The next Russian objectives could be Sloviansk, Bakhmut
and Kramatorsk.
27th May (day 93)
Report from Alex Crawford Sky News on the desperate
situation in Severodonetsk.
Growing fear and no time to mourn inside the next city in Russia's sights
26th May (day 92)
No entry
25th May (day 91)
Report from Jeremy Bowen BBC News in Dnipro which sums up
situation near Severodonetsk.
Click
for BBC report: This is just the beginning, everything is still to come
24th May (day 90)
Russian forces are making progress to encircle Ukrainian
defenders near Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukraine appears to be on the
backfoot.
Russian forces have pushed forward to the Bakhmut
Lysychansk highway, and captured Svitlodarsk, and Lyman. The village
of Vidrodzhennya has been captured. Avdiivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, Toretsk, and
New York residents are being evacuated to Dnipro. The Azot chemical plant
has been shelled in Severodonetsk. Vasylivka NE of Bakhmut is said to be
under Russian control. Russia rumoured to be setting up Iskander
missile systems in Belarus and generally strengthening positions.
Russia is bedding in for a long war in Ukraine. Putin
hopes to secure and expand his gains in the eastern Donbas region and south.
President Zelensky warns the coming weeks of the
war will be difficult.
Alex Crawford bravely reports from Severodonetsk for Sky
News.
https://twitter.com/AlexCrawfordSky
23rd May (day 89)
According to Sky News the Russians have blown a bridge
across the Siversky Donets river across which defenders in Severodonetsk
have been receiving supplies. Ukrainian troops may therefore have to leave
most of their equipment behind if they are forced to retreat from the city.
Rumours Russian troop are planning to advance on Yampil,
then cross the Siversky Donets river to Seversk and join up with troops from
Popasna in order to surround Ukrainian forces and capture the remainder of
Luhansk province.
22nd May (day 88)
Sunday
President Zelensky says only diplomacy will end the war,
but rules out a ceasefire and concessions to Russia. He says there are many
Ukrainian casualties in the east; possibly between 50 and 100 dying every
day.
Pundits suggest the war could soon deteriorate into long
range artillery duels. Russia rumoured to be running out of drones for
target spotting.
If the Russians dig in to defend captured territory
they could in turn become easy targets if Ukraine can deploy longer range
artillery.
Ukraine claims to have attacked a Russian supply convoy
near Komyshuvakha, in the Luhansk region, some 40 kilometres from
Severodonetsk.
Russia claims to have hit a supply area containing
western weapons in NW Ukraine.
Claims Russia has transported up to 1M Ukrainians to
'camps' in Russia.
More rumours Putin is ill and could be sent to a
sanitorium.
21st May (day 87)
Fierce fighting as Russians attempt to capture Severodonetsk.
Mikolayiv continues to be shelled. Much of the population has left as the
water supply was cut off weeks ago.
20th May (day 86)
Russia to cut off gas and electricity supplies to Finland. Supplies
to Poland and Bulgaria already cut off.
Lithuania to stop importing Russian gas, oil and electricity.
Ukraine claims to have destroyed Russian armored vehicles
attempting to cross the Seversky Donets River near Dronivka to the west of
other failed attempts near Belogorovka.
19th May (day 85)
The BBC reports more than 900 Ukrainian fighters from the
Mariupol steel-works have been taken to a former prison colony in
Russian-controlled Donetsk; 1,730 fighters from Azovstal have surrendered
since 16 May, and there may be another 1,000 fighters trapped at the plant.
Click for BBC report: Russia says 900 Mariupol defenders sent to prison camp
18th May (day 84)
Azov garrison surrenders
It appears the Ukrainian forces trapped in the Azov
steel-works have capitulated. Russia reports 700 soldiers have surrendered
in the last 24 hours, making 1,000 in all.
The Western media speculates the Azov POW might be
swapped for Russian POW, while there are calls in Russia for the men to be
interrogated and tried for war crimes.
Putin's patience has paid off and he can claim a victory.
There is talk of plans to clear a sunken ship and mines so Putin can bring
reinforcements into the port of Mariupol by sea.
Further north Ukrainian forces are being hard pressed
near Severodonetsk.
17th May (day 83)
About 264 wounded defenders are evacuated from the Azov
steel plant in Mariupol. It seems as if some deal has been worked out in
conjunction with the UN and Red Cross.
16th May (day 82)
Russia is said to be quietly mobilising and dribbling new troops into
Ukraine.
Only 10% of the Luhansk region is now said to be under
Ukrainian control compared to 30% at the beginning of March and the Russians
want to capture the remainder including Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Russian forces are said to be pressing forward to the
Bakhmut Severodonetsk highway from Popasna in an attempt to surround the
defenders.
Ukrainian SF have blown bridges between Rubizhne and
Severodonetsk to slow the Russian advance from the Izium direction.
Click for BBC report from near Izium - pinned down by Russian fire in key
frontline village
Germany, France and Italy are proposing Putin calls a cease fire - that
would reward him with a lot of captured territory, so if Ukraine is on the
front foot they might not play ball.
15th May (day 81)
It's Sunday and in church we were reminded to Love our
neighbour. Sadly Putin just brings death and misery to mankind, including
Russian children who will have no fathers, Ukrainians who will have no
homes, and those in the 'third world' who will die of starvation because
supplies of food have been interrupted.
There are more reports of the depravity and brutality of
Russian troops.
We wondered what it is like living in the occupied cities
such as Melitopol, Kherson and Mariupol, and in villages where there are
tales of rape and murder.
Finland and Sweden announce intent to join NATO.
MODUK says Russia has lost a third of their
forces deployed in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accuses the West
of declaring all out hybrid war against Russia.
14th May (day 80)
Comment
A few days ago it sounded like Ukraine was slowly losing
ground, whilst today after some successful attacks it appears as though
Ukraine could be winning, but the reality is probably stalemate,
with both sides taking a severe battering.
Ukraine says 23% of its rail network has been destroyed.
Commentators on Twitter suggest Putin's tired forces are
digging in with a view to retaining territory captured in the
Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson
regions and replacing the civil administrations. Further north Russian
troops could attempt to push on towards Barinkove to the SW
of Izium, and to Severodonetsk if lines of
supply between Belgorod and Izium are not interrupted.
In the Kherson region Russian forces could try pressing
on towards Mikolayiv in order to reach Odessa,
and to the city of Zaporizhzyha.
At the moment it looks as though Ukraine has just enough
assets to defend the current line, but not enough to mount a
counter-offensive and push the Russians out.
13th May (day 79)
Ukrainians think they may get the upper hand by August and the war could
be over by Christmas.
Russians suffer heavy losses attempting to cross the Siverskyi-Donets
river.
Speculation Russia has given up trying to take Kharkiv.
Rumours that Putin has cancer and there may already be moves to replace him.
Speculation Putin has sacked his top General Valery Gerasimov.
ISW consider it possible Russia might announce annexation
of the territory they have captured into the Russian Federation; then might
threaten use of tactical nuclear missiles if any attempt were made to take the
territory back.
Turkey says it does not feel favourable to Finland and
Sweden joining NATO.
12th May (day 78)
Russia said to be moving troops from Syria to Ukraine
11th May (day 77)
The PM signs bilateral treaties of mutual support with Sweden and
Finland.
Click
for BBC report: UK agrees mutual security deals with Finland and Sweden
Fighting continues over Snake Island
which lies off the coast of Ukraine, SW of Odessa. Russia has been
attempting to fortify the island with Air Defence Systems and Coastal
Defence Missiles, which could aid the blockade of the port of Odessa
and any attempt to establish a land corridor to Transnistria
(see below).
Click for BBC report: Snake Island and battle for control in Black Sea
The Ukrainian counter attack continues to push Russian
forces away from Kharkiv in the north and could threaten
Russian supplies coming from Belgorod to Izium. However the Russians have reserves on their side of
the border which could be moved to protect supply routes which have been
forced eastwards, and reinforcements
could be brought up from the Donbas.
Prof Michael Clarke speaking on Sky News expressed the
opinion that Ukraine would likely not be capable of a larger offensives until
the Summer or Autumn.
Russia continues to consolidate its positions and make
small gains in the east.
Pounding attacks continue on the Azov steel plant in
Mariupol where there will probably be a fight to the death.
Attacks have resumed on Odessa and the Dniester bridge in
recent days. There is again some concern Russian troops in the break away
district of Transnistria in Moldova might cause trouble. Russia has an
estimated 1,500 soldiers in Transnistria, which Moscow refers to as a
'peace-keeping' force, and they have access to a large ammunition depot at
Cobasna. Moldova has a very limited military capability but borders
Romania which is a member of NATO.
There are rumours Belarus troops are on manouvre near the
Ukrainian border in the north. President Lukashenka is a supporter of
Moscow, but the people are less so and pundits think it unlikely Belarus
troops would get directly involved in the war in Ukraine.
10th May (day 76)
Missile attacks on Odessa hit a warehouse and shopping mall.
The overall situation appears to be
'stalemate' with the Russians being able to make little
progress westwards and Ukraine not having the military capability to retake
the captured areas. If Putin had sense he would dig in and call a ceasefire.
9th May (day 75)
May Day parade in Moscow.
Putin does not escalate the war in Ukraine by announcing
general mobilization, but of course he could always do that later if he felt
the war was not going his way. He explained he was forced into taking
military action by the risk of NATO encroachment into Ukraine. Pundits think
Putin is preparing for a long war in Ukraine - peace talks seem unlikely
while both sides think they can win.
Click below for Radio Free Europe report from Mariupol:-
Weary residents look on in occupied Mariupol as Russia holds Victory Day
Celebrations
8th May (day 74)
Yesterday a school where 90 civilians were sheltering was
bombed by the Russians at Bilohorivka 40 KM east of Kramatorsk. 60 civilians
are feared dead in the rubble.
Click for BBC report: 60 people killed after bomb hits school, Zelensky says
Reports suggest the Russians have been consolidating
their hold and edging forward making small gains in the east such as at
Popasna and in the south east, but with significant loss of men and
equipment. In the north east Ukrainian counter attacks are pushing the
Russians away from Kharkiv.
A summary of events can be found on the Ukrainian Pravda
website:-
Region reports: Russian missiles strike Mykolaiv, troops occupy government
buildings in Kherson Region
For other situation reports for example by ISW and
'Jomini of the West' see Twitter links at the end.
Civilians are said to have evacuated the Azov steel
plant, where the remaining 2,000 defenders in Mariupol seem prepared to
fight to the death.
Tomorrow Moscow will celebrate victory over the Nazis in
1945. ABC News (owned by the Walt Disney Company) reports on what to expect:-
Russia's Victory Day to mark key milestone in war with Ukraine
Comment
No-one knows what Putin's war aims are so it's uncertain
what he will do next; possibly he will make an announcement at tomorrow's
May Day victory celebrations.
It is concerning that Putin's survival depends on winning and
he does not appear to have a 'reverse gear'. The war could therefore grind
on until either Putin captures the whole of Ukraine or begins to run out of
soldiers and ammunition when he would no doubt restart peace negotiations
intending to keep as much of the Ukrainian territory his forces have
captured as possible.
7th May (day 73)
Today's reports
The last civilians are said to have been evacuated from the Azov steel
plant in Mariupol.
The Ukrainian Pravda newspaper carries an update on the
operational situation:-
General Staff: Armed Forces of Ukraine destroy Russian ammunition depot in
Mykolaiv Region
The place names are unfamiliar, but here is a stab at the
situation as reported.
Polissia front: marshy ground to the north. Russian
troops near border; quiet.
Siverskyi front: possibly relates to Donets river running
past Kharkiv and Donetsk. Russians reinforcing positions on Russian Kursk side of
border; quiet.
Slobozanzkyi front: Russians shelling Kharkiv and
flying drones over Izium. Russians blow 3 road bridges north east
of Kharkiv to delay Ukrainian counter attacks - possibly suggesting the
Russians do not plan to come back.
Donetsk and Tavriia front: probably refers to the area in
the SE between Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson and the Black Sea, which
includes Melitopol. Ukrainian troops being attacked along the line
of contact.
Pivdennyi Buh front possibly referring to Southern Bug
river which passes Mykolaiv: Ukrainian positions attacked with
intent to deploy artillery and shell the city of Mykolaiv which halts
progress to Odessa.
Ukrainians destroy Russian ammunition depot near Ivano-Kepyne about 60 Km
to the east of the city of Mykolaiv.
Russian missiles hit the port of Odessa and surrounds.
Recent reports
There appear to have been no events of major importance during the
previous two days.
Evacuations from the Azov steel plan, the port of
Mariupol, and surrounds have
continued; numbers of around 500 have been mentioned but not clear how many
civilians have escaped from the bunkers of the Azov steel plant.
Attacks have continued on the defenders cornered in the Azov steel
plant. Russia appears to be planning a victory
parade in Mariupol on 9th May.
Click for Guardian report - Putin hopes to claim Mariupol as key prop in
Victory Day celebrations, published 5th May
There were unconfirmed reports the Russian
missile frigate
Admiral Makarov commissioned in 2017 may have been damaged by a Neptune
missile and is on fire in the Black Sea. Though reports were widely
circulated this appears to be fake news.
Ukraine has been on the offensive and retaken towns to
the north east of Kharkiv. Ostensibly this is to reduce shelling,
but the city can still be hit by Russian missiles fired from further away.
The Ukrainian government website
www.kmu.gov.ua/en which had been
carrying a daily operational summary of events no longer works and is marked
forbidden, but there is a new webpage
www.war.ukraine.ua and if you
click FOR MEDIA on the menu you will find links to some 'sanitised' key messages.
For example:-
KEY MESSAGES ON RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE as of 6th May
The website
Ukrainian Crisis Media Centre relays a similar timeline.
6th May (day 72)
No diary entry
5th May (day 71)
Missile attacks on Kramatorsk where Russians claim an ammunition depot
was destroyed.
Now too dangerous to evacuate civilians from Popasna.
Bridge and railway network attacked in Dnipro:-
The Amur bridge which carries road and rail traffic
across the Dnieper river was damaged as Russia continues to attack lines of
supply from the West.
4th May (day 70)
Attacks reported on 3 electricity substations and 6
railway stations near Lviv in the far west; this is presumably to disrupt
the transport of arms from western nations. It also disrupts the water
supply to Lviv.
Bus station hit in Avdiivka north of Donetsk killing and injuring
civilians.
Oil facility on fire at Makeyevka north east of Donetsk;
this may be a Russian asset.
Russian forces are thought to be preparing another push
from Izium towards Kramatorsk and Severodonetsk in order to secure a firmer
hold on the Donbas.
Civilians from Tokmak and Vasylika are to be evacuated to
Zaporizhzhya which suggests Russia is gaining some ground in the region of
Kherson.
Pundits say it would be very difficult for Ukraine to
retake the land corridor to Crimea were Russians to blow the bridges across
the Dnieper river, immediately to the east of the city of Kherson.
That might be viewed as
bad news in Ukraine, but on the plus side it could signal Russia did not
intend to press on to Odessa and a possible end to hostilities, giving Putin
a way out. Russia might then hold onto its gains in the Donbas and the land
corridor to Crimea including the port of Mariupol.
That said, the latest news from the government of Ukraine suggests Putin
is pressing on to capture as much of Ukraine as he can:-
The operational update regarding the Russian invasion at 18:00 hours on May
4th 2022 link no longer works
3rd May (day 69)
Sounds like the Russians are bringing in reinforcements and
consolidating their positions with a view to holding present ground, while
possibly pressing further west.
Click for BBC Ukraine war in maps: Tracking the Russian invasion
Russians shell and bomb Avdiivka (Avdeyevka) and Vuhledar
(Ugledar) near Donetsk in the east, and Lyman on the outskirts of Odessa in
the south.
Ukraine retakes Staryi Saltiv NE of Kharkiv.
Russian submarines, which are firing missiles into
Ukraine and being supplied from the port of Sevastopol, Crimea, could become
vulnerable if Ukraine ia able to procure state of the art missiles.
Click for Ukraine government operational update
link no longer works
Boris Johnson addresses the Ukrainian parliament via a video link.
Click for text of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's address to the Ukrainian
Parliament: 3 May 2022
In the evening it is reported 127 civilians evacuated
from Mariupol reach Ukrainian controlled Zaporizhzyha.
Click for BBC report - Relief as Mariupol steelworks refugees arrive to
safety
An example of war crimes and barbarism
The Guardian newspaper carried a report on Saturday 30th April:-
How the barbaric lessons learned in Syria came to haunt one small Ukrainian
village
Broadcaster John Simpson says on Twitter 'this is enough
to show the appalling reality of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These
things will never be forgotten by Russia’s neighbours'.
You must read the report and make up your own mind, but
it seems clear to us amongst the Russian conscripts there are thieves,
rapists and murderers committing cruel and brutal acts - people who in the
normal world should be in prison.
At the Azov steel works
Russia steps up attacks on the defenders in the Azov
steel works immediately after some civilians are evacuated. The defenders
are in bunkers and tunnels so will be hard to dislodge, as the British found
after they shelled German positions before the Battle of the Somme.
Comment
It's interesting the way nations respond to war. In
Afghanistan the men chose not to fight and surrendered themselves to Taliban
rule, which has set women's rights back 100 years. The Kurds fiercely fought
the Islamic State and likewise Ukrainians are fighting Putin's forces.
We must all be concerned whether or not this war will
escalate into a conflict involving the whole of Europe.
Well in a way that is already happening in terms of
sanctions, military aid, inflation, and fuel and food shortages in the
pipeline; military action has already spread outside the borders of Ukraine,
with military targets being attacked inside Russia.
The only question left is will Russia attack NATO? Putin
has already lost a lot of men and equipment, so he would be unwise to
escalate, but who knows what an irrational Dictator will do.
Putin is essentially playing a game of Poker with
the West, for very high stakes; one suspects logic has flown out the window.
2nd May (day 68)
Ukraine retakes Ruska Lozova to stop the
shelling of Kharkiv; it's possible logistics from
Belgorod could be interrupted if Ukraine makes further gains in
the north.
Ukrainian drones drop 'missiles' and damage two Russian
Raptor patrol boats near Snake Island in the Black Sea.
UEFA bans Russia from international football tournaments.
More reporting on civilians being evacuated from
Mariupol. Seems they have not yet reached Zaporizhzyha
and it's not clear how many, but a figure of just 100 or so has been
mentioned.
The Russians have been transporting military equipment
and supplies from Belgorod to Izium then trying to break
out SW to Barvenkovo and SE to Slovyansk,
but with little success.
There is a Russian build up in Kherson,
but not clear whether this is consolidation, diversion or heralds an attempt
to try for Odessa.
There is a missile strike on Odessa, and
a further attack on the bridge across the Dienester estuary.
Russian missiles strike grain warehouses and a silo in
the Dnipro region.
There are fears Putin could announce a general
mobilisation at Russia's May Day parade in Moscow which would ratchet up the
threat of a full blown European war.
European support for Ukraine is not all it might be.
Turkey, a member of NATO, plans to ignore the ban on air travel and fly in
Russian holidaymakers. Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia are highly
dependent on Russian oil and gas and continue to finance Russia's war
machine. Many Germans are fearful of antagonising Putin. As one might
expect, business and fear largely trump morality.
Click for Ukraine government operational update link no longer works
1st May (day 67)
Comment
It's Sunday the first of May 2022. Reporting from Ukraine
is limited and it's too dangerous for journalists to be on the front line,
but here is a summary of what seems to be going on gleaned from Twitter;
it's largely conjecture on our part:-
Russia has captured a large part of the Donbas in the
east and Kherson in the south, and seems to be
strengthening
its grip on the territory it holds.
Russian troops continue to press forward aggressively, so
Putin can claim a political victory for Russia's May Day parade on the 9th
of the month. The Russian army has gained a little ground, but has met
fierce resistance, lost a lot of armoured vehicles, and the tempo of
fighting could be slowing
Russia is still attempting to take more territory in the
east, for example around Severodonetsk and could be
planning a breakout from Zaporizhzyha to Kryvyi Rih from
where troops would either have the option to head north for Kiev or continue
west to meet up with dissidents in Transnistria, Moldova.
A further assault to attempt to take or bypass
Mikolayiv in order to capture Odessa and join up with Russian
troops posing as freedom fighters in the break away region of Transnistria
in Moldova cannot be ruled out.
In counter-attacks Ukraine claims to have retaken the
villages of Verkhnia Rohanka, Ruska Lozova, and Slobidske to the north and
east of Kharkhiv, and could make further gains in other
areas once more arms flow in from the West and troops are trained how to use
them. That could be a month away and in the meantime Ukraine needs to hold
the line as best it can.
There seem to be elements in Germany who are supportive
of Russia, and Germany has made alternative arrangements to continue buying
oil and gas in Roubles, thus funding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is
because Germany is so dependant on Russian gas, but were purchases to stop
Putin would be brought to his knees.
Following the UN Secretary General's visit to Moscow and
Kiev about 50 women and children have been evacuated from Mariupol by UN
coaches; but there are possibly 1,000 more needing to be rescued.
Russia has cut fibre optic cables interrupting
communications to Kherson and Zaporizhzhya, and is introducing the Rouble as
currency in captured areas.
Ukraine accuses Russia of deporting Ukrainians to Russia
and bringing Russians into Ukraine. Russia is said to be transporting stolen
Ukrainian tractors, harvesters and grain to Russia.
There are reports of a Ukrainian attack on a Russian 2nd
Army Command Post near Izium where a Russian general was killed and others
injured. It is reported that Putin’s Chief of Staff General Valery
Gerasimov was one of the injured and evacuated to Belgorod by
helicopter. A military warehouse in Belgorod is reported on fire.
Russia ought soon to be happy with their gains so may
propose a cease fire - perhaps planning to nibble away more Ukrainian territory at a
later date.
Ukraine may want to fight on in the hope of
reclaiming captured territory, once armed with weapons from the West, in
which case some think that the war could go on for months or even years.
30th April (day 66)
Fierce fighting is reported in east
Donbas where Russia has edged forwards, and heavy losses - the Battle of the
Donbas is turning into a battle of attrition. Some think the Russian attack
may peter out in a week or so, after Putin's May Day parade on 9th May.
Others worry if Putin suffers too severe a setback he may declare war on
Ukraine and mobilise reserves increasing the possibility of war with NATO.
Missile attacks put the runway at Odessa airport out of
action. There is violence nearby in the Transnistria region of Moldova,
where a Russian garrison is maintained, which could be 'False Flag'
operations by Russia hoping to open up another front and take more of the
coastline around Odessa.
An unconfirmed report suggests a small Russian sabotage group
may have been planning to attack the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant at
Pivdennoukrainsk which lies about 150Km north of Odessa and 300 Km west of
Zaporizhzhya near the city of Yuzhnoukrainsk.
There was mention yesterday of British volunteers captured by
the Russian military:
Sky News reports Paul Urey and Dylan Healy were captured at a Russian
checkpoint in Zaporizhzysa attempting to rescue a Ukrainian family.
The
BBC
reports Aidan Aslin and Shaun Pinner surrendered near Mariupol.
Sky News reports Andrew Hill surrendered near Mykolayiv.
Sky News reports Scott Sibley was killed nearby.
The latter had possibly joined the Ukraine Foreign Legion.
29th April (day 65)
The Russians fired 5 missiles into the city of Kiev while
the UN Secretary General was there. One draws the conclusion Putin was
'sticking up a finger' at the UN.
Two British voluntary workers evacuating civilians were
reported captured at a Russian checkpoint in Zaporizhzhya.
On BBC Newsnight pundits said the immediate aim was to
stop the Russian advance in Ukraine. Then there must be a discussion within
NATO to agree how far to push the Russians back and bring an end to the
conflict.
28th April (day 64)
Putin says any country that intervenes in his special
military operation will face a lightning-fast response.
Not only that Putin claims if necessary he’s prepared to
use all the tools no-one can boast of which is presumably a
threat to use nuclear weapons to deter the West from providing aid to
Ukraine.
Lavrov tells the West their personnel and weapon systems
in Ukraine will be considered legitimate targets.
The UN Secretary General is now in Ukraine and will be
meeting with President Zelensky later today. The UN chief has visited
Borodyanka to view the destroyed city and was appalled by what he saw.
The UN would ideally like to evacuate 1,000 civilians
from the Azov steel plant area tomorrow.
Click for France24 report - War is an absurdity says UN chief during visit
to Ukraine’s Borodianka
One wonders what has happened to the remainder of the 400,000 population of
Mariupol as a result of Putin's siege and pounding the city into rubble;
surely the final tally of civilian casualties will be horrendous.
Click for Washington Post commentary on recent events:-
Putin using energy as a weapon, Zelensky says; Biden to speak on Ukraine
27th April (day 63)
Comment - the march to war
The drumbeats are getting louder as Western nations
gradually realise they have to stop Putin. The period of sitting on the
fence is over and Russia knows it. NATO countries are now supplying tanks
and artillery seemingly having decided the threat of nuclear war is unlikely
-
provided the conflict can be contained within Ukraine.
With the Russians now making small gains in the Donbas
and likely to make a pincer movement to surround the Ukrainian defenders
before pushing further west, and the possibility of Russia capturing
Mykolaiv and then pushing towards Odessa, Russia could yet claim a huge
victory.
If the Russians are stopped roughly where they are
Putin could still claim a Victory in taking the east Donbas and
establishing a land corridor to Crimea.
Either way Putin will be able to claim a victory, unless
Ukraine can push the Russian army back to it's start line and that is looking
unlikely at the moment.
Today
We are picking up most news from Twitter, the BBC and Sky
News which mostly present a Western viewpoint and it's all broad brush
stuff.
Explosions are reported at a Russian ammunition depot
near the settlement of Irmino which is situated east of Popasna (also known
as Popasnaya) and 30 miles west of Luhansk.
A few days ago there were reports of explosions at
fuel and ammunition
depots near Belgorod in Russia north of Kharkiv and Twitter reports suggest there may have
been many other acts of sabotage in Russia and Belarus.
Pundits say the longer range artillery given to Ukraine
should help the defenders.
Russians are reported to be in Kupyansk in the north of the city of
Kharkiv, in Svatove close to the city of Luhansk, and Zavody south west of
Izium.
Concerningly, Russians are said to be on the outskirts
of Kamyshevakha which looks to be well on the way to
Dnipro. The Russians have been on the outskirts of Zaporizhzhya for some
time and occupied the large Nuclear Power Plant, which has six reactors,
last month.
Bing maps seem a good place to find these locations:
https://www.bing.com/maps
Sky News reports from Kramatorsk that Russia is making
small gains and there have been fierce artillery duels.
Twitter reports the attrition of Russian armour has
increasing significantly in recent days - suggesting Russia's operational
pause is over and its troops are now pressing forward.
US spokesmen say they want to see Russia seriously
weakened.
Putin is angry and threatens 'severe action' against
those who interfere with his military operation. As far as we know Russia
has not declared war on Ukraine - Putin has just invaded it.
Radio 5 this morning
At 7:10 am on the Breakfast show Dr Samuel Ramani of
Oxford University spoke about the situation in Ukraine. He was followed at
8:20 am by Rear Admiral Chris Parry who thought that Russia would attempt to
take Odessa and Moldova by the 9th May.
General Lord Donnatt followed at 9:49 am on the Nicky
Campbel show. He thought a ceasefire, negotiation, and compromise would be
needed to end the war and that realistically Ukraine would have to give up 15% of
its territory, leaving the Donbas and Crimean corridor in Russian hands.
In the evening UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss made a
speech at the Manor House saying Russian forces must be pushed out
of the whole of Ukraine.
Click for
BBC report - Push Russia out of whole of Ukraine, says Truss
26th April (day 62)
Russians continue to make small gains in the Donbas.
Novotoshkivske near Popasna taken, Kreminna confirmed taken. Long column of
Russian tanks heading for Slovyansk. Ukrainian soldiers say they are taking
a hammering.
In the south the bridge across the Dniester estuary connecting Odessa to the
tip of Ukraine, Moldova and carrying the only rail link to Romania is badly
damaged by missile attacks.
Two radio masts near Mayak in the breakaway region on
Transnistria which broadcast Russian radio were badly damaged. Transnistria
is part of Moldova but leans towards Russia and has Russian troops stationed
there. Some pundits suspect Russia
will attempt to capture Odessa and establish a land corridor with
Transnistria.
Some Western politicians are beginning to say that
'Russia cannot be allowed to win' without declaring what that means.
UK Defence Minister James Heappey speaking on TV backed
Ukraine's right to attack lines of supply inside Russia with British
weapons.
Russia says it will cut off the supply of Natural Gas to
Poland and Bulgaria because they won't pay in Roubles. Possibly a warning to
Germany who rely on Russian gas.
The UN Secretary General visited Russia to discuss evacuation
of Mariupol with Putin and Lavrov. Little reported so we assume Putin was
not interested; his priority seeemed to be handing medals to Olympic gymnasts.
25th April (day 61)
Fires at civil and military oil storage depots at Bryansk
in Russia north of Kharkiv. Cause unknown but pundits have suggested
possibly Bayraktar TB2 drones or Tochka-U ballistic missiles.
Railway line in Russia bringing material into Ukraine
blown up; possibly by Ukrainian SF
Grenade attack on a ministry building in Transnistria a
Russian backed break away region in Moldova.
Red Cross aid to Krvyi Rih which lies to the north of
Kherson and west of Zaporizhzia.
Russians strike 5 railway stations, junctions, and
electricity substations in an attempt to slow the flow of weapons from the
West.
Missiles attacks on the city of Kremenchuk which lies to
the west of Dnipro.
Russian build up near Huliaipole to the east of
Zaporizhzia.
Unexplained explosion in Kreminna occupied by Russians.
In the north of the Donbas Lysachansk, Severodonetsk,
Rubhizne, Bakhmut, Kreminna and Popasna are being fought over. Further to
the north Kharkiv and Saltivka continue to be shelled.
US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defence meet with
Zelensky in Kiev and promise more aid.
Russia tells the United States to stop sending more arms
to Ukraine.
The Russians have continued to make small gains in east
Donbas and Putin could stop now and claim a victory, but he shows no sign of
doing so.
24th April (day 60)
It's Easter Sunday in the Orthodox church.
Not much to report. Russians are said to have made small
gains for heavy losses; two more Russian generals reported killed.
23rd May (day 59)
President Zelensky holds a large press conference in an
underground metro station in Kiev. Exhorts parents to protect their
children. Says US Secretary of State and Secretary for Defence will visit
Kiev tomorrow.
Defenders in Azov steel plant bombed; no evacuation from Mariupol.
Cruise missiles probably launched from aircraft hit
military facilities and apartments in Odessa.
22nd April (day 58)
In Ukraine it is Holy Friday of Easter in the Orthodox Church.
There is a Russian missile attack on a hospital in
Bashtanka a small town to the north of Mykolayiv. It's not clear why the
Russians would do that unless planning to skirt round Mykolayiv either in
order to capture Odessa or head north for Kiev.
Russian General Rustan Minnekayev provides a clue in
saying Russia wants to sieze South Ukraine and open a route to Transnistria
a break away district in Moldova.
Russia is said to have taken 42 villages but not advanced very far.
Heavy shelling continues in Kharkhiv
Russia is pressing south from Izium, fighting in Rubizhne
and hopes eventually to take Kramatorsk.
See a map of the region
Putin's Special Military Operation is renamed Operation Defend Donbas.
PM Boris Johnson says the war in Ukraine could go on till
the end of next year.
Either not a great deal is happening or there is an
enveloping cloak of secrecy, as the media has little to report.
21st April (day 57)
The
Battle of the Donbas may be just warming up. Ukraine rumoured to have
more T72 tanks from neighbouring countries possibly creating parity with the
Russian force.
Russians occupying Popasna in the Sievierodonetsk region but Ukraine
claims to hold Rubizhne.
So far Ukraine seems to be largely holding the line roughly running north
south from Izium to Mariupol.
Russia holds most of Mariupol and plans to seal off
defenders in the Azov steel plant. Ukraine has been talking about evacuating
the defenders and civilians so it's likely Putin will be able to announce
capturing Mariupol and the success of his specialised military
operation at Moscow's May Day parade.
20th April (day 56)
Ukraine claims to have retaken Marinka which lies to the north of
Mariupol in the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian commander of the defending force trapped
within the Azov steel plant in Mariupol says he is outnumbered and running
out of supplies and this may be his last broadcast. It sounds as though only
days or hours remain.
Click for BBC report - Mariupol commander makes 'last' plea for help
19th April (day 55)
Russia says 1,260 attacks were launched last night, and
there is said to be activity across the 300 mile long eastern front. Ukraine
confirms Russia now has control of Kreminna.
Bonker busting bombs are dropped on the defenders in
Mariupol. The defenders are once again invited to surrender between 2 pm and
4 pm Moscow time.
Ukraine counter attacks around Kharkiv and Kherson.
What people are saying
Finland and Sweden may apply for NATO membership around 10th July 2022.
Putin has triggered Cold War 2. NATO forces will be
strengthened and there will be tension in countries adjoining Russia for
decades.
China , Brazil and Africa are not interested in the
Russian invasion of Ukraine and simply waiting to see what happens.
Ukraine needs more heavy weapons such as tracked
Howitzers and SU24 ground attack aircraft.
Defence Committee hearing
The Defence Committee chaired by Tobias Ellwood interviewed retired
General Richard Barrons.
Click for UK Defence Committee video on Parliament TV
Barrons suggested that weapons were being supplied to
Ukraine as a delaying action to give time for NATO to reset; Ukraine might
possibly halt the Russian advance, but unlikely to roll it back.
The best scenario was likely to be a military stalemate
by late spring; then possibly an insurgency while Ukraine rearmed with the
intention of throwing Russia out.
Ukraine is using up weapons faster than they can be
supplied.
Should Russia begin to win, NATO would have to decide
whether or not to commit air power and naval forces with boots on the ground
as a last resort.
NATO would have to respond if there was a Russian
incursion into NATO territory, but if this was a minor incursion it might be
met by just a minor response.
Use of Chemical Weapons could be met by cutting all
financial links with Russia and an attack on the source.
Most countries expected to cut ties with Russia were
tactical nuclear weapons to be used.
18th April (day 54)
Comment - the march to war
This year Holy Week in the Orthodox Church in Ukraine
falls a week later than in the UK, and it looks like Putin has chosen this
week to lauch his military offensive in the Donbas.
The drumbeats are getting louder as NATO finds itself
getting dragged into the war in Ukraine. The West cannot afford to let Putin
win; likewise Putin cannot afford to lose face.
Putin has 'thrown down the gauntlet' and challenged the US and
its allies to stop supplying arms; given Russian atrocities in Ukraine the
West should now assume that a negotiated peace is unlikely; this means Putin
will have to be stopped by force of arms. Can the US and NATO help Ukraine
achieve this while containing the conflict within Ukraine so as to avoid a
third world war?
One wonders if:
-
arms can be delivered to Ukraine quickly enough
to hamper Russian lines of communication and either halt or reverse the
Russian offensive;
-
Mariupol can yet be saved;
-
the blockade in the Black Sea can be unblocked..
Today
Phase 2 of the invasion - the expected Russian offensive in
the east of Ukraine appears to have started.
There are reports on the BBC of aircraft
launching missiles with hits on military warehouses in Lviv; missiles also hit other areas
including Kramatorsk and Luhansk.
Click for CNN report - Multiple parts of eastern Ukraine hit by heavier
fighting
Russians are reported to be entering Kreminna but could
they be halted if their lines of supply are interrupted?
Pictures appear of the sinking Russian missile cruiser
Moskva eg:
Click for Daily Mail report on sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva
17th April (day 53)
Easter Sunday in UK.
Russia offers defenders in Mariupol a last chance to
surrender, else there will be
No
Quarter implying combatants are likely to be slaughtered rather
than being taken prisoner. No surrender so a fight to the death looks
likely, as at the Alamo.
There have been air attacks over 3 nights which Russia
says is in response to Ukrainian helicopter attacks on Russian villages but
this is more likely retaliation after the sinking of the Moskva (for
pictures see above).
16th April (day 52)
Russia bans visits by PM Boris Johnson and other politicians
Russia is reported to have cut off the water supply to
the strategic city of Mykolaiv which protects Odessa.
More missile strikes near Kiev and Lviv.
Russians accused of digging up bodies in Mariupol and burning corpses in
truck mounted mobile Crematoria to destroy evidence of war crimes.
Putin says any attack on Russian soil would have grave
consequences - which is pretty cheeky as Russia has attacked and devastated
cities in Ukraine such as Mariupol.
Putin warns US and allies to stop sending arms to
Ukraine.
15th April (day 51)
Clive Myrie talks on BBC Radio 5 about interview with President Zelensky. He
says he looks tired and needs tanks and artillery NOW.
Russian missile attack on factory producing NEPTUNE anti-ship missiles
near Kiev.
Russia warns Finland and Sweden not to join NATO.
Russia accuses Ukraine of attacks by helipcopters on Russian villages.
14th April 2022 (day 50)
Radio 5 breakfast news reports that the Russian Missile
Cruiser Moskva is on fire in the Black Sea. Ukraine claims to have hit the
ship with
Neptune Cruise Missiles.
Click for BBC report - Russian warship Moskva: What do we know?
Later in the day the Moskva sinks while being towed back to port.
At 7:42 am Frank Gardner said on BBC
Radio 5
Live Breakfast that there had been an operational pause in the fighting
while Russia licked its wounds and regrouped ready for the expected big
battle in the Donbas; the result of which may decide the outcome of the war.
What has Russia achieved so far?
-
Over 10,000 Russian troops killed.
-
Sanctions.
-
Lost a lot of generals.
-
Lasting enmity of most Ukrainians - except dissidents
in the self proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russia continues to attack key points with missiles, with
special focus on taking Mariupol.
USA approves $800M aid package for Ukraine.
The three main areas of support for Ukraine are:
-
weapons, military training, and battlefield
intelligence;
-
sanctions;
-
refugees and humanitarian aid.
Russia says vehicles carrying US and NATO military aid
within Ukraine will be legitimate targets.
Click for Aljazeera - Ukraine war news
13th April 2022 (day 49)
President Biden says Putin's invasion of Ukraine amounts
to genocide, after seeing reports from Bucha and surrounds.
It can therefore be assumed Biden now supports the ramping up of weaponry,
such as MIG29s.
Professor
Gwythian Prins
speaking on Radio Hereford and Worcester at 08:42 this morning said he did
not disagree with Biden, but Putin could certainly be accused of the crime
of aggression. The West now needs to be prepared for war
with Russia, should it come to that.
Putin is aiming for a five to one force advantage so he
can take the Donbas, but Gwythian Prins seems to think that the smaller but
better trained Ukrainian army still has a chance of halting and possibly
defeating the Russian army in the east. That's difficult to imagine seeing
videos of large convoys being brought into theatre by the Russians, but who
knows what armaments are on their way from the West?
Click for Aljazeera report - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: List of key
events on day 49
Click for Voice of America - Latest Developments in Ukraine: April 13
12th April 2022 (day 48)
The governor of Belgorod (in Russia to
the north of Kharkiv) said that train tracks in the Shebekinsky district
were damaged - possibly by Ukrainian forces attempting to delay Russian
reinforcements on their way to Izium.
Reports of Russian soldiers raping Ukrainian women may be
investigated by the UN.
Unconfirmed reports of the use of chemical weapons in
Mariupol, after articles in Pravda suggesting the defenders need to be 'smoked
out'. Ukrainian marines in Mariupol said to be running low on supplies.
Therefore a good chance Putin will be able to declare the seizure of
Mariupol at his May Day Victory parade.
Kharkiv continues to be shelled and was hit by cluster
munitions yesterday. The towns of Rubizhne and Papasna nearer Luhansk are
also being shelled
Click for Aljazeera report - Kyiv warns Russia planning large assault in
eastern Ukraine
The BBC reported Russian tanks advancing towards the
front-line near Luhansk this morning.
Putin says he will continue until his all his goals are
achieved - but pundits are unsure what Putin's goals are. Will he settle for
taking more of the Donbas and Mariupol or will he attempt to push further
out to Dnipro and Odessa. No doubt that will very much depend on the
resistance he meets and only time will tell.
11th April 2022 (day 47)
Large Russian convoy of lorries and armoured personnel
carriers seen passing through Matveev Kurgan presumably on its way to
reinforce Donetsk.
Click for BBC update on the situation in Ukraine
Click for Voice of America report - Latest Developments in Ukraine: April 11
2022
10th April 2022 (day 46)
More Russian atrocities reported at Makariv near Bucha.
Russian rocket attacks destroy Dnipro airport.
Click for Aljazeera report - Russian rockets destroy airport in Ukrainian
city of Dnipro
A large 8 mile Russian armoured convoy was seen near
Velkyi Burku 2 days ago believed to be headed for Izium, where a possible
attack on Sloviansk is likely - part of a move to gain more ground around
Donetsk and Luhansk.
Twitter reports residents of the Kursk region waving off Russian soldiers
going to war in Ukraine.
Many Russians still believe Putin's propaganda and don't
see the damage he is doing or believe srories of atrocities.
Comment
The situation has been relatively quiet for a few days
while the Russians withdraw from the north of Ukraine and bring in
reinforcements in the east. A new general
Alexander Dvornikov has been brought in to coordinate the invasion of
Ukraine.
The terrain in east Ukraine is flat so there is bound to
be a lot of bloodshed on both sides if Russia seeks to gain further
territory, as no doubt it will in pursuance of Putin's desire for a 'May
Day' victory.
Military aid from Western nations has a long way to go
the reach the frontline in the east, so there is now likely to be a race on
both sides to see who can get the upper hand.
9th April 2022 (day45)
The media reports PM Boris Johnson's visit to meet
President Zelensky in Ukraine.
Britain promises more military aid; the media speculates
this may include 120 armoured vehicles and HARPOON anti-ship missiles to see
off the Russian Navy blockading Odessa.
8th April 2022 (day 44)
Rocket attack on Kramatorsk railway station where several
thousand people were waiting to be evacuated; 52 killed and 100
wounded.
Click for BBC report - Rockets hits Kramatorsk station
Britain to provide more military aid to Ukraine
Click for government press release - UK to bolster defensive aid to Ukraine
with new £100m package
7th April 2022 (day 43)
The UN votes by a narrow margin to suspend Russia from
the Human Rights Council. 58 countries abstained, including Syria and many
African countries receiving aid from Russia.
More Russian atrocities reported in
Borodyanka.
Pundits think it will take at least a week for Russia to
bring in reinforcements in the east, and that Putin may want a big victory
to announce at the May Day parade on the 9th May.
Others suggest that the West should think carefully about
the outcome of the war. Would a crushing defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine
be a good outcome, or should Putin be allowed a way out that he can claim as
a victory for his Special Operation. This may influence the type and number
of heavy weapons supplied to Ukraine which they need now to repel the
expected Russian attack in the Donbas.
Looking at a
map of
Ukraine the towns likely to come under attack in April include,
Click for Guardian article - As Ukraine war enters new phase, can western
arms turn the tide?
Click for another map from the Political Geography Now website showing
population centres of east Ukraine dated September 2020
6th April 2022 (day 42)
A Red Cross team leads a convoy of buses and private cars
with between 500 and 1,000 people from Mariupol to Zaporizhzhia.
A Russian spearhead is by-passing Kharkiv to the SE and
there is fierce fighting around
Izium; the
next step south would be to capture
Sloviansk.
Civilians are urged to leave the Donbas region while they
can as a renewed Russian assault is expected.
The UN is to vote on suspending Russia from the Human
Rights Council tomorrow.
The Czech Republic has offered to supply Ukraine with
some T72 tanks and other vehicles.
5th April 2022 (day 41)
President Zelenky briefs the UN about Russian atrocities
and asks if the UN should dissolve itself should it be powerless to act. He
suggests Russia is expelled from the Security Council.
The media is full of stories about Russian atrocities.
Street fighting continues in the area of Rubizhne and
Popasna (Luhansk region) in east Ukraine, and Mariupol continues to be
bombarded.
The Daily Express thinks the story of the surrender of
267 Ukrainian marines to Russian forces in Mariupol is Fake News.
4th April 2022 (day 40)
Many media stories about Russian atrocities in
Hostomel, Bucha and Irpen; for example the murder of civilians with their hands bound behind their backs.
Russia says the killing of civilians is fake news and
they have instead brought aid; few believe it.
US senators are strongly united in
saying Putin must be dealt with. President Biden praises Boris Johnson for
taking the lead in supporting Ukraine.
Civilians being evacuated from the city of
Kramatorsk north of Donetsk in expectation of a Russian attack.
Shelling of civilian areas of Kharkiv continues.
Click
for BBC update on the War in Ukraine
A concise summary of the military situation can be found
on The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) website:
Click for - Russian Offensive Campaign assessment 3rd April 2022
3rd April 2022 (day 39)
The media leads with stories of Russian atrocities in Bucha to the NW of
Kiev.
Missiles hit oil refineries and depots in Odessa.
The newspapers remind us that the Black Sea is mined and
that the Russian is preventing goods coming into Ukraine by sea.
Russia says it is too soon for Putin to meet Zelensky for
peace talks. Putin obviously hope to steal more territory, including
Mariupol.
Russia still preventing Red Cross access to Mariupol.
President Zelensky raises issue of rebuilding after the
war.
2nd April 2022 (day 38)
Russian troops are now either retreating or pulling back
north of Kiev, and President Zelensky is expecting a more concerted attack
in the east once Russia has regrouped. Russia is alleged to have hired
ruthless Wagner mercenaries to join the fight.
Pundits are thinking Ukraine must obtain a decisive
victory in order to bring the Russians to the
negotiating table and for this to happen the West will have to increase the
supply of heavy weaponry to Ukraine.
The port of Mariupol remains a key objective for the
Russians.
Click for BBC report - Why Mariupol is so important to Russia's plan
Putin is maintaining his grip on the outskirts of
Mariupol, planning to bombard and starve out the Ukrainian Azov Brigade.
They are reputed to be fearsome fighters and obviously the Russians
are not prepared to take them on in hand-to-hand fighting in order to secure
the port.
The Red Cross is eager to bring in humanitarian aid from
Zaporizhzhia for the starving population of Mariupol but we think
Putin will have none of that until either the city falls or Ukraine
sends in a relief column.
There has been a prisoner swap with 86 Ukranian soldiers
returned.
Civilians murdered by the retreating Russian army have been found lying by the roadside in
Bucha to the west of Kiev.
Click for LBC report - Russian troops accused of slaughtering civilians as
they withdraw from Bucha near Kyiv
The Ukrainian Red Cross has delivered humanitarian aid to
Okhtyrka in Sumy province to the north. Aid was also delivered to Severodetsk and
Lysychansk in the east of Ukraine not far from occupied Luhansk.
Red Cross was prevented from entering Mariupol for a third time.
Maks Levin's body is found near Kiev; he is the sixth journalist to have
died in Ukraine and it is suspected he was murdered by the Russians.
1st April 2022 (day 37)
Red Cross prevented from entering Mariupol by Russians.
Russian troops occupying the former nuclear power plant at Chernobyl have
left, the plant's staff say.
A Russian official says two Ukrainian army helicopters
attacked a Russian fuel depot on April 1 in the Russian city of Belgorod,
located north of Kharkiv.
On 29 March explosions had been reported at an ammunition
depot near Belgorod.
31st March 2022 (day 36)
A day marked by outspoken briefings suggesting Russia could lose this
war.
Sir Jeremy Fleming, Director of GCHQ the United Kingdom’s
intelligence, cyber and security agency spoke to the Australian National
University (ANU)
National Security College on 31 March 2022
Click for YouTube video - GCHQ Director Sir Jeremy Fleming on the
'generational upheaval' of global security
Click for full text of Director GCHQ's speech on global security amid war in
Ukraine
To quote a piece that has appeared in news reports:
That said, it increasingly looks like Putin has massively
misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the
Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his
actions would galvanise. He under-played the economic consequences of the
sanctions regime. He over-estimated the abilities of his military to secure
a rapid victory. We’ve seen Russian soldiers – short of weapons and morale -
refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even
accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.
Minister of Defence Ben Wallace said 'Russia's ambitions
to take Kyiv and the whole of the country quickly have fallen apart and in
many ways Vladimir Putin has already lost'.
Click for Sky News report
The Chief of Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radikin
addressed the Institute for Government and also said 'in many ways Putin has
already lost'.
Click for YouTube video - The future of UK defence: In conversation with
David Williams and Admiral Sir Tony Radakin
Beth Rigby interviews:-
Beth Rigby talks to the Mayor of Kiev Vitali Klitschko who
says he's ready to die for his country
Ex boxer Vitali Klitschko doesn't want to see Ukrainian
land gifted to Russia as a 'compromise' after so many Ukranians have given
their lives in defence of their country. What compromise he says, Russia
takes, and gives nothing.
Beth Rigby talks to ex MI6 officer Christopher Steele who said he can't see
a way back for Putin
An Australian website carried two articles the first of
which says Putin has made a big mistake, and the second that Ukraine must be
prepared to compromise.
Vladimir Putin made a terrible mistake, and his concessions on Ukraine are a
sign of his weakened position By Patrick Cockburn
Time to talk peace terms with Russia by Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia
University, New York
Ukraine is reported to have retaken the towns of Sloboda
and Luhashivka south of Chernihiv.
Click for Radio Free Europe report - Ukraine Has Retaken Villages Of
Sloboda, Lukashivka, says British Intelligence
A Red Cross convoy planned to enter Mariupol with
supplies and lead civilians out, but has been blocked; will try again
tomorrow. The Russians will oppose supplies being taken in - they are trying
to starve out the defenders.
Putin decrees gas must be paid for in Roubles, but EU
says no.
Britain sanctions 'Butcher of Mariupol' Russian general
Mikhail Mizintsev accused of massacring 300 civilians in theatre
attack; the head of Russia Today, and 12 more Kremlin allies as Liz Truss
blasts Putin's 'torrent of lies' about the invasion of Ukraine.
Click for Daily Mail report
30th March 2022 (day 35)
Russia said it would reduce military combat
operations around the capital Kyiv and northern city of Chernihiv. This may
simply be acceptance of the fact the Russian advance has been stopped by
Ukrainian forces.
Click for BBC report - Russia says it will curb Kyiv assault as peace talks
progress
There has been speculation in recent days that Russia
will start a pincer movement bringing troops down from near Kharkiv
and up from Kherson in an attempt to surround Ukraine
troops in the east and capture as much of the Donbas and
Ukrainian territory alongside the Back Sea as possible, including the port
of Mariupol in order to provide a land corridor between The
Crimea and the west Russian border.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said that shelling
of the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol will only end when Ukrainian
troops surrender.
Click for BBC report - Putin demands Mariupol surrender to end shelling
The BBC reports shelling close to the rural town of
Orikhiv which lies to the east of Zaporizhzia and north of Melitopol.
Presumably from Russian forces from Crimea which have taken Kherson and
Melitopol in the SE and now hope to advance northwards.
Estimates of how much longer the war will go on for range
from one to several months. Some pundits think sanctions will not work and
that Russia will find alternative markets for example in China and India.
Others suggest that there could be a finite limit to the military aid given
to Ukraine.
It is likely Putin will keep the war going for as long as
it takes for him to capture a large chunk of east Ukraine. He is gradually
destroying cities, military facilities and fuel depots. Russia has suffered
losses of men and equipment but has more and its factories and military
facilities are intact. It's therefore difficult to see how Ukraine can 'win'
without the West giving Ukraine enough firepower to dislodge the Russians
from Mariupol and Kherson.
Their are reports the Kiev Regional Military
Administration's official website is currently being targeted by a
Cyber-attack.
29th March 2022 (day 34)
Peace talks hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan were held in Istanbul on the opposite side of the Black sea to
Ukraine and Russia. Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and owner of
Chelsea Football Club appeared possibly as a mediator; his exact role is not
known.
We found a good map on the Reddit website showing the
location of Ukrainian towns and cities:
Click for map
- current state of the Russian Invasion to 10th March 2022
Comment
It seems to us that Putin could emerge as the victor from
this conflict by capturing a land corridor from Russia to the Crimea taking
in the ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk, and gaining an assurance that
Ukraine would never join NATO.
By way of doing this he will have killed tens of
thousands counting both Russian and Ukrainian dead, injured and maimed
perhaps 3 times as many, destroyed homes, cities, factories and military
facilities, caused 4 million refugees to flee Ukraine and perhaps another 6
million to move within Ukraine. After causing all that murder and mayhem we
wonder whether or not he will get off 'Scot free' and die of old age before
being brought to account.
28th March 2022 (day 33)
The stalemate continues.
Ukraine claims to have liberated Trostyanets and Borovlya
between Sumy and Kharkiv in the north; the Russians are being pressed at
Brovary which lies 12 miles NE of Kiev (16 miles by road). Ukraine also
claims to have recaptured Irpin which lies 13 miles to the west of Kiev (17
miles by road).
The siege of Mariupol continues. Zelensky says he is
prepared for Ukraine to become a neutral country, not join NATO, not have
nuclear weapons, and the future of the Donbas region to be discussed.
Pundits suggest the Ukrainian situation can only get
worse as Putin has a bigger army, and that Putin unlikely to negotiate until
he has captured more territory eg the Donbas and SE, including the port of
Mariupol.
A lone pundit suggests Ukraine could still 'win', though
that has a hollow ring when homes, factories and cities are being destroyed
by Putin.
President Biden is quoted as saying Putin is a butcher
and 'for God's sake this man cannot remain in power'. For that he is heavily
criticised by the press, including Freddy Gray of The Spectator, who may be
scared of Putin, but Biden reflects what the public thinks.
Click below for report on recent events in the Spanish newspaper El
Pais:-
The Ukraine war in maps: Russian troops only make progress in Mariupol
27th March 2022 (day 32)
No significant events.
26th March 2022 (day 31)
'The stalemate continues, while we wait for Putin's next
move'. That statement suggests Putin is 'pulling the levers' whereas better
Ukraine and the West now control events and Putin is kept on the back-foot.
The West is firmly united against Putin, while other
countries such as India and China are sitting on the sidelines.
Will Putin have one last push to try to take Kiev and
Odessa before a ceasefire has to be declared?
The PM thinks Putin is doubling down and can't afford to
lose face - so it's difficult to predict where this is going to go.
Russian missiles hit fuel depot and fighter jet repair
facility in outskirts of Lviv.
25th March 2022 (day 30)
Russia says the first phase of the war is over and it will now focus on
the 'complete liberation' of the eastern Donbas region.
No doubt Putin will want to grab as much land as he can
including the Ukrainian coast line from the Sea of Azov to Odessa.
However The Pentagon has said Ukrainian forces could
re-take the southern city of Kherson, which was one of the
first cities Russian forces took in the early days of the war.
Dramatic footage from Alex Crawford on late night Sky News as news-team
attempted to reach the city of Chernihiv but had to withdraw due to
shelling.
Click for Sky News report - No way out for 150,000 people trapped in
city of 'hell' Chernihiv - as Russian forces bomb last bridge standing
Russian cruise missiles hit airforce command post at Vinnytsia a town where
in 1937 Stalin instigated the execution of 10,000 Ukrainians, Poles and
dissidents in the
Great Purge.
24th March 2022 (day 29)
President Biden in Brussels for NATO, G7 and European Council
Summits about the war in Ukraine.
Click for White House statement
Ukrainian forces sank the Russian landing craft Orsk
which had arrived in the occupied port of Berdyansk 3 days
ago.
Click for report on Twitter
Ukrainian forces are trying to push the Russians out of Irpin
which is 13 miles west of Kiev (17 miles by car).
Click for BBC report - Return to Irpin, the town destroyed in the battle for
Kyiv
The cities of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv to the north
are surrounded by Russian forces.
The port of Berdyansk in the south east with access to
the Sea of Azov was taken early in the war. The city port of
Mariupol is surrounded and partly taken over by Russian forces who
have installed a puppet mayor. The Russians are attempting to starve out the
remaining population and defenders.
It looks as though Putin's chief aim is to cut off Ukraine
from the Sea of Azov, and Black Sea, including the port of Odessa
if he can.
Mykolaiv is a key town blocking the
Russian advance to Odessa.
Slightly to the north of Mikolaiv Russians headed to Kiev
from the south were stopped at Vozenensk where the
Ukrainian defenders saw off a small armoured column and blew the
road-bridge.
23rd March 2022 (day 28)
Opinion amongst pundits is that sadly this war could
reach stalemate and
grind on for a long time. That's not going to benefit anybody except
possibly the companies producing weapons and arms dealers.
Click for an Australian's view of the war in Ukraine
Note: an article about 'Ukraine’s tragedy and its implications'
by Percy Allan who
explains his observations (and worries) about the escalating war in Europe’s
biggest breadbasket and largest country by area (after Russia).
It has been reported that Russia threatens to use nuclear
weapons if confronted with an existential threat. This has always been the
case and smacks of mischievous newspaper reporters unnecessarily 'stirring
things up'.
Moscow geography teacher Kamran Manafly has been sacked
after refusing to toe the Kremlin’s line on Ukraine. A reminder that in Russia under Putin
free speech is not allowed. Elderly Russians mostly believe Putin's propaganda, while
younger people with access to the Internet have a more open mind; some
disgusted by gagging of the press are leaving Russia.
Click for BBC report - War in Ukraine: Anti-war opinions can cost Russians
their jobs
It is reported one of Putin's chums Russian climate change envoy Anatoly
Chubais has stood down from his post and fled Russia.
Poland expels 45 Russian diplomats.
Click for Aljazeera report - Poland expels '45 Russian spies pretending to
be diplomats'
President Biden arrives in Brussels for NATO conference.
Click for Aljazeera report - Russia-Ukraine live news: Biden lands in
Brussels for NATO summit
It is rumoured the US has suggested Russia should be expelled from the G20
but China is likely to oppose such a move. We wonder if Putin would venture
to G20 meetings outside Russia this year given the possibility of either
being arrested and charged with war crimes, or facing assassination.
22nd March 2022 (day 27)
Biden warns Russia may use Biological or Chemical weapons.
Biden says US must prepare for Cyber attacks.
Fighting around Kiev continues. Ukraine takes back the
town of Makariv, but residents are advised to leave Boryspil and its airport
where fighting is expected.
Russians increase air activity.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio
Guterres has urged Russia to end its 'absurd war' in Ukraine,
warning that the conflict is 'going nowhere fast' and that the Ukrainian
people are 'enduring a living hell'.
Ukrainian forces rout Russian probe and blows
bridge at Vozenensk.
Click for BBC report - The small town which managed to block Russia's big
plans
21st March 2022 (day 26)
Comment
Mariupol refuses a Russian invitation to surrender, so we
could soon be witnessing a re-enactment of the
Battle of the Alamo in 1836 but on a much larger scale; the difference
is there are many civilians in Mariupol. However further attacks on the port
will likely only stiffen Ukrainian resolve.
The situation can also be likened to the battle for
Singapore in 1942.
The hit and run tactics of the Ukrainian forces mirror
early tactics during the American War of Independence when it was the French
Navy that assisted the Americans ultimately defeat the British. However the
Ukrainians may need more arms and a step up in capability if they are to
harry lines of supply enough to cause surrounded Russian battle groups to
surrender.
It's just possible unrest in the Russian military caused
by high casualties in Ukraine allied to civilian unrest linked to rising
prices and sanctions might then lead to another 'Russian Revolution', Putin
being toppled and truly democratic elections in Russia.
On a Sky News TV clip last night it was reported Russians
near Kharkiv had been invited to collect their dead, but the Russians
callously said 'they had no further need for them'.
Click for Sky News report - Ukraine war: Chaotic shelling in Kharkiv as
Russia accused of refusing to repatriate dead soldiers
Today
Ammonia plant near Sumy in NE Ukraine attacked.
Click for Guardian report
Russian warships shell residential buildings on the
outskirts of Odesa according to Serhiy Bratchuk, spokesman for the Odesa
Oblast Military Administration.
The
Jerusalem Post reports landing ships bringing in supplies at the
Ukrainian port of Berdyansk. Quote:
A Russian landing ship entered the Ukrainian port of
Berdyansk on Monday, delivering ammunition and equipment to Russian forces
in occupied Ukrainian territory, Interfax reported.
According to Zvezda another ten vessels were delivering
equipment following the initial landing. Berdyansk is a Ukrainian city in on
the coast of the Sea of Azov, west of the encircled city of Mariupol.
The Orsk, an
Alligator class landing ship, is capable of carrying
significant amounts of vehicles and supplies.
See also Rob Lee's Twitter
20th March 2022 (day 25)
Comment
It's Sunday, the Russian advance has slowed but air attacks continue
both on key facilities and civilians; Russian forces look set to capture the
strategic port of Mariupol.
It's likely Putin's forces are pausing to regroup while waiting for
reinforcements; so there could be worse bloodshed to come.
The Ukrainians had been asking and hoping for other
nations to join them in the fight against Putin but they are beginning to
realise NATO nations are extremely reluctant to join in.
On the other hand, the public in many countries are
putting increasing pressure on politicians to adopt a tougher line with
Putin.
Recent events
Ukrainian forces are said to be close to losing the key
Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol where fierce fighting continues; the mayor
says thousands of captured civilians are being taken to Russia and
dispersed. Rescue of several hundred people trapped in the basement of the
bombed theatre is proving difficult due to the fighting.
An art school which was sheltering 400 civilians in
Mariupol was destroyed by a series of Russian strikes.
Yesterday, it was confirmed a Russian missile
struck a military barracks in the southern city of Mykolaiv, where 200
soldiers were sleeping causing heavy casualties.
Ukrainian officials say 56 people were killed during an
attack on an old folks home in Kreminna, eastern Ukraine.
It was reported that Russia used the Kinzhal
(Dagger) hypersonic missile to destroy a Ukrainian fuel depot in
Kostiantynivka near the Black Sea port of Mykolaiv.
The previous day, the Russian military said the
Kinzhal had been used for the first time in combat to destroy an underground
ammunition depot in Diliatyn, Ivano-Frankivsk in the Carpathian Mountains in
western Ukraine (to the south of Lviv)
Russia says cruise missiles were launched from waters of
the Black Sea against the Nizhyn plant (north east of Kiev) that repairs
Ukrainian armoured vehicles damaged in fighting.
Air-launched missiles hit a facility in Ovruch in the
northern Zhytomyr region where foreign fighters and Ukrainian special forces
were located.
Elsewhere Ukrainian forces are hitting back.
In Belarus, to conceal the death toll, the Russians are
putting the bodies of casualties onto trains, during the hours of darkness,
for return to Russia.
Click for Daily Mail report - Putin's convoy of corpses
19th March 2022 (day 24)
Ex Prime Ministers
John
Major and
Gordon
Brown suggest an International Tribunal is set up to investigate Vladimir Putin's
activities on the lines of the
Nuremburg Trials.
President Zelensky has offered concessions but we are not aware of any
yet offered by the Russians.
Click for Aljazeera report - Russia's invasion of Ukraine: List of key
events from day 24
It appears for the time being Ukraine has lost control of the port of
Mariupol.
18th March 2022 (day 23)
Small gains by Russian forces, which remain largely stalled.
Fierce fighting continues over the town of Izyum near
Kharkiv. BBC Radio 5 reported this morning Izyum had been taken by the
Russians but we don't know whether that is true or speculation.
Russia increases its stranglehold on the port of Mariupol
planning to starve the defenders into submission, having already destroyed
most of the city. Clearly Russia wants to capture the whole of the south
east blocking Ukraine from the sea, land which if taken Russia would
probably never give back.
The battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces for
control of Mariupol has now reached the city center, according to the Mayor
Vadym Boichenko. Russian troops have besieged the port along the Sea of Azov
for weeks and have isolated it from the rest of Ukrainian-controlled areas
in the southern part of the country. Getting control of Mariupol is a top
priority for Russia since it would complete a land-bridge between the
Russian-backed separatist states in the Donbas region and Crimea.
Some survivors from the basement of the bombed theatre in
Mariupol have been found but more rubble needs to be cleared; shelling is
making the rescue difficult.
Russian cruise missiles destroyed an aircraft repair facility near Lviv
airport.
Click for BBC report - Russia destroys aircraft repair plant near western
city of Lviv
Biden talks to the President of China amid concerns China might give
Russia military aid.
Peace talks continue but we think this could be a smokescreen. Likely
Putin is bringing in reinforcements and planning his next move. He is proud
and over-confident; he will not stop until he is stopped by others.
Today, copying Hitler, Putin held a packed Rally
and Concert in Moscow to celebrate the anniversary of illegally
taking The Crimea. State workers were bussed in to help fill the seats.
Click
for BBC report - Vladimir Putin praises Russian unity at Moscow mass rally
India Today carries 'jazzed-up' reports on the invasion.
Google India Today YouTube videos to find them. For example:
Day 23
Of Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine - India Today
17th March 2022 (day 22)
The morning news led with the joyous arrival of Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Anoosheh Ashoori reunited with their families after
years being held hostage in Iran.
Click for
BBC report
The Kremlin appears incensed by President Biden calling
Vladimir Putin a 'war criminal' yesterday.
Click for Aljazeera report - Russia decries Putin ‘war criminal’
allegation
Aljazeera also carries an update on the invasion:
Russia-Ukraine live news: Deadly Kyiv strike, invasion ‘stalled’
The BBC mulls over what Putin wants in this article:
Click for BBC article - What does Putin want and will Russia end its war?
One wonders whether in the meantime Putin will attempt an
amphibious landing to block Ukraine's access to ports on the Black Sea, and
then attempt to keep the captured territory.
Putin must be very angry: his invasion of Ukraine is not
going to plan, he is called a war criminal, and sanctions are beginning to
hurt Russia. Much of the world has turned against him and NATO seems likely
to increase defence spending in view of his unprovoked attack.
Perhaps it is time for Putin to go and for a new leader
to introduce democratic reforms; perhaps developing friendly relations with
neighbouring countries, rather than restoring the Iron Curtain and Cold War.
16th March 2022 (day 21)
Not so much about Ukraine on early morning Radio 5 news.
President Zelensky thinks some progress is being made with the peace talks.
He says he accepts the door has now been shut on joining NATO, but that
other bilateral allegiances might be set up (eg JEF see link below).
Prime Minister to host Nordic and Baltic leaders as he pushes to bolster
European resilience and defence
The Ukrainian side suggests Kiev is now a fortress and
Russia cannot take Ukraine - but Russia appears to have taken firm control of
areas close to the border with Russia and pundits think Ukraine may have to give up some
territory so Putin can claim a victory before withdrawing his troops.
It could be Putin is not interested in negotiations and
is just biding his time before his next atrocity. We'll just have to hope moral and financial pressure from other countries can bring
this invasion to a halt without further bloodshed.
Later in the day
President Zelensky addresses the US Congress, and at the end a video is
shown portraying towns and cities before and after Russian attacks.
Zelensky still says he needs to protect the sky, but this
may have to be achieved using surface to air missiles rather than NATO
aircraft.
President Biden makes a
speech branding Putin a war criminal, and authorises more weapons and
aid for Ukraine.
The BBC reports that 4 Russian Generals have now been killed
A third Mayor is arrested by the Russians, but another,
Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov, has been exchanged for nine captured Russian
soldiers.
A theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were
sheltering in a basement, was bombed and destroyed, despite large lettering
painted on the ground saying CHILDREN in Russian.
10 people standing in line for bread in Chernihiv were
either shot or killed by a missile strike on an adjacent building.
Click for a video being shared on Twitter. Later the death toll was
updated to 13.
The evening news briefly reported attacks on shipping in
the Black Sea; this may have been referring to an article in the Guardian
reporting seamen stranded by a Russian Navy blockade of Ukrainian ports.
Click for Guardian article - Calls for ‘blue corridor’ to let stranded
seafarers leave Ukraine war zone
Claimed Russian losses
Losses of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, March 15, as claimed by
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; try this Twitter link
https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1503665845234552832
15th March 2022 (day 20)
The Russian advance seems to have stalled in the last
couple of days. A possible explanation is that Russian troops are running
low on supplies.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defence has claimed 150 Russian
troops were killed after trying to take control of the port city of
Mariupol.
The breaking news last night, and being discussed this
morning, is about a very brave Russian TV editor, Marina Ovsyannikova,
who held up a placard during the News.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine war: Journalist who protested on Russian TV
detained
BBC Radio 5 reports another Russian TV presenter has left
the country and resigned as a result of Putin gagging news media.
Hanna Liubakova
a journalist from Minsk, Belarus has begun broadcasting about the Ukraine
war on Twitter.
We don't know whether there is anti-Russian sentiment in
Belarus, but the president
Aleksandr Lukashenko is one of Putin's henchmen. He was elected to the
post in 1994 and is now serving his sixth term; perhaps it is time for
democratic elections.
There were reports yesterday of a long queue of lorries
in Poland held up by demonstrators at the Belarus border who are attempting
to stop cargo trucks they say are headed for Ukraine via Belarus with
supplies for the Russian army.
One hopes the cargos are being checked and if appropriate
the lorries are diverted to Ukraine to provide aid for civilians and the
military.
Perhaps sanctions should be imposed on Belarus as
well as Russia?
China appears to be distancing itself from the conflict
adopting a neutral position until it sees 'which way the land lies'.
Click for Sky News report - Ukraine war: China's reaction to invasion has
been defined by inaction but its influence is limited.
It sounds like the Chinese media is censored and ordinary
people see little of what is going on.
Click for BBC report about today's events in Ukraine
The BBC reports 2 journalists working for Fox News have
been killed by Russian troops.
Click for BBC report - Fox News' Pierre Zakrzewski and Oleksandra Kuvshinova
killed in Kyiv
Fox News had said on Tuesday that cameraman
Pierre Zakrzewski was killed near Kiev while covering the war in
Ukraine. Pierre Zakrzewski was accompanying journalist Benjamin Hall, who
was wounded when their vehicle came under fire Monday in Horenka, near Kiev.
Mention on BBC news today of the PM attending a Joint
Expeditionary Force, London 2022 event. Below is a link to a government
press statement explaining what is going on:
Prime Minister to host Nordic and Baltic leaders as he pushes to bolster
European resilience and defence
See also
EuroNews report, quote:
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the country
realises that it can’t join NATO. Speaking Tuesday to representatives of the
UK led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF), Zelenskyy said that 'we heard for
years about the allegedly open doors of NATO, but we have already heard
that we won’t be able to join'.
He added that 'it’s the truth we must recognize, and I’m
glad that our people are starting to realize that and count on themselves
and our partners who are helping us.' The JEF may consist of Denmark,
Finland, Estonia, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Sweden and
Norway.
Click for Bob Seely MP views on Putin's aims
The BBC reports more than 100,000 people have offered
rooms for Ukranian refugees.
Click for
BBC report - Homes for Ukraine refugee scheme launches in UK
14th March 2022 (day 19)
More shelling, but otherwise nothing new to report.
Professor
Gwthian Prins said on Radio 5 that Putin would
likely lose, and he thought a no-fly zone or similar could be achieved by
the UN enacting Article 45 allowing creation, in an emergency, of a UN
airforce.
Rumours Russian forces are running low on ammunition and
don't have enough troops fully to encircle the Ukranian army on all fronts.
There will be a race to see who can get resupplied most
quickly, if there is no ceasefire.
Zelensky claims negotiations could result in a ceasefire
in the next few days; others say Putin wants to press on with his war and is
using negotiations as a delaying tactic while he brings in reinforcements.
About 160 cars are able to exit
Mariupol
population 400,000 while the remainder are being starved to death by the
beseiging Russian forces. Without water people will die from dehydration in
a little over a week; and with no food inhabitants will increasingly starve
to death after 40 days. Like Hitler, evil Putin is pursuing a policy of mass
murder. The Jewish population was wiped out by Hitler in WWII.
The UK media mainly discusses plans for householders to
put up refugees in spare rooms, for which the government will pay £350 per
month. 20,000 offers to date and 4,000 refugees have been granted asylum.
Homes for
Ukraine webpage
13th March 2022 (18)
Comment
Despite strong words of support, and the misery Putin is
causing to millions of civilians in Ukraine, President Biden sadly is still not prepared to
intervene directly to protect civilians. Quote:
We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine.
Direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is World War Three, something
we must strive to prevent.
Just the words Putin wants to hear. Biden has given Putin
the green light. However Biden goes on to say, quote:
And I also want to be clear though: We will make sure
Ukraine has weapons to defend against an invading Russian force. We will send money and food and aid to save the Ukrainian
people. And I will welcome the Ukrainian refugees. We should welcome them
here with open arms if they need access.
While Biden says this, it looks as though he is not prepared
to support donation of MIG-29 aircraft from Poland; and as regards food aid, there seems little prospect
at present of getting that to towns such as Mariupol that badly need it and
which are besieged by the Russia army; especially bearing in mind the
problems already encountered by the International Committee of the Red
Cross.
Further, Putin is threatening to attack Western convoys
taking weapons into Ukraine, so Biden may find either NATO or the USA in
direct confrontation with Russia whether he likes it or not (remember
Pearl Harbour).
Biden says 'Russia would pay a severe price if they used chemical
weapons'. But that is likely all bluster and an empty threat. Obama used similar
words about events in Syria and did nothing when his red line was crossed.
Click below for full White House briefing on 11th March
2022:
Remarks by President Biden Announcing Actions to Continue to Hold
Russia Accountable
In our opinion President Biden and NATO have to
be prepared to intervene more directly in order to force Putin to the negotiating
table. But what do we know.....
Today
Yavoriv training facility near Lviv and Polish border hit by about 30
cruise missiles launched by bombers in Russian territory.
US journalist Brent Renaud is shot dead by Russian troops
near Irpin.
Town of Valnovakha reported destroyed.
Another mayor abducted - this time it's Yevhen Matveyev from the
southern city of Dniprorudne.
Mayor Ivan Fedorov was abducted by Russian troops on 10
March. He has since been replaced by a new mayor -
Halyna Danilchenko - who appears to be a Russian puppet. She appeared on
local TV to urge Melitopol’s citizens to not take part in "extremist
actions", introduced a curfew and banned protests.
12th March 2022 (day 17)
Many wars are a close run thing and it's not obvious
Putin can win if Ukrainian forces can continue to hamper the Russians with
hit and run tactics and cut off resupply of food, fuel and ammunition at
their rear.
Ambushing Russian convoys is probably the best tactic as
losses could be high defending fixed positions. It is doubtful Ukraine has
the firepower to push Russia out, but possibly Ukraine can make life so
uncomfortable that some of the Russian troops will either become POWs or
mutiny and go home; more likely the situation will reach stalemate and there
will ultimately have to be a peace settlement.
President Macron of France phoned Mr Putin today
proposing a ceasefire but it is reported Putin showed no willingness to end
the war.
We wonder what Putin's henchmen are thinking. Firstly the
Defence Minister General
Sergei
Shoigu and second Chief of Staff General
Valery Gerasimov. Did they promise Putin a quick win and if so are their
heads now on the block for not delivering? What of the elite such as the
heads of the FSB and GRU; are they thinking it's time for Putin to be
removed, for example by imprisonment for illegally invading another country.
An article in the Guardian which is several days old
questions the effectiveness of the Russian forces:
Click for Guardian article - Russia’s callousness towards its own soldiers
is undermining its combat power
while another asks whether it is time for NATO to stand
up to Putin and tell him to cease what he is doing or face the consequences:
Time for NATO to find a way out of the escalation trap in Ukraine
Putin is now threatening Finland and Sweden, and to
attack Western convoys taking weapons into Ukraine.
Then there is concern Putin may use chemical weapons such
as chlorine gas or
Novichock
nerve agents, which have already been used by assassins in Salisbury, to
finish cities quickly, which would result in massive civilian loss of life.
Given the atrocities that Putin has committed to
date it is time for Biden to tell Putin that either he orders a cease fire
or NATO will put a 'peace keeping' force into Ukraine to protect civilians
and render humanitarian aid.
Meanwhile
The mayor of Melitopol has been abducted by the Russians
for speaking out.
The airbase at Vasylkiv south of Kiev has been attacked.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Russia plans to stage a
'sham referendum' in the Russian-occupied southern city of Kherson in an
effort to show that people there want to break away from Ukraine.
President Zelensky said talks with Moscow show signs of
becoming more substantive and the Kremlin 'is moving away from ultimatums'.
11th March 2022 (day 16)
There are missile attacks on airfields at Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk
far to the west, and on residential buildings in the strategically important
city of Dnipro, which sits on the Dnieper River towards the east.
Click for Guardian report - Russia widens attack with airstrikes on western
Ukraine cities
Russian state media reported that the Ukrainian city of
Volnovakha to the north of the port of Mariupol had been captured by
Russian-backed separatist forces.
The Russian convoy to the NW of Kiev appears to be
fanning out in preparation for an attack on the capital.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine war: Large Russian convoy redeploys near Kyiv
10th March 2022 (day 15)
Comment
When we were children in the 1950s, and gosh that's about
70 years ago, we saw a lot of black and white film footage of WWII on TV;
this was repackaged as 'The World at War' in 1973. We knew all about Hitler,
appeasement and the murder of 6 million Jews. We saw cine film of towns in
France being 'liberated' by the allies, and often all that was left was
smoking ruins. We thought about the futility of war, structures destroyed
and lives lost.
About 1975 there was a civil war in Lebanon leading to
much destruction in Beirut; and more recently fighting in Syria with a
similar outcome, abetted by Russia. Once more we wondered what it is that
leads men to destroy homes, slaughter innocents and cause misery, when there
is enough to do combatting natural disasters such as earthquakes, famines,
floods, and epidemics.
And now it is Putin who has unleashed 'the dogs of war' -
shelling cities, destroying homes and killing innocent Ukrainian citizens,
simply because they wouldn't do what he told them to.
It seems history is repeating itself - the visits of
politicians such as President Macron valiantly attempting to dissuade Putin
from invasion, as did Neville Chamberlain try to dissuade Hitler;
appeasement over the invasion of Crimea, mirroring Hitler's invasion of
Austria and other regions; and now the reluctance of NATO nations to
confront Putin directly.
In 1939 Britain's red line was it's treaty with Poland.
Now the red line is any NATO country being attacked; then NATO could be
forced to act, possibly quite soon, but in the meantime the position seems
to be NATO forces will not operate in Ukraine whatever the bloodshed and use
of poison gas, for fear of Putin using nuclear weapons.
Reluctance to act is nothing new.
In 1884 Major-General Charles George Gordon had
sought help from British Prime Minister Gladstone to relieve Khartoum.
Gladstone was having none of it and refused help until eventually swayed by
public opinion and Queen Victoria, but by then it was too late, Khartoum
fell and Gordon was killed.
In WWII the USA reluctantly supplied arms to the UK but
it was not until the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour that the USA was forced
into the war.
Now the Russians are putting Ukrainian cities under siege
bombarding the population with artillery shells and rockets, causing
shortages of food and water, and cutting off electricity and gas making it
almost impossible for people to cook, keep warm and obtain medical
treatment. Schools and hospitals have been hit and possibly especially
targeted. This evening the use of poison gas to kill troops in the open and
civilians in basements and the underground is being discussed in the media.
There is a moral case to act but David Lammy (Labour) and
Bob Seely (Conservative) flagged to Putin on Newsnight that NATO would not
intervene militarily if Russia were to use poison gas in Ukraine.
You might have hoped the General Assembly of the UN would
vote to suspend Russia from the UN and send in a heavily armed humanitarian
peace keeping force to stop the conflict and render aid, but no sign of
that. And were that to fail you might have expected NATO to send in a 'peace
keeping' force as they did in Bosnia, but no sign of that either.
President Zelensky has invited help from the EU and NATO.
The EU is imposing sanctions, adjoining countries are taking in more than a
million refugees and some countries are providing humanitarian aid and in
some cases defensive weapons to help Ukrainians fight the powerful Russian
army. In contrast to Afghanistan, Ukrainians are putting up a strong
defence.
That said NATO and the US have been timid in their
response to Russia. NATO has said it will not put boots on the ground and
will not impose a no-fly zone. Putin seems to have been given the
green light to do whatever he wants including deployment of Chemical and
Thermobaric weapons to finish off Ukraine.
We can see that imposition of a no-fly zone might be
impractical at the present time but there are many other things that can be
done. For example General McMaster has suggested:-
-
Medium range SAMs to extend air defence;
-
Shore to ship missiles to counter Russia's ships in
the Black Sea;
-
Drones with sufficient payload to attack artillery
and rocket launchers;
-
and possibly the supply of aircraft.
Ukraine needs such weapons now if the tide is to be
turned otherwise we could be seeing a parallel with the fall of Khartoum and
the death of Gordon; (subsitute the city of Kiev and President Zelensky).
Today
The Foreign Affairs ministers of Russia and Ukraine met
in Turkey. No progress at all. Eventually the war will have to be concluded by fruitful
peace talk but who knows if that will be in weeks or months.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine war: No progress on ceasefire after
Kyiv-Moscow talks
Russia falsely accuses the USA and Ukraine of secretly
developing chemical weapons; inviting speculation Russia itself plans to use
Chemical weapons.
Click for
BBC report - Russia could launch chemical attack in Ukraine
Russians prevent Red Cross aid being delivered to Mariupol.
In an interview Lavrov says Russia willl not attack other countries
just as it is no attacking Ukraine.
Click for Euronews report
UK visa requirement relaxed for Ukrainian refugees with
passports.
9th March 2022 (day 14)
Zelensky wants more aircraft. Unclear why or what he is
doing with the ones he has got. Poles seem willing to donate 28 MIG-29s but
suggest these are sent via the US Ramstein Air Base in Germany presumably so
all three nations involved should Putin feel inclined to retaliate. Biden
and Germany having none of it, so the ball is back with the Poles. Ben
Wallace says the UK will support Poland whatever decision they make.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace makes
statement in UK Parliament. UK will send more
Next generation
Light Anti-tank Weapons (NLAW) and is considering sending
Starstreak man-portable surface to air missiles.
Russians continue to strike more civilian targets.
Some refugees are
evacuated for example from
Sumy in
north east Ukraine.
Rumours it will be Russian mothers who out Putin as more
and more discover their sons have died in the unlawful
invasion of Ukraine.
Note: the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
of 1992 was a memorandum prohibiting the Russian Federation, the United
Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or
economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of
other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus,
Kazakhstan and Ukraine had given up their nuclear weapons.
The Russian Foreign Ministry accuses Ukraine of having
some involvement with Chemical Weapons, which they may have invented as
pretext for Russian use of chemical weapons, as in Syria.
Click for
BBC report - West fears Russia could use non-conventional weapons
A huge bomb is dropped in Mariupol devastating a
maternity hospital.
Click for Sun report - Women and children ‘buried under rubble’ after
Russian airstrike destroys maternity hospital in Mariupol
Zelensky claims he will eventually get his no-fly zone
even if a million Ukrainians have to die first.
8th March 2022 (day 13)
The situation appears critical. Russian forces could soon
complete the encirclement of Kiev. The key port of Mariupol in the
south is under siege and heavy bombardment, and the important port of Odessa
in the south could soon come under attack. Many cities are being repeatedly
pulverised by Russian artillery and missiles. Refugees are streaming into
Poland and adjacent friendly countries.
Despite these setbacks Ukrainian forces are slowing the
advance and inflicting serious losses on the larger invading force.
We assume Ukraine needs more weapons to take
out artillery pieces and multiple rocket launchers, destroy the convoy to
the north of Kiev, and make life difficult for the Russian Navy preparing
for an attack on Odessa.
Others suggest peace talks are the way to go:-
Click for article - Searching for Peace in Ukraine by Stuart Rees
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP was on Sky News this morning.
Click for Sky News interview - War in Ukraine: Russia 'getting more
desperate'
Another Sky News quote:
Ukraine's president has said the Russian bombardment of
his country is like something from World War II after a child died from
dehydration in the besieged city of Mariupol.
Volodymyr Zelensky claims Russia has surrounded the port
and has deliberately cut off the water and food supply as well as
electricity.
Click
for Sky News YouTube broadcast by President Zelensky
There has been talk in the media of Poland gifting MIG29
fighters to Ukraine to be backfilled by US jets, but it appears nothing has
been decided because bureaucrats are 'arguing' over who should take such an
important decision.
General McMaster's interview yesterday seems to have been
moved from the Sky News website but it can still be found on YouTube. A
similar video in which McMaster adopts a slightly softer tone can be found
here:-
Click
to watch H.R. McMaster: 'I believe Ukraine can win the war' - FRANCE 24
English
Zelensky's address to the UK parliament at 5:00 pm contained nothing new but
he briefly asked for the continuation of sanctions and 'protection from the
air'. The fact the convoy north of Kiev has not been destroyed suggests
Ukraine may need more Drones, Medium range SAM, for example from France, and
aircraft from Poland - not forgetting food and water for besieged cities.
The media reports the deaths of three senior Russian officers:
-
General
Magomed Tushayev allegedly killed in an attack on Hostomel airport
on 26th February, though there is some dispute about this;
-
Major General
Andrei Sukhovetsky killed by a sniper near Mariupol on 3rd March;
-
Major General
Vitaly Gerasimov killed 7th March near Karkhiv.
7th March 2022 (day 12)
Shelling of civilians continues.
More discussion of safe corridors with Russia proposing
exit routes to Russia and Belarus. Few will want to go that way so that
Putin can claim he is liberating Ukrainian citizens.
Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab appeared on the BBC
Sunday Morning programme. He seems prepared to let the Russo/Ukraine war
drift on for months if not years likely resulting in tens of thousands of
innocent people being murdered by Putin - Dominic does not come across as a
man Putin will be scared of.
The British Embassy, which had retreated to Lviv,
finally leaves Ukraine. The government obviously has little confidence in
Ukrainian soldiers 'holding the line'.
No announcement but it looks like BBC reporter Clive Myrie who had been
in Kiev is safely back in UK.
Home Secretary Pretty Patel gets some bad publicity about
reacting slowly to the refugee crisis.
Punchy interview with retired American Lieutenant General
HD McMaster on Sky News in the evening. He seems to think politicians need
more backbone and resolve, and that a military solution will be required if
Putin is to be stopped.
Click
for Sky News Interview - Ukraine Invasion: 'Putin has failed already' says
former US National Security Adviser
It was announced President Zelensky would address
parliament by video link tomorrow at 5:00 pm.
6th March 2022 (day 11)
#Pray for Ukraine
The safe corridors opened yesterday to evacuate civilians were tested
again but few got away.
Putin continues to pursue the shelling and bombing of cities
following his illegal invasion of Ukraine. He said he had no plans to
invade; he lied. He calls the invasion a 'Specialised Military
Operation' but it is full scale war; he lied again.
He is now continuously shelling cities turning them into
rubble, killing civilians and destroying their homes.
Putin is a war
criminal and needs to be stopped, but NATO seems not prepared to use its
military power to protect civilians despite a desperate plea from President
Zelensky for help. As a result, we can expect thousands if not tens of
thousands to die in coming weeks.
NATO must be betting that is the least worst outcome
compared to a possible European war.
Without help, Kiev might be taken by the end of March and
its leadership either captured or murdered, assuming Putin is prepared to
turn Kiev into a pile of rubble. But that might be difficult for Putin to
explain to voters.
Putin is scared stiff ordinary Russians will find out
what he is doing. Police are arresting demonstrators, and the press has been
muzzled. Putin is increasingly shelling civilians hoping to break morale and
cause Ukrainians to lay down their arms before this turns into a long term
conflict and the Russian public discovers the truth about what he has been
doing.
President Zelensky keeps asking for a no-fly
zone and US, UK, and NATO officials are telling Putin they are not going to
create one, possibly weakening Ukraine's position; but for the moment that's
perhaps a reasonable position while most of the damage is being inflicted by
Russian artillery.
Propaganda, morale, the supply of material to Ukraine,
and the harrying of Russian supply lines will influence the outcome, and
there is no certainty that the larger Russian force will prevail.
Boris Johnson is meeting with Canadian Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau
and the Prime Minister of the Netherlands tomorrow and it will be
interesting to see what they have to say; click below for CBC report.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrives in Europe to meet with leaders on
military aid for Ukraine
Boris Johnson allegedly has a six point plan:-
- World leaders should mobilise an “international humanitarian
coalition” for Ukraine
- They should also support Ukraine “in its efforts to provide for its
own self-defence”
- Economic pressure on Russia should be ratcheted up
- The international community must resist Russia’s “creeping
normalisation” of its actions in Ukraine
- Diplomatic resolutions to the war must be pursued, but only with the
full participation of Ukraine’s legitimate government
- There should be a “rapid campaign to strengthen security and
resilience” among NATO countries
We'll have to wait and see what more practical steps can
be taken to help Ukraine in the shorter term.
Mastercard, Visa and American Express are
reducing their exposure in Russia, while others firms such as Coca Cola have
yet to decide.
The circulation in Russia of video footage of what is
happening in the Ukraine could possibly turn the public against Putin;
everyone can help by broadcasting accounts as widely as possible on social
media and the world wide web.
Many Russian Orthodox priests and deacons from around the
world have signed an open letter expressing their opposition to Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, challenging the Russian government and breaking with
the tacit support of the military action by church leadership in Moscow.
Perhaps churches will somehow affect the outcome. Pray for Ukraine.
5th March 2022 (day 10)
It's like a disaster movie; then you realise it's real
and Vladimir Putin is the reincarnation of Nazi Dictator Adolf Hitler. It is
his troops that should be leaving Ukraine, not refugees who are having to
flee for their lives leaving pulverised homes, and cities under siege
behind.
And we can't just blame Putin. His generals, and tens of
thousands of squaddies who have pulled the trigger unleashing shells and
missiles are equally to blame. They obviously have no conscience about
killing innocent men, women and children and destroying their homes; let's
hope they are brought to justice in due course as at the
Nuremberg trials.
Boris Johnson says many Russians are our friends, but
many are not. It would appear many older Russians have been brainwashed and
believe Putin's propaganda, while the younger generation cannot demonstrate
without fear of being arrested by the police. They do not yet have the
courage to rise up against the leadership as their ancestors did in 1917,
but as sanctions bite who knows what will happen.
Some Russians unhappy with Putin have already started
leaving Russia for Finland.
Click
for BBC report
Putin has warned Sweden and Finland not to join NATO, but
a consequence of his invasion of the Ukraine is that these countries may now
join the alliance.
Safe corridors were to be set up today to allow refugees
to leave the seaport of
Mariupol
and town of
Volnovakha to the north, but it sounds as though evacuation was
postponed due to continued shelling.
President Zelensky asked once again for a no-fly zone,
but Western leaders reiterated he could not have one. The Ukrainian
leadership appearing on TV is looking increasingly stressed, and one wonders
how long the cities will be able to hold out.
The invasion of
Singapore was a very close run thing, with the British surrendering only
days before Japanese might have had to give up. So it's possible Ukraine
might yet survive as an independent state if logistic supplies from the West
can be maintained and the Russian logistics disrupted.
Someone phoning on the Radio 4 programme 'Any Answers'
today said Putin wanted to capture the
Bread Basket of Europe and Ukrainian Hi-Tech companies to complement
Russia's waning petroleum business, but
many are leaving and the countryside will likely be defended by guerilla
fighters.
Given his brutality, Vladimir Putin's name is likely to
go down in history alongside those of Adolf Hitler and Vlad the impaler.
From now on he won't be able to travel outside the Russian Federation.
4th March 2022 (day 9)
Refugees continue to stream to the West.
Putin working very hard to prevent the Russian population
finding out what he is doing. Facebook, Twitter and Independent News
agencies closed down. Fifteen year prison sentence introduced for
circulating 'fake news'.
Report emerges of Sky News team narrowly surviving an
attack while returning to Kiev.
Click for Sky News report - Sky News team's harrowing account of their
violent ambush in Ukraine this week
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power station captured by Russians. Damage to nearby
buildings but not the six reactors.
Click for Sky News story
3rd March 2022 (day 8)
The aggressive Russian attack on Ukraine, continues into
an 8th day. After making limited progress Russia has increased shelling and
bombing of cities causing widespread damage and loss of life. Residential
areas, schools and hospitals are said to have been hit.
It beggars believe that in the 21st century one man can
be responsible for so much death and destruction.
The southern the port of Kherson with a population of
280,000 is reported to have fallen to the 'Nazi' invaders, while Kharkov has
come under very heavy fire.
Last night we wondered if Ukraine was doomed, but this
morning we are less sure. Perhaps it is Putin who is doomed, though in the
short term he may need to be able to claim some sort of victory in order to
stop the war.
Professor
Gwythian Prins who is a member of the Chief of the Defence Staff's
Strategy Advisory Panel spoke for ten minutes on Radio 5 this morning.
To
listen - click for BBC sounds and fast forward +25 minutes
Note: you may need to sign in.
Gywthian Prins makes a number of interesting assertions.
Under article 353 of the Criminal Code Of The Russian Federation,
quote:
Chapter 34.
Crimes Against Peace and Mankind's Security
Article 353. Planning, Preparing, Unleashing, or
Waging on Aggressive War
1. Planning, preparing, or unleashing an aggressive
war shall be punishable by deprivation of liberty for a term of seven to
fifteen years.
2. Waging an aggressive war shall be punishable by
deprivation of liberty for a term of 10 to 20 years.
It would seem the Russian leadership should rapidly remove President
Putin and put him on trial.
Other governments are planning to hold Putin personally
responsible for war crimes and those in his chain of command, including
officers and men.
In his 10 minute briefing Gwythian Prins made the following points.
-
Russian plan B, Blitzkrieg, has failed due to heroic
resistance.
-
Russia is reverting to plan A, Rubblisation of
cities, beginning with Mariupol, Kherson in the south and Kharkiv in the
north.
-
Heavy attacks in Kharkiv are intended to demoralise
the resistance in Kiev.
-
The stalling snake column north of Kiev has an
awesome
capability but is suffering logistic problems, command failure resulting
in use of insecure lines, and low morale amongst conscripts whose
mothers are revolting over their use as cannon fodder.
-
The Russian plan seem to be to cut Ukraine in half
from north to south.
-
Very soon a large scale amphibious landing by
professional Russian Naval infantry can be expected around Odessa in the
south.
Should street fighting develop, history suggests 5 attackers could be
killed for every defender.
Professor Gwythian Prins goes on to say that were the
Russian forces initially victorious, keeping the country under control might
require 600,000 troops to subdue guerilla fighters which Russia does not
have.
There were talks between Russia and Ukraine in Belarus.
Another meeting is planned.
Click for DW news report
According to the BBC the Prime Minister of Hungary has offered to host peace
talks
Meanwhile it seems likely Putin will press home his
attacks killing innocent men, women and children and turning more cities and
towns into rubble.
The International Paralympic Committee did a U turn and
banned Belarus and Russia from the Winter Paralympics in China.
2nd March 2022 (day 7)
The news on the radio this morning is grim. Attacks are
increasing on Kharkiv where a lot of damage was caused yesterday and
paratroopers are now probing the defences, while a large armoured column is
continuing its movement towards Kiev, with the likely aim of surrounding the
city and putting it under siege.
Click for latest BBC report
The PM and other commentators have all ruled out a 'no
fly zone' for fear of starting a war with Russia. Consequently Ukraine is
likely to be devastated and President Kelensky either killed or taken
prisoner to stand trial in Moscow on trumped up charges.
Putin may well then turn his attention to Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania which are surrounded by Belarus and Russia. Will NATO be
prepared to defend these Baltic countries despite threats of nuclear war, or
will Western leaders back down once again?
Click this link to view a simple map of Europe showing
the location of the Baltic States.
https://www.freeworldmaps.net/printable/europe/europe_countries.jpg
Stockholm, March 2 (Reuters) - Four Russian fighter jets briefly entered
Swedish territory over the Baltic Sea on Wednesday, the Swedish Armed Forces
said, sparking a swift condemnation from Sweden's defence minister. On
Sunday Sweden said it would send military aid, including 5,000 anti-tank
weapons to Ukraine, the first time since 1939 that Sweden has sent weapons
to a country at war.
The
UN General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution demanding that
Russia immediately end its military operations in Ukraine.
A total of 141 (out of 193) countries voted in favour of the resolution,
which reaffirms Ukrainian sovereignty, independence and territorial
integrity.
To quote from the UN website:
The resolution demands that Russia 'immediately, completely and
unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of
Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.'
It was sponsored by more than 90 countries and needed a two-thirds majority
in the Assembly to pass.
Five countries - Belarus, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (more
commonly known as North Korea) Eritrea, Russia and Syria - voted against it,
while 35 abstained.
The question is will the UN do anything about it.
The International
Criminal Court is opening an investigation into war crimes in Ukraine.
It is satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both
alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed. Given
the expansion of the conflict in recent days, it is the intention that this
investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes that are committed
by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine.
1st March 2022 (day 6)
We wake up thinking the Russian invasion of Ukraine and
the misery inflicted on the innocent population was a nightmare, but it's
real and it sounds as though things are going to get a lot worse.
President Zelensky of Ukraine addresses the European
Parliament and asks for fast track membership of the EU. This normally takes
years; meanwhile Putin will likely task his forces to destroy Kiev and then
send Special Forces into the rubble to get Kelensky, should he survive the
artillery barrage.
Boris Johnson visits Poland and Estonia to show support
for NATO allies.
At a news conference with the Estonian prime minister and
the Nato secretary-general in the Estonian capital Tallinn he said the
international community must do everything it can to support Ukrainians, but
said 'we will not fight Russian forces in Ukraine'. He ruled out a no-fly
zone over the country which Ukraine had sought to protect civilians. Boris
and Biden are either scared of Putin or biding their time.
28th February 2022 (day 5)
FIFA suspends Russia from Football tournaments.
Start of UN General Assembly debate
involving all 193 members. This may go on for several days. Ukrainian
speaker asks if members ever voted to elect the Russian Federation to the
Security Council after break up of the USSR - no one put their hand up. Could
it be there will be a voted to suspend Russia from the Security Council?
Talks held between Ukraine and Russia
and they agree to meet again. Worryingly during the talks Russia steps up
indiscriminate shelling and missile attacks. Rumoured use of thermo-baric and
cluster bombs.
An armoured column 40 miles long and 3 vehicles abreast
is seen 17 miles to the north of Kiev.
27th February 2022 (day 4)
The time has clearly come for Russian men and women of
goodwill to step up and retire President Putin to his Dacha. He is clearly
mentally unstable and has become unfit to govern.
This week the evil tyrant has the blood of ten thousand
men, women and children on his hands and he is a clear and present danger
not only to Russia but the whole of civilisation.
Today
Russian missiles destroyed an oil terminal south of Kiev
and a natural gas pipeline, but contrary to expectations troops have not
entered Kiev.
Ukrainian forces say they have repelled an attack on the
country's second city Kharkiv after fierce clashes with Russian forces.
Click for BBC report - Ukraine invasion: Kharkiv residents describe intense
battle to defend city
About 3 pm Sky News broadcast a news conference by the
Ukraine Foreign Affairs minister Dmytro Kuleba. He cited a lot of damage to
the Russian invasion force and said there could soon be talks with Russia on
the border between Ukraine and Belarus.
This twitter link may carry the news conference:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1497947576376733696
Clearly worried about financial sanctions, resulting from
his invasion of Ukraine, Putin has ordered his generals and Nuclear
Deterrent to a high state of alert. Putin is paranoid and must be stopped.
Click for BBC report
26th February 2022 (day 3)
Russians forces began surrounding Kiev. Looking back this had been
forecast by 'The Times' on 15th February 2022. To quote:
The are 100 battalion tactical groups massed within
striking distance of Ukraine amounting to 60% of Russia's ground combat
power.
US reports suggest that Russia has a plan to invade
Ukraine from the east and the north simultaneously with the intention of
surrounding Kiev within one to 2 days.
There were anti Putin demonstrations in cities around the
world, but in Russia these demonstrators were quickly arrested. Russian
newspapers have been told not to refer to the invasion as a war.
Russia is attempting to block Facebook and Twitter in order to prevent the
Russian public learning what is going on.
Germany has offered to supply Ukraine with 1,000 ant-tank
missiles and 500 Javelin surface to air shoulder launch weapons.
The EU is now talking about blocking some Russian banks
from the SWIFT banking system.
25th February 2022 (day 2)
The Russian Federation, which has the presidency,
vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on Friday that would have
demanded that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all
troops. China, India and the UAE abstained. The UN continues to be a
'toothless' organisation.
UK Secretary of State for Defence Ben Wallace admits on
Radio 5 that NATO has no plans to put troops into Ukraine or create a No Fly
zone because politicians are fearful about starting WWIII.
The PM is asking for Russia to be removed from the SWIFT
banking system but so far the EU is not keen.
Today, it seems very much as though the appeasement of
Adolf Hitler by Neville Chamberlain is being repeated in a modern setting.
Nevertheless Ukraine is mounting a fierce defence and
there is talk of fighting to the death.
24th February 2022 (day 1)
Russian forces cross border into Ukraine
On the 24th February 2022 Russian troops launched an
invasion of Ukraine which President Vladimir
Putin
described as a 'Specialised Military Operation'.
Putin clearly wants to 'decapitate' the leadership and
impose a puppet government under the control of Moscow.
Click for Reuter's report - Russia invades Ukraine in Europe's 'darkest
hours' since WWII
Let's be clear it is war and probably tens if not
hundreds of thousands of innocent people are going to die, and many more are
going to be crippled.
Putin follows in the footsteps of
Adolf
Hitler and the Nazis some 85 years ago and some fear history will repeat
itself if Putin is not stopped.
Stalin was the last Russian leader to tread a similar
path when he connived with Hitler and the Nazis to invade Eastern Poland in
1939 starting the Second World War. Russia was responsible for the mass
execution of Polish Officers in 1940 dubbed the Katyn massacre - it is
doubtful the Poles will want to see Russians back on their border.
When Hitler marched into
Austria help was sought from the British government but non was
forthcoming. Now Ukraine is calling for help and it will be interesting to
see how NATO and its politicians respond other than by ineffective words and
paper rustling.
The UN is a paper tiger and little can be done there
unless rapid action is taken to change its constitution and expel the Russia
Federation.
The evil Putin is 69 years old and in 2020 effectively
elected himself president for life but the Russians know how to deal with
troublesome people, for example by putting radioactive Polonium in their
tea, and nerve agents on door handles - if this war goes wrong perhaps Putin
too will be quickly removed by those who had once supported him.
22nd February 2022
Prior to the invasion of Ukraine
It had been almost two years since the attention of the
world was first drawn to the COVID-19 virus which originated in Wuhan China
and rapidly spread around the world, inducing pneumonia, and killing
millions of people. The development of the Astrazeneca and Pfizer vaccines
provided a way out of the pandemic and on 21st February 2022 the PM
announced the removal of all legal restrictions in England.
We had 'tracked' events with our blog Coronavirus
(COVID-19) epidemic weekly update for Malvern Seniors but now the
usefulness of that is declining we will be returning to our blog on Politics
and World events.
Four topics have hit the headlines in recent months:-
Partygate
An attempt by the left wing to destabilise the Tory
government and to get Prime Minister Boris Johnson to resign. Photos of
social gatherings at Downing Street a year ago, possibly in contravention of
COVID legal restrictions were drip fed by the press. Some speculate that ex
Tory adviser Dominic Cummings might be behind the leaks, seeking revenge for
being sacked by the PM in November 2021.
On 8th December 2021 the PM asked the Cabinet Secretary
to investigate the allegations and report back, but as he himself had been
involved Civil Servant Sue Gray took over the investigation. She in turn
passed information to the Police who have issued questionnaires to some 50
or so individuals; who could face a fine if they clearly broke the COVID
lockdown rules.
Sue Gray has published an
update on her investigation but the final report may be delayed until
the Police investigation is complete.
The media is waiting with bated breath to see if the PM
is fined for breaking his own rules!
National insurance increase
National Insurance payments are increasing in April 2022,
to fund social care in England and help the NHS recover after the pandemic.
The government hope the tax will bring in £12Bn but its
not clear exactly how the money will be spent. Read this BBC report and see
if you are any the wiser.
Click for BBC report - National Insurance: What's the new Health and Social
Care tax and what will it cost me?
The Labour party say the tax will hit 'hard pressed'
working families.
Successive governments have failed to come to grips with
the problem of care for the elderly who can no longer look after themselves.
There is little time left for this government to make much headway so if Sir
Kier Starmer wins the next election he could inherit the challenge of
creating a National Care Service.
Energy prices
In February 2020 at the start of the Coronavirus pandemic
petrol was £1.23 a litre. Very few vehicles were on the road that year and
prices fell to £1.11 a litre in the following November.
During 2021 as COVID restrictions began to relax, and
traffic increased, the price of petrol rose to £1.48 a litre.
The increasing possibility of war between Russia and
Ukraine is forcing up the price of oil and pundits are suggesting petrol
could soon rise to £1.70 a litre.
The media has heralded a steep increase in energy prices
for some weeks, but the reality was brought home to us by Scottish and
Southern Energy raising our direct debits by 45% for electricity and 65% for
gas. Despite government plans to soften the burden for some, for example by
averaging prices over 5 years, such increases will be a severe burden for
those on tight budgets.
War between Russia and the Ukraine will only make matters
worse; we could be in for a very difficult year.
Ukraine conflict
After WWI and the establishment of Communism in Russia,
Ukraine became one of the Soviet Socialist Republics. In broad terms, in the
1950s Kruschev gave Ukraine a degree of independence. With the collapse of
the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became a truly independent state.
Ukraine remained aligned to Russia but began to look
increasingly westwards. In 2014 Putin was unhappy with the pro-western
leadership and invaded the Crimea, also supporting rebels in the Russian
speaking eastern Donbass region of Ukraine where fighting has continued ever
since.
Russian troops started building up near Ukraine's eastern
border once again in April 2021 raising concerns and peace keeping talks.
Click
for DW News report 20th April 2021
In October 2021, Russia began moving more troops and
military equipment near the border with Ukraine, reigniting concerns over a
potential invasion.
Russian troops then moved into Belarus along Ukraine's
northern border further raising concerns of an invasion.
Russian troops and equipment are now being inserted into
the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine, after women and children were
bussed out, so it would appear Putin has given the green light for the
invasion to begin.
Click for Channel News Asia:-
Commentary: How Putin took Europe to the brink of war - again
President Biden has said the USA will not put boots on
the ground and to date only financial sanctions are being floated by world
leaders. Putin will see this as being given the green light.
The situation sadly mirrors the rise of Hitler leading to
WWII.
Only the threat of a NATO imposed no fly zone and air
attacks on Russian forces in Ukraine will cause Putin to back down.
Appendix: Background to the conflict
It's sad that Putin does not love his neighbour as
himself, and has chosen to invade Ukraine leading to the deaths of upwards
of 100,000 soldiers of the Russian Federation, and perhaps as many Ukrainian
soldiers and civilians
Putin's plan A was for a lightning strike
to take the capital Kiev and install a puppet government. That failed
due to the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian military who chose to fight,
unlike the people of
Afghanistan who surrendered to the Taliban. Plan B was to pound towns and cities
into rubble in order to break the will of the Ukrainian
people.
Plan C is to annex as much of
eastern Ukraine as possible and establish at minimum a land corridor between
the Russian border and The Crimea taking in the ports of Mariupol,
Berdyansk, on the Sea of Azov, the city of Melitopol, and Kherson up to the
east bank of the river Dnieper.
Apart from supplying 'defensive' weapons, NATO has been
keen not to get directly involved, and so far has ruled out boots on the
ground and a 'no-fly' zone, in order to avoid WWIII and the possibility of
nuclear oblivion.
Whilst there are no NATO Combat Air Patrols enforcing a
'no-fly zone', sorties of Russian fixed wing aircraft and helicopters have been
suppressed by short and medium range ground based air
defences.
Ukraine continues to seek stronger air defences to
counter Russian drone and missile strikes on its cities and power infrastructure.
Iran is supplying large numbers of Shahed drones and
could yet supply Putin with missiles.
As the conflict has gone on, and Ukraine has shown it's
will and ability to fight, NATO has become bolder and is now said to be quietly
supplying arms to Ukraine on a massive scale.
The late arrival of accurate HIMARS multiple launch
rocket systems has enabled Ukraine to gradually weaken the stronger Russian
Force by destroying railway track, command posts and ammunition stockpiles.
Putin was over-confident at the start and miscalculated the resistance
of the Ukrainian people. He assumed Ukraine would crumble in a matter of weeks, just as Hitler's
blitzkrieg succeeded in capturing large parts of Europe. He was wrong.
Bogged down in this war Putin has ordered mobilisation of
an additional 300,000 troops to replace losses and bolster defences. Rumour
has it 150,000 have already been sent to Ukraine and 150,000 are undergoing
further training. This should make a difference, despite being poorly
equipped and led.
Around Christmas 2022 there were rumours Putin could
attempt to call up 500,000 more men to break the deadlock.
Putin has signed documents annexing the captured regions in the east and
south of Ukraine into the Russian Federation, and is attempting to Russify
the captive population.
Ukraine has pushed back the Russians out of Kharkiv and
Kherson (on the west side of the river Dnieper) and had been pressing
the Russians around Svatove and Kreminna to the north. However the Russians
are now counter-attacking.
The Ukrainian leadership had hoped to push the Russian
Armed Forces out of all Ukrainian territory including Crimea, subject to greater support from the West.
Russia on the other hand has been using conscripts to
build defences in the remaining occupied regions comprising rows of 'dragon's teeth' concrete blocks, minefields
and trenches,
signifying Putin has no intention to give occupied land up.
Putin is rumoured to have ordered the taking of the
remainder of the Donetsk region which may partly explain attacks on Bakhmut
which lies and the main road to Kramatorsk.
Putin shows no sign of offering concessions. There have
been many waves of missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure causing immense hardship to the
civilian population. Russian Armed Forces continue to terrorise civilians by shelling cities, towns,
and villages.
It looks like Putin still wants to capture the
whole of Ukraine and absorb it back into the Russian Federation, with a
complete disregard for Russian casualties and Ukrainian civilians.
Russian troops had been training in Belarus, and the
Belarus Armed Forces had been mobilised. Large numbers of Russian trucks,
troops and armoured vehicles had been arriving in Belarus by rail. Now it
could be this was either for
training, a diversion to attract the Ukraine Armed Forces away from other
areas, or it could be Putin planned to launch attacks on Kiev from Belarus
and Kharkiv from Belgorod. By 2024 that threat had diminished.
So far NATO and the US have largely withheld
long-range weapons
capable of attacking targets in Russia, but there are increasing reports of
fires at Russian military related facilities suggesting possible operations
by Special Forces.
As of December 2022 both sides thought they could win, so
ity was thought the
fighting could go on for months or even years until both sides tired, or ran out of
munitions.
Commentary from 2023 and 2024
Some eight months on from the start of Ukraine's failed Spring Campaign
(beginning about 6th June 2023) it was clear Russia has been able to hang-on to most of
the territory it captured in 2022. This had come at great cost to Moscow with the
Russian army suffering thousands if not tens of thousands of casualties,
loss of hundreds of tanks, and many more artillery pieces.
Despite losses, the media reports Russia is now on the front foot and
Ukraine has had to fall back to defensive positions.
The supply of munitions from North Korea, drones from Iran, continued
recruitment into the Russian army, the stepping up Russia's defense budget
and putting the economy on a war footing has made it possible for Russia to
defeat Ukraine, now that aid from the US has faltered and the UAF is having difficulty replacing
monstrous casualties.
'Rumblings' from the US Presidential Election campaign suggest a weakening
of resolve on the Republican side which could mean the Ukraine-Russia War
continuing through 2024 leading to a Putin Victory in 2025.
The present US Secretary of Defense
Lloyd
Austin, who has been a strong supporter of Ukraine, has prostate cancer
and could be forced to step down though either illness or Biden losing the
US presidency in November 2024.
On the ground, the UAF had been only 30Km away from Russia's important
logistics' hub at Tokmak, but Russia has mounted a counter-offensive and is
re-occupying Robotyne likely ruling out any Ukrainian attempt to push
towards Tokmak and Crimea in 2024.
Russia has everything to play for in 2024. The survival of Ukraine as an
independant nation will
depend on the resolve and actions of politicians in the West; which is an
extremely worrying thought as many seem to be half-asleep to the threat, and
all politicians are mostly talk and little action.
We have to ask who has emerged as leader of Ukraine's allies?
Going into 2024
The war can seemingly only be ended by surrender of
Ukraine or a negotiated settlement.
Summary of Links
What do others think
Here are some links to what other people have been saying on Twitter,
particularly at the start of the conflict:
Lawrence Freedman
Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London
Ben Wallace MP Secretary of State for Defence
Tobias Ellwood
MP Chair of Defence Select Committee
Tom Tugendhat
MP Chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee
Hanna Liubakova
Journalist in Minsk Belarus
Dymitro Kuleba
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine
International Committee
Red Cross
WarMonitor
Don't know who he is, but provides regular short reports on progress at the
front.
Tim White
Journalist monitoring daily events in Ukraine
 Sitreps on Twitter
Many sources can be found on Twitter providing an insight into what might
be going on, adding to the somewhat limited reports from BBC and Sky
News. Here are a few:-
Institute for
the Study of War a policy research organization in Washington
Jomini of the West
Unsure who he is; in early days had occasionally produced interesting
summaries but no updates in recent months.
Phillips P
OBrien Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrew.
Mick Ryan
retired Australian military
Ministry of Defence
UK
Hint: some of the Ukraine war maps on Twitter are too small to read.
Came across a tip to right click and open the image in a new tab which makes
it bigger; then clicking on the map can make it bigger still. Use scroll
bars to move around the map. This works on Windows 10 Desktop PC making
some reports more legible.
Articles on Substack
Phillips P
OBrien, Professor of Strategic Studies, University St Andrew, publishes
newsletters on how the war is developing and speculates on what might happen
next.
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/
Lawrence Freedman, Professor of War Studies, King's College, London and his
son Sam occasionally write about politics and Ukraine.
https://samf.substack.com/
Photos of damaged equipment on Twitter
Amazing to see damage caused to tanks and AFV.
Rob Lee
Ukraine Weapons
Tracker
Other resources
About offering rooms to refugees
Homes for
Ukraine webpage
A picture of the war on Wikipedia
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Wikipedia)
Maps
Where on earth are these Ukrainian (and Russian places) with strange
sounding names. Do let us know if you have found better maps.
View a simple map of Europe showing the location of the Baltic States:
https://www.freeworldmaps.net/printable/europe/europe_countries.jpg
More detailed information about towns and cities in Ukraine
can be found on this map:
Current state of the
Russian Invasion to 10th March 2022
Bing maps are an excellent place to find locations in Ukraine and Russia:
https://www.bing.com/maps
Maps combined with situation reports
Some map resources are linked to situation reports:-
Zoomable maps of Ukraine war by @War_Mapper and hosted by
https://soar.earth. Click link to choose
from most recent maps:-
https://soar.earth/explore?sort=most-recent
On the MILITARY LAND website homepage you will find links
to Invasion Day summaries which have detailed maps that can either be
enlarged or viewed through a magnifier feature:-
Click for
militaryland.net website homepage
The Institute for the Study of War
website carries a more detailed analysis but less detailed maps; daily
updates, a useful source.
Click for the
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) website
News media
Ukraine Government
Portal (English)
Ministry of Defence
of Ukraine website
Ukrayinski Pravda on-line Newspaper
The Kyiv Independent Newspaper
Defence
Industry of Ukraine (War with Russia)
BBC News
Sky News
DAILY KOS
hash tag Ukraine stories
Aljazeera Ukraine war news
CNN about Russian Invasion of Ukraine
Fox News about Ukraine
Radio Free Europe website
Washington Post
website war in Ukraine section
Foreign Policy website the Ukraine Russia border crisis
Associated
Press website Russia Ukraine war
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The interpretations and opinions expressed are our own.
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